Intel last week bought for $884 million Wind River Systems, a venerable embedded operating system company — yet another of the chip giant’s recent forays into software. The reason for this purchase is both simple and grand — to help Intel vertically integrate and to further its Linux ambitions. Intel’s ultimate target with this purchase is Microsoft. It’s all about kicking Redmond out of the netbook business.
Netbooks are the big hardware success of 2009 and most are powered by Intel Atom processors. The problem with PC’s in general and netbooks in particular is that they aren’t very profitable for Intel campared to the good old days. Microsoft makes more profit from every Windows PC sold than does the PC manufacturer and LOTS more profit than Intel makes despite its massively dominant market share in microprocessors. And with Netbooks retailing under $400, compared to Microsoft Intel makes hardly any profit at all. So Microsoft has to die.
This is a huge change for Intel, which has for decades acted as Microsoft’s bitch, doing pretty much whatever Redmond demanded for fear of being written-out of the next Windows PC hardware spec in favor of AMD or even IBM. But that was the old Microsoft. The Microsoft of today isn’t nearly as powerful, whether they yet know it or not.
Netbooks and mobile handsets are the first products from Intel’s Linux strategy. But Intel’s Linux platform — called Moblin — can be extended to the desktop as a direct competitor to Windows 7 if the company finds success in the netbook space. Microsoft isn’t stupid, so of course there is a huge battle brewing.
Here’s the problem for Intel: the company lacks key software capabilities despite having more than 5000 software engineers on staff. This is true especially for system software.
Intel’s new strategy (now 3-4 years old) is to be a platform company rather than a processor company. To become a platform company, Intel needs both silicon and low level software to tie all those pieces together.
Think about Intel’s Centrino as a platform. Centrino has: 1) a low-power processor; 2) a wireless chip, and; 3) software to manage wifi/wireline connections. Intel makes more money selling these three parts together as the Centrino brand and less when they sell the individual pieces. So software to Intel is glue to connect chips together and maximize revenue.
New chips at Intel require more system software (firmware) than Intel ever anticipated. For example: Intel’s Active Management Technology (AMT) requires firmware to wake up chips and apply patches when the computer is sleeping. This is true for both virtualization and security. In recent months Intel has stumbled delivering some key platform technologies simply because the firmware wasn’t ready.
Now Intel is searching for the next wave of applications for non-PC (typically embedded) computing devices — autos, healthcare, gaming to name a few. All these non-PC based applications will require even more system software capabilities.
Intel’s efforts with the Atom processor are beginning to pay off. They have the right process technology to produce Atoms at a low price. But the market is not paying much for Atom and Intel is at risk of cannibalizing its traditional markets with OEMs designing Atom-based netbooks that consumers buy instead of more profitable notebooks. In this environment Microsoft is not helping, since Windows makes netbooks more expensive and limits the profitability of both the PC maker and Intel, which is essentially making a netbook-on-chip.
Moblin is Intel’s answer to Windows – an Open Source Linux entirely funded by Intel.
Moblin is also Intel’s answer to Google’s Android operating system. Since Android is also Open Source and free, Intel might have relied solely on Google to take on Microsoft. But Intel as a platform company is too strategic to rely on any third party, even Google — hence Moblin.
The Wind River acquisition is Intel’s $884 million acknowledgement both that Moblin is strategic for the company AND that the Linux campaign isn’t going as well as Intel would like. Wind River, as a major force in embedded software, will quickly move Moblin into a variety of non-PC devices while also giving Intel more of the low-level software expertise that it has so sorely needed. If it works, we’ll see Moblin everywhere in 18-24 months. If it works really well, we’ll see Intel challenging Microsoft on servers and desktops, too.
Intel CEO Paul Otellini is determined not to be anybody’s bitch.
I think Bob missed an important point here: Wind River is extremely interesting for Intel as an official Android integration partner. Leveraging the free OS provided by Google, Intel with Wind River will be able to develop Android-based platforms with all the HAL and middleware taken care for.
BR
Arnaud
Interesting reading there Bob. It will be interesting to see as we move away from the traditional machines for some tasks, to embedded devices and Netbooks, tablets etc, the battle that unfolds between Intel, Google, MS and whatever Apple bring to the table.
