Sorry I got my puts and calls mixed-up in the e-mail version of this column. It should now be fixed. My 16 year-old copy editor says he won’t make that mistake again. — Bob
Today is my birthday. Thirty-five years ago today I was drinking coffee in my Palo Alto kitchen when the Space Shuttle Challenger exploded on TV. Thirty years ago today my father fell over, instantly dead of a heart attack while walking between gates in the American Airlines terminal at DFW. I was expecting a call, just not that one. Life is full of surprises and some of them aren’t good, as hedge funds are learning this week while their fortunes are determined by millennial traders in shares of GameStop, the venerable video game retailer. This is all part of the new normal.
Day Trading of stocks and options was a big deal during the dot-com era 25 years ago. “Traders” intent on closing-out their positions at the end of each day would hype this stock or that on Internet discussion boards, counting on artificial volatility and good timing to both buy and sell (or sell and buy) before the other guy — one trader against the world. That’s NOT what is happening here with GameStop, AMC, Bed Bath & Beyond, Blackberry, etc. This is coordinated action of thousands of traders toward a specific and guaranteed profitable end.
Day Trading died because pretty much everybody involved lost all their money. I know your brother-in-law was the happy exception, but the vast majority of day traders lost their shirts, learned a lesson and moved-on. Again, what’s happening this week is NOT Day Trading.
What’s happening this week is more like the origin story of George Soros betting against the British Pound in 1992. Soros was the biggest player in this gambit, but there were many others doing the same thing. The UK Government, through the Bank of England, was trying to limit volatility in British Pound trading to no more than +/- six percent so Soros — already a well-established London trader — bought £10 BILLION in German Marks using British Pounds, driving the Mark UP and the Pound DOWN far beyond the six percent limits. Soros was betting the Bank of England would do whatever it took to defend the Pound, which meant selling Marks and buying Pounds, no matter what the price. And that’s exactly what happened on what came to be called Black Wednesday. At the end of that day Soros closed-out his position £1 BILLION richer, an implied interest rate of 10 percent PER DAY, which is loan shark territory though on a global scale.
George Soros believed that there was no way he could lose so he went for broke. It certainly wasn’t a good thing for the UK, but that trade is still lauded as among the BEST in history.
But if Soros was good, why is Wall Street complaining that GameStop is bad? That’s because hedge funds — like those old Day Traders — are being burned at their own game.
Hedge funds like those involved in GameStop are inherently bullies. They find a public company that is weak (GameStop is struggling to even survive in the new era of downloadable games) then either buy a ton of shares and use those to bully the company into specific corporate actions that are profitable for the hedge fund OR they simply short the company shares, betting it will falter or even go out of business.
Shorting means selling shares with the intent of re-buying them later (covering the short) hopefully at a lower price. It’s a bet that the shares will drop in price, producing a profit. If the company goes out of business and the short never requires covering, that’s a profit of 100 percent. You don’t have to actually own GameStop shares to short them, either. Your broker will borrow shares from some other account, lend them to you to sell, then it all gets resolved at the end when the short is covered or the target company dies.
A way to make even more money from this trade is by using options rather than actual shares, in this case buying call options. When you buy a call, you’re hoping that the price of the underlying stock goes up. You make money with calls when the price of the option rises, or when you exercise the option to buy the stock at a price that’s below the strike price and then sell the stock in the open market, pocketing the difference. Options cost less than actual shares so they are a form of leverage allowing you to make (or lose) more money per dollar actually in your account.
Now here’s the rub: 138 percent of GameStop shares were shorted. Theoretically that’s not possible, of course. You can’t sell more of something than even exists. Yet from time to time that’s exactly what happens because of another concept called GREED.
Somebody (brokers in this case) makes money on all those shorts or calls, no matter how the trade is eventually resolved. Even though the contracts apply to shares that don’t actually exist, a contract is still a contract.
The seminal GameStop trade that started all this was Redditor u/DeepFuckingValue buying GameStop puts — the right to sell (rather than buy — that would be a call) GameStop shares at a specific strike price. As of yesterday this $53,000 trade had grown to about $48 million with $14 million of that in cash. That’s some Deep Fucking Value.
