Big technology companies have been recently coming under increased scrutiny from federal regulators. Several tech companies are reportedly under investigation, but this column is only about Amazon, which seems to be in regulatory crosshairs in part because President Trump doesn’t like Amazon founder and CEO Jeff Bezos, who also owns one of Trump’s least-favorite newspapers, the Washington Post. Ironically, Trump’s goal of breaking-up Amazon would only make Jeff Bezos at least $35 billion richer.
It’s simple: Amazon is worth a lot more in pieces than it is as a single company.
Bezos is no fool, so he knows this about his company. Maybe being already the richest man on the planet is enough for him. Whatever the reason, Bezos, for now, seems to want to keep Amazon in one piece.
Young industries tend to have young founders and CEOs — often people who have never worked anywhere else. They are often people who would not be considered for their jobs except, of course, they own the joint. So there’s a fair amount of juvenile behavior from tech CEOs who have yet to realize that it doesn’t always make financial sense to get your own way. There are many examples of tech businesses being run purely on a whim and sometimes those whims remain institutionalized even after the CEO’s departure. There’s plenty of such willful behavior at places like Facebook, Google, Twitter, and many others just as there used to be at companies now gone like Yahoo.
Jeff Bezos worked at several companies throughout his 20s and can’t be accused of lacking experience before founding Amazon. In fact, it’s his managerial skill that helped Amazon thrive over the years, especially on Wall Street. But even Bezos wants his way and would apparently prefer that Amazon remain in one piece whether that makes sense or not.
Consider Amazon in pieces. Founded in 1994, Amazon invented e-commerce and is today the undisputed giant in that field. Amazon Web Services invented, too, the cloud services industry starting with Web 2.0, and remains by far the biggest public cloud player. Amazon is also a substantial creator and distributor of video content and music (not the biggest but second or third in what is becoming a huge new industry). Amazon dominates eBook publishing with Kindle and audiobook publishing with Audible. Don’t forget that Amazon remains the world’s largest seller of printed books, too. Amazon has also built a huge shipping operation that could compete with FedEx and UPS if it chose to do so.
That’s at least five distinct Amazon businesses that would each be worth tens — some of them hundreds — of billions of dollars.
An activist hedge fund might see the profit opportunity in tearing Amazon apart and propose to do just that, except it won’t happen. Amazon is too large. With Amazon worth around $1.2 trillion, such a fund — like an Elliott Management, which is currently messing with Twitter — would have to buy 5.5 percent of Amazon for around $66 billion just to get Bezos’ attention. Elliott Management doesn’t have that kind of loot.
For exactly this same reason you won’t see any activist moves being made on Alphabet, Apple, or Microsoft, either. They are all literally too big to bust, which is what leaves it to the Feds and to the EU.
If there was an activist fund big enough to bully Amazon, here is how they’d explain it to their golf buddy investors. Think of this as a high concept TV or movie pitch meeting (yes, it really happens like this). Amazon isn’t just Amazon: an Amazon in pieces looks like a combination of Walmart (market cap today $350 billion), Microsoft (market cap today $1.42 trillion), half of a Netflix (market cap today of $193 billion, so $96 billion), Penguin Random House plus Barnes & Noble (market cap today of $2.5 billion — not even a rounding error in this calculation), a third of Spotify (market cap today or $29 billion, so $9 billion), and a tenth of a FedEx based on the number of operated aircraft (market cap today of $30 billion, so $3 billion). Add it all up and the total is $1.88 trillion, up from Amazon’s market cap today of $1.2 trillion.
Based on Bezos owning 11 percent of Amazon, the value of his shares under this scenario would increase from $132 billion to $206 billion for an increase of $74 billion.
You might argue that these numbers are wrong, especially the Microsoft contribution. But if you listen to recent Microsoft earnings calls and look at what analysts are writing about that company, most of Microsoft’s $1.42 trillion market cap seems to be attributed to Azure, their cloud offering, rather than to Windows or Office or hardware.
Even if you discount the Microsoft-equivalent share by a quarter down to $1.065 trillion, the dismembered value of Amazon still comes out to $1.52 trillion making Bezos $35 billion richer.
And remember, Bezos’ net worth is made of more than just Amazon. Forbes says he is worth a total of $143.4 billion as of this morning. Add $35 billion to that for a total of at least $178.4 billion.
So go ahead, DoJ, make his day.
Let’s say President Trump reads this column (or someone on Fox News mentions it, which is more likely) and decides not to make Bezos even richer. In that case, John Malone of Liberty Media could advise Bezos on ways to keep Amazon together yet gain much of that additional value through the use of tracking stocks. These are separately traded shares that are linked to the financial performance of specific Amazon divisions. Malone has used tracking stocks a lot to get Liberty’s market cap up and it works. Maybe it’s only 75 percent as efficient, but then it involves a lot less paperwork and investment banker fees.
If Amazon (not just Bezos) wanted to look bigger and perhaps borrow more money, they could pretty easily justify an extra $320 billion in virtual market cap for the company through this hack.
Yeah, but we’re going into a recession, isn’t that going to hurt Amazon along with every other business in America?
Based on these businesses at this time I’d say “no.” Jeff Bezos can’t lose.
And now Bezos wants to buyout AMC theaters?
AMC is cheap. A hobby for the most part, but it also gets Amazon Prime less resistance to getting their films into Oscar contention and wider distribution, while being small enough to not get a hit from regulators (that would stop Disney from owning its own theater chain in an instant, just like how car manufacturers don’t really own their retailers (Tesla being a funny exception).
