After yesterday’s Kindle Fire HD announcements from Amazon, a reader reminded me of a prediction I made at the start of the year: “If Apple gives up its position of industry leadership in 2012 the only company capable of assuming that role is Amazon.com.” I stand by those words — Amazon is really bringing the fight to Apple — but the most important part is “if Apple gives up its position” which it clearly hasn’t, at least not yet. The real loser here, in fact, is not Apple but Microsoft.
I could be wrong about this but I don’t recall any pundits (me included) predicting that Amazon would yesterday introduce a larger format tablet, yet that’s exactly what they did. The larger Kindle Fire HD with its built-in content and app ecosystem (and that killer 4G data package!) is a viable iPad competitor at a terrific price and puts real pressure on Cupertino. Will Apple match the price? I don’t think so. That’s not the game they want to play. But the game is on, nevertheless, and users can only benefit from competition.
Amazon is copying Apple’s playbook, page-by-page, and doing it beautifully. The innovation they bring is the lower price point. It’s a Toyota/Ford/Buick strategy to Apple’s Lexus/Lincoln/Cadillac. It’s traditional Microsoft positioning, but Amazon has the further advantage of not having to develop (or even pay for) an operating system. So the real loser here isn’t Apple, it’s Microsoft. The tablet market was already broadening, flattening, and moving down market before yesterday’s Amazon announcement. This just makes it all the more difficult for those Windows RT tablets coming shortly to differentiate themselves in a market with thinner and thinner margins.
What’s an Asus or an Acer or even a Dell to do? $299? Shit!
Apple is the innovation leader. What, after all, has Amazon (or Microsoft) actually invented here? Nothing. They’ve emulated Apple at a lower price point and to some extent disintermediated the mobile carriers. So just as Apple had to accept competition in the MP3 player market, Cupertino will have to adapt to the Kindle Fire HD. And I predict they’ll do so by raising the bar and then by inventing a whole new bar just as they have done in the past.
Amazon isn’t taking the design lead away from anyone, at least not yet.
The market loves this, of course, and rewards Amazon for its audacious behavior. What would Apple be worth, for example, if it could claim an Amazonian P/E? Apple would be the first $1 trillion company.
So the heat is on for both Apple and Amazon. Apple has to innovate itself out of a pricing corner. Amazon has to show increased earnings despite what must be razor thin margins. Both companies have to execute well to thrive. But Microsoft in the tablet space has to execute even better just to survive.
Apple must be scrambling to retune its iPad Mini announcement for later this month, but what Microsoft has to be feeling (especially with this week’s lackluster Nokia phone intro) is panic.
Surprised you didn’t mention the “Special Offers” (read: embedded ads) that the Kindles display. Even the $600 Kindle HD from what I hear.
Surely this drops them from the Toyota/Ford/Buick class into the Fiat/Kia/Hyundai class, no?
I believe there is too much relevance being placed on the special offers, as they’ll only be presented when the device is locked. These offers have existed on the Kindle readers for quite some time, and they do not appear to be detrimental to the popularity or sales of the Kindle reader.
Amazon is able to push the devices at such a low price point by selling content, and now by using the Kindle Fire as an advertising platform. It’s an interesting move, and i’m sure they’ll offer an option to remove the ads for those that don’t want them (at a price of course).
So far it looks like all but the Kindle Fire HD come with the option to buy your way out of the ads, but maybe the top tier device will get it too.
On the one hand, ads suck. On the other, they can subsidize lower prices. It’s a trade off that consumers will have to confront. I’m the kind of consumer who would pay more for the ads-free experience, but I think it’s good to see subsidized options for people who can’t or won’t pay more. I’ve read a few over the top editorials against the ad system, but I’ve not yet seen a compelling argument against them other than ads suck.
The ads are present on the Home screen as well, according to Amazon.
