Readers have been asking me to comment on Apple’s decision, announced at last week’s World Wide Developers’ Conference, to start switching to Apple-designed ARM processors for its Macintosh computers. I usually don’t like to do second-day (or, in the case, second-week) stories unless I can add something new to the discussion. Oddly, I usually can and that’s the case here, where Apple’s move to ARM has a big-picture strategy component that is absolutely vital to the company’s continued success. It also doesn’t seem to be covered yet anywhere but here.
Forget all the talk about Apple moving to ARM because the chips are better than Intel’s or consume less power. You can even forget the idea that using its own chips allows Apple to be more secretive. While these points are all true, Apple would still be moving to ARM even if they weren’t. The switch is all about money, which comes down to Apple’s cost of goods on one hand and Apple’s market capitalization on the other.
Quite simply, Apple-designed ARM chips will be cheaper than continuing to use Intel chips. In a market with continued downward price pressure, this will help Apple maintain the higher profit margins that help make the company so uniquely valuable. Yes, the chips will also consume less power, make less heat and — this is really important — be designed-into the Apple ecosystem far more than Intel’s merchant chips ever could be. But what counts most of all is the money: they are cheaper.
Looking toward 2021 and 2022, Apple has two things going for it. In 2021, especially, 5G will drive a billion people to get new iPhones, so Tim Cook and Apple can breathe easily for the next year.
For 2022 the salutary effect of those cheaper and more capable Apple-ARM processors will stimulate fanboys to replace their Mac desktops and notebooks 3-4 times faster than they otherwise might. Hardware that lasts too long has been a problem for Apple and this is one way around that.
I just replaced my mid-2010 MacBook Pro with a second-hand mid-2014 MacBook Air to get the scissors keyboard along with the ability to run Catalina. Apple hates that I did that. So by 2022 they’ll have a new notebook that has a good keyboard and is enough better in all respects that I’ll probably buy my first new MacBook in 12 years.
But what about after 2022? How does Apple keep its mojo going then? Here’s where we need to discuss Cupertino’s big number problem.
Depending on the date, Apple is either the first-, second-, or third-most valuable company on Earth, worth significantly more than $1 trillion. To CEO Tim Cook that means he’ll never have to worry about some other company trying to buy Apple because no other company can afford to write a check that big. But that big market cap also means that continuing to grow is a real challenge for Apple, because pretty much anything new they plan won’t be big enough to affect the company’s bottom line. That’s why Apple labels some businesses as hobbies.
Apple’s stock price and Tim Cook’s compensation are driven largely by profits, so the company always wants to make more money. But Apple already makes plenty of money, so in recent years stock buy-backs have been an easy way to achieve earnings goals. But the feds are starting to look with disdain on stock buy-backs just as they are taking second and third looks at companies like Apple, Google, and Facebook for possible anti-trust violations. So Apple can’t buy back stock as vigorously as in the past and has to find new ways to increase profitability. Yet those new ways can’t, in turn, lead to increased anti-trust exposure.
One thing Apple can do and get away with is increase its vertical integration, which is where these ARM chips come in. There is nothing illegal about Apple designing its own chips and benefiting from economies made possible by those designs. It’s a matter of filling-in gaps in the Apple eco-system, which is why they are dumping Intel.
Apple can continue to grow, but only by doing entirely new things, entering markets where it has never trod before.
When it comes to semiconductors, then, Apple has two possible moves with the first being designing its own chips. The second possible move, which should be Apple’s big announcement in 2022-23, is buying TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) — the outfit that actually builds those ARM chips. TSMC also happens to be the best semiconductor manufacturer on the planet right now and worth whatever Apple has to pay.
That’s my bold prediction, which seems a no-brainer to me.
Buying TSMC will give Apple something to do with its extra cash while at the same time solving a very big problem for TSMC, itself, which is what to do about Beijing wanting to grab Taiwan.
Selling to Apple will make the wealth of TSMC’s current owners both liquid and portable right when they’ll probably be looking for new places to live. And by making TSMC a part of Apple — a U.S. company of strategic importance to Washington — Beijing will be chastened somewhat in its corporate dominance.
What will Tim Cook do for an encore after buying TSMC? Well, Steve Jobs told me in August 2011 (his last e-mail to me) that Cook would run Apple “until Reed is ready to take over.” 2023-2024 should be about right.
— Apparently this is where I am supposed to tell you how much Apple stock I own (zero), how much TSMC stock I own (also zero) and how much stock of any type I own (yup, zero). Thanks for reading.
Great logic. Since Apple also manufactures in China, adding TSMC seems like a real cost savings, no-brainer. The x86 architecture is pretty long in the tooth too. I can’t help wondering if Microsoft, despite its failure with Nokia phones, will also be lured into hardware-based acquisitions. Certainly Windows could run on any CPU and probably already does on ARM somewhere.
If buying TSMC is a “no-brainer”, why wouldn’t Apple have bought out TSMC already? They have been using them as a manufacturer for their iPhone and iPad chips for five years now, which ship in much larger volumes than the Macintosh. All of the arguments made in this blog post for buying TSMC would have applied just as much five years ago as they do today. So why didn’t Apple do it?
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The answer is that it [i]doesn’t[/i] actually make any sense to buy out the company that you contract to for manufacturing, because you lose the flexibility and gain huge amounts of overhead for no actual gain. Prior to using TSMC, Apple contracted with Samsung to produce their chips. When TSMC was able to provide better efficiency for less money, Apple could easily switch. In the future, if some other fab company can out-do TSMC, Apple can easily switch to them as well. But they couldn’t do that if they bought TSMC.
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It’s the same reason that Apple hasn’t bought out Foxconn.
This is correct. Gold star for Jeremy.
You and Jeremy may very well be correct. I have no idea. But this discussion makes me wonder why anyone would buy a house or a condo when they can be rented.
Also, Windows has run on ARM chips ever since the ill-fated Surface RT shipped in 2012, and you can buy Windows 10 on ARM today with the Surface X Pro. The device has not gotten great reviews, but it certainly exists.
Very plausible line of thinking. What customers would TSMC lose because of being owned by Apple, and is it a sufficient number to thwart the economics of a purchase?
@Mark – another stock pimping post without any mention of your personal positions or holdings.
Can’t Beijing organise a buyout of TSMC to keep it out of Westerna hands?
Forget it all its about software and of course chips,Listen up and learn Android runs on Linux..so Android dont need license to produce operating system.Apple on the dark side of it however requires the owner to be involved on licensing….get the idea OK?! by the time youve read this article here somewhere in Russia/North Korea/Cuba/China who knows where they have replicated British pound notes.Yep you guessed it the space age techno and chips have created printing machines that creat perfect counterfit,not only that the organizations making them have bought UK note testers,the notes are so perfect that they run right through the testing machines.The notes are dumped in Italian and Arab banks then destroyed as evidence…
Two words: Alu-mi-num FOOOOO-IIIIIIIllLLLLLLL.
One Word….What?
Saying someone is “wearing a tin foil hat” or “is a tin foil hat” means that they have paranoia or a belief in conspiracy theories, especially involving government surveillance or paranormal beings. Originally, the term referred to the practice of wearing headgear consisting of metal foil to block mind-reading.
Tin foil was marketed commercially from the late nineteenth into the early twentieth century. The term “tin foil” survives in the English language as a term for the newer aluminium foil. Tin foil is less malleable than aluminium foil and tends to give a slight tin taste to food wrapped in it.
Aluminium foil – Wikipediaen
Thanks for the explanation. I guess I was too confused about the connection between his Android comment and the British pound stuff. Also, I really couldn’t take seriously the comment about perfect counterfeits, since if it really worked, word would get around quickly until everyone did it. I actually thought the aluminum foil comment was in reference to Bob’s metal foil hard drives: https://www.cringely.com/2011/04/22/memo-from-the-bleeding-edge/ . My dad was part of the greatest generation, who called aluminum-foil tin-foil, and who originally explained the phrase “tin-foil hat” to me, along with “tulip-mania”, and wheelbarrows full of worthless cash notes. But I digress. As part of the baby-boomer generation, aluminum was way more common than tin, so I thought only my dad’s generation could see a box of clearly labeled “Reynolds Wrap” and call it tin foil.
Wow, I had missed all the details about Cringely’s tin-foil hard drive fiasco.
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Looking back, it has all the familiar hallmarks:
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1. Announce something that is so amazingly revolutionary that it will change the world. Take as much credit as you can for it, while mentioning the actual scientists and engineers who came up with the idea as a mere footnote. Say that it will be ready in “a year”.
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2. A year passes. Say nothing.