Communicating over the WallStreetBets subreddit, thousands of similar traders — many of them trading for free on phone apps like RobinHood — piled-on, driving UP the price of GameStop shares, making it more and more expensive for the shorts to cover their positions.
Remember, with GameStop shorted 138 percent, it might actually be IMPOSSIBLE to cover those shorts at any price. Something had to give. Either the kids going long on GameStop would accept a lower price OR the hedge funds would have to throw-in their towels, literally going out of business.
Here’s where the bullies start complaining about being bullied.
The hedges screwed themselves, but the risk they took usually works out. Only this time they are faced with an unorganized collective mindset that’s not just a non-professional group of traders but ANTI-professional traders who frankly don’t give a damn about some hedge fund’s survival.
And so they twist the knife.
Remember these are gamers who spend hours each day winning or losing, living or dying in their game. They’ve found an edge in GameStop and they aren’t going to give it up. Everyone of these small investors is a George Soros.
Today many brokers — even RobinHood — are limiting trading of AMC, GameSpot, BB&B, Blackberry and Nokia. This is within the brokers’ right to do — for a short time to adjust for “irregularities” in trading and to prevent fraud. Only fraud isn’t involved here, just the relentless pursuit of perfectly legal profit on a grand scale. This will ultimately land in court where the brokers, institutions, hedges, and probably even the regulators are hoping the gamers will by then have lost interest and moved-on. Not likely, given the class-action potential for this case.
I’ve seen claims today that RobinHood is selling some of these shares without customer consent “to protect them.” If true, you know there has to be an incredible insider story there waiting to be told.
What about the regulators? Well they let the hedges bully for decades so it is difficult to say gamers can’t be bullies, too. Which is why this problem won’t be going away unless the shorts stop shorting so much. If the hedges hadn’t been so greedy, this would never have happened.
Gordon Gekko may have been wrong after all: maybe greed ISN’T good.
I think you need to read up on what put/call options are. Sigh.
“138 percent of GameStop shares were shorted. Theoretically that’s not possible, of course.” Yes it is possible, and can exist. Imagine a hypothetical company with one share that Bob owns. Bill borrows the share from Bob and sells it to Warren. 100% of the shares are shorted. Bill borrows again, but from Warren this time, sells to Charlie. 200% are shorted.
Thanks for the tutorial. Here’s a video providing a bit more information:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ErvqnEFb-E
Right. With options, you only lose the price of the option. you don’t lose more than you put in. You CAN lose more than you put in when you short something. There’s no limit to the loss if you’re upside down on a short. They have to cover (by buying) which drives the price up even higher. For more juicy info about what happened google “GME gamma squeeze”.
Remember, it is much easier to short options than equities. So one can make a bet that Gamestop will go up by writing put options, no borrowing necessary.
Soros has been calling for better regulation for years and has written a book about it. Stock surges driven by a gang of edgelords for the lulz are a symptom not a cause and already yesterdays news. I’m also scratching my head how Mark Stephens (aka Cringely) had this “prediction” lined up before it happened. It’s more like a second day news story.
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There is no way day traders had the experience, trading ability, or access to market information of companies with entire departments and staff dedicated to this so this is not news.
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You can trace a staight line from London bankers using loopholes to create the bond market which led to Bretton Woods collapsing, through Clintons appeasement of Newt Gingrich et al for not only no measurable economic benefit but worse economic development and worse social policy, through Alan Greenspan lying through his teeth to keep attracting European investment money and dodgy Americans dumping bad debt on the world with the financial crash, through American exceptionalism and abuse of the international finance system to push agendas, blackmail, and threaten, through delaware becoming the worlds largest tax haven, through to the scenes only a few weeks ago where the American state and tiny minds playing with fire were on the receiving end of their own creation. Again, not news.
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Being a hooker and not being born yesterday and having time on my hands to read stuff means I’m very sensitive to seasonal fluctuations and the state of the market. I can say with some authority this latest wheeze happened because a bunch of frantic chumps couldn’t put their dick up something. I also have a good idea as to the state of the market sometimes months before it becomes obvious via government or the media. It’s not a conspiracy. It just takes them that long to adjust and catch up.
