If 2010 was the year of cloud computing that means 2011 is the year we’ll actually start using it in earnest. That further means 2011 will be the year that cloud computing lets us down. Everything in IT fails eventually, though the big myth is that won’t happen with cloud computing. Hogwash.
We haven’t seen a cloud virus or a cloud trojan — yet — but we will. Imagine what would happen if the cloud became a zombie. It is only a matter of time.
There’s also the issue of what happens when some cloud service goes out of service permanently? These are startups, remember, and a good percentage of startups fail. Some cloud computing outfit is going to quickly and quietly shut down, taking with it the data (business, photos, video, memories, etc.) of tens of thousands of users. Once we’re storing everything in the cloud, what’s to keep us from losing everything in the cloud?
And in the short term we’re going to also see a lot of cloud screw-ups. Apple, for example, is taking back from Akamai control of iTunes distribution, which is fine except early reports say they aren’t doing a very good job. Their new system isn’t respecting DNS and Apple is too stupid or arrogant to realize it. This leads us to Apple’s peculiar failing in the cloud space, which is that Steve Jobs wants to own it in his own way.
Steve loves it when Apple rolls its own. So Apple didn’t buy some Content Distribution Network or a little company with real expertise in this area — Steve just handed it to a couple very good engineers who — other than being very smart — had no background in the subject. Steve loves to do that, but unfortunately it leads to problems as often as it does to brilliance. They’ll work it out I’m sure, but for now understand that we’re in the very early cloud years with lots of mischief yet to come.
But the Carolina datacenter built by Apple is where it’s placing it’s bets because it no longer trusts anyone else not to screw the company (least of all Google). The key to the cloud is storage but the DNS problems are all about distribution. Where is Apple building it’s local caches? Is it investing in a parallel pipe network akin to Akamai.
The issue over cloud computing is not necessarily data loss but data integrity and privacy. People are becoming aware of such issues with FaceBook and Google and there will be a backlash. Apple will sell its system as a premium cloud, private and secure – like bank deposit boxes.
Short memories, or weren’t there in the first place. The original cloud was IBM Service Bureau. It turned out to be more grief than it was worth, and IBM sold it.
https://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,903788,00.html
Uh, from what I’m reading the iTunes slowdowns are caused by Akamai, not by Apple switching away from them. There is a good description of the problem here:
http://joemaller.com/2577/itunes-slowdowns-with-google-dns/
Bob is right, the real issue with cloud computing is data loss. I had a data crash a few years ago involving a client at a server farm. The ISPs server went down and it took nearly a week to recover the server. It had corruption problems with the database and drives kept failing. This was naturally 20 days before the opening of the festival the Web site was promoting. We couldn’t transfer the domain easily because the email contact for the admin was using the same domain name. The owner of the domain has since made a change in that practice.
Another example was the Virgin/Sprint Helio fiasco. All of the people who bought a Sprint Helio loved the phones. They were released in early 2007 but customers were informed the service would be turned off on May 25, 2010. The only way to remove data from a Helio was through the Web site. Once the Web site went dark, there was no way to retrieve the contact information unless you retyped all of the information yourself.
A few friends went through this fiasco and I did my best to attempt to sync the phone to anything using any process. There was simply no way to retrieve the data and nobody at Sprint or Virgin was of any use.
This experience has taught me that you cannot rely on big corporations. Apple has killed services, Sprint, Yahoo and others have all killed off Web site services which means information or identities tied to those Web sites becomes useless. I am not so sure a nameless cloud will be any better.
It’s also taught me to remind people to back up your information. If you’re reading this, take a moment to back up your data devices. Phones, Web sites, computers. You really never know when you could find scrambling to look for a back-up to do a restore.
See also http://ascii.textfiles.com/archives/1717 for a disgruntled look at cloud services closing down with data held hostage.
True, true, and true. But how many companies (aka Steve) routinely create new product categories? I don’t need an iPad, but the world needs Apple (aka Steve).
Hey, sweet. The Love Over Gold album cover! Total makeout disc.
Those of us who used Sidekicks a couple of years ago know full well the pain of relying on a cloud that’s more brittle than advertised.
Truth! ‘Cloud’ is the biggest, most egregious Ponzi scheme since
Bernie Maddoff..
And no one can put 2+2 together!
Cloud – composed of ‘vapor’…. ha ha
If there’s a thousand zombies loose in some cloud’s data-center somewhere my prediction is that someone will care enough to actually disinfect those servers. This would be a refreshing change.
Absolutely. I’m not saying that the cloud won’t become a zombie, but I expect such an incident to be brief if it happens. Cloud services are, at least, backed by a competent technical staff with a serious interest in keeping their service zombie free. Better this than the zillions of half-baked Windows boxes owned by Mr and Mrs Average which are already out there and permanently overburdened with malware. If these were replaced with thin clients and cloud back-ends, it would be a major step forward.
— Cloud services are, at least, backed by a competent technical staff with a serious interest in keeping their service zombie free.
Only if the “cloud service” is held to an SLA coupled to severe (criminal) penalties. And that ain’t gonna happen. This is just the same old bait and switch.
Drop.io – a successful cloud storage system – suddenly announced at the end of October that it had been bought out by Facebook, and all accounts would be closed and all files deleted.
At least they gave 6 weeks notice, but if you had built anything that relied on their service – tough.
And don’t forget geocities. One of the earliest cloud services, for hosting and publishing your web pages … and it is no more. So we’ve already seen what happens when a cloud service folds.