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3. Four more years pass. Post a long article full of excuses. But make an EVEN GRANDER claim this time, that you’re doubling down, and you’re on the brink of something even MORE amazing that will finally make your original dream happen (in this case, the hard drives were going to be built with NANOTECHNOLOGY!!!!)
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4. Nothing happens. Say nothing about it ever again.
You’ll also notice that same [foil-drive] article has a reference to “launching a rocket to the moon in a year’s time,” with “a deal for the video-streaming rights already worked out.” The cyclical parallels are… uncanny.
So this has nothing to do with having a common processor platform across tablets and computers?
It has everything to do with a single CPU across all devices. The fanbois are too busy with speculation to see that a single CPU across all devices, means programs will “just work” across all devices without needing intermediary SDKs to cross the bridge.
It’s cheaper for Apple in code overhead because they will no longer have to support two architectures moving forward. It’s cheaper for software developers and opens a whole new world for companies like Adobe who want to create an app that seamlessly crosses between all devices, something Google and Microsoft have been trying for the last decade and still haven’t managed to figure out.
It’s a good move all around for everyone involved in the Apple ecosystem.
I predict that, while in theory this might be practicable, in practice it will remain a theory.
This doesn’t even work with GNU C or even Java across different types of PCs, but somehow it will work tablet to Macbook.
ASML is just as vital to semiconductors, and half TSMC’s market cap.
I thought that the ARM move made sense for the first reasons you mention but hadn’t considered the others. Buying TSMC makes sense. Will you get a consultancy fee, Bob?!!
I think these arguments make sense but what about the operating system? Windows-10 is an end-user disaster and moving away from Intel means that Apple could start to pull users from the Microsoft environment with the opportunity to support the existing Windows end-users while ensuring that, as users move into the Apple environment, there is no path to return to the Windows world.
Where do I start here? With all the huss and fuss about Apple, Mac OS has not been able to have a share more than 15% of of all OSs. And what’s its share in corporate computing, probably below 1%!
Do you think any corporate could ever shift to to an Apple environment? Apple is [nice] for your laptop but its environment is way too restrictive for any corporation. This will never ever happen. Despite all problems in Windows, the OS never corners you into choosing specific hardware manufacturers. If works with any machine and any system.
Not sure what your background is, but I’m a corporate engineer and I can easily tell you, no sane person woulf pick Mac OS over Windows or oven Linux/Unix.
“Do you think any corporate could ever shift to to an Apple environment?” Yeah it’s called iOS and they have been playing heavily there for years. Over billion devices, that makes it equal to Windows. SO this just makes the move easier.
IBM switched to Macs – 90,000 of them and FedEx too. I don not know how switch to ARM will affect that because I suppose they run either Boot Camp or WMware Fusion also but Hush is 100 % right – Macs are non-existent in business environment.
iOS is just a cosmetic work in business environment. All real work is done on real stuff – desktops and laptops.
I’m not sure you know what you are talking about. iOS is the mobile OS from Apple. It works fine for your iPhone and iPad but do you sincerely think iOS works for people who do real work on computers. And by real work I don’t mean word processing and spreadsheet, I mean simulations and computation. Most software packages whether commercial or open-source are non-existent on OSx (the desktop OS or Apple), you think it will work on iOS? I am talking from experience here. If I wake up tomorrow and found my company had switched to Apple, I and my whole department might as well hit a beach in the Bahamas for retirement. Real computing does not find a place on Apple gimmicky OS. It’s way too restrictive (and I can’t even stress this enough).
Businesses are bankrolling Surface.
It seems Apple has only 7% of computer market share. Link:
https://mondaynote.com/apple-silicon-the-passing-of-wintel-79a5ef66ad2b
Jean-Louis Gassée is a business executive. He is best known as a former executive at Apple Computer, where he worked from 1981 to 1990. He also founded Be Inc., creators of the BeOS computer operating system. After leaving Be, he became Chairman of PalmSource, Inc. in November 2004.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Louis_Gassée
@Edmund
Can you elaborate little bit more why is Windows 10 an end-user disaster as you call it ?
Personally I think legalizing dope can be bad to your brain but I am ready to listen and change my mind if you give me an articulate arguments.
We don’t need to give Edmund the benefit of the doubt. It is easy to find any given number of anecdotes from people who don’t like Windows 10. While we are talking about utterly meaningless testimony, I may as well mention that my own experience with Windows 10 has been the opposite: for me, it is the first trouble-free version of Windows, better than 8, which was better than 7, and everything before that was maddening junk. It might be a little harder to find anecdotes agreeing with me, simply because unhappy people make more noise than happy people; but no doubt, with a little pertinacity, the positive stories can also be piled up to any desired height.
The point is that people’s experiences with Windows 10 are radically inconsistent, and that in itself is arguably a red flag. And there is no way to estimate the lost productivity stolen from innumerable businesses by earlier versions of Windows and Office — such a scarring experience, for many, that they continue to attribute it to the newer versions, even though they are (if only with luck) better.
De gustibus non est disputandum old Romans would say.
Speaking of 3 major OSs Apple is the prettiest girl in town Linux is smartest girl and Windows is the only girl most guys will be able to meet and date ever. As Hash explained good above Windows is the only choice for businesses.
There are exemptions of course if you are really big corporations and you employ PhDs in computer science you can run any OS you want or you can even make your own OS and applications from the scratch if you really want (read somewhere it costs about 500 million $ to do it but that is not big money for big corporations) so in theory it is possible for them to do it.
For small/medium size businesses that make 80+ % of all companies Windows is the only choice. There are a few exemptions like publishing, fashion and top architectural firms that run Mac OS but they make negligible percentage of business companies.
Just read a few days ago that 3/4 of all computers in the world run Windows.
Apple products are just too expensive. It is just highway robbery. I own Mac only because I can deduct it as business expense. For the price of Mac Pro you can buy home supercomputer from Velocity Micro or some other computer manufacturer with 4 Tesla graphic cards and Apple even does not support Nvidia top cards which are the only choice for top cards. I won’t even talk about $ 1,000 monitor stand or other bullshit.
Main problems with Windows computers are they come with insufficient memory. In order to run Windows 10 you need 8 GB RAM i5 processor and 1 TB SSD hard drive and you will not have major problems. We are talking about $ 700-800 here. RAM memory is most important.
My main problem with people complaining about Windows is they never explain why they don’t like it – they just say they don’t like it – so what is exact problem ? If you have money to buy Bentley or Rolls-Royce there is nothing wrong with that just do it and enjoy yourself – but if you can’t afford it and you will never be able to afford it so be happy with your Chevy and don’t complain all the time because it looks and sounds stupid.
Once again most guys are not going a date with Beyonce or that 30 year old PhD assistant professor from Harvard so just choose best girl you can get in your town and that is why Windows is the only choice left.
Exactly 100% this, but it’s worth noticing that this is the sort of rule that’s ironclad until all of a sudden one day it’s not. On the other hand,
Also 100% this. If you are an Apple user, you somehow or other have the privilege of not being price-sensitive. Most people are price-sensitive, to some extent, and it seems to be really hard for privileged people to grasp the priorities of other people who are not so privileged.
Apple will never “take over the desktop” because that’s by definition impossible without Apple becoming a mass-market brand, one that competes on razor-thin-to-nonexistent margins. In other words, exactly the fate that Apple will avoid, OP thinks, by doing the things it’s doing.
Great article. And you’re right, seems like an obvious move, but will they take that long to acquire TSMC?
Yet another money orientated American centric waffle piece. Apple and Amaon etal only exist as they do because of crazy US monopoly lawsallowing big money to cannablise economies. Buy TMSC? Never going to happen. ARM only sold to Softbank (which was a front for dodgy invetors fronting Chinese money) because the owners who didn’t need the money had a rush of blood to the head and successive UK governments either dismantled strategic regulation or never took national eonomic policy seriously. Taiwan isn’t that stupid. I also guess that more than one nation state would get twitchy about the potential for US backdooring the fabrication pipeline to begin throwing landmines in an acquistions path or begin twisting arms.
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As for the American obsession with money and Cringely cynical comment about making their wealth “liquid and portable” he should know money isn’t all its cracked up to be. It’s just numbers. How you live your life, your values, what you do with your time, families and friends and communities, and control of your own destiny matters more to others. And quite frankly given the way US “dark money” has effed up the UK you can stick your dollars. I wouldn’t be surprised if Taiwan says similar.
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Apple has taken a few drastic wrong turns since Jobs got ill and burned pretty much all the goodwill it had. iTunes profitability and the iPod and later iPad which rode on this was an accident.
