I came across this news story today in which a Russian space official suggests the US consider using trampolines to get astronauts and supplies to the International Space Station. It’s all about economic sanctions applied to Russia over its annexation of Crimea and other meddling in Ukraine. The Russian space agency, you see, has been hard hit by the cancellation of at least five launches. Except according to my friends in the space biz Russia hasn’t been hurt at all.
Space customers pay in advance, way in advance. All five cancelled NASA launches were paid for long ago and the same for a number of now-delayed private launches. They may go ahead or not, it’s hard to say. But nobody in Russia is losing sleep over the problem because the space agency will actually make more money keeping the launchers on their pads than by firing them.
In time the sanctions may have some effect, but not for at least another year. At present the only people being hurt by these particular sanctions are Americans.
This is not to say the sanctions aren’t worth doing. Maybe they will be key to achieving US policy objectives. But they aren’t as they seem.
Yes, things are not as they seem. US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland has admitted that the US has spent $5 billion since 1991 on detaching Ukraine from Russia:
http://youtu.be/2y0y-JUsPTU?t=7m26s
A democratic government (whatever its faults) was overthrown in the Ukraine, and some extreme right-wingers and neo-Nazi’s from organizations financed by the US are now members of the new ruling junta.
Putin was never going to stand by quietly and lose control of Crimea, the base of Russia’s Black Sea fleet since 1783, while Ukraine joined NATO, whatever the pipe-dreams of the US may have been.
In this case, Russia is simply safeguarding its own legitimate interests from aggressive Western expansionism.
Just like Allende and Pinochet: lather, rinse, repeat.
“Now it’s all gone to hell. Russia’s state-run media has launched a lunatic hate campaign claiming Ukraine is the center of all that is evil on the planet”
They wouldn’t claim that – They’ll claim the US is the center of all evil – ORIENTAL REVIEW is an independent state-run Internet journal, launched by a group of freelance bloggers and political analysts concerned with the world.
“Victoria Nuland has admitted that the US has spent $5 billion”
Nuland’s: “Fuck the EU” upstaged her king making comments:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWkfpGCAAuw&list=UUEHsSWvrGVSIA63OV3J6vhA
“The relationship with Ukraine was stressed due to the Holodomor etc”
Millions died of starvation and malnutrition in British India in 1943 but who’s counting? Food prices are a factor in famines – BioDiesel Humers?
In 2008, the EU recognised the Holodomor as a crime against humanity. The guilt was put on Stalin -however, the report did not provide answers to questions:
• why did the capitalists refuse Stalin’s gold?
• why did they only want to receive grain from the USSR as payment? In 1934, grain exports from the USSR completely stopped-By order of the Soviet government…
In 1924, Soviet gold chervonets were replaced by a softer rouble without golden equivalent. The menace to the US dollar and British pound was diminished. Western countries refused to accept gold as payment when trading with Soviet Union. The “gold blockade” allowed the USSR to pay for machinery and equipment by oil, timber and grains. (Interestingly, they still accepted pre-revolution Imperial Russian golden coins – the currency of a non-existent state was not dangerous”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor#Causes
http://orientalreview.org/2012/12/17/episodes-10-who-organised-famine-in-the-ussr-in-1932-1933/
At the time of the Soviet Union’s disintegration, Ukraine had a slightly higher standard of living than Poland. Poland, like their slavic cousins in Czech, Slovenia, Slovakia joined the EU. Today they all have 1st world prosperity, 1st world functioning institutions in health care, public transportation, eduction, and government. Top notch. They also have protection of civil liberties and civil rights, like the ability to speak their mind without getting thrown into jail (try doing that in Putin’s Russia).
Ukraine and Russia have dysfunctional institutions in health care, public transportation and education. Their governmental institutions are completely dysfunctional and unstable.. These days students grades are contingent on bribes to their professors. Do you want a doctor who was trained in that system? Ukraine has 3rd world GNP, something like $5 to $7,000 GNP per capita a year.
The only difference between Russia and Ukraine is petro-dollars and Putin-cronyism corruption. The civil structure is stablized by Putin’s cronies spreading their influence, through things like the $50 billion Olympics construction tab. Fossil fuels provide OVER 50% of Russia’s GNP. If the price of fossil fuels collapses Russia’s GNP per capita would be the same as Ukraine’s, and if other extraction industry commodities prices collapses, Russia’s GNP per capita would be less than Ukraine’s. The country is a dysfunctional petro-state mess dominated by corruption and broken institutions all held to gether by oil money.
