A couple of years ago, in an obvious moment of poor judgement, the Kauffman Foundation placed this rag on its list of the top 50 economics blogs in America. So from time to time I feel compelled to write about economic issues and this Labor Day holiday in the U.S. provides a good excuse for doing so now. In a sense you could say I inherited this gig because my parents began their careers in the 1940s working for the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This first of two columns looks at employment numbers in the current recovery while the second will try to explain why the economy has been so resistant to recovery and what can be done about it.
You’ll see many news stories in the next few days based on a study from the National Employment Law Project detailing how many and what kinds of jobs were lost in the Great Recession and what kinds have come back in the current recovery. Cutting to the chase we lost eight million jobs, have recovered four million of those, but — here’s the problem — the recovered jobs on average pay a lot less than did the jobs that were lost, which is why the U.S. middle class is still hurting.
According to the study, mid-wage jobs such as construction trades, manufacturing, and office employees accounted for 60 percent of the employment drop during the recession but made up just 22 percent of the recovery through March 2012. So-called low-wage jobs like retail and food service workers made up 21 percent of the losses but 58 percent of the subsequent growth.
So while we may have regained 50 percent of the lost positions, we’ve regained significantly less than 50 percent of the lost personal income. With less income we have less to spend and spending is what expands economies.
Even more damning, if you look at the chart above that I’ve reproduced in a larger than usual size, is that fact that absolute numbers of both high wage and low wage job holders continued to grow through the decade following 9/11 that included two recessions, while numbers of mid-income earners dropped throughout with the exception of one positive blip in 2007.
No wonder the middle class has been decimated.
Previous recessions, we’re told, had more symmetric recoveries. Most of the jobs that were lost were eventually recovered and then some. So what makes this recession different from all the previous ones?
One solid argument might be that in practical terms the Great Recession isn’t really over, so the recovery isn’t either. If we just wait awhile things might get better.
In the current political debate over jobs, for example, there are those who argue staying the course (the Obama campaign) and those who argue for significant, if undefined, changes of course (the Romney campaign). Interestingly both campaigns feel a sense of efficacy — that full recovery can come.
Of course it can, but will it?
Our poster child for the current U.S. economy is Japan, which has managed not to fully recover from the recession following its bubble economy of the late 1980s — 25 years of economic stagnation made tolerable through deficit spending by the state. So it is very possible for the U.S. to not emerge from the current muck for decades, which is one of the reasons why so much capital sits uninvested on the sidelines earning one percent or less.
Why invest if growth is unlikely?
The jobs added in the current recovery are those that require very little capital. Expanding the third shift at McDonald’s costs a lot less than building a new semiconductor fab.
There are those who argue that many of the higher paying jobs that have not been regained are gone forever for structural reasons — technology improvements or changes in business culture or the global economy having made them no longer useful. That’s where all the secretaries have gone, we’re told: they were extravagant relics during the Clinton era only to be killed by the Bush economy and unnecessary in the Obama era. That’s how American manufacturing went to China, we’re told.
The unprecedented housing crash and excruciatingly slow recovery of the construction industry explains why there are only half as many construction jobs as there used to be, we’re told, but this too shall pass.
Or will it?
I’d argue that what we’ve mainly lost is some aspect of the entrepreneurial zeal of the 1990s. There’s something different about starting a business now compared to then. It’s still exciting, technological and market changes have in many ways made it even cheaper and easier to start new companies and bring innovative products to market, but we just aren’t getting as much wealth-building for our bucks.
Am I alone in feeling this way?
How could a time with higher tax rates be what we hearken back to as a golden age of entrepreneurism? Some might argue it wasn’t that at all: what Cringely longs for is just another bubble, in this case the dot-com bubble.
Yes, the dot-com bubble was fun, just as the Japanese enjoyed buying-up half of the world’s golf courses in the 1980s, but that’s not what I am talking about here.
I have a fear that true recovery has been so resistant because we’ve somehow wounded our economy making it resistant to recovery. And if we don’t find a way to heal those wounds true recovery will never happen.
What I believe to be the surprising sources of this national pain and possible ways to heal it are the topics of my next column, tomorrow.
The lack of young people willing and able to take risk, work hard, and succeed is a direct result of the memorize and spew education process that teaches to the test. Layer on top of that a disdain for business and a lack of understanding of business and profits and you get a bunch of people that just want a job and live for the weekend.