I suppose that Intels big weakness is that they will still be supplying OEM to other manufacturers rather than making consumer products. What do you think of Apple’s position in all of this? After their purchase of PA Semi they have the ability to build the rumoured tablet/netbook device with their own ARM based silicon, software and hardware design. Then they sell it in their own stores.
Now thats being nobody’s bitch!
I think the Atom is not hurting the profit like described in the article for several reasons:
Atom is replacing low performance chips, which essentially are underclocked high performance parts to cover the low-end segment. Those are expensive to make so the margins are low. Having a low performance, but also low cost chip can improve the margins.
Atom netbooks replace AMD notebooks too because they attack the only AMD advantage: price.
Almost every owner of a netbook has a PC too for two reasons: 1. They are bought in the first place as a mobile PC. 2. When it replaces one of those big and heavy notebooks that served as mobile and home PC, it makes people want to have a desktop PC when they are at home.
A netbook sold is better than nothing sold in this economy. Instead of waiting to replace their notebooks consumers buy a netbook.
People that could not afford an ultraportable before are now buying a netbook. Here the new ULV chips also provide an alternative with a higher sale price while retaining the advantage of low power consumption.
Netbooks are being replaced more quickly. Compared to notebooks, they get damaged quicker because people don’t care as much about them. The use as backup PC might justify an upgrade for many consumers (This also happens in the mobile phone market). Some owners might not even need any justification to upgrade and then recycle their old netbook quickly, because it was cheap. The used netbook market will hurt new sales, but also offers new people a chance to get a portable PC at a very low price.
The real threat are ARM and Via, when they start selling netbooks in larger number it will hurt the profit.
>> The real threat are ARM and Via, when they start selling netbooks in larger number it will hurt the profit.
Ding, Ding. Although ARM is only the licensor; they don’t build. But, from what I’ve read elsewhere, the ARM chips are “better” than Atom.
Didn’t Intel turn over Moblin to the Linux Foundation (or some other such body) recently? In a way, wouldn’t this leave open the possibility that the new leadership could steer the Moblin project in a direction that does not directly lineup with Intel’s future plans?
Wind River makes the best embedded operating systems, period. If you want to build a critical, super reliable computer system and application you start with Wind River. You will find their technology in aviation, spacecraft, and countless other demanding applications. The quality and discipline Wind River put into their flagship VxWorks product can be found in their other products, Moblin included.
Microsoft Windows is well known for its lock ups, BSD’s, security issues, and other problems. Apple has gone through great pains to produce a better and more reliable operating system, and later joke about Windows in their advertisements. INTEL IS PURCHASING OPERATING SYSTEM TECHNOLOGY THAT IS EVEN BETTER AND MORE RELIABLE. In the growing market of appliances, embedded control, and netbook — a reliable operating system is vital. Intel will soon be the undisputed leader!!!
Now things will get really interesting if Intel would buy Sun’s Open Office from Oracle.
Also of interest is Google’s announcement to enter the corporate email market, building a platform that will be a plug in replacement to Microsoft Exchange. In the corporate email market, Microsoft is the absolute leader. When you look at the costs to support a corporate email system; deal with the security issues; fight the email based spam, virus, and pfishing problems; etc. it requires a good sized staff and significant costs. Google with its size, technology, and automation can do the same thing for a fraction of the cost and better.
Sometime soon the playing field will become level again and Microsoft may actually have to compete and earn their business.
A perfect storm is brewing bob.
I really do think though, that the big fight for dominance will be between google and apple. Ms is a dinosaur.
Isn’t a integrated hardware/software solution what Apple provides? Maybe Intel also looking to grab a piece of Apple market in the deal
The Wind acquisition is a pure channel play for Intel – gives them a conduit into the embedded space they had already been dabbling in with Genivi (automotive) and aspiring to with MIDs. Will be interesting to see who wins the MID vs. smart-phone battle. Given Intel’s past failures in the embedded and cellular space it is not a slam dunk this will pan out.
ARM, Qualcomm, Broadcom, Freescale et al are not standing still. The mebedded space is radically different landscape than the x86 market.
Apple has been typically quiet on netbooks. Can’t help but wondering how Snow Leopard and its 6GB smaller footprint has been designed to scale to this category. Suspect they’ll launch something in September.
I disagree strongly with John, although everyone’s entitled to his own opinion, for sure.
