No, Google doesn’t intend to become a national Internet Service Provider, despite its new plan to build a number of optical networks to serve homes and businesses at up to one gigabit-per-second. The real plan is half Xerox PARC and half Tom Sawyer.
When the Computer Science Lab at Xerox Palo Alto Research Center was organized by Bob Taylor in the early 1970s to revolutionize computer, network, and printing technology, there was a conscious decision to live 10 years in the future. The CSL would build devices that could be expected to make economic sense in 1980, not 1970. This was a huge leap, because it meant the amount of memory in each device would be 64 times as much as made economic sense in 1970 when 1K was a lot. Yet think of it, a 64K PC was the norm when IBM introduced that product in 1981 (base was 16K!) so the numbers were about right. Only by embracing future limits, no matter the cost, was PARC able to achieve so much (Ethernet, Graphical User Interfaces, laser printing) in its first three years of operation.
Part of Google’s inspiration, then, for building-out a few residential and business optical networks is to do the same thing. Because not all smart people work at Google and even more so because the smart people who do work at Google don’t generally think or operate like the rest of us, it will be very useful to see what normal folks actually do with that much bandwidth.
There will be a few surprises, I’m sure, but not many. For the most part Google is hoping to inspire current ISPs — mainly cable companies — to follow its lead, like Tom Sawyer did when getting his friends to whitewash that fence. Google wants to set an example for how to do local networks right and get the Obama Administration to codify that methodology through the Federal Communication Commission. Then they want someone else to do the actual heavy lifting.
And it will probably work, not so much because Google is brilliant but because the cable TV companies are ambitious. We’re entering an era where cable operators will have a real cost advantage over telcos in expanding residential bandwidth, thanks to DOCSIS 3.0 modems.
I’m the third DOCSIS 3.0 customer in Charleston, South Carolina and the first residential customer following two law firms. I did it I suppose to write this column but even more so because I have some heavy video activity coming-up and thought I might need the extra bandwidth, which is substantial. The important thing to understand about DOCSIS 3.0 technology is that it’s not a big deal, really. It’s just channel bonding.
Where earlier cable modems had users on each subnet sharing a single analog video channel (generally channel 80), DOCSIS 3.0 devices can grab several channels and aggregate bandwidth. Think about it, under this scenario if a cable system operator were to abandon its analog signal entirely in favor of a total IP solution that would mean a 100X increase in shareable bandwidth on each subnet — subnets that are already for the most part interconnected by fiber. That’s 30 gigabits-per-second or more to be share in your neighborhood alone for a cost that amounts to about $300 compared to the average $1350 per customer Verizon is spending to install FiOS fiber.
Some cable companies will use DOCSIS 3.0 to take down the local phone company, which will be hard-put to compete. And they’ll have support from the TV manufacturers as well as cable box makers. My new 58-inch Panasonic Plasma TV has an Ethernet port on the back and all Panasonic’s competitors would like us to buy new TV’s too. And don’t forget who is America’s largest maker of cable boxes — Cisco. You think they don’t want IP TV? Heck, they trademarked the term.
While what Google intends to install is fiber (or so they are saying right now) the ultimate beneficiaries of this project may be more traditional cable plants running mainly thick old coax.
Google wants to nudge this along because their ultimate goal isn’t to be an ISP but to live in the data center of the ISP providing us data with ads to go with it. They want to drop one of those shipping container server farms into the parking lot of every cable head-end in America, ultimately providing gigabits of data without having to pay anything for bandwidth.
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I have no idea why Verizon is wasting all that money of FIOS. I know they’re losing phone customers to the cable companies, but the truth is that land lines whether VOIP or POTs are going away. I don’t know of a single person under 30 who has a landline.
I would assume that the telcos would be doing their damn best to go wireless. They have the bandwidth which they spent a pretty penny on. If I were Verizon, I would be spending every cent on moving to LTE and forget about FIOS. Let the cable companies grab the VOIP market. Let them grab the wired network.
Instead, the phone companies should be improving their 3G and 4G to completely compete against the wired business.
Let’s take a look at the iPad. It’ll make a good computer for Mom, so I’m going to buy her one. I have two choices:
* Get the WiFi model, then have my Mom call the cable company, install a cable modem, then go there myself and get the WiFi network setup. When there are network problems, I’ll be instructing her to unplug and plug in the various routers and modems hoping to get it working.
* Buy the 3G version and give that to my Mom. All configured and working almost right out of the box. No need for configuring a WiFi network. There’s no WiFi signal. No interference. It just works.