How do argue with a content-less opinion? Why, with one of your own:
I think young people see that the rewards now skew to the rentseekers and financiers. Building something isn’t rewarded; instead, the guys that can manipulate the banking system money are going to take everything. See: Edward Conard.
Yeah, always the lazy young people’s fault. If only we would just cut the top tax rate even further! Bush proved that work, after Clinton raised it and destroyed the economy!
i don’t know a lot of people like that. the ones i do know don’t trend young. you are hanging out with the wrong crowd.
i’m a little concerned the us economy is built on the same assholes who committed criminal activity while being too big to fail the first time around… but that doesn’t seem like it’ll be the subject of the next column in this series, so … the economy is being damaged by the medical coding industry is my guess.
Why yes Bob we have made our economy resistant to recovery. Our strain of MRSA is named OBAMA. I know of several friends who are entrepreneurs who are waiting for him to get tossed out before deploying any more capital.
And just so you know: The economy under Bush was better than it has ever been under Obama. Your words seem to imply that somehow Bush was responsible for a bad economy that looked good compared to what we have under Obama yet you don’t lay any responsibility on Obama. Don’t tell me you are an Obama FanBoi. He is reprehensible if you pay close attention. ( Caveat I did not like Bush that much but he is George Washington compared to Angry Obama )
Yes! Less regulation is what we need for growth. Let the banks do what they want. That ended up fine last time, right? Unbridled capitalism works about as well as pure socialism. The invisible hand is gone.
Anyhow, thanks for the chuckle.
Its not the banks the regulation is killing, its small business.
Small businesses are scared out of their minds right now. Obamacare, the EPA, OSHA, and countless other regulations are huge barrirers to starting new businesses.
See the food truck debacles in so many big cities. Entrenched incumbents kill all the startups. Unions are especially supportive of this, defending their turf.
However, if you look at right to work states, they typically have unemployment rates 2% cheaper than not-right to work states. Unions have their place, but right now they are killing the goose that laid the golden eggs.
Also, in technology, startups have the added specter of IP rights that has the potential to wipe so many of them out before they even get started.
Long story short, no one is trying anything new because trying new things has been made too damn dangerous!!
You’ve got to be kidding me.
Bush’s policy mix braizenly moved about $10 trillion or more from the supply side to the demand side of the economy. Once the credit lines ran out, demand plunged.
This is basic mechanics. This was predictable and therefore, most likely intentional. That why Republicans are called “the Wrecking Crew”. The only question was the timing, and unfortunately they got it wrong.
Concentrated wealth is the destroyer of Nations, Empires and civilizations: Ancient Egypt’s New Kingdom, Rome, Byzantium, Medieval Japan, Hapsburg Spain, Bourbon France, Romanov Russia, Coolidge/Hoover America (paving the way to the rise of Hitler, WWII, and the Holocost) and now Bush II’s America.
In nearly all of those instances, wealth became concentrated (in Rome 6 senators owned half of North Africa – per Nobel Laureate D. North’s “Structure and Change in Economic History”) the wealthy and powerful used their influence to avoid paying taxes, and the state structures collapse. In the case of Rome, they lacked the political will to raise sufficient army to protect its borders against landless, illiterate nomads, despite controling all the resources of Western Civilization, when that included half the Near East and all of North Africa as well as the better half of Europe. The entire general’s corp was made up of barbarian generals.
This is a market oriented economy. 70% of all economic activity is tied to convention. You shrink demand, you shrink the economy. The concentration of wealth is irreversible. The rich won’t pay taxes but they will buy politicians, by the bushel. Bush concentrated wealth, Obama has failed to unconcentrated wealth. That is entirely predictable. The wealthy won’t surrender their gains short of wheeling out the guillotines.
In the mean time, investors aren’t investing because there is no demand, not because Obama’s in office. No one’s going to build a factory if there are no customers for the products.
America is ruled by one governing principle: free contract. In that context, bargaining power is everything. The wealthy have systematically attacked any agency or organizational arrangement that provided competing bargaining power for rents that were up for grabs – including ACORN for chrype sake. We are living in the brave new world where their are no effective agencies to help the middle class gain bargaining power. And it is that way on purpose.
The beating will continue, until moral improves
Wow. Nicely said, Tim.