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I like excitement as much as anyone but by and large play it toned down and safe and generally speaking quite boring. As long as your fundamentals are solid excitement is okay as it’s a cosmetic layer. I don’t do business with edglords or fuck and runs. I’m affordable but not a conveyor belt. I like money but will never take a call just because I need the money.
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No these “small investors” are not George Soros and they’re not even investors. Do calm down with the hyperventilating.
Your comments could be quite interesting and informative. Just a shame I skip reading them because of the aggressive and insulting tone.
Your an ID10T error.
Happy birthday!
No surprise the regulators are way behind on this one because almost as a rule they can’t see the locomotive barreling down the tracks at them.
The larger question is how will a foreign “directorate” in Russia (like the GRU) or China, North Korea or Iran find this a much more lucrative and disruptive endeavor or strategy than something as costly and time consuming as election interference and media manipulation? If it has not happened the “Gamestop” episode just opened the door. The ability of foreign actors to disrupt markets, make a ton of money and sow confusion is pretty big so somebody has to get on this.
Not all short sellers are good, when bad actors misrepresent their financials or future performance it’s the short sellers that force them into the daylight. When corporate boards become self serving at the cost of accountability and innovation its the combination of activist investors and short sellers that can sometimes force needed change. Yes there are plenty of predatory hedge funds but as in many things in life there’s a lot of gray between pure good and pure evil.
Gecko was so, so, so great.. be honest, he was fucking awesome. As Bob put it, we just had a whole lot of smaller Gecko’s crushing “Sir Larry” and it was beautiful.
Now, if I could somehow work Daryl Hannah into this, it’d be perfect.
@AusTex
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One thing which caught my eye and put me in a very bad mood with Bill Clinton and america in general was his executive order directing all the military and intelligence aparatus to get behind supporting American business. What Clinto did was reinforce American exceptionalism and go all in on espionage which, I presume, included allies as well as countries on Americas shit list.
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Myself I think a very large number of problems America has are homegrown and can be traced back to the Reagan-Thatcher era. The problems go back to at least the post-WWII period but the Reagan-Thatcher era is when the gloves came off. On a range of benchmarks US-UK have more than few problems and pigeons coming home to roost.
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Any student of military theory knows an adversary does not sit on their hands. America may simply have been outplayed at its own game or it may be America simply shot itelf in the foot. Ditto the UK too but that is a world of personal pain I’d rather not discuss. It’s far to tiresome and involved. Along with a number of European and other nations I wouldbn’t be surprised if Russia and China are simply sitting there doing nothing and looking on baffled and bemused at what is happening in America. They are not dummies either so probably have been up to tricks but then everyone is. This is not news.
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I don’t trade stocks, and I don’t have any American or Russian clients and my life is much simpler because of it. I have no illusions “they” know who I am and they know where to find me if they want me. So far no interest but if there is I take cash.
Yea, crazy, imagine a president who put America first. Horrible, what a terrible idea!
Cheaters put themselves first. That is what we dislike about them.
They are not unique in so doing. But who tells the difference?
https://ibb.co/JkDnzWB says it all
@GG
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Learn to tell the difference between a unipolar world and a multipolar world. Blowhards and double standards and exploitation gets boring very quickly in any relationship. Speaking as an escort I have zero respect for any man who tries it on and they either don’t get to be a client or are an ex-client very fast. As for one of your ex presidents who was too cheap to pay for it (like most of your ex presidents including “pussy grabber”) do learn to behave and don’t be cheap.
Soros was trading on insider information in 1991. He found out what Midlands Bank FX Trading Desk positions were through very illegal means. He knew the Bank of England had to “defend the pound” to stop the UK’s second largest bank from going bankrupt. Instantly. That’s how bad Midlands Bank FX positions were. Multi billion cash calls due. The Bank of England would not have intervened otherwise and Soros would have lost somewhere north of 300M pounds on his positions and we would never have heard of him again. He is basically a fraudster.
Thats how Soros makes his money. Insider trading. Exactly the same when he unwound overnight his huge Swiss Franc positions based on the Euro peg which once the board of the Swiss Central Bank decided in great secrecy to abandon Soros acted immediately on his insider information and liquidated his position before the information was made public. Without that inside information Soros losses on his positionw would have been so large he would have been completely wiped out. His leverage was exceptionally height.