This is what happens when you off-shore your product to third parties like Foxconn. Manufacturers in China are just as willing to build similar products for your competitor, if only to increase their volumes. I’d be shocked Amazon has more than 6 Electrical Engineers on their entire staff and yet then can pull an iPad rabbit out of the hat just as easily as David Copperfield.
Peter Dunphy
You could take a tablet from concept to volume inside of a year if you start with:
* “board-level reference design”, a deliverable that SoC vendors will frequently supply on request, especially if you have a track record of driving volume.
* “consulting engineers”. You don’t need six EEs to customize a reference design. Two experienced ones, one for digital/analog and one for radio, might be a reasonable division of labor for a 3-6 month contract to develop a typical tablet hardware product from a feature list. Maybe 2.5 engineers, if you need a driver specialist, can’t use someone from existing personnel stock, and the component manufacturers were so rude as to not supply some drivers.
* “YOUR OWN LAST TWO successful tablet-like products”. You already know and have the Android framework, app store, skinning, and sourcing/manufacturing contacts.
I think you’ll find, Peter, that most of us here are far too savvy to succumb to the Reality Distortion Field for long. Nice try, though.
Amazon has a pretty decent sized office in Cupertino that does all of their hardware engineering and electronic supply chain. Two years ago it was about 200 people, with half of them engineers.
Amazon owns Lab126. Lab126 designs the hardware and they have over 1000 people in their cupertino office. They are heavily staffed by ex-apple people and I can tell you are competent and do not fuck around!
typo: “they” are competent
Bob,
About a year ago, you indicated that you were going to get a Fire for each son and report back.
Haven’t heard anything (don’t think I’ve missed an article in a year or three).
If you didn’t buy last year, will you buy this year?
Thanks
Dan
We got the Kindle Fires as promised and to their credit we haven’t had to use the Fair Trade warranty (yet) on any of them, though one seems to have a sensitive power jack (has to be exactly right). Understand I’m not the primary user of these devices which are all three in my name since I’m the one with the Amazon Prime account, but the boys seem happy with them. It’s mainly books and apps, though, not surfing they are used for, which surprised me. And I don’t think I’ve ever seen a kid watching a movie on one, but then they each have a 23-inch screen on their desks. I’m quite impressed with the build quality and those hated ads, I frankly never even noticed them. One thing that could definitely be better is battery life, but that comes down as much to how they are charged, which is never fully. Little boys have no patience and once the meter moves at all they tend to declare their devices to be recharged.
Now it’s just a question of whether Microsoft can continue coasting on its reserves long enough to somehow conquer the _next_ market shift. They’ve lost content to Apple. They’ve lost search to Google. They’ve lost mobile to Apple and Google. They never even tried for social. The tablet market isn’t settled yet, but there’s no realistic chance of the winner being anybody but one or more of Apple, Google, and Amazon. How can they possibly compete in a market where two of the existing dominant players don’t actually need to make _any_ money on device sales in order to get rich?
The only markets where Microsoft dominates today are the markets where they dominated 20 years ago, and those markets are all shrinking. Granted, they’ve got a lot of cash and a lot of cash flow, but the old rule remains the same: that which cannot go on forever, will stop.
Look for a desperation move like when they tried to buy Yahoo. If Facebook drops much lower Microsoft might make a play…
this week’s crop of Apple rumors (iPhone, yes… Apple TV, no, they can’t pry content out of the octopi’s arms… tablet/2, maybe not now… streaming audio, as if it really constitutes a business, maybe…) have the interesting factor of no video content licenses. against the history of Sony buying Columbia Pictures for content, and NBC buying Universal for content, the obvious suggestion of Apple putting an RPG into the belly of the TV beast by buying Disney comes immediately to mind.
which would suggest Ballmer, whose latest mantra is “Developers, developers, developers… but only if we approve of them will we sell an SDK for Windows 8,” would have the panic reflex of buying Viacom or Comcast. at any price.