Green Hills’ Integrity OS is certified for security and reliability at a higher level than VxWorks; even Micrium’s (minimal) uC/OS-II is more highly certified.
VxWorks is used in a lot of NASA & space & aero products because of $$$ and marketing budget, not quality or reliability.
For the record, I used to work at Intel as a firmware guy (long before it bloated to 5K software engineers on staff — I had NO IDEA it was anywhere near that fatty….) Intel then, and Intel now, has *no clue* how to do firmware correctly.
In their DNA they are a hardware company, still riding the wave of success from the unfortunate decision to go with the x86 architecture for the PC (which, for those who don’t know, had nothing to do with technical or architectural superiority, but availability). I believe they can change/evolve/adapt, but I can tell you that working there really was the low point of my career.
Also to make matters worse, most of the chip designers were either lazy, insecure or arrogant… this is was at the Folsom site…. I knew 2 IC guys that really impressed me, the rest were just there.
Sorry if this sounds like Intel bashing, I started off trying to paint the VxWorks picture a little more clearly, but I think Intel has an uphill battle. 10 years ago I only bought desktop PCs. 5 years ago I only bought (powerful) laptops. Going forward, I may not be buying much in the way of “PC” hardware anymore (smartphones, netbooks, etc…)
Intel, listen up: lead, follow or get out of the way. And by “lead”, I mean “lead actively”, don’t sit in the catbird seat and passively vacuum up those dollars like a voracious Hoover. That well’s gonna run dry some day…
>> Intel then, and Intel now, has *no clue* how to do firmware correctly.
Just out of curiosity then, where did the controller for the X-25 SSDs come from? According to what I’ve read, it was Intel built. And it blows away the OEM controllers.
It’s a fair point, Robert. Although it is kind of the exception that proves the rule – it is the one case where the firmware is not bad. Although we have yet to see what will happen if there is a bug in there relative to performance, and a new firmware has to be pushed out.
Then again, you could make an argument that the micro-code in their processors, which is of course firmware, is another example where they do a pretty good job.
I do know, however, as a former Intel employee, that the way they approach the architecture, design, and implementation of firmware would make companies who do firmware for a living laugh hysterically. It is a very hodge-podge mechanism with holes all over the place – much easier to get wrong than to get right the way they do it, and history has proven that out.
And that, I think, is Dan’s point. They have a lot of software people, it is very fat, and while they talk the talk about how important it is, and occasionally get it right, the way they operate internally says otherwise.
Okay, maybe VxWorks isn’t the BEST embedded OS. It is a very good OS. It has a large installed base of customers. If you want to build a good handheld device that you can just turn on, and it always works until you turn it off, the Wind River isn’t a bad choice. It is actually a pretty good one. My cell phone locks up periodically. Do you want to guess what OS it is running?
Okay Intel doesn’t understand software. That has been common knowledge for a good 15+ years. There is no news here. With the purchase of Wind River Intel now has an operating system and a team of people who do in fact KNOW software. The key will be whether or not Intel will be able to keep the team, or will they bolt?
Okay IBM picked the wrong processor for the original PC and Intel’s fame and fortune was more of being in the right place at the right time. That decision is almost 30 years old now, we really need to get over it. IBM went shopping at the precise time the microcomputer industry was changing from 8 to 16 bits. Motorola had a better 16 bit CPU. Only Intel could provide a 16 bit CPU the complete set of supporting chips, albeit 8-bit chips. IBM wanted to ship products at a certain date. Intel could provide the parts, Motorola could not. The choice of Intel was not for technology, it was for logistics. If the decision had been made 6 months later, Intel probably would have been passed up.
Suppose you wanted to design and ship a netbook for Christmas. You 1000’s of software engineers can’t do the job. So you go shopping for the stuff you need. Wind River was there, it works, they can build a product with it. That is EXACTLY what IBM did 30 years ago. They could have developed the product internally. It would have taken them several years and no one would have paid the price. They went shopping for the technology they needed — Intel, Microsoft, others. Many times you can’t get “the best.” You have to settle for what you can get and what works.
Intel wants to get into new products and markets. They are investing in their future. If you are a competitor if Wind River, be careful. Intel has wanted to get into the embedded market for many years. They now have an experienced software team working for them. If they use that team smartly, Intel could become a formidable player in your market.