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Given 50% of dot com money came from Europe without which the US wouldn’t have an economy plus the last global financial crash caused by American I wouldn’t feel too trippy about Cringely’s “investment opportunities”. Note also the EU is bearing down on abuse of markets and tax dodgers and current refocus of EU strategy as floated by Merkel this week towards economy building.
Can’t agree more. Given the rogue politics the current US administration has been practicing, many players of the world will make sure this never happens.
The article oversees the fact that Apple, and every US IT company for that matter, is way over-valuated. There is a huge bubble factor in the number American companies reflect. A small look at facebook’s number the past couple of weeks, one gets and idea of what a bubble looks like. Does Theranos and its $10 billion valuation ring a bell? No question Apple has been and is a very successful company and comparing it to scams like Theranos is probably not right, however, the valuation of Apple at 1 T$ or even 2T$ won’t put it in a situation to be able to buy TSMC.
tt…You make sense. I like it.
Apple won’t buy the foundry. Apple is becoming a bank, with hardware and software becoming a bait to have users buying services, more like side commodity than like products.
Services, and financial services in particular, are to be the key money making gear to Apple.
Maybe Apple will sell its hardware branch to a big Chinese company.
IMHO.
Next up: Microsoft buys TMSC and moves windows to ARM chips.
Next up: Microsoft buys TMSC and moves windows to ARM chips.
Microsoft is kind of all in on Qualcomm for their ARM chips. But either way it doesn’t matter because the vast majority of Windows machines aren’t sold by Microsoft. The benefit of Apple making their own processors is that they can be tightly integrated into whatever roadmap Apple has for their devices, in the same way that the iPhone benefits from the A13 chip versus an off the shelf component from Qualcomm. But that only works if you control both the software and hardware environment. You can’t do that as long as 95% of PCs are Dells, HPs, Acers, or even home built kits. I mean, certainly they can try, and it wouldn’t be unthinkable to grab a market share as large as Apples for Surface machines, but how happy are the OEMs going to be if MS starts giving their machines features that can only exist with Windows on ARM, software that the OEMs can’t even license.
“Readers have been asking me to comment on Apple’s decision…”
Readers have been asking you to comment on the Mineserver con too.
“I usually don’t like to do second-day (or, in the case, second-week) stories…”
How about second-year (or, in the case of the Mineservers, nearly 5-year) stories?
Are you really just going to continue to ignore the whole mess in the hopes that it will go away? How very grown-up of you.
Oh, just fuck off you grovelling little cunt.
I mean, it’s fair game, if Cringely is going to use the “readers are asking…” card, to inquire why Bob isn’t ever going to address the things that readers actually are asking.
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All Bob has to do is tell the truth, for once in his life. It’s not hard. He just has to actually do it. Then all of this goes away.
“Oh, just fuck off you grovelling little cunt.”
Well, first off… I’ll bet your parents will be really happy when the middle schools finally open up again.
Next, to quote one of the greatest films/books of all time… “You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.” Specifically, “grovelling” means “Acting obsequiously in order to obtain forgiveness or favour.” (And I’ll save you the trouble of asking — “obsequiously” means in a manner “Obedient or attentive to an excessive or servile degree.”) Both definitions are from lexico.com in case there are other words you need to look up.
I’m really *not* trying to curry “forgiveness or favour”; quite the opposite. Instead of acting servile, I am chastising Crookely. I am taking him to task for his failures.
While I’m definitely not “little”, I’ll overlook that as you likely have no idea of what I do look like.
But lastly, I would like to point out that using “cunt” as a pejorative — as if there was something bad about a woman’s reproductive system — shows you to be an infantile, immature person and thus one who can safely be ignored.
And yet, you didn’t ignore him.
The universe (or multiverse) takes care of everyone and everything in its own time. Why waste the energy?
Why waste the energy asking someone why they are wasting energy?
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We can play this game forever. Ultimately, it doesn’t take that much effort to reply to a comment, especially one aimed directly at oneself. It tends to be worth the effort when it exposes the commenter’s childishness or lack of logic, and doubly so when the commenter fails to reply back.
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Cringely used to reply to many comments back in the day. Not so much any more.
… some people really need a hobby.
Roger Kanye West is running for President 2020. I think you could be great pick for Vice President 2020 on his ticket and 2024 you can run on your own for President 2024.
Make America Great Again Roger because Trump won’t
Haha… even POTUS doesn’t have enough power to make it worth putting up with all the other crap that goes along with it. Not being able to drive? Not being able to ride a skateboard? Not being able to wander in to some little hole-in-the-wall restaurant without it having been completely pre-checked? Not being able to attend a music festival? No thanks.
Offer me the position of King of the World with ultimate authority and I’ll consider it.
@Roger,
Yeah, but consider how well it worked out for the last King(s) of the World.
[…] Oddly, I usually can and that's the case here, where Apple's move to ARM has a big-picture strategy component that is absolutely vital to the company's … View full source […]
Reed is never taking over Apple. He’s a medical researcher for Pete’s sake.
No, buying a fab is a bad idea. The next node costs billions, and the one after that even more.
Much better to be the biggest customer, and constantly threaten to leave for Samsung, or back to Intel.Just like Walmart can abuse their suppliers, Apple will do the same.
I’ve worked in a true fab company. The billions invested make for weird behavior. Sometime the tail wags the dog. After putting in 4-6 Billion for the 5nm node, not making the chips is impossible. Yes, even if it does not make $$ sense. Assured Apple business in the fab will make it fat and slow. If the fab is part of Apple, they can’t switch out the manufacturing.
Plus TSMC also makes parts for many large companies, AMD is big, and others. Apple would not want to be the supplier to other top 500 companies. They prefer consumer markets they can control, with no one dictating to them. TSMC puts the fab technology cost on multiple customers.
And the people. Fabs need lots and lots of people. Overhead walks on two legs. Why not buy Foxcon? Foxcon would murder to keep the Apple business, and Apple has no guilty conscience for the workers doing the actual assembly, much better for Apple. They don’t want to have the people as real Apple employees, thinking they get full benefits.
Nope. Usually great Bob, but not on this one.
Why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free?
I also think it’s a bad idea for any customer to buy TSMC. Partly because of the big cost of every new node and the headaches of dealing with all the other customers requirements, but mostly because TSMC is the best fab in the world _right now_. Next year maybe it’s Samsung, or Intel. Every single process node is a new game where all the players make their best guess and a year or two later they find out who was right. Apple would be smart to keep their options open. Apple does have to worry about maintaining a stable supply of chips, and since TSMC is the best game in town right now, that is very competitive. It helps that Apple is the 800 pound gorilla, but I would not be surprised if they did take a major stake in TSMC to cement their position as most-favored customer.
Quote: “I just replaced my mid-2010 MacBook Pro”
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You mean the one that you (in a previous post) said had been lost in the alleged fire that burned down your house?
Reference: https://www.cringely.com/2017/10/13/i-have-no-boils/
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You wrote in 2017: “We left with what clothes we could grab. I forgot my computer. I’m still blind and awaiting surgery so Mary Alyce drove one car and we left the other to burn.”
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Then, in your next post: https://www.cringely.com/2017/10/30/weve-reached-cloud-computing-tipping-point/
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You wrote: “The past couple weeks have been a huge adventure for my family and me as we ran from the Santa Rosa fires. We spent the first week on the Mendocino coast where there are no computer stores. You can get a computer fixed, but can’t buy a new one in Gualala, Mendocino, or Ft. Bragg. So I bought an ancient IBM ThinkPad from MacDaddy Computer Repair only to learn that it wouldn’t produce text I could read. Hence the delay in filing this column”
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So that’s TWO posts in which you said your computer was burned in the fire.
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However, in 2019 you wrote this: https://www.cringely.com/2019/06/07/the-future-of-television/
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“Given my relatively slow technology assimilation (my present notebook is a MacBook Pro from 2010)”
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And of course, in this article you wrote:
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“I just replaced my mid-2010 MacBook Pro with a second-hand mid-2014 MacBook Air”
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So… that’s TWO articles in which you said that your 2010 MacBook Pro was lost in the fire in 2017, and TWO articles in which you said that you still were using it (up until 2020, at least).
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So which is it? Were you lying then or are you lying now?
Incidentally, I figured out in the last post that “K i c k s t a r t e r” is now one of the “banned words” in the mysterious list that will cause your post to fail. I replaced it with “KS” and it posted fine.
There is a very slight hint, on 28 Jan 2019 — sparingly phrased, and I don’t think that was accidental — that “the fire cost us both the playroom/factory and our inventory of completed Mineservers.” This reference is, by itself, incomplete, but one might infer “the rest of the house didn’t burn,” or “the MacBook was in another part of the house from the main area where all other computing projects happened,” or similar. To me it smacks of slyly crafted pseudo-fiction, toeing a path between dissatisfied patrons + insurance assessors.