Do we live in a monarchy? Did you forget we have a House and a Senate that was under Democratic leadership from 2006 until early 2009? You act like Bush could do whatever he wanted. Wrong. He did what the effing Dems wanted. And to top it off the Dem Senate can’t even bring a budget to be voted on in three years. It’s criminal. But NOBODY cares! Give me a break and get a clue. The Dems are destroying this country…by choice.
Thanks, blad_Rnr, but I wish it were true that they were trying to destroy it by choice. Then we would have something to work with…like give them a reason to choose otherwise. The problem is that they are well meaning and really believe that bureaucrats spending other people’s money is better than a free economy.
Last week this video was posted:
Beers in Bunnie’s Workshop – Workshop Video #36
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zt7WVF5UfnA
“Starring” Andrew ‘Bunnie’ Huang and hosted by Ian(tube) / dangerousprototypes.com (I admit to not knowing his name…)
The conversation takes place in Singapore … and the substance and circumstances of the discussion made me think: is our (i.e. U.S.A.) Fate sealed?
By Fate I do mean the very topic raised in this Part 1 Commentary.
I’m mystified why increasing house prices are considered a recovery. House prices going up is a very bad thing – it makes the cost of living greater and takes away from money people could otherwise spend or save. It also decreases mobility due to the large sums involved. As a thought experiment how would things be different if median house prices were a dollar each or a million dollars each? What would happen to spending, mobility and risk taking.
Also tied into mobility is why it is even necessary? The main answer is that telepresence isn’t good enough due to poor broadband infrastructure. The moment it becomes easy for anyone anywhere in the country to work for a company anywhere else in the country then there will be increased economic activity and it makes the house prices in any one area less relevant.
The elephant in the room is health care. The solution is blindingly obvious – provide coverage for all residents through taxes (this is already the case for around half of all healthcare spending anyway!). Let those who want to pay for more (eg shorter wait lists, TVs and fresh flowers in a hospital room) or provide private services work things out between themselves like any regular market.
>>I’m mystified why increasing house prices are considered a recovery. House prices going up is a very bad thing – it makes the cost of living greater… <<
Higher housing prices are good when you're thinking about it from the perspective of assets that lost a ton of value: if they become a little more valuable you increase the number of folks that can do something with them. Right now a lot of people are completely unable to refinance or sell because the loans are so far under water. Raise the value of the properties a little and they'll be freed enough to move to a smaller house. Higher values at this point aren't hurting buyers nearly as much as helping sellers, so it's still a good thing. Clearly there's a point where higher costs hurt more than help, but we aren't there yet.
Depends on where you are.
In the Washington, D.C. Metro Area (Virginia, D.C, and Maryland) the prices were far too high to at the start of the bubble – the base market couldn’t buy in (a good sign of a bubble about to collapse). Prices there are still probably too high for the base market; yet at the same time they suffer from what you are describing. The problem? A stagnant housing market – too high for buyers, yet too low for sellers. The solution? The sellers writing off a portion of their losses. It’s a simple but hard truth, and the same can be said for other areas (e.g. Phoenix, AZ) that were in similar situations. If you bought in to try to game the market and make a profit, then you also need to accept the losses. (Housing is not a money making market for home owners. It’s a way to hold money and get back an equivalent amount in an inflationary/deflationary adjusted market.)
On the other hand, many places were not very affected by the bubble – for instance, Columbia, SC went from under-valued prices ($60k) to normative prices ($100-120k). It’s slipping some, but not by much and the base market still can easily buy in.
Polarization of the jobs into high-wage occupations and low-wage occupations harkens back to the days of the Middle-Ages.
You are taking things to extremes when you make this argument. But in any case what you talk about is mostly caused by big government licensing monopolies. An example of this is how “beer” industry keeps “pot” industry illegal.
Some possible reasons for the poor US economy:
(1) The housing market became overpriced due to abnormal, false demand due to banks passing on the mortgage debt to consolidators who used the debt to back fraudulent bonds. Everyone got involved in the swindle – from the appraisers who produced high home valuations to the banks that approved mortgages that the buyers would not be able to service after the first few years. The ensuing housing crash was inevitable. People thus lost their source of equity loans. Result — no more spending splurges!
(2) Corporations sent jobs to low-cost areas overseas. Corporate big wigs wanted big bonuses and handsome stock options so they used this method to increase (at least temporarily) the net profit and stock price of their company.
(3) Many banks stop making loans for entrepreneurs to start or expand their operations.
