There’s a 40 year-old nuclear reactor cooling-down right now in Japan following the big earthquake in that country. Actually there are 11 such reactors cooling-down, automatically brought offline by the 8.9 temblor, but one of those reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi generating plant is not going gracefully and 3000 people have been moved from their homes as a precaution.
Good idea.
I worked as an investigator for the Presidential Commission on the Accident at Three Mile Island, 32 years ago, and a few months studying the plumbing TMI’s Unit 2, which is actually younger than the errant Japanese reactor, gives me a very healthy respect for the danger in Japan.
That Japanese reactor shut down automatically within seconds of the earthquake, the idea being that dropping the thermal load (stopping the nuclear reaction and cooling-down the reactor) would minimize risk overall from a huge plumbing system that was likely compromised and vulnerable. Radiation and the passage of time conspire to make pipes brittle and aftershocks make brittle pipes break. Not good.
The 10 other reactors behaved as expected, but this unit didn’t. Once the reactor was no longer making steam to drive a turbine and generate electricity the plant was supposed to fire-up diesel generators to make the power needed to keep coolant pumps running. Only the diesels wouldn’t start. It can take up to seven days, you see, to get such a reactor down to where it can survive without circulating coolant. With the diesels out (under water perhaps?) the plant relied on batteries to run the pumps — batteries good for only eight hours.
Tokyo Electric Power Company isn’t saying much. Utilities tend not to and Japanese utilities are notoriously secretive. But we got a clue to what’s happening from U. S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, of all people, who remarked that the U. S. military was delivering “coolant” to the stricken reactor.
“Coolant?” wondered aloud all the CNN and Fox News nuclear experts looking for a lede for their stories. “What is she talking about, coolant?” This is a boiling water reactor and the coolant is water. The U. S. Air Force isn’t needed to export water to Japan.
This shows the limits of cable news experts and maybe experts in general, because Hillary isn’t the kind of person to choose the wrong words. She said “coolant” and she meant “coolant.” Though she may not have known she was saying so, she also meant the reactor was dead and will never be restarted.
A boiling water reactor does just what it sounds like — it boils water to make steam that drives a turbine generator. This is as opposed to a pressurized water reactor that uses the nuclear reaction to heat a coolant that never really boils because it is under high pressure, then sends that coolant through a heat exchanger which heats water to make steam to drive the generator. Boiling water reactors are simpler, cheaper, but generally aren’t made anymore because they are perceived as being less safe. That’s because the exotic coolant in the pressurized water reactor can contain boric acid which absorbs neutrons and can help (or totally) control the nuclear reaction. You can’t use boric acid or any other soluble boron-laced neutron absorbers in a boiling water reactor because doing so would contaminate both the cooling system and the environment.
That’s why the experts didn’t expect it because they are still thinking of how the plant can be saved, but it can’t be.
Though the boiling water reactor has already been turned off by inserting neutron-absorbing control rods all the way into the core, adding boric acid or, more likely, sodium polyborate would turn the reactor off-er — more off than off — which could come in really handy in the event of a subsequent coolant loss, which reportedly has already happened. But that’s a $1 billion kill switch that most experts wouldn’t think to pull.
I’m guessing the US Navy delivered a load of sodium polyborate from some nuclear aircraft carrier reactor supply room in the Pacific Fleet. Its use indicates that the nuclear threat is even worse than presently being portrayed in the news. Tokyo Electric Power Company has probably given-up any hope of keeping those cooling pumps on after the batteries fail. Eventually they’ll vent the now boron-laced coolant to the atmosphere to keep containment pressures under control.
Sodium polyborate, by the way, is something you might use around the house, since it is the active ingredient in most flea and tick treatments.
An earthquake with such loss of life is bad enough, but Japan has also just lost 20 percent of its electric generating capacity. And I’ll go out on a limb here and predict that none of those 11 reactors will re-enter service again, they’ve been so compromised.
Automatic shutdown, what a concept!
If memory serves the TMI operators stopped the reactor from shutting down, not knowing there were serious problems.
There are times you need to leave the safety systems alone and let them do their job.
I remember the monitors for the generators were in a random order because they ran out of cable when they were install them…plus the switch to shutdown the reactor was labeled:
ON(CLOSE) – OFF (OPEN)
So Japan will lose 20% of it’s electric generating capacity? Since this electricity was produced by non-fossil fuels, and since it seems that the nuke plants that produced this electricity won’t be coming back on line anytime soon, how does Japan make up for the lost generating capacity in the near run? Coal? Natural gas? OIL? Yup, more large demand for fossil fuels….just as world prices for fossil fuels is skyrocketing. Looks like we’re in for some interesting times.
Jeez, is there anything you DON’T know? I hardly expected an analysis of a nuclear reactor from your blog, and there you go!
And charge the shutdown and decommissioning to the insurance companies.
Great article! I’d just been hearing vague stories about that nuclear reactor so this detailed insight was appreciated. It will be interesting to see how things play out over the next few days. Too bad Google News has it in for you because this article deserves a lot more play than AP copy and paste jobs.
