Kindle Fire HD hurts Microsoft more than Apple

After yesterday’s Kindle Fire HD announcements from Amazon, a reader reminded me of a prediction I made at the start of the year: “If Apple gives up its position of industry leadership in 2012 the only company capable of assuming that role is Amazon.com.” I stand by those words — Amazon is really bringing the fight to Apple — but the most important part is “if Apple gives up its position” which it clearly hasn’t, at least not yet. The real loser here, in fact, is not Apple but Microsoft.

I could be wrong about this but I don’t recall any pundits (me included) predicting that Amazon would yesterday introduce a larger format tablet, […]

By |September 7th, 2012|2012, Media, Predictions, Product Development, Tablets|72 Comments
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Windows 8, Users 0?

Windows 8 is just over a month from hitting the market and my sense is that this initial release, at least, will be at best controversial and at worst a failure. Microsoft is simply trying to change too many things at once.

What we have here is the Microsoft Bob effect, where change runs amuck simply because it can, compounded in this case by a sense of panic in Redmond. Microsoft so desperately need Windows 8 to be a huge success that they’ve fiddled it into a likely failure.

Microsoft Bob, if you don’t remember its fleeting passage in 1995, was a so-called social interface for Windows intended to be used by novices. The idea was that Bob should be so intuitive as to […]

By |August 30th, 2012|2012, Companies, Computing, Tablets, Technology|118 Comments
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Life after the personal computer

A reader pointed out to me this week that the personal computer is well over 30 years old — a number that has real consequence if you are familiar with my work. He remembered I predicted in 1992 that PCs as we knew them would be dead by now. I was obviously a little off in my timing. But only a little off. PCs are still doomed and their end will come quicker than you think.

Here’s what I wrote in my book Accidental Empires in 1992:

It takes society thirty years, more or less, to absorb a new information technology into daily life. It took about that long to turn movable type into books in the […]

By |June 30th, 2012|2012, Computing, Gadgets, Internet, Phones, Predictions, Software, Tablets|152 Comments
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Surface tablet intro no Moses event for Microsoft

Microsoft’s Hollywood announcement Monday of its two Surface tablet computers was a tactical triumph but had no strategic value for the world’s largest software company because the event left too many questions unanswered. If I were to guess what was on Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer’s mind it was simply to beat next week’s expected announcement of a Google brand tablet running Android. Microsoft, already playing catch-up to Apple’s iPad, did not want to be seen as following Google, too. So they held an event that was all style and no substance at all.

This is not to say that Microsoft shouldn’t make a tablet and couldn’t make a good one, but this particular event proved almost […]

By |June 20th, 2012|2012, Business, Companies, Computing, Gadgets, Tablets, Technology|108 Comments
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The dumbing down of Windows 8

Beta versions of Windows 8 this week lost their nifty Aero user interface, which Microsoft’s top user interface guy now calls “cheesy” and “dated,” though two weeks ago he apparently loved it. Developers are scratching their heads over this UI flatification of what’s supposed to become the world’s most popular operating system. But there’s no confusion at my house: Aero won’t run on a phone.

Look at the illustration to the left. It shows projected growth in Internet devices.  Keep in mind while reading this that a PC lasts at least three years, a phone lasts 18 months and nobody knows yet how long the average tablet will be around but I’ll guess two […]

By |May 30th, 2012|2012, Business, Companies, Computing, Gadgets, Technology|88 Comments
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