See Dilbert today
https://www.dilbert.com/2011-01-07/
ahh, you beat me to the punch
but then I was a bit stuck in the cloud as the billable work does come first
This is timely Bob
I notice the analysts are massively talking up ‘secure’ cloud services for corporations. But has Wikileaks torpedoed Corporate Cloud computing below the waterline?
I honestly see the cloud as just another way to bilk people out of another monthly fee – forever.
I don’t like it, I’m tired of everyone looking for the monthly fee. I get it, great business model, if you can count on a monthly check coming in, but as the consumer we get screwed every time.
In reality, how many people really need all their files in the cloud to be able to access them anywhere? It’s one of those things that sounds really cool, and it is, but do most people have that need? And the cost of storing old files that you may rarely if ever reference on someone else’s server?
I see it like garage storage units that people fill with furniture, you spend $5000 for 10 years to store a couch worth $350
Seems like a high cost for little return.
Cloudburst…
I’ve never felt comfortable about the so-called cloud and the concept of it being the new home to all of my data. For anyone who questions authority or has any interest in privacy the cloud is extremely questionable but when it comes to data secu…
The main reason I’ve never bought into “the Cloud” is because I want my data to be available 100% of the time. The Cloud is not available 100% of the time:
Driving your car thru a tunnel or into a parking garage? No Cloud. Get on an airplane with no WiFi (or try to use the WiFi below 10,000ft)? No Cloud. Travel to rural Wyoming? No Cloud. Have AT&T as a cell provider? Frequent Cloud outages.
Data is useless if you can’t get to it. Until the Cloud has the reliability of other utilities that we take for granted (water, electricity), Cloud computing is a pipe dream.
As for the “cloudburst” prediction, does anyone have guesses as to the first one to fall? I am wondering how stable DropBox is. Sure, it’s popular but how is their revenue stream doing?
What about industrial sabotage? If a competitor learns that you have data and the applications to use that data in the cloud, wouldn’t severing or severely limiting access disrupt your work flow, enough to give your competitor an advantage?
It would be tempting even to the most noble of companies.
Everyone here has nailed pretty much every argument I’ve had against the “cloud” concept for many years. While I have no problem using it as a conduit to sync data to remote devices for backing up, you need to consider issues of security that a simple mirror and carry offsite approach would give you — either than, or using secure tunnels to mirror data to a remote site directly through the fog.
I have never understood cloud computing. Why would I want to put my data oyt there where it can be lost or compromised when I can do it all cheaply with my Mac a backup dis and a 64GB flash drive. It reminds me of tie share computing from the 70’s. It was cost effective for a short time but then the bottom fell out.
Hey Bob, just a quick thought. I’m not above admitting when I’m wrong, but aren’t most modern viruses cloud computing applications by definition? In fact, not only are they cloud computing applications, but they’re very successful cloud computing applications. And, not only are they successful and proven, but in this particular case… it’s probably safe to say that there were no practical applications of cloud computing before cloud viruses. Remember NIMDA? For what felt like the longest time, you couldn’t even so much as finish a windows install without catching it. It was absolutely brilliant in how brutal and effective it was. Not to mention the millions, maybe billions of very successful cloud viruses that we’ve been fortunate enough to find in the decade since…
[…] This post was mentioned on Twitter by The Cloud Network , Robert X. Cringely, Eric E Lawrence, Joe Da Silva, Abdul Jaleel Kay Kay and others. Abdul Jaleel Kay Kay said: 2011 prediction #8: Cloudburst (I, Cringely) http://bit.ly/h02p40 […]
Cloud is just another iteration of the dot bomb free service nonsense. Few users will be willing to pay for “premium” services. Most of these will never make a profit and will die. That is my prediction for 2012. Dot bomb 2.
The hardware vendors will do well though.
I paid $800, $300 + disk drives, for a network storage box. 6TB of RAID 5. Holds all of my data.
Why do companies keep trying to bring back the mainframe computing experience. It died decades ago. Let it rest in peace!
$$$…To sell more devices and to sell us on the need to sync them and pay for both either directly or indirectly through ads.
How are any of the problems being described fundamentally different from non cloud apps/services/storage? They aren’t.
The issue over cloud computing is not necessarily data loss but data integrity and privacy.
The issue over cloud computing is not necessarily data loss but data integrity and privacy.
“Cloud Computing” is just a contemptible marketing term. I remember the big “Client-Server” buzz of about 15 years ago. It encapsulated stuff which already existed into a slick buzzword and tried to sell it for lots of money. Same thing here.
Oh, there’ll be good business models and great services to come out of the whole thing, to be sure, but as a semantic concept, I hope it dies so I can stop cringing.
As for the actual nuts and bolts, I am ambivalent about the business model. I have done some time at an prominent ASP. The environment was not good, and they margins were obviously such that they had to run things on a shoestring, hence their infrastructure sucked to the point of continual almost-collapse, and worse, on occasion.
I predict there’ll be a few years of frenetic startup activity followed by lots of “Crap, that is never going to really work” before the relatively few solid players settle down into their business and think of something else entirely to call it to distance themselves from the preceding mess.
[…] si este va a ser el año de la consagración de la cloud computing, probablemente también será el año en que nos va a decepcionar. No se trata de hacer profecías apocalípticas ni ser especialmente pesimista, sino quizás más […]
Your prediction for 2011 regarding to cloudburst seems to be very accurate… At least in my country…
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I use a combination of local and cloud storage. For cloud, I mostly use Dropbox and Windows Live SkyDrive.
But that’s true, that’s the one which makes the first impression. Nice tips.
I continue to be amazed at how this discussion has gone way beyond what I said. :–)
I know Mint is said to be putting out some pretty decent stuff… but I just cannot stand all that bilious green.
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