The AMC is to 1) ride a failing industry back up from this bottom it is at due to the closures, and 2) allow for an efficient cross-promotion system that eventually drives more people to Amazon Prime. AMC is partly paid by the ticket sales, but for the blockbusters, it makes more from the concessions and from the trailer advertising. Only when a film has ‘legs’ (is playing for 3-10 weeks) do theaters really make money from it. Thus why college theaters and the like can get blockbusters 10 weeks later: at that point, most of the money goes to the theater rather than the studio.
So that trailer and advertising block is a pretty huge draw, all those dedicated eyeballs with nothing else to do in there except post on their phones that they’re about to see a film in one of his theaters – yet more advertising and that time, for free.
AMC by itself is suffering. AMC as a subsidiary of Amazon just becomes a great tool for Amazon’s branding – even a lossy period in the theaters is still a potential gain because of cross-team marketing.
2 things:
– Most US states prohibit direct sales of cars from car manufacturers to consumers and those that do allow car manufacturers tried to do it but could not do it profitably so they just gave up. Bob Lutz who served as top executive of all 3 our car manufacturers and BMW had a column in Car and Driver magazine and wrote about that.
– Movie studios are prohibited to own their own movie theaters – that was decided by the United States Supreme Court in antitrust case United States v. Paramount Pictures, Inc. – decided May 3, 1948 – link:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Paramount_Pictures,_Inc.
“Sound illegal? Under current legal precedent, it is. A 1948 Supreme Court ruling, United States v. Paramount Pictures, Inc., bars film studios from owning their own theaters in the name of antitrust. Yet in late November, the Justice Department’s antitrust chief, Makan Delrahim, announced his intention to terminate those rules, describing them as no longer needed. If that decision were to come to pass—there would be a two-year sunset period, Delrahim said—Amazon could begin to capitalize on AMC’s footprint in new ways.” https://fortune.com/2020/05/11/amazon-amc-theatres-acquisition-buyout/
So it seems elections in November will resolve that puzzle too. If Trumps wins he won’t allow his archenemy to get his wish likewise Democrats will be happy to oblige.
Typo above – should be Trump – this thing should be able to allow edit
@Mark – I can think of another of tech ” business” that was run purely on a whim
Instagram was run on a whim.
Maybe not any more.
oh snap!
I read all of this and kept waiting for the point and never seemed to find one. Who cares? Did you just want to flex your math? What a fairly boring and useless article. You’re better than this, Bob.
It shows that Trump is unable to think the problem all the way through.
You may want to click on some of the links in the article. I learned about “tracking stocks” and the fact that “nobody puts ketchup on a hot dog”. Admittedly, we already knew that Trump doesn’t read, but it’s interesting to see how “The Atlantic” can waste time and words obsessing over it.
I put ketchup on a hot dog.
My digestive tract has a bad reaction to mustard…
Try adding sauerkraut, the original kombucha
Baja-style dogs are the best….grilled & wrapped in bacon topped with chopped onion, jalpeño, pico de gallo, cilantro, queso fresco and mustard. Sprinkle with lime and choice of salsa (red or green or avocado). Sour cream or ketchup optional but not recommended. Yum!
I completely agree with you but it seems Bob is obsessed with rich people who have a lot of money because it seems he has none. All of this had been seen before – Bill Gates, Microsoft and Windows come to mind and what happened ? Today Windows is irrelevant and will probably move to Linux roots in the future, Microsoft is trying to make money elsewhere and Bill is just a philanthropist.
Jeff Bezos was just guy who was at the right place at the right time and had balls to go into debt a lot. Remember a time when there were rumors Amazon would go belly up. They still spend a huge amount of money and do not pay a dividend (not that there is something wrong with that just observation).
Same like with Microsoft and Windows another technology will come that will make them obsolete or more likely scenario is government will split them into many different companies and I think European Union will do it before our government.
Personally I think Jeff is privately dumb. To change beautiful young wife for 50+ plastic doll for me is like to trade in Porsche Turbo for Chevrolet Impala.
Some people can deduce the outcome on their own, some need to be spoon fed this information.
To be fair, you have to have a very high IQ to understand Robert X. Cringely. The logic is extremely subtle, and without a solid grasp of theoretical physics most of his intellectual acrobatics will go over a typical reader’s head. There’s also Cringely’s nihilistic outlook, which is deftly woven into his characterisation- his personal philosophy draws heavily from Narodnaya Volya literature, for instance. The readers understand this stuff; they have the intellectual capacity to truly appreciate the depths of these columns, to realise that they’re not just about technology – they say something deep about LIFE. As a consequence people who dislike Cringely columns truly ARE idiots- of course they wouldn’t appreciate, for instance, the logic in Cringely’s existential catchphrase “Wubba Lubba Dub Dub,” which itself is a cryptic reference to Turgenev’s Russian epic Fathers and Sons. I’m smirking right now just imagining one of those addlepated simpletons scratching their heads in confusion as Robert X. Cringely’s genius wit unfolds itself on their CRT monitors. What fools.. how I pity them. 😂
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And yes, by the way, i DO have a Robert X. Cringely tattoo. And no, you cannot see it. It’s for the ladies’ eyes only- and even then they have to demonstrate that they’re within 5 IQ points of my own (preferably lower) beforehand. Nothin personnel kid 😎
Perhaps your claims of superior intelligence would play better if you could spell correctly, use words in the correct context and were not so misogynistic regarding women’s intelligence.
lol
On the surface, it appears to be normal — a column about a tech company, that’s a change. But it’s filled with a bunch of fragments that don’t add up to anything. It’s like he threw 5 jigsaw puzzles in a bowl and is trying to make 1 puzzle out of them.