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Why not just accept this “one or two small(er) rooms burned down” narrative? Because Cringe’s initial Job 1:16 homage pretty heavily implied that the entire house was kaput, lost to a disastrous conflagration. Because Cringe repeatedly makes reference to “we left everything to burn,” “the [other car] burned too,” “I had to get a replacement laptop, waaah.” Because, if any blog-scribbles are to be believed, Cringe + family have since moved to a different house in the same approximate suburban region (reference 16 July 2018).
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And — most damningly — because CRINGE HAS MELODRAMATICALLY PLAYED UP THE OH-MY-WORKSHOP-CAUGHT-FIRE CARD BEFORE. In November 2015. When his laser cutter sparked and poofed and smoked for all of ninety seconds. Prompting the vendor (an ex-homeless guy “whose 3D maker business was funded by a stealth investor,” hmm) to drive out to Santa Rosa with a replacement part.
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I’m not as twisted up about this as I probably sound. But it’s all so much obvious, exploitative double-speak. Hell, maybe I should be an insurance assessor.
The thing is, if you look at the fire maps, the fire didn’t actually come anywhere near his house. I don’t doubt that the photo he posted was real — the fire was indeed off in that direction — and I don’t doubt that he had to evacuate — everyone around there did — but I do strongly doubt that anything of his burned.
I have long wondered who the ‘Omer’ user was — he/she was the original entity to notice + point out the MacBook inconsistency (comment under 2019 June 07, comment timestamp 10 June 12:55) — there are a few others (‘Frank,’ posting under 2017 Nov 17 entry, and ‘Bear Balancing On A Ball,’ posting under 2017 Oct 30, possibly same user as ‘People Who Live In Glass Houses’) who seem to have been sniffing around some offstage deception long before this ‘blog’ blew up. Lots of telltale language about “vague carefully-selected word usage” and “misdirection” in their years-ago commentary. It is thought-provoking.
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For those who don’t grasp why the MacBook is such a big deal: Cringe wrote a (characteristically) big sweeping melodramatic woe-is-me screed, with Old Testament references, about how he, blind, had to flee his shortly-incendiary house, with his family, having only a moment’s notice to grab essentials and one car, leaving “the other car” to burn, and “the Mineservers” to burn, and, at minimum, leaving his 7-yr-old Mac laptop at home, presumably to burn with the other possessions. He tacked a blurry orange-tinted residential photo onto said narrative. He went on, bemoaning his secondhand ThinkPad replacement from Mendocino, which didn’t suit his still-impaired vision. He then let slip, ~21 months later, that, uhh, he was still using the 7-yr-old Mac. This has direct bearing on his house-burned, computers-burned, car-burned alibi, which might or might not constitute crowdfunding fraud, insurance fraud, or similar malfeasance. It’s also just a dumb thing to lie about, purely for the sake of appearing (even more) downtrodden and blameless.
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Lastly: the K—S—— word block is brand new — < 27 days old — it was allowed back on 03 June 2020. This means that Cringe is only posting about his crowdfunding effort here, not on the project page itself, and, further, he (or his blog service) is blocking the K—S—— phrase on this, the only location where relevant commentary exists. I point this out because it marks a quiet ongoing cover-up, minimize, sanitize campaign.
Oh, and just in case anyone asks: “How do we know Bob’s computer that he said he ‘lost’ in 2017 was a 2010 Macbook Pro? Maybe he picked up a used one after the fire?” No, Bob was very specific about the fact that this was his computer.
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In 2016 he wrote: https://www.cringely.com/2016/10/31/heck-happened-apple/
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“I’m writing this on a mid-2010 non-Retina 13-inch MacBook Pro I bought six years ago last June. Yes, over time I increased the memory to from four to 16 gigs, took the hard drive up from 240 gigs to a terabyte Fusion drive, replaced both the battery and the keyboard when they wore out, but that still puts me only about $1600 into this device with which I have so far generated well over $1 million in revenue. I have no plans to replace it.”
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Of course, one does wonder how, if he generated “well over $1 million in revenue” from typing on his laptop, he ran out of money to ship Mineservers after only spending (as he claimed) “$90,000” in total on the project (less the $35,000 or so from the KS income, of course)
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But that’s another story.
I thought I remembered something about that old Mac being lost.
Jeremy, the one true thing Cringely is likely saying is his problems collecting insurance.
The insurance company is aware to some extent of Cringely’s lies. I wonder if he made a claim for a burnt laptop to go along with his nonexistent MineServers.
Cringelys disclaimer in bold at the end of the article can be a truth hiding other more uncomfortable truths. The problem is the quality of Cringely work and the misdirection and avoidance and lies. I don’t personally agree with the American idea of unqualified “free speech” or Darwinian sucker beware “market forces”.
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Frauds can and do occur without the suspect themselves having a direct or indirect interest. If we wind back to Cringely IBM “scoop” and how the media dropped him like a hot rock the reason was simple: They cannot afford to print swaggering gossip and rumour because their reputation and international reputation matters. In some countries this brings up questions about fitness to control a newspaper or television station, or begins attracting the interest of financial sector regulators. Journalists do things like due diligence. I’m not sure how the last email of a long dead man matters. (Perhaps not just the last but the first and last i.e. only email he ever received.) Note Cringely doesn’t claim to have emails from Morris Chan, the founder of TSMC, or Dr C. C. Wei, the current CEO of TSMC who also holds a genuine PhD. At their level the first question their staff would ask is “Who is Robert X. Cringely” and any communication would be filtered through both accountants and lawyers and security staff. But then Jobs had a reputation for lying and betrayal so cutting corners to fuel his ego wasn’t out of place.
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Speaking as an escort I have had clients who are “notable public figures” and clients who have permanent 24/7 security (Ex British SAS preferred not American because they don’t want “trigger happy with no experience”. Their words not mine.) Men do let their guard down and dodge their security but then they’re visiting me not a random unknown unknown. Clients also always initiate a call. I never call them. It’s not a good idea for lots of reasons plus I don’t have to.
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When was the last time the CEO of Seimens or Mitsubishi emailed Cringely out of the blue? When was the last time Cringely attended an event and the publicity department mobbed him?
Excellent analysis. Why don’t you post more often, dude? Not enough content in my opinion…
“Why don’t you post more often, dude?”
He’s probably too busy working on those Mineservers.
Apple has had the unification of the MacOS and iOS ecosystems on the roadmap since the beginning, it’s all in Steve’s master plan, they were just waiting for ARM to get good enough to handle the demands of the desktop, or Intel to finally come up with a useful mobile chip solution. It was always going to go this way. Eventually everything will be in the Mac Mini format. Add a iSlice on the back of your monitor for an All-in-One; add an iDisk slice to the top of your iMac for expanded storage; an iHub for connectivity, etc.
Apple buying TSMC makes a lot of sense on a lot of levels, although it may not be an outright acquisition, at least at first. TSMC has announced plans to build a fab in Phoenix, right alongside Intel and a number of other chip makers, in order to diversify their manufacturing base outside of Asia. It will be a 5-Nano fab initially. Expect Apple to invest in it, because Apple, too, has a growing presence in Phoenix, not least of which are the engineers currently working alongside Intel. Investing in the new TSMC fab will give Apple a leg up in packaging design for their future even more heavily customized ARM CPU and support chips. And it will help TSMC get the fab built quicker and cheaper (to them). The PRC is stepping up their activities towards Taiwan, and Asia watchers expect something to happen in the next year or two. TSMC needs a U.S. base, and the Phoenix fab will be able to completely replace all of their other fabs in one facility, should, or rather when, the need arises. Investing with TSMC in the new Phoenix fab will give Apple their big foot in the door, and possibly even provide a new revenue stream selling Apple-designed chips to other TSMC customers. Did somebody mention growth?
“Apple has had the unification of the MacOS and iOS ecosystems on the roadmap since the beginning, it’s all in Steve’s master plan, they were just waiting for ARM to get good enough to handle the demands of the desktop”
What evidence are you basing this on? Apple has consistently said, year after year, they are not merging iOS and macOS.
Does anyone commenting here realize that Taiwan is sovereign from China/Beijing? LOL
“Does anyone commenting here realize that Taiwan is sovereign from China/Beijing?”
I gather that depends on which side of the Taiwan Strait you’re on.
That was where my comment was going to start.
I think Cringely is roughly anticipating where Apple will go next.
The problem is China and whether China will let Apple buy Taiwanese TMC.
I can’t scratch the surface of the political implications of Apple over the next 5 years – but, China will play as big a role as much as the US.