Reuters is just reported:
“#Japan nuclear authorities say high possibility of meltdown at Fukushima Daiichi No. 1 reactor”
Not good.
Bob,
Too bad we do not have a directional tsunami weapon we can let loose to just wipe out Tripoli and bring a quick end to Quackdaffi’s rule. The amount of civilian casualty and damage wouldn’t be as bad as when the Libya situation drags out, and probably will work better than your EMP idea.
Too bad Japan could not have utilized the tsunami’s power to generate electricity. Nature is powerful, but hard to predict and to harness.
Bob.
I truly enjoy reading your blog and this article is no exception. KDeacon certainly summed it up… your breadth of knowledge is truly impressive.
It also helps to explain why Hilary was talking about coolant.
Makes me glad Australia does not have any mainline nuclear reactors….
We can all thank our stars it wasn’t a fast breeder reactor.
Meltdown of a conventional reactor is bad enough.
Since nobody has mentioned it yet, a second emergency has been declared at another nuclear power station.
From The Guardian:
Would be an absolute tragedy if another nuclear explosion happens on islands of japan…
Nuclear explosion? Are you under the mistaken impression that nuclear reactors are capable of detonating like a nuclear bomb? If so, put that out of your mind. Also see this report from Al Jazeera from just before 0700 GMT on 2011/03/12:
Japan fears nuclear plant meltdown
Excerpt:
Japanese nuclear authorities say there is a high possibility that nuclear fuel rods at a reactor at the Daiichi plant in Fukushima prefecture may be melting or have melted.
The cooling system of the plant was damaged in the massive earthquake that struck norteastern Japan and triggered a tsunami, killing at least 703 people.
Kyodo News agency said on Saturday that radioactive caesium had been detected near the plant, citing the Japanese nuclear safety commission.
…
The 8.9 quake and the tsunami cut the supply of off-site power to the plant and diesel generators intended to provide back-up electricity to the cooling system.
“The events that occurred at these plants, which is the loss of both offsite power and onsite power, is one of the rarest events to happen in a nuclear power plant, and all indications are that the Japanese do not have the situation under control,” “Edwin Lyman, a nuclear expert at the Union of Concerned Scientists, a US-based nonprofit organisation, said.
‘No Chernobyl possible’
However, Naoto Sekimura, a professor at the University of Tokyo, said a major radioactive disaster was unlikely.
“No Chernobyl is possible at a light water reactor. Loss of coolant means a temperature rise, but it also will stop the reaction,” he said.
“Even in the worst-case scenario, that would mean some radioactive leakage and equipment damage, but not an explosion. If venting is done carefully, there will be little leakage. Certainly not beyond the 3 km radius.”
There is a great article about this here:
https://www.businessinsider.com/fukushima-nuclear-plant-2011-3
Another version of what Robert says. And some of its comments are pretty good too.
——————————————————————————
Assuming all this is true and is really happening, I think the take away is 1) any nuclear reactor near a major fault is probably not designed/built to handle a worse case scenario, period. 2) The nuclear power industry might be in for a major setback. (Which is fine with me.)
Tom – a lot of good, smart, hard-working people with families are employed in the nuclear industry around the world, quite likely in your country too. And then, there are all of the secondary and tertiary businesses that support the nuclear industry (example, pump manufacturers, various trades for maintenance outages such as pipefitters, welders, electricians, to things as innocent as office supply companies – the nuclear industry generates a lot of documentation, you know, which is big business for software companies, computer hardware companies, office supply companies, IT service providers, you name it).
Why on earth would you wish a setback upon the industry, as that would obviously affect them and lead to people out of work? Do we really need more people out of work?
More people out of work = more taxes paid by people who are still working.
If the industry suffers a setback and more plants are shut down, they must be decommissioned, too, you know – which means, guess what, your taxes will go up even more.
Doesn’t seem like you’ve thought this through.
The same reasons can be used to justify war.
The difference being that in advanced countries, war happens somewhere else and does not get cleaned up, whereas nuclear power stations are in said countries and if they go wrong, do get cleaned up at enormous expense.
Some people try to avoid the problem in the first place by not having nuclear power stations.
The good thing is that nuclear is getting safer and cheaper as time goes by, and viable alternatives are not there.
We sort of have a choice between more Coal/Gas, Nuclear, and Green if you dont mind the lights going out when it is not windy/sunny.
I understand what you are saying (justifying production of weapons for war) – now, I don’t know what you do for a living and it is absolutely none of my business, but there just might be the possibility that whatever it is, someone somewhere doesn’t agree with it ethically because it somehow exploits people in another place, or causes environmental damage.
I mean, the computers you and I are using right now may have been made in factories with questionable human rights practices, and who knows what damage the companies do to the environment in spite of what they say they have done to clean up their manufacturing processes.
But we shouldn’t wish the whole electronics industry in Asia to fail because it is damaging the planet – we should recognize they have a lot of work to do, and help them.