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This part in particular is pretty alarming about Cringely’s mental state:
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“If you listen to recent Microsoft earnings calls and look at what analysts are writing about that company, most of Microsoft’s $1.42 trillion market cap seems to be attributed to Azure, their cloud offering, rather than to Windows or Office or hardware.”
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It’s pretty clear Cringely isn’t listening. Nobody but an idiot would say “most” of Microsoft’s $1.42 market cap is “attributed to Azure.” It’s that Azure is a (relatively) new product for an old company. Investors think it’s important for that reason – how does Microsoft enter a market they do not dominate?
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This is maybe one of the most mind-numblingly dumb claims in any column I’ve seen since Cringely claimed Google telemarketers in a boiler room were cold calling him about his search engine position.
It’s funny — I typed more or less the same thing as Gran, but ultimately chose not to post my comment.
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In short, “This entry is dangerously naive, to the point of total disconnect. While it is still possible, with some elbow grease, to run a disconnected Windows instance, Office 2013/2016-ish onward has been tightly coupled with {cloud} {Azure} {O365} {ActivDir-Azure} for years. Even US Dept of Defense secure networks represent less than 0.4% of Microsoft licenses. Big Redmond doesn’t draw a crisp line between ‘on-premise software’ and ‘in-the-cloud software’ anymore, and that was very conscious, and intentional, and, from a certain viewpoint, cunning. Their balance sheets will ultimately reflect same.”
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I (think I) am seeing a shift in this blog — 2-3 years ago, rambling personal yarns gave way to “surf around for a trendy topic or catchphrase, include some way-back-when anecdote, or don’t, and, above all else, embed links for SEO ranking or similar monetization.” (Which makes Gran’s Google-boiler-room callback even funnier; we came up with that separately too.) Compare with a farcical-by-design product, Lars Eidnes’ AI-fueled Click-o-Tron (clickotron dot com), which synthesizes headlines + semi-gibberish article text in a ploy to bait readers. That site and this material are not so far apart anymore.
Amazon went from about $2,170 a share to about $1,850 a share at the crash. Since then it has climbed back to $2,400 per share while the market has stagnated at 13% below the peak. There are numerous companies that offer this and that for online sales and delivery, but there is no other company that offers the comprehensive breath of products that Amazon offers (and usually at the best price as well).. Even Alibaba doesn’t come close (at least in the US), mostly due to their abismal ordering system. In essence, Amazon online retail has no competitors, a fact driven home by the pandemic. That is why Jeff Bezos can’t lose.
Strictly speaking you should adjust market cap for net debt to get to Enterprise Value, which is how a VC would look at it.
How much of Apple’s market cap is its cash?
Jeff bezos may be good at building Amazon but is ruthless to his workers.
Also not smart to leave his beautiful, intelligent wife and mother of his children for a woman who broke her marriage and seduced him! He is not smart to be with a golddigger!
I’m working at Amazon. God bless him
I’m working at Amazon. God bless him he cried many job for people…
There’s no reason to believe that you would be able to touch Jeff at this juncture of the game because he has all the pieces and if he wanted to he could do just about anything that a person could imagine??????
I don’t always agree with Mr. Cringely, but I like his insight and he is 100% correct on this one. The same thing happened in the early 20th century with the break-up of many of the trusts. The ownership was just spread around and wealth for the owners, for example John D Rockerfeller, just increased (at least in the short run). The same thing probably would have happened to Microsoft if it would have been forced to break apart the operating and office business the late 90’s (this was before cloud and gaming). I guess it’s a unintended consequence of breaking up these large companies and trying to create more competition.
I really can’t be bothered to comment on this yet another US-centric nothingburger. As always it’s never what Cringely says but what he doesn’t say. Everything he leaves out of his citation free starfucking is much more revealing.
And yet . . .
Its not what you say that counts; its what You Don’t Say!
“I really can’t be bothered to comment on this yet another US-centric nothingburger.”
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I wish that was true. This comment was indeed worthless.
Here’s a post from over a year ago: trashtalk April 4, 2019 at 12:07 pm “Still to American-centric…”
https://www.cringely.com/2019/04/04/prediction-5-drones-become-pizza-to-the-neighborhood-pttn/
I guess Bob will always be American-centric.
IDK . . . residents of the NORTH AMERICAN continent and the SOUTH AMERICAN continent could also be considered AMERICANS. Therefore AMERICA-CENTRIC seems reasonable in this context.
McDonald’s and Burger King specialize in nothing burgers.
Ooooh. But the quote is US-centric.
My bad.
@everyone – I’m surprised that no one has commented on how Mark didn’t include any disclaimer about any personal holdings of AMZN stock (present, long, short, etc)
And all this time I thought it was Parker Lewis.
I’m so glad someone said this.
I’m fairly sure Cringely plagiarised this topic. There’s something which reads as too familiar about it only I can’t remember when or where.
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This topic died a death. Nobody seems willing to pump air into the balloon.
This article reads like something preserved in a bubble from 2017. The top story on Bloomberg right now, third paragraph:
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“Collapsing governments, famine, crushed economies and emboldened extremists are all among the darkest post-pandemic scenarios. Yet even less dramatic outlooks have a gloomy tinge, with political alliances crumbling and economies unlikely to rebound fast enough to blunt the impact of hundreds of millions of lost jobs. Seams that were opening before the virus emerged are tearing apart faster.”
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vs.