The choice between greater integration with the EU vs Russia is a no brainer. The people of Ukraine stood out side through 3 months of a frozen Kiev winter. Nothing in Washington or Brussels could cause people to endure such harshness. These people are worse off than they were in 1990, and greater integration with Russia would render their future completely and utterly hopeless for the unforeseeable future. (And EU membership does not mean NATO membership – just ask Sweden and Finland. Nations that have been violated by Russia in the past are more inclined to seek it – they aren’t running towards Russia, they are running away.)
The question shouldn’t be whether or not Ukraine should pursue greater integration with Europe, the question should be, WHY ISN’T RUSSIA FOLLOWING UKRAINE’S LEAD IN PURSUING GREATER INTEGRATION WITH EUROPE? The answer is Putin, and Putin’s ego and archaic geopolitical dreams. And right now, Putin’s propaganda machine runs over the television network and all the pro-Putin people spout the same stuff, its as if their tv antenna’s run right into their brains (I was told that by a Russian) – they believe everything Putin tells them, unquestioningly and of course, there is little venue for rebuttal.
The average person in Moscow or St. Petersburg or Yekaterinburg wants the same thing that the average person in Kiev wants, which is the same thing the average person in Warsaw or Prague, or Bratislava or Ljubljana wants, the only difference is, the people in Warsaw, Prague, Bratislava and Ljubljana ALREADY HAVE IT.
It seems the likely worst case scenario is that Ukraine will lose some eastern provinces. Then the rest of it will integrate with the EU and like their cousins in Poland, Czech, Slovenia and Slovakia, within one generation, they’ll be in the first world with sterling, fully functional institutions. In the mean time, the price of fossil fuels will begin to drop as renewables come on line, and the Saudi’s start pumping flooding global markets to make up for lost revenues. Russia will go back to being the creaking junk heap it was before oil prices began to rise in 2001 and the eastern Ukrainians will be bemoaning what fools they were to believe and to follow a rogue like Putin, and the people in Russia will increasingly demand access to what the Ukrainians will already have. They’ll have it because they bravely stood out in the bitter cold winter for 3 solid months in the winter of 2013-2014.
Russia has 300 km of developed coastline complete with suitable anchorage between Sochi and Volna, along which to establish a Black sea fleet. Furthermore, the government in Ukraine is still represented by the Ukrainian parliamentarians who were elected in 2010, yet simply appointed a new ministerial cabinet and a transitional president. A transitional presidency that is up for election, this May 25, 2014.
Moscow set all of this in motion by attempting to overturn the Budapest and Helsinki agreements, with regard to former Soviet territories, via the appeal of legal arguments that the Council of Europe rejected, since international law already provided a mechanism via which Kiev and Moscow could come to negotiated terms. Moscow reluctantly accepted this and proceeded to pay off Yanukovych with billions of Dollars, in order to establish a faux negotiation which would result in the outcome that Moscow wanted to achieve. An outcome that would at least appear to comply with international law.
Given that this was an obviously gross and ruthlessly cynical misuse of international law, that would have had extremely serious international consequences for the stability of the post-WW2 international order that is the alternative to the international order of the night before the outbreak of WW2, for example, this manoeuvre by Moscow was unacceptable to the US and the EU et al, and Yanukovych was encouraged to modify his position. Which he did, by hurriedly leaving office.
With its revanchist plans in tatters, Moscow retaliated by simply annexing the Crimean peninsula, with the intention to do likewise elsewhere in the region, by way of tactics such as the protecting “Russian Compatriots” manoeuvre, via the stay-behind ethnic Russians, of the Baltic states and Ukraine etc.
I read that at least some of the Putin cronies whose assets were supposedly impacted had plenty of time in advance of the sanctions to move their money out of harm’s way. One example:
http://thehill.com/policy/finance/201320-putin-crony-quickly-slips-through-obama-sanctions-net
Guilt by association!
It’s about time this legal doctrine was brought back.
Do sanctions actually ever meet the goals they were imposed for? I suspect mostly not. But they are great for grandstanding politicians.