I guess I am just saying I didn’t think it was fair to wish a whole industry to fail without considering the human cost.
I agree with you, we do have a choice – and I think we will see countries moving towards more natural gas plants, clean coal, etc. – nuclear is quite expensive when we use current technology (once through uranium fuel cycles) and the legacy costs are huge as well, when it comes to decommissioning.
I think eventually we may see smaller plants using fuels such as thorium (which would generate a lot less spent fuel – it can be a lot more efficient), but who knows?
Solar panels are becoming very inexpensive and much more efficient, and we will undoubtedly move towards that going forward – hey, the sun is free!
Good point 😉
Problems the nuclear energy industry has always had:
– Potentially very dangerous.
– Long lead time and a lot of money up front.
– No satisfactory waste solution.
I would prefer to see lots of jobs developing and implementing new energy tech. Imagine if we spent the last 20 years constantly funding things like solar and bio fuel. CFL and LED lights have made a huge difference. Efficiency is also important. How many jobs would be created retrofitting our buildings – I live in an uninsulated apartment (in California, so it is not so bad).
Frankly, the biggest problem we face is lack of leadership by our political leaders and greed by (current) industry leaders.
What huge difference have CFL and LED lights made? What percentage of total energy use are they responsible for? Let’s not forget that regular light bulbs also have a secondary heat purpose, so some of the savings is then lost due to higher heater usage.
What exactly is the government supposed to do to encourage alternative energy? If it could be made cheaply, people would do it.
We are talking about “light” bulbs, right? I doubt that most people are using “light” bulbs for heating.
“CFLs use 20 to 33 percent of the power of equivalent incandescent lamps.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compact_fluorescent_lamp
LEDs offer as good if not better efficiency than CFLs and have an incredibly long life. They are still evolving quite a bit and there are many different designs so it is not easy to generalize. In the San Jose area, most stop lights are composed of LEDs. The cities saved so much money in electricity and labor that they are close to 100% adopted by now.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light-emitting_diode
“In homes and offices from 20 to 50 percent of total energy consumed is due to lighting”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lighting
—————————————–
An important role that governments can play is funding basic research that does not promise to pay off quickly. A relatively small amount of money from the US budget can possibly offer huge returns. NASA, CDC, NOAA… probably have paid themselves back many times over.
[…] […]
TEPCO does have some interesting insights regarding the reactors with timelines published on their website:
https://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-com/release/index-e.html
Thanks for an intesting article, as usual.
Loosing power is better than the leaking of radiation, right?
Explosion reported at Fukushima Daiichi (No 1) reactor at 15:36 local time (06:30GMT). TV footage shows smoke rising from plant. Several workers were reported to have been injured.
As a few have said above – Great Article Bob! I remember you mentioning TMI in past reports. Thanks for explaining, in terms the average intelligent lay-man can understand, better than all news reports so far. That reading-between-the-lines is so much more considered and succinct than anyone else.
The building housing the reactor just blew up. How bad is that?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=pg4uogOEUrU#t=46s
Bob- great article. but i don’t think your ShareThis button is working. i tried to use it to share on facebook… didn’t work.
Thanks for an interesting read! I was a bit annoyed though by your hyphenation of verbs. When used as verbs (as opposed to in an adjectival role), “cool down”, “fire up” and, most jarringly, “give up” are not hyphenated.
methink Leon needs to chill-out a little
Capitalization, hyphenation, and punctuation! Are you trying to give Leon a heart attack? Seriously though, I appreciate Leon’s comment since there are numerous times when I’m uncertain about such things and need some guidance.
With you 100% there Leon.
PLEASE Mr Cringely don’t hyphenate things together unless you really think it is necessary! It isn’t in (I’d guess) 100% of the cases where you use it. Don’t do it. It’s wrong. It reads really-strangely.
It-makes me-cringe every-time, and I tried-to point-out how wrong it was recently to no-avail: https://www.cringely.com/2011/01/getting-my-groupon/comment-page-1/#comment-60243
I’m here in Tokyo watching this live and the main concern among most people is that we are not getting any real information. If this is true, and Hilary hinted at what is really happening, it is clear that Japan will have more than just their debt to worry about.
With Sendai in flames. Thousands missing/dead. We need truth not lies. Very sad.
Once again, Bob doesn’t have all the facts(*). FUKUSHIMA DAIICHI-1 was already scheduled to be shutdown this month.
https://www.icjt.org/plants/uni/a/uni194a.html
(and no, that wasn’t updated after the earthquake, either)
So if they do the nuclear power plant equivalent of a ‘top kill’, then they’ve not really pulled the billion dollar trigger, now have they?
(*) long ago I took Bob out when he started lying about what he’d done with wifi and a corner reflector
Bob’s article has other flaws.
Took me out? What does that mean? Nor do I see the relevance of your comment other than to point out that you are smarter than me.
Wait a minute while we all bask in the radiance of your awesome intellect. All hail Jim Thompson.
Although, y’know, you could do with growing a bit of a sense of proportion.