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“It’s simple: Amazon is worth a lot more in pieces than it is as a single company.”
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Like the actual press is painting gothic horrors and the blogger is twiddling his thumbs and navel-gazing about the true valuation of Amazon in the event it were broken into chunks.
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Really weird, this place. I’d give up all of this noodling to know what Mark does all day. Or has done all day for the last 10 years. Not Cringely, since he’s been telegraphing for years anything written under that name is bullshit, and that’s been shown repeatedly. But Mark. What does he actually do?
He’s been working on the Mineservers all along.
There’s a November 2019 feature in The Atlantic. I wouldn’t go all the way to say — I am not saying — ‘verbatim plagiarism’ — but that article’s final few paragraphs are not unlike this more-superficial writeup. Google shows a crop of first-week-of-May ‘Bezos antitrust’ and ‘Bezos vs Trump’ headlines which point more or less directly at same.
I, personally, learned a few things from that Atlantic piece — notably (what appears to be) governmental pressure favoring non-Amazon bidders in the multi-billion-dollar DoD JEDI (cloud) contract.
@granville
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Bloomberg is a known unreliable source and they admit their editorial policy and rewards system is more about maximising moving the market than actual truth.
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Cringely claims to have been educated on a scholarship at Merchant Taylors’ School, England. Courtesy of his being a combined services cadet he also boasts his pilot licence was obtained on the British taxpayer. He alsoclaims to have been a journalist in Northern Ireland and Bairut. Behind the sheen of a success he lived in a rented house. I suspect his office was rented and his red Thunderbird was likely hired as a one off for the day. The plastic clicky pen stamped with “Kitty’s Cathouse: Red Light District, Carson City, Nevada. Hot Wild Kinky Sex.” was a gift idly left in public view. Borrowed valour. A fake name whose life and career copied his father and older brothers. A fake PhD. Fired from Infoworld. Fired from PBS. Passed over by the big media when his lurid claims about IBM failed basic fact checking. A “ploughmans lunch” with reprocessed meat between the doorstops of his own internet start-up “Proton” and failed Mineserver project. Cringely’s life is a Kubrickian drama to rival Barry Lyndon. (Source: Wired and The Register.)
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I have no idea what Cringely does in his real life although agree it’s a mystery. Much like Instagrammers reality could be very boring.
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I’m normally fairly glam and it’s hard work compared to slouching. Clients normally see me wearing something eyecatching but sometimes after we finish an in-call I have changed into something more routine for going out later. It’s still good stuff but their faces tend to drop.
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@Questionable PhD.
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I may have skimmed the Atalantic article. I found the Amazon/JEDI contract American navel gazing thing very boring.
I like the comparison with Barry Lyndon. 🙂 The book by Thackery is even better than the film.
“Kitty’s Cathouse: Red Light District, Carson City, Nevada”
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LOL, I’m coming into the thread late and just caught this, but had to chuckle because it totally triggered a memory from many years ago (around mid-1980’s), of making a visit to a place called the “Kit-Kat Ranch” outside of Carson City, Nevada.
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It was after an all-nite gambling session in Reno in which I had done quite well at the blackjack tables and decided to treat myself and three of my college buddies from SDSU (two of them Indian exchange students from what was then known as Bombay) to a morning visit to the closest Nevada “ranch” we could find so as to finish spending the remainder of my winnings.
As I recall, we were the only customers and had the run of the place to ourselves….and were treated very well. That was my introduction to professional services.
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Couldn’t forget that name….the memory is clear of taking a dirt road for a mile or so off of Hwy 50 and there it was….a bright pink house surrounded by barbed wire with “Kit Kat Ranch” in lit-up lettering. Perfect vision of an oasis for four young guys driving thru the barren snow-tinged high country at about 8 in the morning after a night of drinking, gambling and partying.
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I know I’m off-topic again, but I swear it’s an absolutely 100% true story. Either @trashtalk made a lucky guess in brothel naming convention or perhaps she has more global knowledge of her related “industry” than I’ve given credit for. Either way, thanks for the memory!
Jeff Bezos could lose 99% of his wealth and still be a billionaire… while millions of people are starving and have no access to proper health care.
The system is broken.
We need corporations and individuals to pay reasonable taxes – which means no tax avoidance or tax havens, and 100% tax for individuals above a billion dollars. The money should be used to provide universal health care, good social services, and a universal basic income.
I just wrote a long reply to this and Mark’s cutting edge 2009 installation of wordpress ate it, and I don’t really want to go through every word to figure out which one he’s censored.
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Nutshell, I agree with you that the system is broken but the system won’t be fixed by a change to the tax code. All of those things you mention are part of the system.
The whole system isn’t just broken but rigged. It is a perfect storm of chancers, liars, and incompetence.
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I won’t get into Thackeray’s book versus Kubricks work but will say Kubricks films should be viewed as standalone pieces. Kubrick himself said his films spoke in a visual language not a written language and to appreciate them properly you needed to understand this. He also made a thing of his films needed to be felt. Mind you I’ve spent lockdown watching dozens of hours of documentaries and analysis on Kubrick. Speaking Thackeray I just remembered my school house was called Thackeray. The others being Coleridge, Tennyson, and Hallam.
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One problem I have too is working a picture and framing a picture. It’s really hard to do both at the same time not to mention lighting and staging, and even what story the picture is telling. Something as simple as the scene in Doctor Strangelove where General Buck Turgidson cavorts with his lover, Miss Scott, isn’t as easy as it looks if the world is conspiring against you. I know the angles and pull this one on clients sometimes. Capturing it on camera is a right pest though. Discussing it is even worse as men are so visual lust takes over or the mechanics of it bursts the bubble.