I visited Iran last year, where US-imposed sanctions are supposed to bring Iran into line on nuclear matters.We are assured that these sanctions only hurt the leaders and rich people.
Yet the only people being hurt were the ordinary people. They are the ones who cannot get medicines. They are the ones who lose their jobs when a huge Peugeot car plant was forced to close down. They are the ones who now have to worry about crime because of poverty in a country where crime is almost unknown. They are the ones who have to deal in the black market to get items the rest of the world takes for granted.
Meanwhile the rich just shift their money to Dubai or elsewhere and continue to get richer while their countrymen live in increasing poverty. The rich get whatever cars or furnishings or electronics they want. The rich get first class medical treatment in nearby countries.
Yet surprisingly, Iranian people hold no malice towards the US. Many of them told us they would love to visit the US, or even live there. (I am not American.) Who they hate is their own government.
What the sanctions are likely to do is turn the people towards supporting the government’s position that this is a threat to Iran. The Iran-Iraq war did exactly that and cemented the Islamicists in power forevermore.
It seems like every US President is required to stand for office on the platform of not being the worlds policeman and limiting foreign police actions – yet once in office they all jump in with both feet. And we’ve a terrible track record with Vietnam, Iraq and now Algeria and the Middle East…
Duplicity has always been an American value.
Mark Twain?
From my perspective, this is a really stupid situation.
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The only opinion that matters is what do the people of the Ukraine want? For the last several years they’ve suffered through terrible leaders and a dysfunctional government. Their economy is in bad shape. What do they want? Better economic opportunities.
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What does Russia want? They want security and economic opportunities. Lets focus on security first. There’s been talk of some of the former Soviet block nations joining the EU and NATO. Russia perceives this as a threat. Is it? Is it really a threat? Does Russia need to be threatened? They are now a member of the world economy. We should welcome them into that community. We should give them assurances if everyone plays well together, there will never be a need for military actions. Wouldn’t it be nice if Russia someday could join the EU and NATO? Why shouldn’t that be the goal?
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A proper reaction to this crisis is this. First the leaders of the West should get off their butts and go to Moscow and meet with the Russian leaders face to face. Ukraine is not the problem, it is the symptom of the problem. We need to work with Russia to solve the PROBLEM. Do they need more secure access to world markets? Right-of-ways for their gas exports? Sea access to the Mediterranean? These things can be arranged without the threat of force or invasion.
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All parties should agree to leave Ukraine alone. Let them work through their problems. Its okay to provide economic aid, but no military aid. If the Ukraine want’s to reunite with Russia, that’s okay if it is THEIR decision. If they want to stay independent from Russia, that’s okay too. All parties should make it clear such a decision is not a threat to Russia. What the Ukraine does should have no bearing on the relationship between the major nations of the world and Russia.
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If the Ukraine continues to be poorly led, that should not be a problem for the major nations and Russia. The Ukraine needs to be responsible for their own actions and those actions should have no impact on anyone else.
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Saying hurtful things in the press, threatening military action is stupid. Talk to each other. Work with each other. Improve the relationship. Help each other.
John, you’re being way too logical in your argument. We’re talking world politics here, particularly US-Russia cold-war-style politics, so logic plays no part in it… sarcasm intended (-:
Misty, maybe its time to start being logical. Does the cold war still exist? Aside from giving politicians something to be against and military contractors business what’s the purpose of hanging onto the old rhetoric. Both the USA and Russia have far too many problems and whatever happens in with the Ukraine will in no way fix any of them. We could agree to help each other. It would be quicker, easier, and best of all — it won’t involve the Ukraine.
Yes, the Cold War still exists. This isn’t about states or nations. This is about empires and spheres of influence.
If the US were at all, in the least bit interested in letting other governments and peoples decide things for themselves, why would the US be trying to mandate that particular people shall have particular relationships to the means of production that are favorable only to the aristocracy, and preferentially its own?
The right of first refusal on 3% groaf forevar. That’s what this is about, and that is absolutely perfectly logical if you’re of a size that nations deem important. After you have eliminated all the kayfabe, whatever remains, however seemingly implausible or at odds with identities or projections, must be the truth.
Not being snarky, but is the issue “empires” or “ideology”?