Simon Hibbs
[…] […]
Actually, a few errors in your analysis, from what I’ve read in the last day about the Fukushima reactors.
* The backup generators did start, but only ran for a few hours before failing. No information about why they failed. Though, considering that the plant infrastructure on the seaward side was wrecked by the tsunami, it’s not hard to accept. Maybe the fuel tanks were on that side?
* The coolant pumps are not electrically driven, but steam driven. (Makes sense – the KW/hr to run nuke plant injection pumps for 8 hours would require a ridiculous battery bank.) Only the control systems and actuators run on battery power. But that means the battery power is still just as essential.
* At least two reactors have failed to shut down correctly, not one.
* From the report of a US engineer who escaped from the Fukushima plant (as reported by his wife), the plant was severely damaged by the shocks, and then tsunami.
Now Reactor #1 has blown up. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pg4uogOEUrU
Reports are another (don’t know which plant) may be nearing the same.
Bob’s speculation about the use of boric acid has been confirmed.
“We’ve decided to fill the reactor container with sea water. Trade minister Kaieda has instructed us to do so. By doing this, we will use boric acid to prevent criticality.”
http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFTKZ00680620110312
Bob gets another one right. Well done man. How do you buy oil futures?
Has anyone read any reports that pinpoint the cause of the increased radiation levels? Is coolant escaping, or is it from a breach of the containment building?
Actually we had offered to supply coolant but the offer was deemed not necessary by the Japanese government, so the Air Force did not deliver any really important coolant after all.
Great Stuff, RxC. So what’s next in your cacophony of eclectic interests? Will we have columns on Xylitol, female reasoning, dowsing, purpose of balding, Urine Therapy?
Here’s an interesting prospect closer to what we’ve come to expect. The cost of electronic pieces and the future of computing: Where we are heading. John Dvorak thinks that tablets will be south of a hundred dollars pretty darn soon due to the minuscule prices of parts and bits. If so, what does that do to research and innovation?
Can or will Apple continue to invent the future if the future brings such skimpy profits? How soon before solar panels are as cheap and efficient as chipsets and hardware?
See https://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2381389,00.asp for an interesting read.
Dvorak has a really great record of prognostIcations that turned out to be total duds. I wish someone was keeping score. One fact he misses is that Apple seems to have locked up key components (including future growth of these) hence both assuring economy of scale and starvation of competitors. Where’s the $30 tablet from India? Phones may well drop to $0 but you still have to fork out $60 a month for data access.
Nuclear is not dead, neither is wind or solar our salvation. Untill battery technology takes at least an order of magnitude leap in charge densities, we will still rely on instant, anytime generation. Maybe Apple will be behind that? Sure would have a larger impact on society that a finger-loving screen (which I’m using right now…).
True, or we figure out how an easy energy efficient method of splitting hydrogen from water (then we split the hydrogen and store for creating energy when the sun is not shining). Unfortunately electrolysis is the only choice at the moment and it is not particularly efficient.
Absolutely right, Jim. Dvorak throws a lot of darts at the wall but a few do stick. What I like about the man is that he thinks outside the box, even if it’s raining most of the time. And he takes photographs and he has finally come back to meander on the Apple path occasionally.
Which means he acquiesces that I was right and was wrong all along. 🙂
He famously said “The Macintosh uses an experimental pointing device called a ‘mouse’. There is no evidence that people want to use these things.” Yet with the iPad, Apple finally took his advice: no mouse.
[…] Speculation that the coolant Hillary Clinton mentioned was sodium polyborate, which would permanentl… […]
>Hillary isn’t the kind of person to choose the wrong words
She did choose the wrong words.
https://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/11/japan-quake-nuclea… “US did not deliver coolant to Japan nuclear reactor”
“Ultimately, however, Japan did not need assistance from the United States but Clinton did not appear to have been updated before she made her public remarks.”
So is this a problem because of old reactor technology, or are all reactors similarly problematic? If the former, then shutting down these plants and replacing them with more modern technology is actually a benefit.
You were right Bob: boric acid and seawater being pumped in . . .
https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/03/12/AR2011031205493.html
How is it that a reactor that generates 20% of Japan’s power and in real terms ‘is the grid’ can be in a position of relying on the ‘grid’ to operate – and when the grid goes down from “whatever” – starts a bunch of diesel generators to ‘self-propel’ itself. You must be kidding!! We are talking about a ‘perpetual machine’ here! Gee, we’ve had an earthquake and tidal waves have short-circuited the braked switch! Let’s start a bunch I’d generators that are – what! Going to fail! – like nobody did the weekly maintenance check! Quick… Let’s us an eight-hour battery pack! And when it dies, let’s start the meltdown software program and run for high ground!
Like…. Give me a break! Who’s running the show there? Good grief!
OK… Calm down Sandy, I must be missing something here. People can’t be that stupid. I’ll just watch the news and all the answers will appear. Or, I’ll keep reading Bob’s blog and eventually I’ll learn it all. 🙂
Great posts guy! (except for mine)
Hi Sandy,
Maybe a retired CPA can answer your questions. Here goes.