Nothing special about Soros. He is just another Bernie Madoff type. Lots of them in the FX business.
@tfourier.
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Knock it off with the Jew baiting conspiracy theory claims. Soros is nothing like a Bernie Madoff. Not even close. Also if you have any evidence of Soros insider trading please present it or submit it to law enforcement because insider trading is unlawful. If not stop repeating gossip and rumour you heard off another random know nothing numbnuts on the internet.
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P.S. Madoff was running a ponzi scheme. You can’t even get this right.
@trashtalk..
So you are still stuck in your dingy little bedsit? Somewhere like Bristol was nt it. Quiet a little fantasist are nt you. For a spotty little herbert..
You know as little about the financial world as you do about anything else by the sound of it. Both the Midlands Bank FX trading book story and the CHF / Euro peg unwind escapades were very much discussed in the relevant media at the time and followed with much interest by those familiar with more interesting by-ways of the FX trade. Know anything about reverse repos as a tax avoidance scheme. Soros certainly does. Much cleaner than carried interest.
Insider trading unlawful…you really dont have a ******* clue how the real world works. Only the really stupid or really arrogant get caught. The reason Madoff lasted as long as he did is because everyone in the business though he was just front running. Like most of the other players.
And of course the inevitable jew baiting angle when it comes to anyone who dares point out Soros’s long history of finical frauds. Do you actually know any jews? Maybe I should introduce you to my Israeli friends and my Jewish significant other.
You really are an utterly pathetic little tosser. So amply demonstrated in all your other utterly banal and content free contributions here.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/french-court-finds-soros-guilty-of-insider-trading-1.453041
https://tulsaworld.com/archive/paris-court-finds-billionaire-guilty-of-insider-trade/article_7f6ea26a-ebff-5b2d-ba92-c0460c971552.html
https://www.ft.com/content/063501c2-f02e-11e0-977b-00144feab49a
I tried to find a recent article to see whatever came of that decision: All I could find was this from March, 2012:
https://tulsaworld.com/business/soros-insider-trading-appeal-rejected-by-european-court/article_e0ee69b9-eafc-588a-a0cd-60d5110ab827.html . It ends with this: “Soros’ lawyer, Ron Soffer, said his client will appeal the latest ruling.” Anyone know the result of that appeal? If he didn’t appeal or lost, did he ever pay the amount requested?
He appealed to European Court of Human Rights and he lost. George Soros of course did not care about 2.2 million euros but he did not like insider trading conviction on his record. Link:
https://www.nexchangenow.com/news/47893/george-soros-part-five-soros-in-court/
As you can see here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Court_of_Human_Rights
European Court of Human Rights lacks enforcement powers.so even if they voted in his favor Paris court could just reject their opinion.
After European Court of Human Rights voted against him he appealed to the Grand Chamber of the same Court
and they refused to review the case – that was dead end.
Paris court verdict is final.
He paid fine immediately after Paris court verdict.
So. Fourier. Transform much?
I thought his name sounded familiar.
As for Mark Stephen’s (aka Cringely) “predications” and claims of being a journalist this is real journalism:
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https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/01/why-everybody-obsessed-gamestop/617857/
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Pretty much what I said…
Carefully thought out predictions or simply reacting to current events?
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In truth shorting shares should be banned. Along with borrowing of those shares. Investors should sue whichever fund manager rented out those shares with the purpose of de-valuing them for their own profit via their lease charge. They have actively engaged in lowering the value of your property.
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Hedge funds should be forced to buy the shares, just like every other investor.
I disagree on many counts that banning “shorts” is the answer. The reality is companies have a multitude of reasons and opportunities to cover up their mistake or even fraud. It is very difficult for even seasoned investors to peel back the onion to uncover deception. I have watched many corporate boards fail to function as oversight let alone kick a CEO out. Shorts are usually folks who have smelled a rat and have invested risk capital to profit from that. There’s nothing wrong with that.
So as long as corporate governance and fiduciary duty are quaint artifacts or considered dinosaurs I don’t mind short sellers and activists taking corporate boards and leadership to task. Getting named to the board of a listed corporation is a cushy gig for life which is why you see these dullards hanging on for years and years or rotating from one nest to another like mockingbird eggs. Anything that helps transparency and accountability for the investor is cool with me, as long as its the truth.