I think that’s a great question. And according to Princeton academics the U.S. is an oligopoly. Any decision made doesn’t involve the American people anymore. Perhaps these oligarchs try to use “ideology” to advance their “empires” – thinks like freedom/liberty (“freedom for the Pike is death to the minnows” – Tawney) and “free” market capitalism. But what ideology is opposing that? Especially in Russia? Despotic-Socialism? (basically the same as before, with emphasis changed on despotism).
I think that ideology is basically used in the U.S. by plutocrats and oligarchs to try to get people to vote against their interests. Anglo-Saxon civics is not based upon ideology, because of the agencies, mechanisms and institutions inside of Common Law, but instead on representative self-interest pragmatism (compromise between interest groups). One way to get people to vote against their interest, is to get them to vote for an ideology (i.e. a lofty idea, such as liberty/freedom at the expense of, say, justice/fairness).
When are economic sanctions not sanctions at all, in 200 words or less — really, is this all you have?
I would have gone for “Do you even lift?”
🙂 Thanks. I learned a new meme!
Most of the wars in my lifetime have been fought over lines drawn on paper. Lines that cut across ethnic, tribal or language groups, lines that have no connection to the real boundaries of the real world. But let some leader end up in charge of one of these ‘countries,’ and it’s “Mine! ALL MINE!” So people die, get displaced, fall into poverty over an illusion. And of course, powerful allies get sucked into these conflicts, and more money and lives go down the drain. All over lines drawn on paper.
‘The corruption that is descending upon Ukraine will make the former regime look honest.’
Paul Craig Roberts
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/03/29/western-looting-ukraine-begun-paul-craig-roberts/
After the successes in Iraq and Afghanistan, how can the US not get involved in another war in Asia?
Several U.S. war contractors need the business – quarterly profits down a bit…
You fell victim to one of the classic blunders – The most famous of which is “never get involved in a land war in Asia”
I think you missed a smidgeon of irony.
However, you’re right about Asian land wars, particularly those involving the Afghans. America was twice warned about taking them on but didn’t listen. First the Afghans saw off the British Empire in 1842 followed by a draw in 1880. Then they saw off the Soviets in 1989. However, Bush and his advisors ignored history and tried their luck in 2001, but that didn’t work any better, did it?
I think you missed a movie reference. It was a quote from The Princess Bride
I can’t believe we as a country painted ourselves into a corner depending on another country for our transportation to the space station. I wonder what other big outsourcing ventures will end as disastrously.
I think the big plan was privatization. We, the good old US of A, would let the free market do it’s magic, let it take care of business of getting us to the space station. Oops.
Perhaps we should think twice about allowing further inroads of privatization of our military.
Russia has been invaded twice from the West, once by Napoleon, once by Hitler. Both times a lot of Russians died: 40 million when Hitler invaded. Napoleon went through Poland. Hitler went through Poland and Ukraine. The thrust through Ukraine ended at Stalingrad, THE iconic battle of the Second World War where the Third Reich was finally broken.
While I carry no brief for Putin, what Russian leader in his right mind would allow a military alliance (um that would be NATO) direct access to it’s western border? Simply put, our hand was overplayed.
Now the dog and pony show of sanctions to save face . . .
I have some background in the field of Eurasian geopolitics, and I can vouch that (1) the sanctions are indeed real and will hurt, and (2) the US and the EU are doing the right thing, by raising the cost of Putin’s nasty hate and destabilization campaign against Ukraine.
The space issue is a sideshow, the real issue is that Russia is an energy-rent state — 70% of its exports are oil and gas, and half of its federal budget is paid for by taxes on those exports. But Putin’s regime has been spending its cash on military boondoggles and expensive PR shows in Sochi, cracking down on dissidents, and choking Russia’s small and medium size firms, instead of investing in Russia’s industrial base. Result: Russia’s economy has gone nowhere for the last five years and needs a ton of US, EU and Japanese technology to keep its aging oil-fields running (it has fresh fields in the far north, but they’re hideously expensive to exploit).
The sanctions are a warning that an outright military invasion or annexation of any additional part of Ukraine will result in total economic isolation (equals total meltdown, because Russia is a huge importer of practically everything) and the loss of its $480 billion in forex reserves (denominated in US, EU and Japanese currency).