Comcast would be in play, they have blah content and the Leno cost cutting is still creating jokes.
this week’s crop of Apple rumors (iPhone, yes… Apple TV, no, they can’t pry content out of the octopi’s arms… tablet/2, maybe not now… streaming audio, as if it really constitutes a business, maybe…) have the interesting factor of no video content licenses. against the history of Sony buying Columbia Pictures for content, and NBC buying Universal for content, the obvious suggestion of Apple putting an RPG into the belly of the TV beast by buying Disney comes immediately to mind.
which would suggest Ballmer, whose latest mantra is “Developers, developers, developers… but only if we approve of them will we sell an SDK for Windows 8,” would have the panic reflex of buying Viacom or Comcast. at any price.
Comcast would be in play, they have blah content and the Leno cost cutting is still creating jokes.
oh, and did I mention the FCC is getting ready for another spectrum party, and will be offering to buy more br0adcasting spectrum shortly? perfect time for one traditional TV chain operator to say screw it and cash in. first guy out would probably claim half or more of the total business sector value. last guy out is taking chapter 7.
just sayin’
There are any number of transitions coming in content. A broadcast network could jump, as you say, though remember they don’t own the affiliate spectrum (just their owned-and-operated stations) so it isn’t as much as you’d guess. Then the MSOs (cable companies) will eventually want out of their video license deals to become common carriers of bits because they already make money on Internet and phone and lose money on TV. That turns all the cable channels into little Hulus in an a la carte media world.
As I’ve always maintained, the most cost-effective route for Apple to follow in Hollywood is simply to pre-purchase options to online rights from film and TV producers. $1 billion would buy every new series from every network before the networks even see them. Do that for two or three years and TV belongs to Apple.
https://www.theonion.com/articles/corporation-reaches-goal-shuts-down,108/
Seriously why is there not a mechanism when a company reaches it Max potential in a market to just give money back to share holders ( dividends I think they are called ) and go for high profit / low investment strategy till market disappears.
Shareholders can then invest dividends in new companies exploiting new markets efficiently.
That sounds like good advice for Dell.
Add to that all the services that Microsoft provides that depend on the cash flow from their Windows and Office products.
I’ve started a company, and Windows 8 is no where on my list of targets. There’s no point. If I deliver a Windows application it will simply be a recompile of an existing Qt-based application.
Bob,
There *were* rumors about a larger screen coming, in fact, coming back to last year (https://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/11/21/larger_kindle_fire/) where some had the larger screen coming in the spring of 2012. You can rummage around The Register’s site for similar rumors. I have been waiting for this because I would like to get one for my wife.
The one recent rumor about this announcement that proved *not* to be true (yet) was that Amazon was going to release an iPhone competitor.
True, but there’s more. Late last month, there were new rumors insisting that the original rumors of a 10 inch Fire were wrong, and that nothing larger than 7″ was ever forthcoming. The 8.9 ended up being a total surprise to everyone.
“What’s an Asus or an Acer or even a Dell to do?”
As in the case of the Nexus 7 probably design and build the tablet.
You should keep an eye on sites like merimobiles. 9.7″ capacitive tablets with Allwinner a10 and Rockchip RK3066 chipsets are below $150.00. Cheap 7″ tablets are approaching $50.
The best account of what is to come is:
http://chrisklein.wordpress.com/2008/10/30/apple-vs-android-modular-to-interdependent-and-back-to-modular/
With Android free and dirt cheap SoC’s (the allwiner a10 module is $7) any moderately literate enginner can slap together a tablet in a few weeks, just like PC’s in the 90’s. This places Apple in much the same precarious position as the late 90’s.
Of course, this means that once basic tablets become “good enough” with comodity modules and Android, different companies can do riffs on new designs, such as the gaming tablets with buttons and joysticks appearing on the market, or the MK802 and it’s ilk.
Apple has more integration talent (and lower parts costs) than any of those, so they CAN compete on price if they have to. But they won’t until their market share drops significantly and by then, as I wrote, they’ll have erected a whole new bar.