The scary thing facing everyone on this planet is China. I am so grateful I am not a Chinese citizen living in China.
This is purely a political issue. Within the context of our entire world, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, etc are good things. China is a very, very bad thing.
This observation happens to dovetail with a longtime professional research topic of mine — TSMC currently produces something like 42% to 63% of all consumer-grade chipsets + motherboards (more, if you count TSMC-allied offshore facilities), making it a huge supply-chain security risk. It would not be surprising for Big Fruit to capitalize on same, COGS-wise, but, ugh, I’m not optimistic regarding the future of ‘Apple-proprietary cables’ or ‘Apple-proprietary hardware crypto’ if something like this does come to pass.
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Also: that final ‘investing in the new TSMC fab’ paragraph feels like bet-hedging so as to claim ‘prediction was right’ under all contingent futures.
Cringely needs to keep out of politics and areas which aren’t his expertise. I’m coming to the conclusion Cringely is a scumbag and beginning to wonder why I didn’t see it before.
Just dropping by to thank our gracious host for the steady entertainment and the free soapboxes, they’re getting harder and harder to come by these days.
ROFL. I really needed a laugh this morning and thanks for providing some much needed entertainment. There is a snow ball’s chance in hell that Apple can buy TSMC nor will TSMC be bought by Apple. I am guessing you never worked or know anyone in the semiconductor businesses. TSMC got it’s start because the Taiwan gov knew that it will help the country’s economy if they can develop semiconductor manufacturing capability. The gov’s bet paid off and here we are today. TSMC is Taiwan’s pride and joy. Every Taiwan’s tier 1 university grads wants to work for TSMC. Despite the crappy WLB, the pay and stock benefit will set them up for life. I doubt the Taiwan gov would allow a foreign entity like Apple to take over. Also it is not cost effective for Apple to buy semiconductor manufacturing company. This is because the fab only has one customer, Apple. I doubt Cook is that dumb not to see unless they want to sell CPUs outside of Apple, it is not cost effective even if they have money to burn.
I agree with a lot of what you say. I specifically agree that the Taiwan government would have an opinion regarding Apple purchasing TSMC – but, the Taiwanese government absolutely will not base that opinion on a low-brow nationalistic feeling about TSMC. There is absolutely a bigger multi-national aspect that would be in play.
And I agree with your point that Apple buying a fab is in and of itself not particularly a logical thing to do. The important issue is definitely going to be global-supply-chain related.
I will agree with you that Taiwanese students feel very connected to their country and its businesses. But the Taiwanese people I know understand that Taiwan is in the middle of a very complex global dynamic.
@Ben
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Spot on. Anyone who is aware of the basic industry issues and Taiwanese politics and economics not to mention the geo-political-security issues knows Cringely is talking out of his ass. Taiwan allowing TSMC to be taken over would be akin to “selling off the family silver”. I can heartily recommend Taiwan not go there. All they have to do is look at UK mismanagement and the destruction of companies like ICI, GKN, Marconi, ICL, not to mention nonsense by ARM and Dyson and finance sector milking of utilities. Neither France (national economic strategy) nor Germany (family ownership structures) would allow it. Japan would politely say “take a hike” and supply chains would wither away like Scotch mist as fulfilling traditional obligations would become “difficult”.
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I also disagree with Cringelys nonsense about Apple becoming a bank. Yes, a company with a lot of spare cash places their funds in a variety of investment vehicles, or like a lot of Japanese companies set up a “bank” but to be a proper bank attracts regulators including competition and financial regulators, and given the current EU action against Apple’s store and Apple’s naively dumb defence you can be assured that absolutely nobody in Apple has the first single clue about banking therefore the idea has never crossed their mind. If the idea of creating a bank as crossed their mind they are so lacking in competence and due diligence the world of hurt Apple would enter if they acted on Cringely’s handwaving would make the implosion of ego a sight to behold. And no a branded credit card is not a bank. This is like calling Beyonce or Victoria Beckham fashion designers or Branson an innovator.
I’m amazed people think this is a good article. There isn’t even a slight rumor or hint that apple would do this. You might as well say apple will buy a grocery chain, or apple will buy a brewery.
It’s all just pulled out of cringely’s backside. Utter waste of time. Idiot.
There’s absolutely no reason for Apple to buy TSMC. They own their own chip designs, and can contract the manufacturing out to whoever can manufacture them efficiently.
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It’s just as dumb as if someone in, say, 2005, wrote an article that predicted that after years of Apple manufacturing their computers at Foxconn, that Apple’s next move surely would be to buy Foxconn!
Cringely says he likes writing zero-day opinion columns. How better than a wild assed guess. Speaking of WAGs I’m carrying on with lockdown protocols especially as safety is breaking down due to idiot politicians sending confused signals and there is no effective test, track, and isolate regime in place yet. Although the Netherlands and Japan are opening up their hostess industries I’m not convinced it’s a good idea yet. I could impose intimacy restrictions along with implementing a more robust cleaning and ventilation protocol as well as age, employment, and social risk analysis but it’s a scary prospect without more data. Now imagine you’re Tim Cook having to keep a sense of his own direction and field nonsense from all quarters. I cannot imagine anyone serious giving Cringely a nanosecond of attention.
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In between following tech news and filling time watching motherboard repair videos I’ve been investing in whatI need to do to create a five star experience for clients. Among all the escorts I know I’m aiming for a unique experience and I learned my lesson not to give anything away. From the comments I’ve received this past week alone it’s exactly what clients want to experience so satisfied this is among one of my better decsions. Best of all clients will get this added value without me raising prices. Why? Well it kind of clicked that tech is a sucessful industry in a deflationary market and has been for some decades now and I’ve never had or felt the need to fight for new clients. I can also leverage experience with games design and my own skillsets which makes up for other escorts who have warmer personal skills or curated instagrams. I guess this is what people today call “pivoting”. Where’s Cringely on any of this? I’m really not seeing it.
So you’re saying you’re not serious . . .
@Gnarfle
I have no idea what you’re saying. I just find plans and present situation a stress so just venting really plus bored. It’s not the world’s best combination. Some of my clients must feel the same from the feedback I’ve been receiving and the odd gift they’ve lashed out on. My branding is clear and I attract clients with similar tastes so almost anything from the top suppliers in this space of glamorous and surprisingly affordable at second glance cannot fail to please. On the whole they’ve been very good with pandemic protocol which naively or otherwise I think is very good of them.
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Find what you’re good at and stuck with it. This doesn’t mean you cannot find a different perspective or different ways of working or different emotional channels or creative expression.
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This week I’ve been working on one room so it’s designed not slung together. It has to be a usable space but also adapt as a film set. Not only do you need to work with framing but the flow and light. There’s a lot clients don’t notice but clients also miss nothing. If you are in doubt watch the entire first scene of “Eyes Wide Shut”, or the more obviously staged Unreal engine tech demo. It’s also worth studying Hitchcock. If people think point of view doesn’t matter compare historical US television default focal lengths with UK focal lengths but also examine the background scenes. Also notice a movie like the Bourne Identity could be filmed for less than £2.5 million once you extract the costs of big movies such as lighting crew and stunts. How big a set do you need? At least one movie has almost entirely been shot in a box. Some of the great photographers took amazing pictures with nothing more than two planks and a chair as props.
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My clients usually gift me the obvious which is fabulous. There’s also a million other things clients don’t conciously focus on which I’ve been busying myself with. Those details which all add up. I’m not going to say what I’ve been sourcing because it will ruin the surprise and I know from past experience whenever I do mention anything online it can and has sold out in the past.
I cannot imagine anyone serious giving Cringely a nanosecond of attention.
There are a few people who are serious. Roger is serious about keeping the Mineserver fiasco in everyone’s mind, since Cringely refuses to address it. I guess I’m serious about keeping track of Cringely’s many lies over the years, since they form a pattern and it’s fascinating to unravel it all. It’s a weird obsession to have, and I freely admit it, but here we are.
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Not sure if trashtalk is entirely serious. She will bring up serious subjects but then dovetail right into the strangest self-promotion possible (ie, self-promotion without any links or clues to actually find out anything more about her, or support her in any way)
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We’re an odd bunch, to be sure. Cringely does have a strange hold on people.