In re Ukraine: all the talk about Ukraine being in the grip of a fascist junta is nuts. Ukraine just had a genuinely democratic revolution, where mass protests by millions of ordinary citizens overthrew a horrid kleptocrat, Yanukovych, who stole billions from the people of Ukraine. The country is currently being run by its elected parliament. Don’t believe me? Here you go: http://rada.gov.ua/en. Fresh presidential elections are scheduled for May 25. Here’s Ukraine’s leading human rights organization: https://www.khpg.org/en/index.php
In re Crimea: historically it was always part of Russia, so it’s understandable that they would want to rejoin Russia. Not a problem. But the rest of Ukraine is truly Ukrainian and has been for centuries. If Putin had stopped at the Crimean annexation, things would’ve calmed down by now, but after swallowing Crimea, Putin has continue to stir up violent and scarily thuggish separatist movements inside Ukraine, despite the fact that most Ukrainians don’t want to join Russia. This is incredibly dangerous, because it wouldn’t take much to spark an awful regional conflict which benefits nobody.
It’s been incredibly depressing to watch Russian ultra-nationalism run amok and sabotage the country’s future. I’ve followed Russia’s digital media culture for some time, and they had such amazing promise – great firms like Yandex and Kaspersky, and lots of creative artists. Now it’s all gone to hell. Russia’s state-run media has launched a lunatic hate campaign claiming Ukraine is the center of all that is evil on the planet, the state has cracked down on the web, and basically any cloud or internet service in Russia is doomed (Putin’s spies make the NSA look like angels of mercy).
So… minimalist sanctions are the right medicine. Let’s hope it all ends peacefully.
Do you work for the NSA’s propaganda wing by any chance? Or have you been listening to them?
Do you work for Putin? Or is it just that the only tv stations you listen to, or can listen to, are controlled by him?
Never mind Ukraine, Putin is a disaster for Russia. They’ll be paying for his corruption for the rest of the century. Maybe Russia will join the first world by 2100.
“I have some background in the field of Eurasian geopolitics, and I can vouch that (1) the sanctions are indeed real”
Poor old Elon Musk might disagree – what does he know?
Pentagon was awarding the Russians (sole-sourced no bid?) $70 billion on 36 rockets to launch satellites before Musk spoils the party:
In the suit, SpaceX criticizes Pentagon for using Russian engines, which SpaceX founder Elon Musk said might be a violation of U.S. sanctions” Musk says the deal would benefit Dmitry Rogozin, the deputy PM who heads the Russian defense industry and is named by the U.S. government in the sanctions.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/elon-musks-spacex-granted-injunction-in-rocket-launch-suit-against-lockheed-boeing/2014/04/30/4b028f7c-d0cd-11e3-937f-d3026234b51c_story.html
Dennis, Thanks for your insight.
I backpacked Ukraine/Crimea and Russia with my Russian friends. The relationship with Ukraine was stressed due to the Holodomor etc but at least there seemed to be a workable relationship.. now?
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Do you see any way for Putin to save face?
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I’d hate to see my Russian friends go back to living 2+ families/apartment to finance the country’s resistance of the perceived ‘evil western expansionism’ .
You forgot about China. Though China is not really Russia’s ally, more like using each other for common profit, there will be no total sanction if China doesn’t co-operate. Just look how well the sanctions placed on North Korea, they are now planning for the 4th nuclear detonation…
Many commentators (i.e. BBC, CNN, Foreign Policy, etc.) pointed out China as a concern, and with recent natural gas contract talks back on the table as a clear signal. And don’t forget Libya and Syria when UN wanted to do something…
“I have some background in the field of Eurasian geopolitics, and I can vouch that the US and the EU are doing the right thing,”
You might agree then, that it’s stupid to make enemies of Russia and China at the same time.Divide your enemies and set them against one another was the essence of Bismarck’s diplomacy.Dumping the petrodollar will make things ugly,very fast:
http://ericmargolis.com/2014/04/amateur-hour-in-ukraine/
“Russia’s state-run media has launched a lunatic hate campaign claiming Ukraine is the center of evil”
Our state-run media has a pretty good campaign going against Putin. How many times in the last month, have I heard the media accuse Putin of false flag operations back in 1999 – pulling down Moscow apartment buildings. The WSJ reported last month that Moscow had announced that a building was bombed days before it actually was bombed. I wish they’d wear their tin foil hats more often: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_LBZ9ogA3E
“the state has cracked down on the web, and basically any cloud or internet service in Russia is doomed (Putin’s spies make the NSA look like angels of mercy).”
