Bill Gates and the non-prediction prediction

bill-gates-steve-ballmer-microsoftFollowing my #1 prediction yesterday of dire consequences in 2014 for Microsoft some readers challenged me to say what should happen this year in Redmond to right the ship. Is it even possible? So here’s my answer which isn’t in the form of a prediction because I doubt that it will actually happen. But if it actually does come to pass, well then I told you so.

At this point in Microsoft’s history the only CEO who could follow Steve Ballmer and be more or less guaranteed to be successful is Bill Gates. I think Bill should take back his old job for awhile.

This line of thinking was suggested to me, by the way, […]

By |January 9th, 2014|2014, Companies, People, Software|63 Comments
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Ten technology predictions for 2014

steve_ballmerHere is my first of two prediction columns for 2014. There’s just too much for it all to fit in one column. My neighbor and good friend Avram Miller wrote a predictions column this year that’s quite good and you might want to read it before this one. We discuss some of the same things though of course Avram and I occasionally agree to disagree.

This column is mainly about business predictions for 2014 while the follow-up column will be more about products and technologies.

#1 — Microsoft gets worse before it gets better. Ford CEO Alan Mulally, who already owns a home in Seattle, announced just today that he is staying with Ford through […]

By |January 8th, 2014|2014, Breaking News, Predictions|51 Comments
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Where’s that Black Swan when we need one?

BlackSwanThis was supposed to be my 2014 predictions column but the volume of correspondence following my call for predictions last week was such that I suspect it will be the first of three prediction columns with my actual predictions occupying columns two and three. This column is about the broader subject of how to predict.

I’ve written at least once before on How to Predict the Future. Do a search on that string and an old PBS column will float to the surface. All of that still applies but in this column I want to look somewhat deeper at the motivations and methods of predictors whether they actually know what they are doing or not.

Last week […]

By |January 8th, 2014|2014, Industry, Predictions|39 Comments
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A Tree Falls in Reston

yayaThere’s an adage I’ve heard repeated many times that on their deathbed nobody ever wished they had spent more time at work. Well last week right after telling me from memory her Social Security number and less than 24 hours before her final breath, my Mom did just that.

“I so enjoyed my career at the Bureau of Labor Statistics,” she said. “I wish I had worked there longer.”

My Mom, an economist and librarian who died on New Year’s Day, was a nerd.

She might not have identified herself as such, but she was definitely a nerd.

This lady took no prisoners. Ideas and words were important to her. Mastering concepts, too. At her dinner table you had […]

By |January 6th, 2014|2014, Family, Health, People|76 Comments
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Call for 2014 predictions!

crystalballUpdate January 2, 2014 — My Mom died last night, cleverly extending at least her financial existence into another tax year, so I haven’t been able to get to my 2014 predictions as promised. I’m headed home on Friday so look for the predictions column sometime over the weekend, thanks.

As some of you may recall I’ve been helping my sister care for our 89 year-old mother during an especially difficult period of her life, so if I haven’t been posting quite so much lately that’s why. But readers have been pestering me, nevertheless, for my annual column of predictions for the new year. And why not? But this time I really need your suggestions, which […]

By |December 29th, 2013|2013, Predictions|171 Comments
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