If I was the telcos, I would be pushing a wireless future. Get computers manufacturers to include SIM card slots (like the iPad does) right in their devices. In fact, get all the consumer hardware (HDTVs, BlueRay players, game consoles, etc.) to work with the phone company’s 3G network.
Think of it: Televisions that can be placed anywhere in a room without worrying where the cable jack is located. All devices work without worrying about modems and routers or whether the WiFi signal reaches that far in the house. Stuff that works right out of the box without futzing with connectivity.
Of course, you’ll have to offer true “unlimited data” and not a 5Gb cap. You’ll have to have “family plans” where people can have up to a dozen devices on the same account ($40/month for the initial 3G device, $5/month for each additional 3G device). But, the reward would be great, and it would be playing upon the strength of the telcos who spent billions buying all that freed up bandwidth.
The only flaw I see is that telcos are some of the biggest idiots on the planet. AT&T thought they could get rich by giving up the local landline and being a long distance company. They then spent billions buying NCR and McCaw only to sell both at big loses. In the end, they get swallowed up by their own Baby Bell.
Fortunately, for the telcos, their biggest competition are the cable companies. Probably the only set of companies with even less brain power than the telcos.
@David: “Televisions that can be placed anywhere in a room without worrying where the cable jack is located.” My television is positioned so that the UHF antenna gets good reception. In Denver, our local stations broadcast HD signals from Lookout Mountain, and I get my HDTV for free. Free, as in beer. I won’t pay Comcast for HD broadcasts (I get angry already for paying Comcast $60/month just so I can watch commercials!).
I can’t think of any technological reason why The Food Network doesn’t broadcast from Lookout Mnt. (someone please enlighten me). Unfortunately, there isn’t an economic model that works for broadcasting the Food Network or Discovery or Lifetime (or whatever) from Lookout Mountain. There -is- an economic model for purchasing content online (Apple iTunes), which is what I may end up doing.
Oh, and the iPad with 3G sounds great for my mom, too.
My parents (age 66 and 65…not techno-literate at all) have Verizon DSL at their house. Their modem and router are one box. If anything breaks, Verizon comes out and fixes it. This box also does Wifi. Verizon supports the entire thing.
So–your analogy is flawed.
“You’ll have to have “family plans” where people can have up to a dozen devices on the same account…”
One-card-per-device only benefits the phone companies. Get a Mifi. It works with up to 5 devices at once for the same $60/month price. The family can share it.
-Erica
DSL is not a solution for video distribution. It might work for people on underused lines close to the base, but performance drops off significantly with distance and use. After 3 years of DSL–and empty promises that performance improvements were “coming soon”– I switched to cable last night…huge improvement.
The telcos will be happy to push a wireless future, but AT&T has already oversaturated their 3G network in a lot of area, and Verizon’s CEO is on record saying that flat-rate broadband pricing is not sustainable. How will Mom feel in when the 3G overage charges on her iPad are $250/month?
“Under this scenario if a cable system operator were to abandon its analog signal entirely in favor of a total IP solution that would mean a 100X increase in shareable bandwidth on each subnet.”
Have to call you on this one, Bob. I’d be interested in how you get to this conclusion and especially whether you’re leaving out any “inconvenient” details.
Perhaps Bob means that cable companies currently devote about 100 6 MHz slots to provide 100 analog (NTSC) channels which uses up 600 MHz of the available 900 MHz of the cable bandwidth. A single 6 MHz slot may be used by the cable modems in the neighborhood. If they used the all the NTSC bandwidth instead for IP packets the modems would have 100 times the bandwidth but there would be no room left for analog channels and subscribers could only use the remaining 300 MHz for TV (QAM digital cable TV standard). But that should be enough for 100 Hi-Def or 600 Std. Def channels since QAM is twice as efficient as ATSC which is 6 times as efficient as NTSC. (Please correct me if I’m wrong about the details; I’m not an expert in the field, just an interested consumer.)
You have heavy video activity coming? Great news! You’re finally publishing NerdTV Season 2 in co-operation with the Computer History Museum and a sponsor, I hope. 🙂
One more thing, Bob. In your last sentence, you raise the idea of Google using up gobs of bandwidth and not paying for it. But this seems pretty close to what Brett Glass told you would be the problem if Net neutrality passes and you were pretty skeptical:
https://www.cringely.com/2009/11/brett-versus-bob-taking-net-neutrality-personally/
Not trying to play “gotcha” but maybe time to reconsider…?