Yes that’s true, but as Robert says Apple has oceans of room to lower their prices and still have better margins tan the competition. Just look at how steeply they cut the price of iPods over the years, back in the day.
I actually think Apple missed their chance to own the smartphone industry by 1 year. If they’d cut prices on the 3GS more aggressively and ramped up production they would to this day have higher market share than Android and still have far better margins. In the next 12 months we will see if they allow competing tablets to catch up to the iPad the way the phones did.
I think we are forgetting that Ballmer is on his way out and with him goes a lot of the Gatesian legacy policies that have held Microsoft back from riskier bets. The “Windows Everywhere” strategy will leave with him and free Microsoft from having to un-innovate their tablet products to incorporate the UI of 1995. Look at Windows mobile. Obviously no jump to desktop on Windows 8 phones because it’s ridiculous but I would bet that someone upstairs at least had the IDEA of making a 5 inch phone with Windows desktop.
Windows OWNS enterprise and that doesn’t mean the fancy tablets that salespeople take to meetings to impress their clients but the nuts and bolts servers and client machines that ninty percent of companies use. That isn’t going to change anytime soon. Are you going to be sitting at your desk making your reports on a tablet with a monitor connected? Is your company going to go out and spend a thousand dollars an iMac? Microsoft has a reasonably unassailable enterprise position for the moment and they will likey move to use Skydrive to compete someday with AWS/EC2 or Google Engine. Amazon has a point here that the dream of Larry Ellison could soon be upon us. Low power and cheap dumb clients (phones/tablets) running special services that are always up to date.
Microsoft is innovating but it’s being stifled at the top. It would be like coming up the rack and pinion steering but the company wont put it in because they spent to much in R&D on an old linkage system. If Microsoft would get rid of their Rick Wagoner they could get on with actually defining a clear path all of their properties and services. Right now, with all the cruft, that just isn’t possible. Remember, Amazon doesn’t have a legacy OS to keep on life support.
As far as Apple goes, they care about innovation and margin. Two things that don’t necessarily rely on market share. Sure they are at the top right now but they could fall a long ways while Amazon runs out of cash. Microsoft could lose money on mobile for a decade while the PC dies. Can Amazon say the same? There is a real battle coming but unlike what most of the pundits say, Microsoft isn’t out, they’re the sleeping giant that Amazon has just woken up.
The problem is that it’s not just Ballmer – it’s the upper 7 levels of 15 levels of management(!), and remember Gates still has a Board level position. So his policies in that respect are still alive. All of them have to go, and the Board of Directors has to turn over. Until then, there is no saving Microsoft.
And yes, my little company does not a Windows computer have. And I very much envision being able to do basic work (eventually) on a tablet+monitor+keyboard, perhaps with additional CPU, memory, disk space linked in via the network or desk, even in the enterprise.
Also rememer, many enterprises have started integrating Apple devices – iPods, iPhones, and iPads – since they were products that the CEOs and marketeers wanted to use to be cool. So when it comes to mobile, they already have a working solution from Apple, and are probably not far behind for Android.
$13,326.16 $13,326.16 $13,326.16
Just for fun, using some “arithmetic”!
Amazon PE = 314 Apple earnings ttm = $42.55
Apple’s newe Amazonian Share Price = $42.55 * 314
Market Cap? (We won’t go there.)
Thanks for doing the math! If I recall correctly, Amazon’s accounting and reporting practices are unusually weird too, whereas Apple is about as straightforward as it gets.
$12 trillion by my calculation. Kinda blows past $1T
“Apple has to innovate itself out of a pricing corner.”
Apple has been caught spilling paint on others – Apple and five book publishers and Apple, were accused of conspiring to raise the cost of e-books – price fixing.
Amazon and most of the publishers copped a plea,but Apple is fighting:
http://mediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/06/judge-approves-e-book-pricing-settlement-between-government-and-publishers/?ref=books
“Apple is the innovation leader.”