@trashtalk, I don’t know how you do it, but you’ve connected with me AGAIN by bringing up Kubrick….happens to be one of my favorite film-makers whom I have been a big fan of and watched and dug and explored myself over the years.
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I won’t ramble on here about him (although I’m sure we could have some interesting conversations) as it’s off-topic again, but if you’re a Kubrick fan there are two documentaries I’d like to recommend, if you haven’t seen them already (likely you have):
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“Filmworker” – about Kubrick’s assistant Leon Vitali (who was in Barry Lydon,” btw
“Room 237” – about 5 very interesting interpretations of the meaning behind “The Shining”
Far from a huge fan of Kubrick (Tarkovsky is more my speed. That speed is “crawl.”) but I enjoyed Jon Ronson’s film about his archives, Kubrick’s Boxes. Mainly because it was the first film I saw that managed to show what a filmmaker taking “notes” would look like — this was the equivalent of the private letters and files of a major author, all of these photographs Kubrick snapped of doorways and alleys and anything else that he felt inspired him or provided the raw material for a scene in a film. It taught me quite a lot about watching a film made by an auteur — in a way you could say it made me appreciate every other “serious” film I’ve seen much more.
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It also made me understand another proto-indie director’s output. When you think about the study that Kubrick put into each scene, coming up with however many photographs of (for instance) the type of hat he wanted for A Clockwork Orange — and then to have a film taken away from you must absolutely crush people of this artistic temperament. I can only compare it to taking away a half-finished novel from Dostoyevsky and not destroying it — that would be bad enough — but actually having someone else “finish” writing it.
Hmmm….”Stanley Kubrick’s Boxes.” Thanks for that reference @granville – looks like it’s free on Vimeo, I’ll have to watch it.
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Also found something on Prime Video called “Kubrick’s Odyssey”…..yet another documentary about all the “symbols and anecdotes and secret knowledge hidden in Kubrick’s films that tell a far different story than the films appear to be saying.” That seems a very common theme in alot of documentaries. True? Who knows? But I DO think we really did land on the moon, lol.
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On a side note….was once very briefly introduced to R. Lee Ermy (the great drill instructor from “Full Metal Jacket” as well as a bunch of other movies and TV shows) on a set in L.A. by a friend of a friend who did entertainment-industry software who we were picking up. Even in that brief moment I could tell he was a sweetheart of a man….
A lot of comments, I wonder if Cringely actually reads all of them or its just a cathartic exercise for the commenters. I DO have a question which has been rattling around my head for some time:
At what point will Amazon Web Services be deemed “critical national infrastructure” because of all the “traffic” they support, or do they? It stands to reason Amazon, Azure and Alphabet combined support not just entertainment but also a myriad of other services that the Covid-19 pandemic showed are fairly important to keeping the citizenry relatively calm and rational (a relative term). Just like the banking system being available to deliver money to ATM’s through thick and thin, now web services need the same level of reliability. Leaving it to the funding whims of the tenant in the Oval Office like we did with PPE’s and the pandemic response is obviously not the answer.
Bob, I think you are really smart and would like your take on this. Thanks
As things stand until human rights law has real teeth and is taken seriously in the UK at least almost anything with a chip in it is a threat to civil liberties. If it’s not theoretical attacks or whatis already know then even if it were safe the way government and various state agencies behave when shady careerists egos start performing throws lawfulness into doubt. Another issue is the lawfulness not only of governent ministers decisions but also of Whitehall in general. When there is a breakdown in moral fibre judicial reviews or even prosection become very necessary. In that respect there is a similarity with the current Whitehouse problem the US has. Executive decisions may be treated as law but are not law. This is an important detail and often overlooked. Now there is an issue of critical infrastructure but also access to the internet is effectively now a human right especially now when access to goods and services including the range of government and welfare and healthcare provision and equality is taken into account. What also of funding the media and the arts? There is at least one EU country where sex is considered a human right too and qualifying citizens can hire escorts on the government Euro. One suspects those complaining the most about this just hates meeting them coming in as they are on the way out. Eric Schmidt was caught with his mistress being paid for on the Google Dollar. I’ve had a suspicion more than once UK politicians have pulled similar stunts. The reason why I mention this is the world is more complex and power and need are not always distributed in conventional culturally dominantly perceived ways. Plus Euro-pushback against the Usian-monolith, as you do.
“The future ain’t what it used to be.” — Yogi Berra
Yeah, “it’s like déjà vu all over again!”
Lol, funds don`t jump on goog, amazon, faceberg or ms not because all four are cia operations.
People interested in actual retro tech stories might find this interesting, about the company that made SimCity and their foray into building actual simulations for industries.
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https://obscuritory.com/sim/when-simcity-got-serious/
Wow, lots of personal attacks against Bob…
That never would have happened 15 years ago. People would kept their comments to be focused on the content.
Sure, the tech industry has changed. Companies come and go- and come. Bob’s wanting to retire, has had some health issues, financial issues (like the rest of us) yet still, he has the knack to write eloquently about the industry. Give him a break!
If you disagree, harken back to the days when you were in school and write eloquently to refute or rebut his point of view. But for heaven’s sakes, keep the nasty vitriol out of it. Keep on trucking Mark!
Bob has thus far called his readers peasants, compared them to a pitchfork-wielding mob and to terrorist suicide bombers.
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In return people have — fairly — pointed out that he cheated a bunch of them and has been incomprehensibly evasive about giving them closure.