[…] I, Cringley – Get Ready for More GameStops […]
“This is coordinated action of thousands of traders toward a specific and guaranteed profitable end.”
That is not correct. A bunch of people decided that they would collectively lose 10s of billions of dollars to teach a hedge fund a lesson. True some people will be smart enough to liquidate before everyone else but there is still going to be a lot of people who bought at $350 who end up with a stock at <$10 a year from now (more likely the losses will be taken much sooner as they move on to the next gamble). These are just the latest batch of the patsies that have always driven the stock market gains of the more savvy or well-connected investors. It is just in this case the manipulators are a few guys on Reddit instead of the usual suspects.
If you think of it as an entertainment event, your example of $350 is a small price to pay for a ticket. Enough people have that sort of money to throw away. Gamers might spend that much buying a bigger spaceship or weapons in whatever game they’re playing.
Melvin Capital has already closed out their short position with a loss of $3 billion. Other hedge funds have also probably lost billions.
But Redditors are still currently making money hand over fist, and at the worst are only risking small amounts.
Who did you say the patsies were again?
I’ve just seen a client and a bit woozy from a few glasses of wine so not going to make much sense if any. Yes I’m about as Covid secure as you can get under the circumstances. I’m not an idiot. Oh, how we looked into each other eyes and kissed as he departed. My body still relishing in and yearning for more of his lewd considerations… Long deep sigh…
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@george
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Yes, it was a classic “I am so innocent really and didn’t mean honestly governor to create a mobbing to hide a pump and dump scheme so I could get rich” kind of scheme. Ordinary guy with a plastic slide in his front garden kind fo guy my ass was he. He knew exactly what he was doing. As for “OMG they’re being unfair to us” the broker was basically a company which made its profit off negotiating buying and sellign and needed to freeze things while it arranged fiannce to cover its position due to the two day delay in trading. No different than a bookies ffreezing trading. Anyone going OMG capitalism whine whine they’re cheating whine wine simply doesn’t understand the system. The system worked as designed. Nobody “won” anything. I agree it was a couple of sharks who played saps on Reddit. But I’m drunk on a very agreeable Chilean cabernet sauvignon and am just a hooker so what do I know?
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I actually think I write better when drunk but won’t really know until I sober up tomorrow. The sex was of course lovely. Sadly no more until a few weeks of isolation have passed. On the other hand I have a goodly pile of cash. Sex and money is actually really nice. It’s like coffee and cream. The two go together really well.
@tfourier
Whatever. So far so wrong but whatever. Don’t get me started on political analysis. I will rip you into atoms. as for tonight I’m sobering up before bed and spent a few agreeable hours with a client. I’m in a really good mood and there’s not much you can do about this. I don’t really care whatever the fuck you say. Plenty of men like to stretch my pussy. Who the fuck are you?
@wwwpirate.
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Thanks.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2011/oct/06/george-soros-insider-dealing-european-court-of-human-rights
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This isn’t insider trading as I understand it. I’m not even sure it counts as ripping off a potential client. None of the articles I have read go into details of how the business decisions are arrived at when you received unsolicited offers. None of the articles cite the French law. That said the judgment of the European Court of Human Rights probably did get this one right as a matter of law when protecting the public and the balance of expertise is considered. It is also notable that French law is Civil Law. Even if Soros did not intend to commit insider trading he would trip on this unlike Common Law which local courts tend to turn a blind eye to the balance of expertise versus the law and case law.
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I cannot find any legal commentary worth reading and am too lazy to look up the court judgment.
The best article I’ve see about this, by Matt Taibbi:
https://taibbi.substack.com/p/suck-it-wall-street
The whole article is worth reading.
@trashtalk Gravitar should work as long as the email address you use to set up a Gravitar is the same as the email address you enter in your post here.
@GreenWyvern
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There is a large element of ego in this whole Gamestop thing! It’s a bigger topic for a lot of reasons but in all honesty I’m too tired to discuss.
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I’m using a new email address for the gravatar as the previous email address I was using was a fake comical email address. The new email address is simply not recognised and any post using it disappears. It doesn’t matter whether I use this current name or a new name in the gravatar profile. I’m using PG avatar pictures but it was problematic with G rated avatars too.
