Final 2014 prediction: the end of the PC as we knew it

cook-jobsWe’re generally a Macintosh shop here in Santa Rosa. I have Windows and Linux PCs, too, but most of the heavy lifting is done on Macs. Next Wednesday I’m expecting a delivery from B&H Photo (no tax and free shipping!) of four new iMacs plus some software totaling $5,407. I fully expect these to be the last personal computers I will ever buy.

How’s that for a 2014 prediction?

Moore’s Law doubles the performance of computers every couple of years and my old rule of thumb was that most people who make their living with computers are unwilling to be more than two generations behind, so that means no more than four years between new PCs. And […]

By |January 10th, 2014|2014, Business, Companies, Computing, Phones, Predictions, Software|122 Comments
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Ten technology predictions for 2014

steve_ballmerHere is my first of two prediction columns for 2014. There’s just too much for it all to fit in one column. My neighbor and good friend Avram Miller wrote a predictions column this year that’s quite good and you might want to read it before this one. We discuss some of the same things though of course Avram and I occasionally agree to disagree.

This column is mainly about business predictions for 2014 while the follow-up column will be more about products and technologies.

#1 — Microsoft gets worse before it gets better. Ford CEO Alan Mulally, who already owns a home in Seattle, announced just today that he is staying with Ford through […]

By |January 8th, 2014|2014, Breaking News, Predictions|51 Comments
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Where’s that Black Swan when we need one?

BlackSwanThis was supposed to be my 2014 predictions column but the volume of correspondence following my call for predictions last week was such that I suspect it will be the first of three prediction columns with my actual predictions occupying columns two and three. This column is about the broader subject of how to predict.

I’ve written at least once before on How to Predict the Future. Do a search on that string and an old PBS column will float to the surface. All of that still applies but in this column I want to look somewhat deeper at the motivations and methods of predictors whether they actually know what they are doing or not.

Last week […]

By |January 8th, 2014|2014, Industry, Predictions|39 Comments
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Call for 2014 predictions!

crystalballUpdate January 2, 2014 — My Mom died last night, cleverly extending at least her financial existence into another tax year, so I haven’t been able to get to my 2014 predictions as promised. I’m headed home on Friday so look for the predictions column sometime over the weekend, thanks.

As some of you may recall I’ve been helping my sister care for our 89 year-old mother during an especially difficult period of her life, so if I haven’t been posting quite so much lately that’s why. But readers have been pestering me, nevertheless, for my annual column of predictions for the new year. And why not? But this time I really need your suggestions, which […]

By |December 29th, 2013|2013, Predictions|171 Comments
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Accidental Empires, Chapter 15 — Future Computing

minority-reportThere is so much wrong and yet a lot that’s right in this chapter, which was the last one in the original hardcover edition. I don’t know whether to be embarrassed by it or proud. How does computing today compare with my predictions from 1992? 

ACCIDENTAL EMPIRES

CHAPTER FIFTEEN

FUTURE COMPUTING

Remember Pogo? Pogo was Doonesbury in a swamp, the first political cartoon good enough to make it off the editorial page and into the high-rent district next to the horoscope. Pogo was a ‘possum who looked as if he was dressed for a Harvard class reunion and who acted as the moral conscience for the first […]

By |March 28th, 2013|2013, Books, Business, Companies, Computing, Cringely's Rules, Gadgets, history, Predictions, Software|36 Comments
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