There’s no contradiction, you just need to understand how bandwidth pricing–or perhaps, costing–works. Your bandwidth usage really doesn’t cost your ISP anything, until you go outside of their network and start pulling bits over the backbone. That’s the whole point of proxy servers, pages that are frequently accessed by users within the local networked are cached locally, so your ISP doesn’t have to pay to import the same bits off the backbone multiple times.
What Google wants to do is distribute giant proxies to multiple ISPs, so basically the whole Web–well, a lot of it anyway– gets updated once locally, then all local requests are served from the Google boxcar instead of being forwarded over the backbone. Yes, Google essentially gets free bandwidth from their boxcar to your house, but this costs the ISP nothing, except for maintenance on the lines, which you and I are already paying(through the nose) for.
Verizon and AT&T both need to consider how bad they’re being trounced on landline broadband. Maybe not today, but in 5 years for sure.
Verizon: good tech, costs too much $$ per customer
AT&T: lower $$ per customer, copper to the home won’t scale much further
Both of these companies need to spend until they bleed, both of them on the same thing: The horrendously weak backhaul circuits that run from their towers to the rest of their network. This is why your 3G phone seems so slow. The backhaul circuits are their dirty little secrets.
Bob, I am a listener from China, I have two questions. Maybe in your standpoint these quesions are both boring and meaningless
Firstly, during listening to your podcast, I sense some sound of paging papers, does this mean you still write your blog on paper or you just copy what your type in computer then read it (just like my not accustomed to screen-reading)
Secondly, I found a unsolved problem recently. I bought a HTC hero a month ago. In my school, where engadet nerds(I like describe myself in this way) are rare, so I choose this to keep myself informed of what happened in mobile phone market and such kind of news. But after several week I found this just like a dilemma——I buy smartphone, just to know all about smartphone. Is that ridiculous? Maybe so.
You said “I buy smartphone, just to know all about smartphone. Is that ridiculous?” No, you bought it to persue your interests, one of which is smartpnones. Back in the ’50s ham radio operators could broadcast around the world with 1KW of am radio power. What did they talk about? Their ham radio equipment.
Who needs Cisco Set Top Box when the new HDTV has an 10/100/1000 Ethernet Port (and in some cases its own CPU) that can pick up feeds (and most content/apps) from the PC/BlueRay Player/NAS/Music players etc. using the FTTH and or WIred DSL services.
I agree that the 4G networks (WiMAX and LTE) will introduce an interesting option but will be challenged (spectrum wise) as the market for Video delivery continues its explosive growth.
I will opt for OTT Services via my Fiber (which will be GPON and eventually direct fiber feeds) network and drop my Cable Services completely.
Must also get rid of the VOD Aggregators who continue to rip everyone off with their fixed pricing and dominance of the space. OTT services will put these boys out of business very soon.
Jim A
Google is just moving closer to the watering hole like the lions do.
You think that Google’s intent is just advertisements?
Soon that will be the superficial revenue that will power their deeper statistical correlations of persons to products, services and living habits which are gold to vendors manufacturers, branding campaigns and R&D.
Google wants to get what P&G and Nielson struggle to do – a view into the consumers home by way of the tubing into said houses. P&G uses coupons, Nielson has the diary and meters.
Right now Google is scraping together the details of the picture from the sites you visit using ancient technology -IP and cookie analysis. They also do good old fashioned statistical breakdown from other data: Mail contacts and message contents, Project contacts and contents via google wave- Phone records (who, where, when, and possibly what) via their telephony apps. They also can broker data with/to/from Visa,MC,AMEX, Netflix and other partners etc to get a consumer profile by house number – this is already done at zipcode levels. There is always the co-relation with public or near public data (ie google earth maps). Soon there will be updated census tract data to matchup.
In providing tubing in a targeted way; will there be packet header and even deep packet examinations? Sure thing!
When does house X browse actively, When did house X stream vids, they have one OSX and 3 XP (one is a Lenovo laptop) because the auto updates and ntp requests are reliable and constant to specific places. The OSX appeared after promotion Y and happens to be be phoning home to the apple store so it likely an Ipad because ipod touch and iphone do another pattern of access. When those iPad and laptop move around the area, Google could be able to deeply track them when they “go to drink at” another google owned tube; probably not yet in <a href="https://panopticlick.eff.org/" real time.
It can also be said that gigabits of data can also be skimmed,screened, and logged at the cable headend as you said at Google’s low cost for later analysis.