What, after all, has Apple actually invented here? The Tablet?
YouTube has videos of a Tablet from 18 years ago and a Ted video from 2006 that demonstrates pinch to zoom applications (map?)
Apple invented a way to make billions of dollars in a product category where everyone else failed. Making a product that much better than what came before takes innovation. That people like you lice with blinders on still amazes me.
The advantage of a Microsoft tablet will be integration with the Microsoft ecosystem. This is huge for corporations and universities (people doing work). But, not so much for consumers (people being entertained).
My wife has an iPad and I have an iPod Touch. They get used for checking email, surfing the web, and an occasional app. But, they are not good for getting work done. For that we always revert to our PCs.
Most Universities and many Corporations rely on Unix/Linux for Real Work, not the Janet & John Windows OS.
I’ve worked in a large university. They use Windows, OS X, and Linux – in that order. There are some that like Linux on the desktop, but they are a minority. Linux tends to find a home with the minority of highly technically competent people that prefer command line interfaces to a GUI.
Bob –
Amazon forked Android to create the Kindle Fire OS. Do you think they will be able to maintain and upgrade the OS with successive generations or are they likely to just maintain the current functionality for the foreseeable future?
It appears that Amazon has no trouble keeping up with Android’s evolution; the Fire HD is based on Android 4.0 (ICS) whereas the original Fire was based on 2.3. Yes, Android 4.1 (Jelly Bean) is out, but only for a few months and ICS was a MAJOR change from the earlier versions. If Amazon as able to navigate the transition from 2.3 to 4.0, it’s safe to say they can maintain their fork without breaking a sweat. One thing Amazon definitely has is a stellar software development team.
This also begs the question whether Amazon will decide to provide a major update to the Fires already out there if the new Fires handle ICS well enough.
What is the MS strategy for content? If I buy the Microsoft tablet, what apps are available, what music, what movies?
Microsoft is making a classic technical marketing mistake. “Buy it because it is Microsoft.” Faster processor, more memory and upgrades, but once it is reasonably fast, no one cares. What can I put on it? What does it do for me?
Will your lame tablet help me get laid? Then why do I care?
In 18-24 months Micosoft’s ZunePad will be history.
OK. Assuming you’re right, what then?
Beyond inverting the anti-Apple trope that “the iPad is just a giant iPod touch,” I’m not sure he intended to add anything to the conversation. I happen to disagree with him, anyway. Like many people, I was waiting for Apple to introduce something like the Surface even before the iPad, and I have come to accept that they never will. I’ll be one of the first in line when the stylus model comes out this coming winter. I’m already testing Win8, and as someone who never liked the start menu, I certainly don’t miss it.
assume that someone sold their apple stock and bought amazon based on your recommendations…. I know my amazon was at 180 near that time when I bought it.
Big Wet Smoochies, Bob !!!
What I find most fascinating about this analysis of the future tablet war isn’t who was left out of the article. Not even a mention of google. Stunning! Who would have thought 3 month ago that they wouldn’t even be a contender. The game has significantly changed in the last month.
Sorry…1st time posting 🙂 This might make more sense:
What I find most fascinating about this analysis of the future tablet war is who was left out of the article. Not even a mention of google. Stunning! Who would have thought 3 months ago that they wouldn’t even be a contender. The game has significantly changed in the last 3 month.
Another prediction: OEMs start shipping Android desktops+notebooks to compliment their Android mobile devices once Win 8 flops and Surface squeezes them out of the tablet biz.
The competition is great for everyone, regardless of which tablet you prefer. I can’t imagine buying a tablet and still wading through ads, but some probably don’t mind the initial cost savings. Kudos to Amazon for taking the risk and playing to its strengths. For now, I’ll stick with my iPad though.