When a nuclear reactor is operating normally, it produces electricity that goes onto the electrical grid. When a nuclear reactor has been shut down abruptly, because of some problem, the fuel rods have to be cooled down. This requires a source of electricity to operate the coolant pumps. Since the nuclear reactor is no longer producing electricity, it has to get the power from diesel generators or batteries on site, or from the electrical grid (supplied by other generating facilities off site).
Guess what; none of the three above “backup” sources of power are available due to the earthquakes and resulting flood damages.
Nice post. I’m relieved. You might be interested in a historical tidbit I sent my friends:
Dear All:
In 1968 I was the staff (action) officer for a joint visit of our then Atomic Energy Commission and the Japanese Atomic Energy agency during their visit to Washington, D.C. The Japanese then had a completely open nuclear energy program with which we were most willing to cooperate on peaceful exchanges of information. (I’m sure, but do not know, if that is the case today.)
There was one particular particular note of levity during the proceedings which I remember well. Our Commissioners asked their Japanese counterparts if they wanted a cooperative program on safety concerns regarding earthquakes. They replied, “no.” The Americans replied, “why not?” “We don’t build nuclear plants near earthquake faults,” laughter ensued on the American side until the Japanese responded, “we have records going back 5,000 years.”
We promptly moved on to other subjects.
As I understand what happened to the plant, it was earthquake proof, but the tidal wave cut off power used to circulate cooling water, necessary to avert a meltdown, and so we are faced not with a potential “China Syndrome,” but a “Peoria one.” [I know, I know, the meltdown is unlikely to pass clear through the earth’s core!]
We should have asked about tsunamis.
[…] our pants should be yellow or brown.UPDATE: Wow, thanks to Dan Collins for the e-mail tip about a fascinating post by Bob Cringely:Though the boiling water reactor has already been turned off by inserting neutron-absorbing control […]
Keep us updated on your thoughts on this one Bob, your insights are most valuable.
The situation seems full of spin that changes hourly.
[…] I’m guessing the US Navy delivered a load of sodium polyborate from some nuclear aircraft carrier reactor supply room in the Pacific Fleet. Its use indicates that the nuclear threat is even worse than presently being portrayed in the news. Tokyo Electric Power Company has probably given-up any hope of keeping those cooling pumps on after the batteries fail. Eventually they’ll vent the now boron-laced coolant to the atmosphere to keep containment pressures under control. Sodium polyborate, by the way, is something you might use around the house, since it is the active ingredient in most flea and tick treatments.” [source] […]
It looks pretty bad until you compare it with what is happening with the coal plants.
http://media.cleveland.com/plain-dealer/photo/-2f61be538d99346d.jpg
2GW of generating power reduced to rubble.
Haramachi coal power generation plant in Minamisoma, Fukushima.
[…] to try and cool the reactor, now they’re using sea water and the US are sending coolant (Cringely thinks it’s sodium polyborate). No one knows if that’s going to be […]
I don’t know if this is true or not, but someone told me there isn’t any record of Japanese civilization prior to 3000 BC. Why not? Massive volcanic eruption? This is an geologically active area. Fertile soil from the volcanic ash though.
From the BBC:
A former nuclear power plant designer has said Japan is facing an extremely grave crisis and called on the government to release more information, which he said was being suppressed. Masashi Goto told a news conference in Tokyo that one of the reactors at the Fukushima-Daiichi plant was “highly unstable”, and that if there was a meltdown the “consequences would be tremendous”. He said such an event might be very likely indeed.
Mr Goto said the reactors at the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear plant were suffering pressure build-ups way beyond that for which they were designed. There was a severe risk of an explosion, with radioactive material being strewn over a very wide area – beyond the 20km evacuation zone set up by the authorities – he added. Mr Goto calculated that because Reactor No 3 at Fukushima-Daiichi – where pressure is rising and there is a risk of an explosion – used a type of fuel known as Mox, a mixture of plutonium oxide and uranium oxide, the radioactive fallout from any meltdown might be twice as bad.
He accused the government of deliberately withholding vital information that would allow outside experts help solve the problems. “For example, there has not been enough information about the hydrogen being vented. We don’t know how much was vented and how radioactive it was.” He also described the use of sea water to cool the cores of the reactors at Fukushima-Daiichi as highly unusual and dangerous.
He described the worst-case scenario: “It is difficult to say, but that would be a core meltdown. If the rods fall and mix with water, the result would be an explosion of solid material like a volcano spreading radioactive material. Steam or a hydrogen explosion caused by the mix would spread radioactive waste more than 50km. Also, this would be multiplied. There are many reactors in the area so there would be many Chernobyls.”
It’s a good sign that the pressure in the core is rising. That means the core pressure vessel is still intact, and hasn’t had a hole melted through it. If the pressure suddenly drops to zero, it’s probably too late to run.