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And in the process found out that most of his CV is a lie.
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You people sure are gluttons for punishment sometimes.
“Wow, lots of personal attacks against Bob…”
Crookely took a lot of money from a bunch of people and not only gave them nothing in return but called them names and engaged in a bunch of victim-shaming. So, yeah, there are a bunch of people who are understandably upset with him.
Of course, once he did so, people started fact-checking his other claims, such as having lost his house in the California wildfires (he didn’t) and so on. That led to suspicion about everything else he says and spurred research into his El Dorado Space fairy tale which turns out to be almost certainly completely false but involves criminal activity (copyright infringement) on his part.
Given all this, some of his readers are skeptical of everything he writes and do not hesitate to call him out about inaccuracies and inconsistencies. All of this has indeed called his very character into question.
“he has the knack to write eloquently about the industry.”
That is entirely subjective and I — and many others, it seems — disagree completely. But your standards of eloquence may be different from mine.
“Give him a break!”
I already gave him my money; why should I give him anything more?
Wouldn’t it be great if Roger had some new material?
I mean, I’m considered Obsessive-Compulsive but Roger takes the cake.
Roger is just explaining to Sandy, a relative newcomer, the connection between Bob’s credibility and his previous actions, that bring it into question.
Thank you for sharing that with me.
But you don’t know for a fact that “Sandy” is a newcomer.
Identity is pretty fluid here.
Luke 16:27-31
(Stupid comments filtering playing up again.)
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@granville
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Interview: Fritz Handel From BushBuddy
https://hikinginfinland.com/2009/11/interview-fritz-handel-from-bushbuddy.html
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@People Who Live In Glass Houses Shouldn’t Throw Stones
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Thanks for the Kubrick documentary recommendations. I’ve watched Kubrick biographys and cinematography analysis but what Leon Vitali had to say stood out as being a missing component. I’m looking forward to watching it. The videos I like tend to be the ones which slow down and look at a component of Kubricks work rather than yappy videos of second tier critics. Cinematyler on youtube has done a very good multi-part analysis of Kubricks work and 2001 (and Clockwork Orange). While the Kubrick audio interviews are worthing listening to short of visiting the Kubrick archives myself the video on Vitali is one I’m looking forward to watching so thanks again for that.
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I think I kind of get where Kubrick was coming from. If you’re very intellectual and intuitive and have a lot going on so have multiple conversation topics going all at once and see how everything connects with everything else and discuss things in a multilayered circular way you have to manage this intensity. Kubricks genius was finding a way he could express this in the medium and also leave space for the audience to work it out themselves. As much as 2001 and Barry Lyndon are amzaing works, and I still have to grasp Eyes Wide Shut, I have to tentatively agree that Doctor Strangelove is Kubricks best work. But even this isn’t completely right as his work flowed from one into another.
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@Sandy
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Reply in flat form not threaded.
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If a topic wobbles off topic it’s fine if it’s interesting.
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Talk about stuff not each other.
(Cont.)
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I’ve given up writing on the technical issues of how Kubrick was inspired by classic art and staged and lit scenes and controlled focus of attention. There was something in that paragraph the filters didn’t like and I’m not playing hunt the dodgy word with an innocuous parapgraph.
@trashtalk: Well, your second paragraph to me was about as good of an analysis of the beauty of Kubrick as I’ve seen. I agree about the intense intellectual appeal of his work, and as well he always had a very visceral, or perhaps I should call it esthetic, pull on me from the way he combined that intensity along with the connection with the audience. His best example to my knowledge of what you described is what has to be one of my favorite scenes ever made: the bone being thrown up into the air to become a space ship in “2001.” Brilliant yet so moving that I still tear up when I see it.
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P.S. – Second favorite scene ever: “Forget it Jake, it’s Chinatown.” But I’m getting off topic for this forum again 🙂
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=avjdKTqiVvQ
Beautiful scene….still gives me goosebumbs. Been described as the “only 3 million year jump-cut in the history of cinema.” Especially well done considering it was with the technology of 50+ years ago.
And the music in it too, of course.
@People Who Live In Glass Houses
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I was discussing some issues with a police officer fairly recently. (Yes, escorts do use the police and use other services like everybody else and pay tax.) Because I was obsessing Kubrick this became part of the conversation. There were some things this police officer said in the context of his job which I noted. He never replied on the Kubrick thing but something he said made me thing on some level he got Kubrick or had the capacity to understand Kubrick. Intelligence and form and aesthetics are three seperate but interlocking factors. It’s complex because you have to understand context and history and psychology which is also layered with society and politics and neurology and development and perception.
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The star rise opening was the product of creativity and collaboration. (It’s not clear in the Vitala video but Kubrick sometimes made it up as he went along and changed his kind and used ideas from productions and actors.) It can be interpreted as symbolic of generic creation myths as well as Kubrick obsessing importality and a scientific atheism.
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The “dawn of man” jump cut is a classic. (The nuclear theme was removed from the movie narrative as following on too soon from Doctor Strangelove and nobody would get the nuclear weapons platforms were no longer present in the final “star child” scene. No references were made to the ship being nuclear propelled and whole scenes of humdrum routine maintence were cut from the final edit.)
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Personally I think the movie parallels are very relevant.
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I wouldn’t pay attention to any documentaries by conspiracy theorists. They overthink things and claim things which aren’t there or frame things in very unhelpful ways. Instead of discussing things as a thesis groudned in reality they twist things into their own fictions.