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Dan is absolutely spot-on. I’m an ex-Intel employee as well, and Intel really does not get software. x86 is their bread and butter and that takes priority over anything else. Intel and Linux is like Microsoft and Search, and we all know how well Microsoft has done in Search for the past 10 years. As Dan said, things may change for Intel, but unless their core x86 business was severely under attack, don’t expect much from Intel getting into software… this type of thing happens once every few years and then dies out… and it’s back to x86 again.
If I recall correctly, WindRiver is also the owner of BSDI…intel is also known for pulling things out of left field…
One point Bob got incorrect, but he wouldn’t know it was incorrect – you had to be an insider working at Intel to know this – but Moblin is not Intel’s answer to Android. Moblin was started before Android, and is the result of years of efforts within Intel to create self-sustaining software bureaucracy that can no longer be killed.
Like most big companies, Intel has certain groups of people who simply run around trying to justify their existence, and once they get their hooks into some cash from an influential patron, they can’t be stopped. As Bob mentioned, there are thousands of software engineers at Intel, who have had lots of programs cancelled and are always on the cusp of being canned because they don’t generate revenue of their own (like in Bob’s example, they are “glue”). Intel software engineers, unfortunately, are viewed as second class citizens within the company.
Like with IT at a non-tech company, where most CEOs don’t know what a computer is and therefore give the IT department whatever they ask for out of fear, Intel has very little clue about software, but there are enough influential decision makers around who fund software out of fear – the fear of “we can’t just sell chips”.
I was there when Moblin was about 6 months old (and still internal… the name Moblin, which sounds horrible… like that Seinfeld Episode for “Moland Springs” water, hadn’t been created yet), and Android was announced. I asked why were continuing our own efforts – as opposed to becoming a technical leader within Android to help push it where we wanted it to go. The answer was simple – it had nothing to do with technical vision, or a biz strategy – it was simply a matter of intertia. Some fearing-for-their-jobs software guys finally got into a somewhat stable organization, with a wealthy patron (Anand Chandrasheker), and darned if they were going to give that up.
As Bob points out, Intel has stumbled badly with firmware… and that’s a much easier to control process. Consumer oriented software, with pushed updates, virus fears, etc. is orders of magnitude harder. I don’t particularly like Microsoft and the way they do things, but at least they understand the problem. Intel doesn’t yet even know what they don’t know. And unfortunately, Intel has the arrogance of many silicon companies and thinks software is an afterthought or is easy (“hey, just recompile”), and they refuse to learn history of other software as a secondary business companies that have failed. They are going to make the same mistakes.
The other issue here is, Intel is just horrendous at acquisitions. They have a highly entrenched NIH culture, and every company they’ve managed to buy in the past has dried up and died – the people left, the products were killed, etc. Two examples? DEC and Level1.
Basically, if you are a fan of Wind River’s offerings, well, in about 2 years, they will be dead, so you better start shopping for a new embedded Linux about now. Intel just flushed almost $1B down the toilet, and in actuality, probably helped Google Android by removing an embedded player from the market.
If Intel wants to do anything worthwhile in software, perhaps they might start by taking their ISA designers outside and shooting them; then hiring some engineers who know what they are doing in this area.
We start with the original abortion that is the x86 instruction set (both the integer and fp sides). OK, that was long ago, it was a different time. But what about the stupidity of the MMX extensions? What about the never-ending SSE1/2/3/3’/4 extensions? Compare this BS to the simple elegance of the PPC VMX/Altivec instructions, all introduced at once.
Or compare the random application of the VT extensions across half the product line but not the other half.
Intel has a pattern of not caring about how difficult it makes a programmer’s life. It has a pattern of slapping poorly thought out instructions (and other concepts) on its chips immediately, rather than taking some time to consolidate ideas and ask around for what exactly is needed by programmers. I’m unaware of ANY significant new programming ideas and models from Intel — certainly their efforts in the field of wider parallelism adoption have been lackluster, and it is nVidia, with CUDA, that has really set this world on fire.
It’s really really rare that a company changes what it fundamentally is; and I see no evidence that this will happen in the case of Intel. They will remain a company with extraordinary process and implementation engineers, led by designers who are utter bleeding morons; this doesn’t seem like a path that will result in great software by anyone’s standards.