Hard to believe that there isn’t a failsafe cooling system powered by the cores heat. •Activated by high temperature. •No moving parts. •More heat results in more flow (negative feedback via a closed, natural convection loop or similar).
Here’s some perspective on the Japan Earthquake, written by a resident, some plausible sounding background on the problems at least one of the reactors has, a little note about radiation levels “a 1000 times normal”, and my own bit about the amazing levels of civil engineering and disaster preparedness in Japan.
I worry a bit more about reactor 3 at this point, but it sounds as though reactor 1 is safed.
Build not one but 50 nuclear reactors practically on top of the worlds most active seismic fault, near the ocean, expose them to tsunamis, inadequate redundance in the emergency power generating capability and we have incompentence and irresponsibility of the highest degree.
As one user commented elsewhere, these guys should get a f…..g medal for brilliance in thinking!
“Documents from Tokyo Electric, the operator of the Japanese nuclear plants in crisis after Friday’s devastating quake and tsunami, reveal that the company tested the Fukushima plant to withstand a quake up to magnitude 7.9. That threshold is well below the force of Friday’s quake, recently upgraded to 9.0.” source: https://www.boingboing.net/
My favorite Nuclear accident happened in a Japanese reprocessing plant. The workers wanted a early minute and so doubled the mixing of nuclear material from 1 quart to 2 quarts — well they regretted their efforts for the 3 odd hours they lived!
Since 1942 the world has multiplied radioactivity by at least a million times.
AND expect it to respect human stupidity!!
Lets not forget the hidden ecological devastation progressing from the burial of radioactive material in artesian water in NW USA since 1942 and to last 100’s of years!
Elaborate, clarify, and cite sources, please. That statement makes little grammatical and no scientific sense.
I visited the site today expecting to find commentary about the events in Japan. What I didn’t know, though, was that it would be more informative than most of what I have seen so far from the traditional news websites. So, thanks for that.
Clarification: U.S. nuclear powered vessels do not have sodium polyborate supplies aboard. Emergency fill sources for damaged reactor vessels are limited to pure water storage tanks, and in extremis, sea water. It would be difficult to pump water or anything else into a pressurized core without electrically driven high-pressure pumps in any event.
It must be nice to be right *nearly* all the time! 🙂 NBC Nightly News was reporting exactly what you were saying about shutting down the reactors only about 48 hours after you first said it.
Good job, Mr. Cringely.
[…] Bob Cringley, who worked as an investigator for the Presidential Commission on the Accident at Three Mile Island on the thinks most of the 11 reactors will be a write off. […]
US warships helping the effort have now moved away from the reactor area due to “low level” radioactivity . . . how “low” is “low” anyway?
https://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/14/us-japan-quake-specialreport-idUSTRE72D25B20110314
Finally something that explains what is happening with the Japanese reactors! Thanks for your insight Bob.
I think your assessment might be slightly wrong, as there have been numerous reports of the USA stating very firmly that they have not delivered any “coolant” to Japan following the quake:
“WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. military did not provide any coolant for a Japanese nuclear plant affected by a massive earthquake on Friday, U.S. officials said.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton earlier had said that U.S. Air Force “assets” had delivered “some really important coolant” to a Japanese nuclear power plant.
One U.S. official said he believed Clinton was told Japan had requested the material, that the United States had agreed to provide it, and that an operation to do so was under way.
Ultimately, however, Japan did not need assistance from the United States but Clinton did not appear to have been updated before she made her public remarks.
“We understand that ultimately the Japanese government handled the situation on its own,” said another U.S. official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.”
1. https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2687445/posts
2. https://www.wgntv.com/sns-rt-international-us-japtre72a7vf-20110311,0,1061245.story
3. https://www.nextlevelofnews.com/2011/03/reuters-us-did-not-deliver-coolant-to-japan-nuclear-reactor.html
4. https://www.wnep.com/sns-rt-international-us-japtre72a8am-20110311,0,7478034.story
I think your assessment of the situation might be slightly worng, as there have been numerous reports that the USA did not deliver any coolant to Japan following the quake on Friday:
“WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. military did not provide any coolant for a Japanese nuclear plant affected by a massive earthquake on Friday, U.S. officials said.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton earlier had said that U.S. Air Force “assets” had delivered “some really important coolant” to a Japanese nuclear power plant.
One U.S. official said he believed Clinton was told Japan had requested the material, that the United States had agreed to provide it, and that an operation to do so was under way.
Ultimately, however, Japan did not need assistance from the United States but Clinton did not appear to have been updated before she made her public remarks.
“We understand that ultimately the Japanese government handled the situation on its own,” said another U.S. official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.”
1. https://www.wnep.com/sns-rt-international-us-japtre72a8am-20110311,0,7478034.story
2. https://www.nextlevelofnews.com/2011/03/reuters-us-did-not-deliver-coolant-to-japan-nuclear-reactor.html
3. https://www.wgntv.com/sns-rt-international-us-japtre72a7vf-20110311,0,1061245.story
4. https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2687445/posts
This makes zero sense.