“Intelligence and form and aesthetics are three seperate but interlocking factors. It’s complex because you have to understand context and history and psychology which is also layered with society and politics and neurology and development and perception.”
Are you familiar Camille Paglia by any chance? (my favorite “street-smart feminist” and art/humanities pontificator for many years). She made similar observations about “2001” in one of the Kubrick documentaries I found on Vimeo, which was in line with her general theme of the need to understand and evaluate art in the context of the history and development of human society and its politics. If you’re not familiar with her writings and speeches, I recommend her books and talks.
Ouch. Those were some bad typos.
Wikifreaks cant loose either!!
https://b6.icdn.ru/z/zzzz121212/2/67571392JjW.jpg
Wikispooks have been around for years,they have produced Wikifreaks – The Dedman Files,everything from COVID -19 to the Russian invasion (which is really happening in the UK),spys,bent cops,mafia,IRA,KGB,and of course names that are traceable,a real MOB Obituary on how to bring the British Government down without being shot,arrested or deported!….in times like these…
https://wikispooks.com/wiki/Wikifreaks
Things have gone a bit quiet… I’ve been wondering why Cringely’s wikipedia page hasn’t been updated with all the latest facts and still has the look and feel of an overpolished CV. You would think Cringely was an in-demand journalist constantly churning out content for brand name media. Forbes has Cringely listed as former a contributor. Adam Smith’s Money World, coincidentally produced under a psuedonym by “George Goodman” (deceased 2014), no longer exists. Both Wired and the Wall Street Journal cover Cringely’s crash and burn after he made up facts about IBM and the closure of Money World so an updating and rewriting of the wiki page to remove the spin is perfectly possible.
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In the UK there was a similar kind of scandal surrounding the now disgraced Johann Hari who seems to be equally unemployable and drifting off into building hysterical conspiracy theories.
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If you’ll excuse the change of subject, apparently, today is International Whores Day. Small world.
Anybody can edit a wikipedia page. Why not do it yourself?
A quick perusal of the Cringely Wikipedia ‘talk’ page will show an ongoing debate concerning “what chronology and allegations deserve to be on here, versus those which are possibly ad hominem motivated” — Roger (or a user bearing Roger’s name) has been central in said exchanges, but the sphere of discussion obviously extends beyond just him.
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I have no formal stance on the matter — I guess I lean on the side of “disclose more, rather than less,” particularly where there are legitimate grounds for distrust — but, suffice to say, it’s hotly contested.
Edit — upon reviewing the MineServer Kickstarter page, I note that the three children are specifically referenced as “The Cringely Brothers.” Lacking any applicable legal practice, I might argue that this constitutes an intentional conflation of ‘personal brand’ with ‘professional brand.’ It’s sort of a questionable move, in hindsight.
@GreenWyvern
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I stopped editing wiki the day they required an account and published your IP address if you didn’t have one. Publishing an IP address is unlawful under current UK/EU law as it’s an identifier owned by the user and T&Cs don’t overule law. I also value my privacy and acutely aware that current UK law is that information published online becomes “fair game” for the media. Yes I could use a VPN but that’s another layer of trickery and I don’t especially want people to know what VPN I use. Cringely’s wiki also needs so much editing it’s a complete rewrite and outside my sphere of competence.
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I poured my energy into updating my own blog. It was about nothing special but the subject matter was coincidentally not unlike the pandemic content on one escorts blog I occasionally follow. It was good therapy writing it as well as being a relaxing learning exercise. Today’s “sex industry” internet is a pale shadow of the production values of 1970/1980’s porn magazines and movies, and the mainstream media is equally bad if you measure their modern ratings chasing and celebrity culture to a similar standard.
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A pair of 10 denier tights and a sexy dress for essential shopping this morning is the closest I’ve come to sex for months. Does the world really need pictures of me up a ladder in a tight top and short skirt doing my decorating or heaven forbid as a porn movie to Sarabande in D minor? Or rmaybe I should live dangerously? Anyone for Canon in D?
@Questionable_PhD
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Wikipedias general disclaimer is legally interesting. They are essentially claiming protection under US law. (Current case law is this provides zero protection from UK courts jurisdiction wherea significant portion of theaudience is UK based. They are also claiming “general carrier” status which in my opinion is a load of rubbish. This is currently getting a lot of attention in the US and has recently failed legal tests in the Australian courts pending appeal.
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Reading through the Cringely “talk” page I find the “editors” decisions questionable. There is a bias towards “reputation management” rather than weighing both the facts of the case and the legal standing of allegations both under US law and the law of other jurisdictions including the UK. In particular I would draw attention to Cringelys lack of due diligence having earlier claimed to have run his own start-up (Source: Wired) and his own claims to have successfully professionally advised start-ups. The T&C’s of Kickstarter on the surface would absolve Cringely from any obligations to fulfill the promise but would possibly fail other similar crodwfunding sites T&Cs and of course those T&Cs would have no force under UK law. While Cringely content has historically been predominently US focused his output has in the past been aimed abroad including the UK another other countries and occasionally Japan. I’m not skilled enough in the nuances of the issues or law to form a definitive opinion but believe there is justificable scope to both include the controversies on Wikipedia and consider both civil and criminal proceedings. Under UK law on balance I believe there has been a failure to fulfill the contract both in strict statutory terms and also softer contract law. Then there is the issue of the “slam dunk” insurance claim being denied and the curious claim by Cringely he had a “deal in the bag” and only needed another “angel investor” to step in so he could fulfill his obligations, There’s so many facts and withheld information and differences of legal opion and loopholes and caveats it really need a lawyer to look into it. Libel law is also another funny area all of its own. My guess is Cringely is “publicfigure” under both US and UK law so “fair comment” and (since changes to UK law) “honest comment” would apply. This will require careful parsing of both “opinion” and “fact”. There is also the issue of who bears liability. The wikipedia “general disclaimer” page itself ends with a note recommending professional advice should be sought. The wikipedia page on “fair comment” is worth reading. Having read a lot of court transcripts myself and also legal commentary and legal court submissions I wouldn’t be surprised if a definitive legal opinion weighed in at less than 50 pages.