(4) Some people believe that certain international financiers are deliberately crashing the US economy so they can more easily rule the world. (Of course, some people also believe in flying saucers. Who knows for sure?)
If you cut back on the black helicopters and turn up the Occam’s Razor you get something something useful from these ideas:
1. Any time there’s an apparent gold rush you’ll get a lot of guys selling expensive shovels and $2 eggs. I think the demand was real, the available money was real, and the house valuations were something we’d like to reconsider a bit. In the end the train ran out of rails, the music stopped and many folks were left without a place to sit or sell, and lots of people took a moment to look at their spending habits. Sure the loss of equity to borrow against hurt, but endless credit card debt looks much worse the morning after and it was time for a lot of people to grow up.
2. This has always been true and wasn’t much different in the past ten years then in the decades when manufacturing was shipped out. I guess it was different this time because it was middle class jobs, keyboard and whiteboard and shower-before-work jobs that you couldn’t move in the past that were getting sent away this time. It’s the same in the end though: solid manufacturing jobs were the heart of the economy back in the day just as a mountain of IT and semi-professional gigs were the heart of the middle class today.
3. Banks slowing down is sort of a good thing because the money was too easy in certain areas before and banks weren’t always great about that equity to debt thing. But now they’re back in balance more or less and they’re still afraid, and that is a real problem.
4. This was widely exposed by Mike Myers back in 1993:
Stuart Mackenzie: Well, it’s a well known fact, Sonny Jim, that there’s a secret society of the five wealthiest people in the world, known as The Pentavirate, who run everything in the world, including the newspapers, and meet tri-annually at a secret country mansion in Colorado, known as The Meadows.
Tony Giardino: So who’s in this Pentavirate?
Stuart Mackenzie: The Queen, The Vatican, The Gettys, The Rothschilds, *and* Colonel Sanders before he went tits up. Oh, I hated the Colonel with is wee *beady* eyes, and that smug look on his face. “Oh, you’re gonna buy my chicken! Ohhhhh!”
Charlie Mackenzie: Dad, how can you hate “The Colonel”?
Stuart Mackenzie: Because he puts an addictive chemical in his chicken that makes ya crave it fortnightly, smartass!
Bob – contrary to what you’ve been led to believe by Keynesians like Paul Krugman and their ilk, spending is NOT what expands economies.
Economies only expand through production and savings – NOT spending/consumption.
The Keynesians will retort with something like “But if no one is consuming, why will anyone produce?”
What they forget though are 3 facts of reality:
a) Human beings have unlimited wants.
b) While human beings have unlimited wants, they have limited resources to satisfy those wants.
c) What then enables them to satisfy some of those wants? Production.
This means that in the natural order of things, production always comes BEFORE consumption. You can’t consume something that you haven’t first produced.
Therefore, spending is not what drives an economy. Given that human beings have unlimited wants, people will spend if they have the ability to spend.
And what creates the ability to spend? Production.
So it’s production that drives an economy.
And economies grow when people don’t consume everything that they produce (i.e. they save).
Savings leads to capital accumulation, which helps entrepreneurs and businessmen invest in new technologies, new capital equipment and more efficient methods of production.
These investments lead to increases in labor productivity. Competition amongst employers to hire these more productive workers leads to a rise in wages and the general level of prosperity in the society.
This is how the U.S. became the most prosperous nation in the world in the latter half of the 19th century. This is how every economy grows.
So please stop listening to the mainstream media which says that 70% of the U.S. economy is driven by consumer spending and therefore, the way to get the economy moving again is to somehow encourage consumers to spend more.
That’s simply putting the cart before the horse.
Also, you said: “Our poster child for the current U.S. economy is Japan, which has managed not to fully recover from the recession following its bubble economy of the late 1980s — 25 years of economic stagnation made tolerable through deficit spending by the state”.
Once again, the Keynesians have caused you to mix cause and effect. The economic stagnation was not made tolerable because of deficit spending by the Japanese government. It’s the deficit spending that was one of the major CAUSES of the economic stagnation.
The deficit spending prevented the bubble from fully bursting in Japan and prevented the liquidation of all the malinvestments that had been made during the bubble. By preventing the liquidation of these malinvestments (in order to avoid the wrenching short-term pain that this would cause), the Japanese government prevented the economy from self-correcting. By trying to avoid the short-term pain, the Japanese government simply guaranteed economic malaise in the long-term.