Oliver Stone movie Talk Radio with Alec Baldwin comes to mind
I’m usually serious with serious subjects. I have a problem navigating job titles and the peanut gallery which may explain some of the odder stuff. I like fun and interesting company and some of you guys are clearly intelligent and informed and I find this attractive. It’s fairly rare I get the chance to stretch braincells or share interests with people who have compatible interests not to mention a complete pain being an autodidact. This is not to say there aren’t moments but unless it’s a passion or a job most people don’t have time for this. Neither do I tbh as the excitement has gone. Everything has just become too corporate with all its faults and failings. Now there are voices out there making very astute comments on technology and content and the more technocratic issues of public policy and so forth but they’re very much marginalised by the loudest voices with the biggest stick. Things will change again I’m sure but there’s a lot of funk and angst in the way.
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You guys should see my email tray now clients are getting demob fever. As try as I might touch on movie direction and editing things while I’m working on improved content clients can’t see much beyond me cacooned in glamourous lingerie and kissing me passionately. Work, huh?
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I’ll give a shoutout to “Glen and Friends” and “Adamant IT” on youtube. They’ve been keeping me sane during lockdown. Like, who honestly likes or trusts a single thing Peter Theil says? Give me real and honest people every time.
Let’s digress back to Jeff Bezos can’t lose!
https://www.amazon.com/Southern-Ag-Liquid-Copper-Fungicide/dp/B004QJ1LWM/ref=sr_1_3?crid=L7UHFPYD0CPJ&dchild=1&keywords=southern%2Bag%2B029030%2Bliquid%2B32oz%2Bcopper%2Bfungicide&qid=1594202035&sprefix=Southern%2BAg%2B029030%2Caps%2C351&sr=8-3&th=1
Does anyone else see this Amazon page the same as I do?
It is allegedly for a liquid copper fungicide. And yet, some of the customer questions are about underwear. And the customer reviews are about nail polish. Is this a corrupted database or an SQL injection? Is it a design problem or a launch problem? Or had AWS become self-aware and developed a sense of humor?
Sorry SkyNet! Only the BEST self-aware networks get to take over the world!
I noticed a few reviews on Amazon and Ebay where the reviews were for the same product or likely from a different supplier than what is displayed but nothing like this. I’ve also noticed an increase in suppliers with 99 point something percent feedback and their delivery is extremely unreliable. Those who advertise as being based in the UK are likely based abroad and their English is extremely poor. Since the financial crash things haven’t been the same. The availability and selection of goods has plummeted and the number of spivs has gone up. I’ve been tracking this since the crash and there is definately a problem not only with Amazon or Ebay but the market. Having had access in the past to confidential market data and politicians communications and how this diverges from the offical line or publicly stated reasons anyone who says there isn’t a problem is lying. Corrupted indexes and office politics and marketing are a real pain especially when tripping over each other.
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As for the reviews afterthe link I’ve looked into using gel nails and not sure they are worth the bother. Where you gain in speed of application and hard wearing qualities for a curated instagram life which can hit the swimming pool in ten minutes you lose somewhere else. No client has gibbered at me that I must wear gel nails if men even know what gel nails are. I find most clients don’t think that deeply beyond “Ooh,shiny!”
@Reimer
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Sorry, it doesn’t make any sense. Apple design chips but manufacturing is a completely different business. TSMC is a silicon fab used by loads of semi companies that will walk away the next day as their IP would be exposed. Also there’s no margin in Silicon, as the 40% you need making is simply to cover costs and guarantee massive future investments. So Apple will design their chips and stay 100% fabless.
Exactly.
As for Slashdot the US-centric flag waving and Apple worshipping has reports Apple investing $1 Billion in Foxconn to build a factory in India away from Chinese influence. Another way of looking at this is Foxconn used Apples money to extend the Chinese empire in India. That’s quite a deal in the middle of human rights and international law abuses. No wonder the Russian feel sore.
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Personally I find the America First thing on top of a country with it’s ape like “USA! USA! USA!” attitudeand all therest to be unpleasant. I also dislike everythign being a near constant advertising for merchandise and constant backslapping of their pals who arein on the game.Do I careabout Apple. No not a lot. Do I want to hear about Apple? Little to nothing about apple interests me. Apple don’t innovate in ways which catch my attention and they are corporate slime. Yestheworld is more boring with excitement but honestly when was the last time Apple didor said anything remotely exciting? Yeah but Apple makes $$$? So what? Hoevermuch Apple or even the anodyne Tim Cook make I don’t care. There’s no net benefit in this for me or anyone alse I know..
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The only reason whyAppleand Microsoft andothers getaway with what they do is simply beause the US has weird monopoly laws and weird subsidy laws. It’s a nice dodge which has folled everyone and avoided legal action and sanctions for years.
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40% margins are about as unjustified as 40% battery drain per hour.
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If the US didn’t use the threat of military action and the sie of it’s economy to bully and abuse it’s position within the international finance systemthe dollar wouldn’t have much buying power.
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If the US keeps treating people badly the story will not end well.
Lol, russians don’t feel “sore” about China making moves in India, they are making their own moves there.
Russia is the main partner in OBOR anyway and pretty much the only nation China can count on not to fold when murrican push comes to shove. Sure, with US breaking apart in the realtime temptations might arise in chinese nomenklatura, but so far they seem to be able to control themselves.
Plus murrican example of hegemony quickly extinguishing itself is a _very_ recent one to ignore it.
Beijing is not “grabbing” Taiwan any more than Russia “grabbed” Crimea: both are just returning their land and people. US is circling the drain, and this talk is just an indication of murrican sheeple not understanding the new reality yet. Your political class understands it just fine, though, and this is why Trump will never “punish Iran” or “confront Russia” or whatever: he has no teeth to bite left. A carrier is burning as I write this, lol.
If I was Cook, I would buy TSMC, cut my losses and move out of the murrican shithole. Apple was not a national corporation for a while already, so it won’t be hard.
I personally think standards matter so not joining in nationalistic slanging matches or propoaganda wars. I know it’s difficult but this is where the focus should be.
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The accident on board the amphibious assault ship may be an extremely expensive mistake but I’m “meh,so what” about it. Fire suppression measures are being taken and I’m sure after examination and analysis procurement decisions or decisions to improve systems will take place.
Perhaps Apple makes more money by buying ARM or TSMC. However, the profit margins would drop coniderably. You came out of hibernation for that?
Everything you write is to criticize Microsoft and boost Apple. At one point you claimed the purchase of Nokia was money laundering which showed you didn’t understand tax laws or basic cause and effect.
I think the last time I took you seriously was when you said Apple was going to have IPods be the default distribution for movies at Blockbuster.
Softbank is under threat of hostile takeover and needs to raise cash so possibly selling ARM (with an IPO of ARM as a less likely possibility). Emotionally I want ARM to be taken back into British ownership but after the original owners sold out and Brexit I’m still smarting over what I see as a betrayal. Once that bond is lost for me at least it’s gone forever.
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I hope all these people who already have more money than anyone can spend in a lifetime ruining the world just so they can make more money get what’s coming to them.
The filter keeps deleting my posts.
Trying again via Google Docs:
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https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_gGGdDyk5jlLuH5goevcvV7Hy8u-5dGj_xejgCT1zaM/edit?usp=sharing
https://boards.straightdope.com/
Another thought is Taiwan would never give up TSMC because it’s national leverage and selling it off would weaken Taiwans independence.
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@GreenWyvern
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If you guys wanted to get together and discuss a new place then I’d be interested. I’m not personally interested in a content silo. The example you give is too generic and far too American centric for me to be interested. I personally have some things to deal with myself or would already have created my own place.
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(Filter kept being funny so some meaning lost in post.)
@GreenWyvern,
Thanks for the link. I checked out the Straight Dope forums, and they look interesting, but I’m not sure I’ll be signing up. Why not? I used to post a lot on forums (mostly at Ars Technica) but I find that they can be very time-consuming, and I’m trying not to waste more time than I have to. I’m also a bit wary of discussions these days getting hijacked by ignorant people (obviously that has always happened everywhere, but things feel a bit more… sensitive these days) Finally, I really don’t like the Discourse software. The UI is flat and weird, and sometimes messages get duplicated (once in a thread and once outside of it) and that bothers me.
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So why post here, on Cringely’s forums? It’s a good question, and I don’t have a clear answer. Originally I was a Cringely fan, and posted here just to comment on his articles, which used to be good (at least occasionally!) But then the whole saga with the fake Photoshopped F-104 and the fake satellite launch company broke something in me. Those egregious lies pulled me down the rabbit hole of the Mineserver debacle, and it became more and more clear that lying is a pattern that runs throughout all of Cringely’s life. That really bothers me on a deep level. Clearly it’s not important in the grand scheme of things (who cares about a washed-up computer columnist lying when the President of the US does it dozens of times a day and with fatal consequences?) but… well, there’s no but. That’s just how it is.