You’re honestly claiming that experts on nuclear power who are struggling valiantly for days to try to prevent major release to the surroundings, evacuating hundreds of thousands of people as a precaution — nevertheless operate under the assumption that “solutions which would permanently destroy the reactor, are off the table”
A $1 billion kill-switch doesn’t sound bad at *all* compared to, in essence, having a Chernobyl in downtown Tokyo – hell it’d be a bargain at 100 times the price.
I believe when Bob said “that’s a $1 billion kill switch that most experts wouldn’t think to pull”, he was referring to “CNN and Fox News nuclear experts” he mentioned earlier, and not those actually at the plant.
Gunnar, downtown Tokyo is approximately 180 miles by car from Fukushima city itself, which is also a significant distance from Fukushima Daiichi 1.
Ben: take a step back and think about this a second: When Chernobyl blew it’s stack, the Soviets kept mum about it until a nuclear plant in SCANDINAVIA started recording workers that had contaminated clothing — workers that were on their way *TO* *WORK*. Now I’m not sure of the distances between Chernobyl and that Scandinavian plant (the details of which escape me just now. I’m sure Wikipedia has some decent info on it), but I know with 100% certainty that there are parts of Belarus and Russia that are still so contaminated as to be considered unfit for human habitation that are in excess of 200 miles from the reactor. Yes, it was weather driven, and yes, there are parts that are closer than 200 miles that are clean, but I doubt there’s an expert that’s worth the time it would take to pronounce their name that would hesitate to permanently squelch a badly broken reactor if the risk of another Chernobyl (which has been compared as being bigger than Hiroshima and Nagasaki). The Japanese have in-depth first hand knowledge as to just how some isotopes can harm human tissue, and if they’re running out of first hand knowledge, I’m sure there are people in Ukraine, Belarus, Russia, and a whole bunch of other European countries that can lend them first hand and scientifically proven data.
I’m thinking that Gunnar’s right. The Japanese may be trying to salvage the reactor, or they may be getting ready to throw (or have already thrown) that Billion Dollar Kill Switch. But I think it’s blatantly preposterous to think that anyone would be using any financial considerations if they had any kind of reputation as an ‘expert’ that they had any desire to maintain.
Furthermore, I would give any articles from a site that would call itself “Brave New Climate -dot- Com”, and any articles therein regarding engineering written by anyone but a qualified expert in Nuclear Engineering (Economists need not apply) a very cynical reading.
Chernobyl “meltdown” released radioactive material into the atmosphere – which traveled world wide – falling to earth everywhere! Radioactive iodine from Chernobyl fell on pasture lands across Canada. Naturally cows ate the radioactive iodine laced grass growing in the pastures.
The Canadian Federal government tested the milk coming from the above cows, for radioactive iodine; and got readings of 10 to 20 times the legally maximum level allowed! The latter milk was still sold to an unwitting public. Imagine the impact on a young child’s thyroid gland. 400,000 people world wide came down with cancer as a result of this radio active iodine and other isotopes!
Everyone also needs to know that all “safe” operating plants on this planet are killing infants every week. There is no such thing as a safe nuke plant. They all leak radioactive isotopes – everyday – all days! The nuke industry euphemistically re-names the leaks to “emissions”.
The world’s foremost expert on the nuclear sponsored radiation illness and death, is biometric specialist Dr. Rosalie Bertell (she’s a nun, mathematician, scientist – for example, you no longer get an annual tuberculosis chest X-ray because of Bertell’s research for the USA gov.)
http://books.google.com/books?id=Rdgo5cXrO94C&pg=PA6&lpg=PA6&dq=dr.+rosalie+bertell+nuclear+power+plants+down+wind&source=bl&ots=AOzscOd8MA&sig=sbp9ALMUdQmA9NIqevxDxtj_7N8&hl=en&ei=p0yHTbbqB46tgQfiuPXLC…
The nuclear plant is 200 miles from Tokyo, so the remark that this is like having Chernobyl in downtown Tokyo is hyperbole, at best, and a complete misrepresentation of the two incidents. Chernobyl was driven completely by human errors and that the Soviets were too cheap to put the reactors in containment vessels. Here is a blog entry by an American who works in Japan about how this event played out. It is really worth your time to read it.
https://www.kalzumeus.com/2011/03/13/some-perspective-on-the-japan-earthquake/
Saw the link in Risks Digest earlier today. Thanks to Peter G. Neumann.
http://bravenewclimate.com/2011/03/13/fukushima-simple-explanation/
I think this might help explain some of the things going on there. It’s not as bad as the media would have you think.
good review…. obviously, the presence of radioactive cesium and iodine was the ‘sky is falling’ trigger for the newsmongers, who want to ‘latch eyeballs’ to their commercial laden feeds.
I do think that the fact that the US Navy shipping in ‘coolant’ is the appropriate ‘staging’ of next steps (you don’t want to take any supplies away from other reactors, because of the potential of aftershocks causing further problems.
Most of my twits have acknowledged the overengineering of the Japanese plants.