The only reason the Japanese economy has not collapsed in spite of this kind of reckless deficit spending is that Japanese citizens had a very high savings rate (which meant that the Japanese government didn’t have to borrow from overseas investors and could borrow from its own citizens.)
However, the U.S. doesn’t have the luxury either because U.S. citizens hardly save anything at all. But given that the U.S. government has continued the same kind of reckless deficit spending that the Japanese did, what you’re going to get in the next few years is a complete economic collapse in the U.S. which will make the crash of 2008 look like a walk in the park.
If you really want to understand what got us into this mess and how we can get out of it, I would encourage you to stop listening to the Keynesians and look up Austrian economists like Ludwig von Mises, Hayek, Robert Murphy etc.
A good place to start would be https://www.mises.org
Cheers,
Jason
… you’ve been led to believe …
… what they forget …
… please stop listening to the mainstream media …
… have caused you to …
… if you really want to understand …
OK, we get it. You’re a genius who is able to look through the hype, and the rest of us are just being herded along, incapable of independent thought. I’m really surprised you didn’t use the word sheeple.
Economies are much, much more complicated than this simple supply-side tale that you’ve just spun. As an example: “Humans have unlimited wants”. Even if we accept that, humans do not have unlimited resources. They will need money in order to create demand for all this production you want to start up. It’s a messy feedback loop, with lots of noise and variables.
I think that if you just needed to invest capital and create products for a successful economy, then the .com boom wouldn’t have gone quite so bust.
Anyway, if we’re going to have an emotional debate, with no easy way to reach a rational conclusion, I’d like to suggest something other than Austrian-vs-Keynesian. Here’s a couple that are more fun:
– Having designated hitters is better.
– vi is better than emacs.
Doh – screwed up an edit in that paragraph starting with Economies are much …, had some stuff about starting the feedback loop and what happens when it stops, etc. Not going to bother re-stating it, just going to move on:
vi is better.
I smell a moronic liberal !
I smell a troll.
Putting the two words together is inflamatory…totally unnecessary.
People who use vi when there are alternatives merely strengthen the case of advocates of involuntary euthanasia.
Emacs users get what they deserve: carpal tunnel.
Or, Jason, I’m just stupid.
Frankly, I don’t think these distinctions matter very much, nor are they what I’ll be writing about in tomorrow’s column, which may surprise you.
This isn’t an economics text, it’s just a statement of my opinion, and layman that i am I tend to play fast-and-loose with the language, hoping to get my point across before someone falls asleep.
“Frankly, I don’t think these distinctions matter very much”
Bob – these distinctions not only matter, it is precisely the fact that people don’t understand these distinctions that is one of the main reasons that has caused this mess.
It is precisely because governments and politicians have been misguided by Keynesian economists into thinking that increasing consumption/spending (as opposed to increasing production and savings) is the key to growing an economy – it is precisely this fact that is one of the main reasons that we are in a mess today.
Among other things, it causes governments/the central bank to set interest rates at artificially low levels, thus disincentivizing savings and encouraging consumption. And the artificially low interest rates is one of the main reasons (among many others) that we had the housing bubble.
It seems to me that when an economy is hemorrhaging, like ours is, you don’t want to encourage more flow any more than you’d want to increase the bleeding from a broken blood vessel. It seems a better plan to stop the flow, allow it to build up to regular levels, then carefully let it move again.
It also seems to me important to ask the question, who actually benefits from a “spend more” approach? Certainly not the people doing the spending. More of the economy leaks upwards into the hands of those who already have the lion’s share, while those lower down the ladder, the ones spending without saving, get poorer.
For crying out loud, it’s basic common sense we all learned from our grandfathers: Save your money! You can’t spend what you don’t have, and in the event of a rainy day or week or year (or decade, as most of our grandfathers lived during the Great Depression) you need as much reserves as you can save. Sure, we don’t want to be so miserly that we don’t circulate anything, but it’s pretty darn obvious the American people are not very inclined towards miserliness.
When something is out of balance in one direction, you don’t bring balance by continuing in the same direction. This aggressive and ungrounded approach to spending will surely require a major event to wake folks up to reality.
Currently there is little incentive to save instead of consume.
Even money market accounts struggle to yield 1% (some are as low as 0.25%)
Inflation has rocketed – analysts are noe talking about 10% increases in prices for food, year-over-year.