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Once, nearly two decades ago, I created my own forum, and in the heyday of forums they actually became modestly popular (nothing spectacular, but over 2,000 registered users and over 50 users with 1,000 posts or more who were active daily). The forum morphed and migrated and technically still exists, but traffic has dropped to a trickle. The same is true for a lot of forums– the Ars Technica forums used to produce whole pages of new threads each day and now some of them don’t even manage a post each day.
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The rise of Facebook and Twitter sucked the life and energy out of most forums. It’s a bit sad, but it is what it is.
Jeremy you should check out voat.
voat.co
It’s like the old BBS back 20 years ago with no censorship. But of course with open discussion be prepared to meet folks with different ideas. But ideas live and die by their own worth according to those who who encounter them.
John, I’ve heard about Voat, and I have no interest in joining a bunch of racist trolls who got banned from other platforms for being horrible people.
Also, I was quite active in the BBS scene at the time (their heyday was the mid-to-late 80’s, so really 30-35 years ago!) and there was no such thing as “no moderation”. Just like today, Sysops had to clamp down on trolls and abusers. A popular mod was a “CBV”, or “Call-back verification”, which would only let you into the BBS once you gave your real telephone number and the board called your modem back again. A friend of mine did CBVs manually and talked to everyone who wanted to be on his board in person.
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Of course I was very young back then (just a kid) so I didn’t really learn any lessons from the BBS days. Later, when I started my own web-based forum (first with iKonboard, then PHPBB, later using my own code) I was still young and thought that only “true freedom” could come with no moderation, “let sunlight be the best disinfectant”, “the best ideas will win” and all that. And so I just let people post whatever they wanted.
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Which was fun for about five minutes, then it immediately was ruined by the trolls. I learned pretty quickly that no moderation simply doesn’t work. It never will.
What happened to FormerTXIBMer ? If I can remember correctly in his last post he announced he was working on his own blog and he never showed up after that again. He was knowledgeable guy.
Tim Cook is celebrating Apples win in the European Courts over its multibillion Euro tax avoidance scheme.Tim Cook is also insulting the commissioner and European Union and european people by calling the case “political crap”. Apples lawyers said “The court has, quite rightly, followed the law and not any wider political objectives.”
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Reading through Apples lawyers website a cursory glance shows their policy positions on UN Sustainable Development Goals and calls for racial equality by supporting #BlackLivesMatter.
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Has Apple or its lawyers actually read through the treaties of the European Union and over-arching legal frameworks and actually understood what they mean? I will draw their attention both to mandatory membership of the external and independent European Court of Human Rights (as well as the European Court of Justice which rules over EU law). I will also draw their attention to fundamentals of European monopoly law and law on fraud as a beginning. It is notable the court basically agreed the “double Irish” was unlawful. If I were Commissioner Margrethe Vestager I’d want to look at this again and be asking some very very searching questions of the lawyers and their forensic and legal abilities. The case can still be appealed by the commission and and while Blookberg claim it is a vindication of Apple it their view is simply reasserting the court basically saying the court was not presented with the legal arguments or evidence enough to swing the udgement which is something else entirely. I don’t believe it is enough to say Apple did not benefit unfairly of an unlawful tax policy because they were Apple or even a large multinational with a well resourced tax and legal department. It was wrong and it is unfair and it is depriving the the people of revenues which pay for infrastructure and an economy which ultimately pays to maintain human rights and equality standards. They do not come for free.
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Whether or not the Commission does not appeal then Apple and their lawyers need to ask themselves, and Tim Cook especially, if they want to be the kind of people who find “legal loopholes” to increase their already huge and overvalued and harmful position which runs counter to their corporate “virtue signalling”. I would also ask questions of Ireland. Do they want to be a country known for shortterm economic advantage at the cost of the guiding principles of the EU? The world has enough two faced “I’m Alright Jacks” taking the mickey. Or is this “political crap” or simply good governance, ethics, and “courage” to do the right thing?
@John
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Sorry but any wesbite claiming “no censorship” and dogma free”ideas liveand die on their own merits” is so much bullshit. There is no such thing as “free speech” which is why I advise you to look up “qualified free speech” and both its legal foundations and the “political crap” (to quote Time Cook”). So called “free speech” is almost always driven by empathy free ignorant assholes with an agenda who have no impulse control. “Free speech” is peddled by a lot of quacks and hacks who rely on consieration reeshoot from the hip flannel and sophistry to force an agenda and grow one or more usually isolated and local bases as a political and informal organisational movement to influence politicians and media and public policy making. Itis not science or due process so don’t kid yourself in yourecho chamber that anything you are saying has any measurable value by default.
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The only reason I would hang around any oasis of “free speech” is to log evidence for use in criminal prosecution or tipping off human rights organisations.
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@Jeremy
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Your thoughts replicated mine. (I’ve been around long enough to seen things including various “golden ages” come and go.) I have played a role in the creation of the beginnings of new media outlets of which “The Conversation” and various Euro news websites etecetera are an example and work counter to some degree to the likes of Facebook et al. I also worked with a former big media editor to create a new site. This never got beyond the feasibility stage but other discussions lead to the creation of another news site by a journalist I had some dealings with.
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Apparently, US local media is dying and hardright “dark money” funded pseudo local websites are emerging to fill the power vacuum. It’s up to you but if you can ride with the creative impetus and discuss thinsg with others swimming in a similar pond to you there maybe opportunities. The hunger for interesting news people find relevant to them is there. It’s just a question of tapping into it.
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If you have a good idea someone will steal it. Believe me. If you don’t make it work others may. As long as you keep it fun and friendly and solve a problem you’ll have no problem growing. It’s also not always about the numbers. Sometimes it’s about the right people and influence and that’s not something Facebook gets.
@everyone
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Sorry for the multipost rants but oh my life I have a lot to get off my chest. I’m quite the not so closet armchair intellectual and political hound and have nowhere to vent since the rise of social media which I can’t get along with or anything online especially with the more amorous clients whose brains barely function about the “nice dress now get your knickers off” level. Yes, that’s been my day today.
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I highly doubt any clients of mine or anyone I know reads Cringely but I’m not risking overlap so can’t actually talk about what I want to talk about. Frustrating.
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While I’m here does anyone know of a Thunderbolt 2 or 3 ExpressCard/34 which exists and doesn’t cost stupid money?
https://www.amazon.com/Sonnet-ExpressCard-Thunderbolt-Adapter-Reader/dp/B0080MQJJ6
@trashtalk, no need to apologize, your thoughts are more interesting than the actual article. I’m disappointed by the Apple tax ruling as well. Ireland has long tried to boost their economy by offering big tax breaks to corporations, but the result has been a few rich people in Dublin who end up raising the housing costs for everyone else, and no infrastructure for anyone. As Britain self-destructs, perhaps Ireland will benefit enough to allow them to work towards a more equitable system.
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I’m all for capitalism and letting people make money from their ideas. It generates wealth and that can, in theory, benefit everyone. But countries need to make sure that corporations pay their fair share of taxes. If they don’t, they will end up a broken, diseased countries, with terrible governance, horrible education, and run by brain-dead greedy sociopathic vultures who do nothing but destroy and cause misery and death. I can think of a couple of examples.
@Jeremy
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Fair comments and same and pretty insightful. Credit where it’s due.
@Ronc
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Thanks Ron. I’ve seen that before. It’s a Thunderbold device which adds an Expresscard slot. I need an ExpressCard/34 to fit in my laptop which provides a Thunderbolt 2 or 3 port.
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ExpressCard is now a deprecated standard so very unlikely to have a Thunderbolt 2 or 3 adapter. I can live without one but the reason why I wanted one is ExpressCard exposes the PCIE bus and Thunderbolt 2+ provides enough bandwidth to run an eGPU. I have an eGPU adapter (EXP GDC Beast) but it’s a bit of a kludge and quite a lot of soldering work to create a better quality adapter lead so I can cut down on signal noise and tidy my external graphics card out of the way. It’s no big deal it would just be nice to have and save me having to buy a spare ExpressCard lead and a cable to adapt and a new and better soldering iron.
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I’ve forgotten the exact details and benchmarks but an eGPU even running at x1 or x2 is actually very usable if the data signal is one way. (This requires texture and other data to be adequately buffered by graphics card memory and for the graphics card to link to an external display rather than providing loopback for the laptop display.) It should also be good enough for using OpenCL which some of the newer content creation applications require. If I was into games I could play up to DX12/Vulcan games no sweat at very good framerates.
Voices of Kickstarter:
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“I’ve had two kids since pledging for this Kickstarter. My oldest is turning 3 in a few days. That’s how long it’s been. Maybe they will actually make this stuff by the time my girl is old enough to play Minecraft. Really wish they would give us back our money.”