Wikifreaks – Kieran Conway GSOC MI6
https://www.agescimarche.it/search/?q=kieran+conway
One month since this article was posted. Comments have dried up. Usually that’s when Cringely drops a new post to keep the “excitement” going.
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Maybe it’s time for a Mineserver update? 😉
Bob is hiding in his bunker same as Trump.
He will later tell that he was just inspecting it same as Trump.
He might even post in his new article picture of himself with Bible in front of the church same as Trump.
Our top story tonight . . .
Mineservers continue to remain unvailable. When will the drought end?
Jeff Lezos can’t booze?
Or he might dribble (excuse me I mean spit) out meaningless public non-sequiturs and ad hominem rhetoric that helps nothing, same as Pelosi.
Anonymous12 June 2020 at 17:15
WIKIFREAKS June 12, 2020 at 5:12 pm – Reply
The article below is removed exactly from Russian servers and is not intended in any way to be outlined furthermore it is an anti semitic site that should be banned.
The Reichsmarschall
http://www.fpp.co.uk/reviews/HGReviews.html
Albert Smith in The Irish Independent, Dublin, September 2, 1989. “THIS IS the best-researched biography and best biography in English of ‘the second man in the Third Reich.’ … Göring somehow obtained poison — Irving has done good detective work here — …
https://www.timesofisrael.com/british-holocaust-denier-david-irving-to-lead-nazi-death-camp-tour/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2006/feb/20/austria.thefarright
Allegations found on internet sites in April this year 2020, make it clear that former Irish Independent Newspaper sub editor Albert Smith misused his position of power politically to his own ends by celebrating,endorsing and approving the public sale of literature produced by self confessed convicted fascist David Irwing.It was uncovered by Russian Yandex hackers that it was Smiths own personal decision and plan of action,none other,acting as a sub editor of the Irish Independent newspaper,to oversee the publication of an article produced and written personally by himself that would promote the sale of Irwings published fascistic books collectively by describing them as a scholarship.
After the Guardian Newspaper announced David Irwings jail conviction in for production of anti semitic literature it was expected that the NUJ under its own rulings and regulations would automatically turn there own immediate attentions to any Newspapers or journalists that had in the past prior to Irwings conviction blatently collaberated with Irwing themselves in producing anti semitic publications for Newspapers.European laws thankfully prohibit actual production of any form of anti semitic articles in Newspapers for public sale, however despite the recent discovery by Russian Yandex hackers of the obvious illegal activity of the Irish Independent Newspaper the National union of journalists the (NUJ) have been found guilty of failing to take legal actions against known journalists within their organization that have seemingly committed anti semitic criminal offenses in the past when there is more than enough evidence to start summary proceedings against them.
The NUJ as an acting body does not identify the historically published anti semitic incident produced by the Irish Independent even though evidence of the newspaper article is still in existence and online today.At the time of Irwings convictions there where no NUJ investigations. Yandex sources indicate Albert Smith is at present 2020 payed a regular weekly income from the Irish Independent Newspaper which is a completely disgraceful situation.
wow
If a cheated man’s a loser
And a cheater never wins
And if beggars can’t be choosers
‘til they’re weak and wealthy men
And the old keep getting older
And the young must do the same
And it’s never getting better
Who’s to bless and who’s to blame?
All the cards are on the table
You done laid your money down
Don’t complain about your chances, boy
It’s the only game in town
And the meaning doesn’t matter
Nor the way you play the game
To the winner or the loser
Who’s to bless and who’s to blame?
Keep your hands above the table
And your backs against the wall
Toss your chips in with your chances, boy
Let ‘em lay the way they fall
For the moral doesn’t matter
Broken rules are all the same
To the broken or the breaker
Who’s to bless and who’s to blame?
Who’s to bless and who’s to blame?
Songwriters: Kris Kristofferson
And Bob Cringely can’t win.
Thanks! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gOFi8f2evE0
Wow, good ol’ Kris Kristofferson. Funny, after many years I just happened to look him up on Youtube the other day when I was reminded of the poignant scene in “Two-Lane Blacktop” (kind of a cult classic, but great especially if you’re a gearhead) in which they play his version of “Me and Bobby McGee” instead of the much more common Joplin version. I hadn’t realized he wrote it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvoWduX2pIc&list=RDjvoWduX2pIc&start_radio=1
https://news.bloomberglaw.com/tech-and-telecom-law/spacex-satellite-internet-plan-hits-ground-interference-from-dish
Forget it all its about software and of course chips,Listen up and learn Android runs on Linux..so Android dont need license to produce operating system.Apple on the dark side of it however requires the owner to be involved on licensing….get the idea OK?! by the time youve read this article here somewhere in Russia/North Korea/Cuba/China who knows where they have replicated British pound notes.Yep you guessed it the space age techno and chips have created printing machines that creat perfect counterfit,not only that the organizations making them have bought UK note testers,the notes are so perfect that they run right through the testing machines.The notes are dumped in Italian and Arab banks then destroyed as evidence…
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