I think the bigger question is, after 40 years, is the risk analysis flawed. Knocking 10-20% of the power off the grid, given today’s dependency on electricity – Should be be engineering in more resiliency (and/or replacing 40 year old design with newer, safer, and hopefully smaller PBRs and the like). And that then leads to spent fuel handling and ‘permanent’ containment. Can Mother Nature defeat any overengineered solution?
Please note that fukushima-simple-explanation was written not by a nuclear expert, nor even by an engineer, but by an economist. Furthermore, it was written to his family in Japan but was published to the Web by his cousin, where it went viral. The Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering at MIT has issued corrections to its many errors.
Do not for a minute think there is no danger of a meltdown, as subsequent events have shown. Worst case? All four damaged reactors will melt down releasing lethal radioactivity, the wind will shift, and Tokyo will be toast.
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Taking the long term view, how will Japan replace all of that generating capacity?
Nuclear? Very Doubtful.
Hydro? Not much capacity there.
Solar? Doubtful that it has enough to support the commercial economy, but maybe for home/residential power.
I’m thinking natural gas possibly or some other hydrocarbon (not coal).
Their economy is really screwed if they don’t have the electrical capacity to power it.
I don’t know that they’ll have a choice. The fact that Japan had very few natural resources of their own was one of the driving factors behind their pre- and during-WWII expansion plans. An economy of their scale is going to need to get that capacity back and fairly quickly. Otherwise energy costs are going to skyrocket, and that will do more to destroy the Japanese economy than just about anything else. Unless someone can come up with some way of generating the hundreds of thousands to millions of megawatts that they’ve lost due to the earthquake damaged nuclear power stations, they’re going to be in for a very serious economic downturn. I’m sure that this, in conjunction with the economic nastiness in the US and elsewhere, could potentially cripple one of the largest economies in the world.
And no, I don’t have any answers either.
Folks:
The #1 Reactor was in service over 40 years ago, and on another Site there is a comment about a planned removal from service next year. So the out-of-sequence permanent shutdown is no joke to the Utility’s plans for supplying electricity to the customers, but it is not that big a hit. I do not see Japan wanting to pay for the huge, and ever-growing, cost of Natural Gas, via Cryogenic Tankers, to a major natural gas-fuelled Electrical Utility.
Nuclear Reactor Designs have evolved, quite a bit, over the last 50 years. There is the “liquid-thorium fluoride reactor”. See [http://energyfromthorium.com/].
Since _I_ live in the Canadian province of Alberta, in the southern part, I see quite a few WindFarms going up. The proponents all claim that WindFarm electricity comes from a free wind source, and is reliable. Heh. I grew up on a mixed farm, 8.5 miles SW of Claresholm, Alberta, and shared, with neighbouring teenagers, the hated experience of pumping water, by hand, for domestic animals, when the wind did not blow, or blew too weak, or blew too strong. Some of our neighbours had 32V DC Winchargers, on top of a tower that had a 12 ft by 12 foot square building at its base, Two thirds of that building was filled with lots of shelves of 6V lead-acid batteries, arranged in 6 x 6 in Series, then as many as it took, of those Series chains, in Parallel, to have enough plate area to run the Farmstead during the unsuitable wind times. When the batteries got too weak, a 32V DC Delco generator was spun by a gasoline engine.
In closing, I point out an interesting lack: There have been Zero pictures of Wind&Solar Emergency Power Trailers being loaded on aircraft flying to Japan. But there were no pictures of such working at New Orleans, after Katrina, either.
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This is late, but one thing worth point out is the favorable weather patterns.
In winter time, most of East Asia gets no precip at all. The reason is because of the Siberian High Pressure system that develops over Southern Siberia/Nothern Mongolia during the winter months. This controls all of Asia’s climate east of Afghanistan. It is that powerful of a high pressure zone.
Each March, high winds from the Gobi desert (on the China Mongolia border) push “Yellow Dust” (top soil) over Korea and Japan (the result of over grazing/farming in that region). This is a well known irritant and health problem every year in March to the Koreans and to a lessor extant the Japanese.
So, for the most part, the prevailing winds, at least for the rest of March, are likely to be from the west moving to the east.
For the most part then, Tokyo and the rest of Japan should be safe. However over the next three months, as the high pressure system desolves, a massive low pressure system develops over Northern Afghanistan/Pakistan/China/Central Asia (about where all these nations border, essentially). That lower pressure system creates the summer monsoons that brings massive amounts of rain to all of Asia east of the Indus river – Including Japan and Korea.
At that point the winds reverse. The real danger then, isn’t to Tokyo, but to Northern and eastern Japan, Korea, Manchuria and Russia’s Far Eastern territories and China proper itself.
I’m pretty sure the problem will be fixed by then. Of course that doesn’t mean a wind towards Tokyo couldn’t develope, but it is unlikely. I’m willing to believe that this phenomina is the reason they built the power plant where they did in the first place – because otherwise, the plant on the west coast would be more isolated from Tsunami’s and Earth Quakes.
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