And — poof — just like that, Kickstarter is back on the permitted words list. I’m not gonna dive too deeply into it, but, suffice to say, I do find the “keywords quietly blocked –> posters notice block –> keywords quietly unblocked” progression amusing. Whether via semi-automation, backstage human curator, or a temporary bug.
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Kickstarter, Kickstarter, Kickstarter. Say it three times into a mirror and he will appear.
Must be that “assistant” who is gainfully employed doing all the grunt work so a blog author that writes a new post every 60 days can have his mind free to dream of greater things.
My favorite part was when Cringely was posting a bunch of test posts (on a live site, on the most recent post!) to check to see if the threading was working again, and then got all mad at me for replying to them.
In 2011, I sent an email to Science Fiction author David Gerrold informing him that I had been waiting 17 years for the fifth book in the War Against the Chtorr series.
We agreed that raising children can lead to all sorts of compromises.
I just looked and there’s another email in which he announced that he would finish the series before the end of the Obama administration.
I recently became a Patreon of DG in the hopes that some basic income might allow him to complete the series.
What does he do?
He releases the first novel in what may be another series.
I’m concerned he will merge with the infinite before he completes the War Against the Chtorr.
Man up!
Maybe I should get a Kickstarter and Patreon account. That way with the right hype and flim-flam I could get an ExpressCard/34 to Thunderbolt convertor while other mugs are paying for it and sell some vicarious Youtube content on the side.
This article is a rather lengthy explanation of why it may be better to have a desktop computer for gaming, although it seems you’re aware of the trade-offs and can live with them, based on you’re previous post:
“Capable as it is at quickly moving data, Thunderbolt 3 puts a noticeable bottleneck on a GPU’s bandwidth.”
https://lifehacker.com/should-i-buy-an-external-graphics-card-if-my-laptop-can-1844405307
Yes, you’re correct Ron. I made a decision based on my needs and the money I had at the time. I used to have a dekstop with all the bells and whistles but it was growing old and was too large and became too noisy and was an expensive time sink. What I have with the right graphics card is good enough for me. I’d need to buy a very recent laptop to make a difference.
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Capping the bandwidth to x1 (which an ExpressCard/34 is limited to) isn’t actually that much of a problem. A native Thunderbolt 2+ solution is faster but makes no massive practical difference when compared to a PCIE x16 card. Ifyou don’twish to be CPU bound or graphic bound and the maximum framerate and lowest latency is required then yes go for a native (if available) or desktop solution.
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In my opinion most graphics engines (and the content theyprovide to fit these choices) isn’t very scaleable. This isn’t because it can’t be done (although that discussion can get quite technical at the engine/content/gameplay interface) but because those were the decisions they made. I don’t play games or write high performance software now so it’s not something I’m bothered with. It only crossed my mind to pull my eGPU out of the cupboard because I was thinking of toying with a Photoshop filter and later a movie editor called DaVinci Resolve which required OpenCL. I can get OpenCL working on my laptops internal graphics but it’s a real hassle installing the right version of drivers and libraries in the right order (or using Linux which is another set of headaches) and I can’t be bothered.
I can get away with some fairly simple content creation software for what I want to use it for. I do have other content in mind which requires more work but, seriously, nobody cares if I spend weeks planning a shoot or agonising over titles or telling a story or colour grading. Actually, that’s probably not true. It’s not that people don’t care it’s just not the primary reason for watching. Also once I’m happy with a final cut it makes no odds if I have to leave it to run overnight to produce the final version. As long as the final version is okay who cares what was used to produce it? Davinci Resolve is nice but I’m checking out Shotcut and Olive (possibly Kdenlive) as alternatives. As long as I can do the basics plus audio sync and colour grading and titles (even if I have to do titles in external software before importing and/or matting them in or whatever) I’m fairly happy. This sounds like a lot of workand it is. I’m likely to make no profit at all off the movies themselves for the time involved at my headline hourly rate. They will be mostly for my artistic satisfaction and advertising.
After mentioning Shotcut I thought I couldn’t leave things at that. I looked atsometitorials and had a play with it. Shotcut can do colour palettes. It’s buried under LUT(3D) in the menu. It also has basic white balance and colour adjustments. What colour palettes to use and why plus tutorials and reviews and how to make your own custom colour palette are available with a quick search. I downloaded a free pack of LUTs and tested these and they worked with no problems. Doing titles and graphics is also possible. For anything really fancy or complex I’d use external software. It also does noise reduction which I don’t have a big need for but is there if I need it. The free version of Davinci Resolve lacks noise reduction which is the only thing which bugs me about it.
Shotcut is a small download and at first look does everything I need and is free and opensource. It also doesn’t need OpenCL so no need for an eGPU. After trying a few things I’m really impressed with it.
I’ve been using Shotcut and, while it sounds like you know what you’re doing far more than I, I have been happy with it. I’ve used Pinnacle Studio and other consumer-grade programs in the past and Shotcut is no better/worse in terms of interface and reliability, but totally wins based on price and support.
@roger
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I haven’t had the time nor quite frankly the energy to evaulate every product out there. I find Shotcut does what I want apart from its user interface is a bit rough and it lacks freehand masking. Its histograpms and scopes are usable but unwieldy. I’m not yet aware of the best way to create or copy a custom LUT without spending money. I have some free colourgrading LUTs for importing video but creative LUTs are tricky to obtain. GIMP with G’MIC or LUT Generator (iwltbap) supposedly creates LUTs (*.cube) files. For the level I want to work at this is all I need. I think what you say yourself or imply is if you have the skill as long as the features are there you don’t need a hugely expensive piece of software and more expensive won’t make my colour grading or anything else better in any case.
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If I sound like I know what I am doing it’s because I have been paying attention on and off for a few years to people who do know what they are doing.
I haven’t done a lot of video work over the years; I’ve mostly done still photos. I’m trying to learn more, however (just did a really crappy split screen video using two cameras). Shotcut does what I need (and know how to do) and probably a lot more. I agree that the user interface is rough but that’s to be expected, I think, given the price. The best thing about Shotcut is the massive amount of support — anything you want to do you can google and find plenty of tutorials. Oh, and it’s free.
@Roger
I haven’t done anything really serious with photography or video at all before now. I remember enough from photography tutorials and all the new tutorials and lectures on stuff I’ve been watching to be comfortable. That Shotcut is free certainly helps reduced the investment and emotional cost in getting the ball rolling. I spent a few days last week doing a Kubrick and going through framing and lighting and costume just to see if I could get things looking right. It’s like the third or fourth time I ran through things and it just seemed to click. I have a better idea of what I am doing now!
Another good free one is OBS but that’s more a streaming tool.You can also get a plug-in to turn it into a virtual camera. That’s really handy for replacing crappy webcam software with something which can do white balance and colour correction and artistic LUTs etc for web cased cam chat. It works with applications like Skype too so you can tweak your presentation to look less distracting and more professional. It even does green screen which can be pretty handy for broadcasts. It’s pretty impressive for free.
[…] • Apple hat den Kauf von Arm-Beteiligungen weitergegeben, aber der erfahrene Analyst Bob Cringely glaubt, dass das zukünftige Akquisitionsziel des Unternehmens TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) ist, das Unternehmen, das Apples ARM-Chips so brillant herstellt. „Erwarten Sie nach dem Wechsel zu ARM, dass Apple auch TSMC kauft.” […]
[…] • Apple has abandoned the acquisition of Arm’s shares, but senior analyst Bob Cringely believes the company’s future acquisition target is TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company), the company that brilliantly manufactures ARM chips. Apple. “After switching to ARM, expect Apple to buy TSMC as well.“ […]
The Chinese is too late in buying TSMC, because they have open another big plant in Arizona. Arizona state is partly paying the bill for the plant The reason are to be closer to Silicon Valley and the exploding Mexican manufactures of OEM computers. TSMC is transfer the knowledge and experience to the US in case China attack Taiwan. Apple might buy TSMC but highly unlikely because TSMC provide a service. Company like Apple, Microsoft and Amazon has a policy of have vendors for service. The only time they purchase anything is for the IP and user base. Is Apple really going to have ARM chip running Macbook pro and Mac line? Yes Is it going to be good on a MAC, Nope!
From my experience in the field from MS Surface Laptop is good for viewing the internet and using web mail. Anything like using Outlook and Excel crash the laptop.. Totally useless for gaming or graphic editing if that is you medium.
Many years ago, Robert mention how the Japanese dominated the FAX machine with low power grainy fax image with each model more stylist than the next but the technology is the same. Well this is Apple trapping all the smartphone makers in same standard of low power devices.
Great and nice content