I thought EditorDavid on Slashdot was too embarassed to post this garbage “prediction” from Mark Stephens (aka Cringely). Apparently not.
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https://tech.slashdot.org/story/21/01/30/1928248/will-mark-zuckerberg-retire-from-facebook-in-2022
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Highest rated comments on Slashdot when I looked:
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and
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“… or when you exercise the option to buy the stock at a price that’s below the strike price and then sell the stock in the open market, pocketing the difference.”
“strike [price]” should be “share [price]”.
Options are exercised at the strike price. One cannot exercise an option to buy or sell below or above the strike price. Unless it’s some off-beat options contract that most people don’t trade.
Silver, anyone?
The only investments I make are in clothes and makeup and any cosmetic surgery I may need. This is a solid asset and makes cock go up and down and gets me more cash. I like cash. Cash is good. There’s nothing like the feeling of holding a fat pile of cash obtained by sex. If I had gold or diamonds they would make me more if I wore them on me than any trading in them. The profit on plastic and glass is ten times again and all in sweet glorious cash. Sex and cash I get but the stock market? I know about the regulation and political issues. As for trading I don’t have a clue and it bores me.
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Actually the more I think about it the reason prostitution is illegal in the US is you lot couldn’t stop whipping it out and blowing the lot. That’s the real truth of the matter. I don’t say it now but oh my life the look on clients faces when I have told them “You make it so I can spend it”. I also swear half the reason for protests about the fur trade isn’t animal welfare but jealousy by the kinds of women who couldn’t give it away.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prostitution_in_the_United_States#:~:text=Prostitution%20is%20illegal%20in%20the,laws%20rather%20than%20federal%20laws.&text=Currently%2C%20Nevada%20is%20the%20only,in%20the%20Nevada%20Revised%20Statutes.
Only low end prostitution here is assumed something dirty and mostly prohibited (except Nevada) but high end prostitution is legal and glorified they even get their own tv shows (Kardashians, Real Housewives of….)
In English law prostitition is made difficult but it’s not illegal. Uniquely because of the consent issue no contract is binding. Strictly speaking men are only paying for my time and even this can be debateable. The fact that prostitution is not illegal under US federal law yet most states ban it is a comment on the right wingers with their paranoid ideas about federal government and state freedoms. They also like the right to wave their guns around yet I can’t wave my pussy about? Not that I literally wave it about because, hey, laws of phsyics, but you know what I mean.
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I was doing some market research last month and looked at porn magazines from around the world. American porn magazines strike me as being a bit on the plastic bimbo or aggressive side.
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New York is this week trying to decriminalise prostitution and introduce the so-called Nordic model. The Nordic model is a crock of shit. I work independently and have no boss and a choice of venues to advertise and the money is all mine. I’m out of the rat race and don’t have to put up with nosey parkers or pen pushers grifting away at telling me what to do. Find a decent aletrnative job and salary I would consider and I will listen but until then all this Nordic model does is scare off decent clients. I know my job and some dumbfuck white knight do-gooder politician breezing in with an agenda is not helping so these “concern” politicians can take a hike. They are just disempowering sex workers and man haters and looking at the pair of them they couldn’t give it away. Decriminalise it, keep equality and anti-trafficking laws in place, build an economy and public services so people have genuine choices and options. That’s the only way really. You can’t legislate human nature away and the Nordic model causes more problems than it solves.
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Not only that but I can get to New York easily and I’m pretty sure there is a market there. Rich men with deals to celebrate like the icing on the cake.
This is one of many articles analyzing this event. Buried in the middle is the kernel of truth, which simply says that, as with all stock market transactions, there are buyers and sellers with opposite views as to the future direction of its price movement, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-25/how-wallstreetbets-pushed-gamestop-shares-to-the-moon:
“With GameStop’s shares and profits both falling for years, a thread by user ‘delaneydi’ said detractors were undervaluing the retailer’s cash, with which the shares were deceptively cheap…’My thesis is not contingent on a turnaround or business expansion, this is solely a deep value play,’ wrote delaneydi. ‘Even if we assume double-digit top line sales declines and gross margin contraction, the companies valuation does not reflect the current earnings power, especially when considering the companies large cash horde.’ (WSB posters are not distinguished by their spelling or punctuation.)”