Hey Maynard… 1991 just called. They want their RISC vs. CISC argument back.
[…] Robert Cringely has an interesting take today on the purchase of Wind by Intel. In essence, he is saying that Intel is gunning to take down MS with their purchase of Wind because Microsoft takes the lions share of profits from each Netbook purchase. The problem with PC’s in general and netbooks in particular is that they aren’t very profitable for Intel campared to the good old days. Microsoft makes more profit from every Windows PC sold than does the PC manufacturer and LOTS more profit than Intel makes despite its massively dominant market share in microprocessors. And with Netbooks retailing under $400, compared to Microsoft Intel makes hardly any profit at all. So Microsoft has to die. […]
I like how the PBS-gloves are off.
Bob, this column doesn’t quite make sense to me.
Intel doesn’t make $$ on netbooks like MSFT does? Why then did MSFT blame netbook sales for their poor financial performance last quarter (or Q1 this year – it was a couple months back).
Intel buys Wind River to own the netbook market. Wind River’s products will show up in cars and washing machines. OK, but what does that have to do with netbooks?
It seems more likely that the Wind River takeover is a play against ARM and one more front on Intel’s ‘x86 everywhere’ strategy that they announced a couple years ago when they first talked up Atom chips. And Android, developed for smart phones that now run on ARM chips, is an opening for ARM chipmakers to slip into the netbook and MID markets – markets Intel thought it created and controls. Android is no ally for Intel!
Controlling Moblin and now an embedded OS means Intel can tweak these to specifically give performance boosts to Intel chips and chipsets. Moblin has code to take advantages of Atom features – not Via Nano chips or any Geode successor AMD comes up with. Wind River gets Intel into the Ford Motors game. MSFT is an opponent, sure – in cars.
I would love for Intel to put some strongarm squeezes on OEMs to get them to put out Moblin-running netbooks that break the serious restriction that MSFT is said to be attaching to any OEM who wants to preinstall the cheap starter edition of Win7. So far MSFT has been able to get all the OEMs to dance to MSFT’s tune in what they can offer on netbooks and nettops that run WinXP; MSFT hopes to continue that dominance when Win7 comes out. You want to put out a netbook under $300? Sure, go ahead, take Starter Edition on that, just to get good deals on other SKU versions of Win7 on your other notebooks, desktops, and high-end netbooks. Plus MSFT will throw in advertising copay dollars. All aimed at keeping all flavors of Linux out of the lineup.
Intel is about the only company with the balls and dollars to push MSFT back on those fronts. I hope it happens.
Wind River sounds like a retirement community, and I suspect it will be after Intel fumbles this M&A effort.
[…] Atomic Warfare And with Netbooks retailing under $400, compared to Microsoft Intel makes hardly any profit at all. So Microsoft has to die. […]
If Intel and Dell and maybe Red Hat had joined forces on the Linux front years ago they might be challenging MSFT now. You don’t just get good overnight or lucky with a purchase but without years of R&D and integration. Now Linux is more fragmented than ever with Android on the scene. If Android get forked it will hurt Linux even more, not help. Profit margin necessary to fund your R&D is diving too with netbooks for the OEMs. And Redmond now has a best friend in overseas assemblers that can slap together PCs and netbooks better and cheaper than Dell. Some companies simply may not evolve fast enough or have the software genes to survive to the next computing era.
[…] Read the entire article […]
[…] how big companies work and strategies) is back in action, after he moved from PBS to his own blog. In his latest post, he reasons out Intel’s latest […]
Thanks for the spam. “Read the entire post” my foot. We already read it before we got up to your spam.
Good evening.
There is one point that I think you are missing, and it’s the fact that Moblin is also Intel’s approach to current desktop-linuxes problems.
Linux distributions, although a good solutions for servers and datacenters, is still a problem of desktops because of two thing that this systems highly require: Sound and Video.
Consider for a second the current state of sound in Linux: two or three different implementations of sound systems (Phonon on KDE, gstreamer on GNOME and so on) with no compatibility betwee them, with possible interlocking and conflicts.
For instance, I use Ubuntu Jaunty and Amarok, and sometimes I really can’t initiate it without some sound problem.
This is a really pain for the main maker of sound hardware, Intel. Nowadays, most computers have the sound system integrated in the chipset and you don’t need an specialized sound card if you are not editing or recording, or playing in some special way.