Microsoft is already experimenting with xbox’es on a subscription model. They could do the same for their Surface tablet. They haven’t made any pricing available, maybe just to wait and see what Amazon, Google and Apple are doing.
IMO, the biggest selling point Microsoft has that their tablets, laptops and everything in between can replace PC’s. All the others, especially the Fire, can’t do that. Most people I know with an iPad, still have a PC. Even Bob’s children have a PC; with a Microsoft tablet you could connect the tablet to the 23 inch monitor and use that. Only Windows 8 has the power to connect to any printer or camera over usb. Only Windows 8 can accept card readers to connect to a company network. And so on.
It’s a selling point that saves money.
Intel lowered their outlook on slowing PC sales.
The market is definitely moving to the tablet.
Please, lay off the auto marque analogies.
I understand the point you’re trying to make, but it makes no sense with regard to structure or the examples used.
Kindle Fire HD is indeed competing with Apple, down to apparently only being available on the sucky AT&T network (which I personally have suffered using for 3 years now). Sorry, Amazon, but that is a deal killer. Stop dictating what (pseudo) 4G network the device can be used on and you could have a winner.
Apple has iTunes media store + app store + brilliant design
Amazon has media store + app store + a store that sells actual material stuff
Windows 8 RT has an app store
Windows 8 x86 has all the legacy Windows software and all the mainstream commercial developers
Google has an app store + a media store (youtube) + pervasive advertising infrastructure
Microsoft will continue to do well in the commercial marketplace, but not in the consumer marketplace. This will make them a loser in the eyes of the tech punditocracy.
Everyone else in the consumer space will be losers, too.
Google is even worried about Amazon, because why search Google for a product to buy, huge number of products lead to Amazon in the results, when you can go directly to Amazon and search.
Amazons business is amazing.
It does appear that Bob has a point if you think of WinRT devices as competitors to iOS or Android, which have a well developed ecosystem by comparison. But Microsoft is also looking at WinRT as the future “Windows” just as Apple is making their OSX devices behave more like iOS. This is evidenced by the fact that any new app developed with the tools meant for Windows 8 can be easily converted to code running on WinRT and devices with the ARM chip. Another example of Microsoft saying “you don’t need x86” is the fact that they will include Microsoft Office on their WinRT Surface tablet. So Microsoft is not just making a competing product or platform, it’s evolving Windows at the same time, while allowing for legacy apps to continue to work on x86 chips.
Horace Dediu has an interesting take. He doesn’t think Amazon plans to flood the market with Kimdles. These are only for there best customers. People who download lots of content. That means Apple won’t notice any real effect on IPad sales. Instead it’ll affect the companies fighting for the 20% of the remaining market.
Which I guess is Microsoft’s territory.
I wonder how Google feels about this. It’s their os and another company will rake in all the money from there work.
Google has always been comfortable letting others risk and profit on their work, because what Google is after hasn’t been sales but an open field where Search dominates and Adwords humms like a cash-minting machine. Android was bought/developed in 2005 to defend against Windows mobile, because Google feared that MS dominating the mobile screens would give them to clout to boot Google Search off people’s phones. Neither Google or MS saw Apple coming, but whereas Windows Mobile was handed its ass, Android managed to do exactly what it was supposed to: keep any one player from winning the mobile OS war.
Even if Google makes 0$ from Amazon’s Android fork, they still are very happy to see someone else attack Apple from below. Given that the margins on Amazon’s tablets are near zero, Google is probably delighted to see someone else take that risk. It buys them time to work out their Nexus/Motorola strategy, which still probably keeps them up at night since hardware isn’t their thing.
Meanwhile MS gets a consolation prize of 5 bucks for every Android license, as part of the patent settlement with Google.
I think the bottom line, as others have noted, is that someone is going to have to make a multi-billion-dollar play for content. Disney-Pixar-ABC, NBC-Universal, Comcast, or Time Warner.