Google is not just about pushing ads – its about profiling consumers to a high degree of detail and selling that to business. Ads is not a word close enough to describe that.
One of the first Cringley articles that made me a fan was a PBS post in 2007 “When Being a Verb is Not Enough: Google wants to be YOUR Internet.”
https://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/2007/pulpit_20070119_001510.html
A lot of the points you made in 2007 support Google’s recent move and your new theories here … but are you revising your thoughts on the role of traditional ISPs in all of this?
I was thinking of that article too — as well as the one where Cringely predicted that Google would use the containers to ad-serve all of US television, using their data from the other devices to pick the commercials that you see at home. That to me was the more brilliant idea, probably because I work in advertising and know firsthand that every client is wasting 60-90% of their media budget because current targeting methods are stone-age. If Google could tailor every TV’s commercials in real-time like they do with, say, the sidebar ads in Gmail, it would be the biggest revolution in advertising since TV itself. Possibly bigger.
Also it would be creepy and Orwellian, but that’s another story.
Comcast in Utah is killing off it’s analog service. Because of this I am dropping my service with them because I will not go over the air for HDTV and just download Mythbusters via iTunes, the only real show I watched on my basic service. I refuse to continually pay their increasing rates and it’s gone up a total of about $5 a month over the last few years for NO INCREASE IN SERVICE. Now with my analog service going away, I can’t even record Mythbusters and would be forced to use their box which is “free” right now but I will probably be charged for it later and all of the non local channels are encrypted so I can’t record them either. 99% of what I watch is on the big four networks anyway so my need for cable has waned.
So I’m dumping the $235 a year I’m spending on cable and paying $30 via iTunes. Screw the Cable companies. I’m still pissed with Comcast (Comcrap) and Qwest (Qworst) letting out their employees early when the Salt Lake City Council was listening to responses on the Utopia fiber project so they could kill it with made up negative comments from their employees. Nothing is ever going to change in this country if we let big corporations enforce a status quo in the name of maintaining the high profits.
Comcast has terrible business practices. Was it a few years ago they had employee’s disguising packets to disrupt downloads from peer 2 peer networks? I understand they also have bandwidth caps and tier pricing as well? Not to mention some horrible programing mishaps like pornography being broadcast instead during a children’s show.
I am happy I do not have to use Comcast. Didn’t they just buy NBC Universal? I applaud what you are doing and wish more would do the same. Comcast is a very bad company with very bad self serving intentions.
I have equipment at a telco now where we could provision out 100 Mbps DSL.
unfortunately, you have to be in the shadow of the service cabinet on the curb.
I am told by folks who would like to sell more equipment that bonding more pairs could push that distance out nicely.
if you already have the fiber out, or you do something interesting like push gig-e switches outside the central office and on the curbs, so you can segment your fiber ducts and feed a bunch of gig-e curbside units and push 10 or 100 gig back to the CO, you can whip up on the cable companies.
without becoming evil and putting ten HD potty channels on basic cable so everybody has to upgrade two tiers.
oh, earlier posters, analog cable is gonzo this year on the major players’ systems. you’re all going digital, want it or not. they need the bandwidth.
Hmmm… If getting DOCSIS 3.0 is a $300/customer capital cost, that is next to nothing, about $20/year in annual terms. So why the heck does Comcast charge $50/mo for cable internet?
It’s precisely because they are a monopoly and can charge that much, and people will pay it. It’s weird how AT&T and local telcos were forced to open up markets. That’s why 3rd party DSL providers are allowed to live–they pay AT&T (or the local telco) some bare-minimum fixed cost for the line and they get to offer the ancillary services (DNS servers, back-end connections, etc). Without that, AT&T would be charging much more.
And without Comcast or your local cable provider being exposed to competition, Comcast’s rates will stay high, much higher than their long-run costs.
I foresee the day when cable will become a commodity data connection and you get to decide your own provider of content. That’s what it should be (your local gov’t should buyout Comcast’s line investment and just give broadband to all citizens as part of the tax bill, it might just cost $20/month if you take out all the content and profits.) Then all video channels can be on-demand (there’s no practical constraint on # of on demand channels.)
But the local cable company will fight tooth and nail over this. Even though they are a franchised monopoly who is supposed to be regulated.
I completely agree with you, but many state–including mine–have passed laws explicitly prohibiting communities from getting into the ISP business. I’ll let you guess who lobbied for this.
