But first a look back at Bob’s predictions for 2014

2014backwardsThis is the time of year when when I typically write my technology predictions, an annual exercise in ego and humiliation I’ve been doing for about a dozen years. Historically I’ve been around 70 percent correct, which is more accurate than a random walk and therefore maybe — maybe — worth reading. You decide. But first let’s look back at my predictions from a year ago to see how I did. Understand that I’m the only pundit who actually reviews his previous year’s predictions. If only I could be a weasel like those other guys!

#1 — Microsoft gets worse before it gets better.

MISS — Satya Nadella  […]

By |January 9th, 2015|2015, Predictions|52 Comments
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Can it be that time already? Call for 2015 predictions!

FullSizeRenderThe Cringelys are back from Christmas in Hawaii and so I’m back to work. Alaska Airlines changed our flight to Kona in August but either never told Orbitz or Orbitz wasn’t listening so we got to the San Jose Airport 3.5 hours earlier than we needed to, having left Santa Rosa at 2AM. Note the tired eyes. Note, too, the rubber ducky the kids found as part of an airport promotion. Not only did they get $10 worth of candy, they won the grand prize GoPro camera! 

It’s time for my annual predictions for the new year, which I’ll publish I suppose on Friday. So if you have any wacky ideas please throw them into […]

By |December 30th, 2014|2014, Predictions|193 Comments
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Executive ego and the Sony Pictures network hack

sonyhackReaders have been asking me to write about the recent network hack at Sony Pictures Entertainment. If you run a company like Sony Pictures it has to be tough to see your company secrets stolen all at once — salaries, scripts, and Social Security numbers all revealed along with a pre-release HD copy of Annie, not to mention an entire database of unhappy Sony employees who want to work anywhere Adam Sandler doesn’t. But frankly my dear I don’t give a damn about any of that so let’s cut to the heart of this problem which really comes down to executive privilege. Sony was hacked because some president or vice-president or division head […]

By |December 10th, 2014|2014, Business, Privacy and Security|63 Comments
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TV 3.0 is already here

PhilcoRetroTVEthernet inventor Bob Metcalfe, when I worked for him 20 years ago, taught me that we tend to over-estimate change in the short term and under-estimate it in the long term. So it can be pretty obvious what is coming but not at all obvious when. And what we know about the when of it is that making money from new technologies is often a matter of investing right before that bend upward in the hockey stick of exponential change.

We all know television is bound to enter a new era sooner or later. Heck, I’ve written dozens of columns on the subject over my 17 years in this job. But this is the first time […]

By |December 1st, 2014|2014, Internet, Media|103 Comments
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How to fix IBM

IBMGiven IBM’s earnings miss last week and the impact it had on company shares I thought rather than just criticizing the company it might make better sense to consolidate my ideas for how to fix IBM. Here they are.

Early in his tenure as CEO, Sam Palmisano made changes that created IBM’s problems today. IBM customers are buying fewer products and services. Revenue has dropped each quarter for the past ten. Sam’s changes alienated IBM customers, many of whom are ending what has been in many cases a multi-decade relationship. No amount of earnings promises, no amount of financial engineering, will fix this problem.

IBM forgot the most important part of running a business. While shareholder value […]

By |October 27th, 2014|2014, Business, Companies, strategy|149 Comments
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