Snowden must be conspiring with Putin to crack down on the .50 cent sock puppets:
https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2014/02/24/jtrig-manipulation/
“(Putin’s spies make the NSA look like angels of mercy)”
Greenwald makes Hayden look like one of the other angels. See Greenwald vs Hayden/Dershowitz: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_d1tw3mEOoE#t=450
“Victoria Nuland has admitted that the US has spent $5 billion”
“the state has cracked down on the web, and basically any cloud or internet service in Russia is doomed”
ORIENTAL REVIEW is an independent Moscow-based Internet journal, launched by a group of freelance bloggers:
http://orientalreview.org/2014/02/07/what-about-apologizing-to-ukraine-mrs-nuland/
It’s interesting that in a world poll conducted by Gallup at the end of last year, of people in 65 countries, the United States was considered to be the greatest threat to world peace by a large margin.
A full 24% of respondents around the world considered the US to be the greatest threat, with China at 6% and Russia at 2%. This was the case even in Western Europe. Germany voted the US as the greatest threat at 17%, followed by Iran at 16%. The UK voted the US and Iran in joint first place at 15%.
Interestingly, in the Ukraine – before all the latest developments – 33% regarded the US as the greatest threat to world peace, while only 5% regarded Russia as the greatest threat.
“the United States was considered to be the greatest threat”
Well, I guess that just changed!
Although, as your study says, most people would still want to move to the U.S. Canada or Australia.
The latest poll results from the Ukraine, released yesterday:
https://www.voanews.com/content/poll-finds-ukrainians-doubt-effectiveness-of-interim-government/1904404.html
Luckily they have a friendly neighbor to the east who is trying to help them through these troubles and help stabilize the situation….NOT.
Yeah they have reason to feel insecure. The biggest part of that reason is Russia.
There’s a reason for Russia not being considered a threat.
Its population is barely bigger than Mexico’s and is shrinking. Likewise its economy is only marginally bigger than Mexico and Mexico actually has decent modern and improving institutions. Its economy has modern factories that compete in international commerce.
The point is to put Russia in perspective. Its a nation only marginally bigger than Mexico in people and economics. Russia’s geopolitical weight is not much more significant than Mexico. How you think of Mexico might also be appropriate for how you think of Russia.
Russia does have more land and it does have more raw materials for extraction industries, but it doesn have many industries or institutions that are of an international caliper.
Russia is little more of a threat than Mexico. So 2% is justified.
This has got to be one of the most ridiculous posts I’ve seen on the Internet about this whole situation. Owebama, is that you?
Don’t get out much? Here let me help:
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wikipedia list of nations by …
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1) Population (there’s Russia, two notches down from Nigeria, two above Mexico)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population
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2) GNP (there’s Russia between Italy and India)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)
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3) GNP per capita
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)
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Remember, HALF of Russia GNP comes from export of Oil and Gas. Take that out, and Russian GNP per head falls even with Ukraine. Take out all the extraction industries and it might even fall below Ukraine (per capita Ukraine does less extraction than Russia). The point of all of that is Russia is just a middle rank contender with HIGHLY disfunctional institutions and very little competence in manufacturing. If not for Oil and Gas, Russia is a third world economy – which means its functionally a 3rd world economy/society.
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Russia’s institutions or rife with corruption. It is not a super power. Its, at best, a middle power attempting to punch above its weight. Look at those lists. Russia’s GNP is only marginally greater than Canada’s whose population is 1/5th Russia’s or Australia at 1/6th.
I used Mexico because it borders the states. From those lists, you can see that clearly Brazil is a much closer comparisonk in size, population, GNP, and GNP/per capita. Even here, in Brazil vs. Russia, Brazil has the edge institutionally as, while it suffers from high corruption, has been working hard to reduce it the last couple of decades. Russia is a highly dysfunctional middle ranked power, with a lot of gas, oil and aging nuclear weaponry.
“the United States was considered to be the greatest threat- Well, I guess that just changed!”
The reasons are historical:
http://williamblum.org/books/killing-hope/#toc
“Russia’s geopolitical weight is not much more significant than Mexico.”