You’re all (mostly) forgetting about the Nexus 7 (and the inevitable, probably available in time for Christmas, 9-10 inch version). It is a truly incredible device and Android 4.1 is just as polished as iOS, even better in some ways. It looks like up to 8 million of them will be sold this year, which is nothing to sneeze at. Honestly, I see little reason to buy a Kindle Fire with the Nexus out there for the same price.
If anyone has the cash to throw money at the market on par with Apple, it’s Google. And they don’t really care about margins on devices because their business model is completely different than all the other competitors. Actually, that’s what makes this whole “mobile device war” so interesting to me, the fact that the big players (and Microsoft as the wannabe) all have very different business models. Except for Content; Content is key to all (or should be, as wannabe MS doesn’t seem to understand).
Mr. Cringely, why have you not commented about Apple vs Samsung. If anything, I expect long term challenger in tablet space to be Samsung. None of the current contenders have the hardware production capability and know how to bend the cost at it’s will. Samsung, should it wish to, can kill the margin and drive everyone out. Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, and Google, no.
“What, after all, has Amazon (or Microsoft) actually invented here? Nothing. They’ve emulated Apple at a lower price point and to some extent disintermediated the mobile carriers. ”
Whenever I see statements like this, I tend to think the author is lazy, or hasn’t used anything (at least not much) other than Apple. This whole “article” reads like a fanboy trying to convince himself that all the money he has put in to Apple stuff was “worth it”.
… and commenter googles Cringely in 5, 4, 3, 2…
Why the “Apple is Lexus/Lincoln/Cadillac & others are Toyota/Ford/Buick” analogy fails: I can actually afford Apple products.
I am surprised that you did not expect a large format Kindle Fire. I read runors of this shortly after the first Kindle Fire was released and had been looking for its appearance.
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I agree here…. but bob didn’t go far enough…
with amazon putting the $300 ceiling on 10″ tablets, and amazon and google both putting the $200 ceiling on 7″ tablets, there is no way the windows tablets will move if they are priced anywhere near what the ipad goes for.
Bingo. The Fire will (pun intended) suck all the air out of the room for non-iPad tablets, with the Nexus line probably competing neck-to-neck.
I have to disagree with Bob, Amazon’s LTE yearly pricing is quite innovative – I’d buy that kind of bandwidth for my parents in a heartbeat. Of course, I wouldn’t place a Kindle Fire HD in my kid’s hands anymore due to the Ads you can’t turn off, but the “Free Time” kid countdown-to-locked controls look pretty neat too (and nowhere on iOS or Android).
Amazon has basically re-invigorated the yearly subscription with Amazon Prime and now their $50 LTE data plan.
The Amazon data plan would be fine for someone who doesn’t need a smartphone or if Amazon’s tablet could make calls, thereby making it a smartphone. I have figured out that if I buy a smartphone, I can use it on a GoPhone smartphone plan and pay only $110 annually for 2.6 GB of data (that’s two $25 purchases of 1 GB plus $5/mo for 50MB/mo). The basic voice charges cost $25/mo for 250 mins and includes unlimited texting. So it’s a good idea to consider a big screen smartphone with a prepaid plan. It all depends on how much you use of data, voice, and texts for all your devices.
I think the real institutional advantage that both Apple and Amazon (to a lesser degree) have is that they are the only two companies that have end-to-end media ecosystems that incorporate all devices in the home. Amazon’s ecosystem is less stable and more dependent on 3rd parties – which in this case is a negative for the consumer. Microsoft could get there, but it would require breaking down walls in multiple product lines. Going from adequate penetration in simply the lean-back television space and the pc/laptop sphere to adequate penetration in the phone and tablet space will be difficult give how MS has positioned themselves.
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Amazon, Google, and Apple all sell content for use on their devices. The differences between the companies are: Apple sells their hardware for profit, while Amazon and Google sell their hardware at a loss. Google’s approach is also different because they copy Microsoft’s business model of licensing the OS (Android) to different device manufacturers.
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