I’m almost starting to miss Roger and Jeremy. Almost.
They mostly come at night. Mostly.
Aw, I’m glad that you almost miss me.
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I haven’t gone anywhere. I’m just finding that Cringely is becoming more and more boring to the point of pointlessness. Why bother even addressing such inanity?
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If he ever gets around to talking about Mineservers, I might chime in, just to remind folks of the timeline of endless lies and broken promises. But I’m not holding my breath.
Has anyone else noticed the number of trackbacks on Mark Stephen’s (aka Cringely) blog has dropped off a cliff?
The Redditors strike again!
On 15th January Bob said “The last of these prediction columns will be an update on my Mineserver project that, but that will be 7-10 days from now.”.
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Now 4th February. 20 days after his statement.
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I think with that any credibility Bob could have saved has sailed…
Cut Bob some slack!
Getting up at 03:30 a.m. to make donuts at the local shop takes it out of a man.
And he is getting older; possibly slower.
I, myself, have never been particularly good at estimating how long something will take.
Used to work with a guy. Programmer; systems analyst. People would ask, “How long is it gonna take before we can use this program?”
His reply? “I don’t know. I’ve never programmed something like this before!”
He once spent a weekend teaching himself virtually everything one would need to know to program a TSR. Then he spent Monday programming it. It used a text file as input and would allow you to create a custom phone list. Type ALT-ALT-ALT and it would display. We’d install it in the root directory of DOS-based machines and it would load from autoexec. I later re-purposed it to keep track of all my laser discs. We discovered that we could get it to run under Windows 95. We just had to invoke a specific display mode to render DOS text. Worked a treat.
No. Probably not now.
Bob I really like new look of your blog. Simple, elegant and beautiful. Really nice make over.
It’s literally wordpress’s default theme lol
There is one problem with the home page. It no longer shows the comment count for each article, so you have to open each article and scroll down to see the number, then close the page if it hasn’t changed.
imho Mark Stephens (aka Cringely) did this on purpose. It’s like he doesn’t actually want anyone to read his blog and worse he is actively concealing reader feedback. Total con artist.
“Remember, with GameStop shorted 138 percent, it might actually be IMPOSSIBLE to cover those shorts at any price. Something had to give.”
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More expert advice from Bob “I Read The Wiki” Cringely. Nothing had to give because 138% shorted isn’t what you think it means, and it was never IMPOSSIBLE to cover them all because most of them didn’t exist.
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These were “synthetic longs” and they are created by option traders. You can read more about them here: https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/trading-investing/synthetic-long-asset/
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Most estimates are that around 60% of Gamestop’s float was shorted at any given time prior to the squeeze. That is not good. That’s actually very bad. But it’s not as if 100% of the stock was shorted, and then another 38% was shorted again. That’s what Bob actually believes, that’s what a lot of people were lead to believe in order to get them to hold the bags of pump’n’dumpers at the peak of the pump, but it’s not true. Thankfully by the time this piece came out everything was more or less set in stone and the dump was underway, and I doubt anyone would listen to Cringely’s financial advice anyway.
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Would be great to freshen this place up with a new tagline. Something like “I, Cringely: Proving Every Day That a Little Bit of Knowledge is Indeed a Very Dangerous Thing.”
Synthetic longs you speak of wouldn’t affect the short interest, they’d only show up in the open interest for the GME calls & puts.
GUARANTEED profitable? Sounds like you drank the kool-aid too, Robert.
The fact is that GameStop loses money every quarter, and it’s present valuation is far beyond even “irrational exuberance.” At some point, one or more of the new shareholders will realize this, and will sell their position. When enough shares are sold, this will trigger an avalanche. People who bought into the scheme, thinking they were “guaranteed” a profit, will see their shares plummet in value.
Will Bob claim victory on this prediction with Gamestop volatility coming back to life? Probably.
I interpreted “more Gamestops” to mean a similar situation can happen to another stock, so the prediction is not that Gamestop will become volatile a second time, but that the Hegefunds and Reddit-like buyers will disagree in the future about the value of some other stock, causing a short squeeze in that other stock.
read
https://truth-uae.com/en/the-importance-of-business-valuation/