Mexico is lacking hypersonic glide vehicles and space weapons.
I was going to suggest that we all go shopping:
http://storyofstuff.org/movies/story-of-stuff/
“Recently, Sen. John McCain, sneered that Russia was merely “a gas station masquerading as a country.” Gas stations do not produce the likes of Tolstoy, Borodin, Rimsky-Korsakov, Prokofiev, or the very smart Vlad Putin. They do, however, produce puny intellects like McCain.
Just as Russia provided the US with a diplomatic exit from blundering into a war with Syria, so the Kremlin is again offering Washington a way out of the Ukraine imbroglio.
President Putin keeps bringing up history to justify his assertive policies towards Ukraine and Crimea. This annoys Americans, who know little about history and refuse to accept Russia as a great power- and certainly not as an equal.”
http://ericmargolis.com/2014/04/amateur-hour-in-ukraine/
“…so the Kremlin is again offering Washington a way out of the Ukraine imbroglio”
Another way out is if the Russian’s just let Ukrainians decide their own fate without interfering.
Yes, Russia is indeed a great power. The same way that Brazil is a great power.
My Russian friends tell me that the only way to get a good grade at a Russian university is to pay your professor a bribe. Russia during the Soviet Union had a great education system. This is something Putin let go to hell. I’m sure they still have great engineers left over from the Soviet Union. One of my colleagues was trained in that system, and I can testify he’s to his impressive competence, but their education system has significantly declined over the last 25 years. However well educated they may or may not be, they make good soldiers and the worse the situation, minus 40 degrees temperature, etc… , the more they excel.
Ironically, the fastest way to Russia becoming a great power would be through greater European integration. Within one generation (25 years) they’d have 1st world institutions and productivity. In 1989 Russia was better off than Ukraine and Ukraine better off (developed) than Poland, now neither one can hold a candle to Poland. If Oil and Gas prices collapse Russia is Ukraine. Without Oil and Gas, any pretext to great power status of Russia would be a joke.
Russia has shown itself to be the biggest threat not just because of their actions in Ukraine but for the need of an enemy to unify the country. In the past, Americans used the threat of Russia to shift financing to military from other spending. The Russians on the other hand justified even greater personal sacrifices from their citizens – some, including engineers and scientists living three families to an apartment. Russians today have a hangover from their sacrifice and are drinking themselves to death. The government needs to regain pride and given their national attitude of “don’t be pussies” it doesn’t leave many options.
It’s too bad that Russia can’t find another way to put away the bottle…
Most of these kind of “things” are just for people belief.
America needs to show they cannot bypassed in an international querelle like the Crimea affair.
That canceling is just words, as you explained. No actual harm is getting to the Russians. Maybe to America, but definitely not to Russia.
In the (limited) people view, on the other hand, the America needs to show something. Anything. This thing!
Getting back to the issue around sanctions and space – wait until the situation escalates to the point where the Russians threaten to sent the US astronauts home on a Soyuz, unbolt the non-Russian portions of the ISS and cast them adrift. Remember the Russian modules were the first part of the ISS and contain all the command/control and reboost capability. There is nothing we can really do about it.
That’s the kind of situation you get when your national space agency spends more of its resources on internal politics than on hardware.
NASA should have been disbanded decades ago, and their budget given back to the USAF, with orders to go forth and explore.
Spacex
Financial impact can be measured many ways. OK, the immediate cash flow impact is zero because rocket engines have already been paid for. However, new uncertainties are introduced, and Russian stock prices for many companies have fallen because of them. Some Russan oligarches will notice. And the statement that only Americans have suffered from the restraints is empty – no examples are cited. OK, here’s one. Some US banks will have a tiny reduction in profits. I’ll lose a lot of sleep over that problem.
Look Ukraine was used as a dumping ground for CCCP government workers that were expelled from Muslim lands The Name-stans, in 1990s. It was done by ex Commos in control on both sides.
Your seeing Irish IRA problems now in Ukraine.
The solution: 1 expulsion 2 breakup
Do we really want balkanization with all the nuclear powerstations ??
https://www.counterpunch.org/2014/05/06/the-crisis-in-ukraine-2/
Considering where reactors are located, the Human Race itself is balkanized. Should we avoid the problem by joining Russia and creating the USSH?