Do you really believe that getting service from a government agency would be better than a regulated monoply? Note the government did not buy out the telco infrstructure. The telcos were just “regulated” into opening it up.
well ronc, municipal and other local government is often very responsive to customers needs ….when they are not under the thumb of large companies as some seem to be in the US. Its the large centralised bureaucracies that don’t give good service.
All this bandwidth is great and everything but on the other hand, are the cable companies going to change or remove their download caps? They are selling us all this capability to transfer massive amounts of data but then limit how much we can actually transfer. At 100mb/s how long does it take to hit the comcast 250gb limit? I am just not sure how this is going to work as the cable companies want you to use their on demand video services instead of getting your multimedia from the internet.
As for myself, I went the way of a previous commenter. I dropped cable tv and am sticking with OTA and netflix. I just wonder how long the cable company will let me download my tv before they reduce my cap or raise the internet service cost.
“The real plan is half Xerox PARC and half Tom Sawyer.”
Bob, you are half right. Google is actually bluffing, hoping to con providers into breaking out the heavy bandwidth at retail prices. Remember, they tried that with the wireless spectrum last year. They feigned interest and even made a non-serious minimum bid. Look what came of it. Zilch.
Yes, the US is stuck between a monopoly and a hard place. Not enough competition in either wireless or wired services. If Google wants to change the status quo they are going to have to pull out a very large check book and actually compete. Otherwise the powers that be will continue to milk the existing system.
We know Google doesn’t have the guts. The wireless bluff proved that.
Bob, who is your MSO?
Large bandwidth experiments have been going on for quite some time in other countries. There is probably enough data to show what people use all that bandwidth for. Until the media companies can come up with a viable way of selling quality content digitally, they will not be able to make a whole lot of money on the content.
Many people I know couldn’t possibly care about more bandwidth. They schedule downloads of magnificent obscure stuff in hi-def, and watch whenever they want. It remains to be seen if any of these people are willing 1) to pay for higher bandwidth because it hardly poses a problem for them as it is and 2) to pay for content: with the exception of iTMS, few models exist within which people are willing to pay for content.
Bob, maybe you can light the way in this respect. How will NerdTV make money?
You’ve been hacked! Going to cringely.com starts loading the correct page then diverts to another site that tries to forcefully download fake antivirus software to your computer. You need to check into this and fix it.
No problem here. (Vista & IE8)
When I hit submit it happened to me too!
Bravo! Good column, and very prescient.
The Telcos squandered their chance to succeed in the marketplace when they insisted on staying with unshielded twisted pair copper and milking it. They should have sacrificed their earnings for a few years and moved entirely to fiber and when not possible, to shielded copper (coax) while they had the chance.
They still have a chance, if they abandon their investment banking thinking and rigid operations dogma and start to leverage their real estate investment in Central Offices. The CO (and especially remote COs) could certainly be the future location of many Google data centers.
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[…] Google’s Walk in the PARC […]
I figure Google is using the broadband project to pressure the incumbent ISPs.
The incumbent ISPs by and large are anti-net neutrality. Why? By charging a premium for bandwidth for certain types of data, they can avoid further capital outlays on infrastructure, and maximize their profit.
By building out a few sample fiber to the home networks, Google is forcing ISPs to re-think their position.
You know, if computers had advanced at the same pace telephones have, we would still be using punch cards!
“That’s 30 gigabits-per-second or more to be share in your neighborhood alone for a cost that amounts to about $300 compared to the average $1350 per customer Verizon is spending to install FiOS fiber.”
Actually, it’s closer to 128 6Mhz channels * 50Mbit per channel = 6.4Gbit per node. Upstream still sucks, 8 upstream channels * 30Mbit = 240Mbit.
[…] Shared Google’s Walk in the PARC. […]
I think the other half of Google’s strategy here is the GoogleBox, which Bob talked about some time ago. The NYT today (3/18/10) notes that Google is partnering with Intel and Sony to create the box — https://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/18/technology/18webtv.html. I don’t see where Google loses on this one.
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My parents (age 66 and 65…not techno-literate at all) have Verizon DSL at their house. Their modem and router are one box. If anything breaks, Verizon comes out and fixes it. This box also does Wifi. Verizon supports the entire thing.
So–your analogy is flawed.
“You’ll have to have “family plans” where people can have up to a dozen devices on the same account…”
One-card-per-device only benefits the phone companies. Get a Mifi. It works with up to 5 devices at once for the same $60/month price. The family can share it.
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