Moblin could solve this problem if it includes sound drivers and subsystems and convince Linux Distributions to use them. And you can apply the same reasoning to the graphic problem with Linux and the X-Windows Systems.
Intel can, at a great extent, set up “de facto” standards for the “Linux-world”, taking most of its internal fragmentation away from mainstream distributions.
I’m sure Intel thinks Microsoft has to die. Everyone does. Old story.
What Bob has left out is also an old story. To kill Microsoft you have to convince application software companies to rewrite their code to your “killer” OS… or at least recompile and performance tune. Nobody’s been able to do that, which is why Microsoft can sell crap that everyone agrees is crap. When you go with Apple, Linux or netbook you are essentially deciding to turn your back on 99% of all software titles. Microsoft’s monopoly exits SOLELY BECAUSE OF APPLICATION COMPATIBILITY! Get it?
Netbooks are successful because most users only need a cheap machine with web browser, IM client and iTunes. That is what might kill Microsoft — the realization that users don’t need a desktop or full-sized laptop. This has nothing to do with Intel and what they may or may not do. If software as a service ever takes off, that is Microsoft’s death sentence. Because then even power users won’t need a full PC.
But this is changing – More and more “applications” have been rolled into all operating systems, so that most users can do everything they need without installing any third party apps. The three big exceptions to that are iTunes, Enterprise Apps, and games.
Enterprise Apps are moving more and more to a web/cloud/saas model, so OS may not be much of an issue in the future. All you need is a good AJAX capable browser and most employees at most companies should be fine.
Hard core gaming will continue to be highly optimized for the OS, but that isn’t too big a market. Most game playing has already moved to flash based web apps.
Go to pbs.org and read a couple of Bob’s columns on doing business despite Microsoft. Intel may be doing the exact right thing. They have some business plans and are doing what is needed to make them happen. Obviously some of their plans do not involve Microsoft and they are acquiring the technology they need.
We’re really got to get over all this negativity. It doesn’t solve any problems or make us more successful. It is really a distraction.
Until Moblin gets a port of MS Office, people will continue to pick winxp for their netbooks. The main reason I use a netbook is for MS Office applications. I know about openoffice.org and google docs but it is a hassle when I am working with complex powerpoint, excel, or word files.
Remember years ago when Apple was on its deathbed and MSFT came to the rescue by finally releasing MS Office on their OS along with investing millions of dollars ( I think it was a $150 million investment). This is what I believe saved Apple and allowed it to sell its wares to the mainstream market.
One of life’s great mysteries! Why is not there a 100% compatible and capable replacement for Microsoft Office? If someone would invest a few $million, hire a dozen or so gifted programmers, and really fix up Open Office — they could create an Office-killer — and could get their investment back in the first month it is out.
If someone really wants to change the world — create the Office-killer.
I can answer this for you. It’s so easy!
In order to be 100% compatible and capable replacement for Microsoft Office, any would-be Office-killer should have to :
1. be able to read MS Office documents formats and have extensive knowledge on how Microsoft Office applications are rendering those files (usually you get all this only if Microsoft allows it)
2. pay Microsoft a license to be able to do #1 or risk being sued for IP violations (there is a risk of being non profitable either way you do it)
3. make sure Microsoft does not change the internal format of its Office documents without letting you know about it (why should they?) and thus rendering the would-be Office-killer non compatible. There will be no way you could suspect them since their Office reads those documents without any problem while your Office doesn’t. Microsoft will have a good laugh at the company who would attempt this.
It’s not about money or programming skills. It’s all because you have to play by Microsoft’s rules.
Backwards. Office was written for the Mac, then ported to Windoze: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_office
Apple paid M$ for the development. Saved M$, in fact.
Atomic Warfare…
ntel last week bought for $884 million Wind River Systems, a venerable embedded operating system company — yet another of the chip giant’s recent forays into software. The reason for this purchase is both simple and grand — to help Intel vertical…
You just write down whatever forms in your head during the magic minutes between slumber and awake, don’t you
Intel bought Wind River because it complements their lineup and eliminates a competitor, and has nuts to do with going to war against Microsoft
[…] ，作者：Bob Cringely ，原文在此 […]
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Apple paid M$ for the development. Saved M$, in fact.ss
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