Might as well buy that big HDTV or remodel your kitchen with “pergo-grani-teel” or buy a whopping big new McMansion (given a 30 year mortgage rate closing in on 3%) instead of ‘prudently’ saving.
While I generally agree with your sentiment about the farce that is Keysian Economics, realize too that Interest Rates are not being held low to encourage spending right now, but to prevent a further melt down as too many mortgages/loans/etc are based on a variable interest rate, and if they raise it then it will put more into bankruptcy.
The financial house of cards that crashed with the housing market had a number of different factors – from out of control housing prices, to CDO/CDS funds, to little things like variable rate interest loans. Variable Rate interest loans have effectively stolen one tool from the Fed – they can’t raise rates without further hurting the economy. While they don’t make up anywhere near a majority of loans (last I saw they were actually <10% of loans) they are in key areas of the country (e.g. W, D.C Metro Area) that have a lot of sway in the economics of the U.S – so any impact to them is big. (Yes, people in the W, D.C metro area did a lot of Variable Rate loans due to the housing bubble – they saw it as an easy way to stave off the interest in the short time they'd be there, and hope to pull out a few tens of thousands of dollars from the housing market at the sale, all the while saying it won't go down because gov't is there.)
i agree with a lot of things you say about production, but savings isn’t necessary, by mutual agreement the economy can agree to work on a creditor basis, which will be easily absorbed by the economic robots producing to meet the unlimited wants of society at the maximally effective observed rate.
You missed econ 101 obviously.
“And economies grow when people don’t consume everything that they produce (i.e. they save).”
Which causes excess inventory that leads to a halt in Production…
If you lined up all of the economists in the world end to end, they would never reach a conclusion.
Jason:
Economics is dominated by the law of supply and demand.
Government can attempt to enhance either supply or demand.
What should it do?
Well for starters, we have a (free) market oriented economy: 70% of all economic activity is tied to consumption, ie. demand. So demand side bias policies are bound to be more efficacious than supply side bias.
If you have too much demand in relative too supply, you get inflation. If you have too much supply relative to demand you get deflation.
So if you have an inflationary recession (stagflation such as 1980), supply side might be a valid, pragmatic economic policy choice.
If you have a deflationary recession (which we had as early as 2001), then demand side economics make the most sense. Bush had a deflationary recession in 2001, he should have shifted to demand side policies. But instead, he implemented supply side policies to the tune of moving over $10 trillion from demand to supply side policies. He covered his track with cheap money and easy credit from China. When the credit ran out, demand collapsed.
Republicans demand supply side policies all the time. No matterwhat the conditions. This suggest that they are pure ideologues.
Keynesianism is a version of pragmatism. When you have depressed demand, government has to pursue demand side bias – which means spending. Paying off the debt is something you do when you have a good economy or inflationary recession.
By the way, supply side saturation leads to cries for deregulation because rich investors cant get decent ROI. Likewise, they supply saturation leads to investment bubbles: if a sector of the economy does have decent returns – say a new technology which brings with it its own latent demand – investors flood into that sector like moths to a lightbulb, creating investment bubbles.
Face it. Demand side bias policies are needed today. To Keynesian’s credit they at least embrace pragmatism. There is no way that more intense supply side policies are the answer to all problems. That’s just common sense – also known as pragmatism.
Tim – you’ve simply repeated whatever Bob said in his original post (i.e. that spending is what is needed to grow an economy).
All that I can say in response is – please go ahead and read my first comment again, and if you have some specific criticisms of what I said, have a go at it.
Specifically, read what I wrote about the fundamental facts of reality: that human beings have unlimited wants, which means that, unlike what Keynesians believe, you never really have to worry about “people not wanting to spend” or there being “depressed demand”. If people produce, they are going to either spend it or save it (and savings gets transformed into investments – which is another form of expenditure).
Willingness to spend is not the issue since human beings have unlimited wants. It’s the ABILITY to spend that is the issue. And that ABILITY only comes from production.
Production has always, and will always, be the key. Not demand. Trying to deny that is equivalent to denying that the sun rises in the east.
Governments can neither enhance supply, nor enhance demand. You need to get rid of the notion that government policies (supply side OR demand side) can somehow help an economy. They can’t – not permanently – and not without creating unintended consequences elsewhere which will make the cure worse than the disease.
That’s exactly what Bush/Greenspan tried to do and that’s the reason we had the housing crisis. (Republicans are as bad when it comes to economics as Democrats).
In order to avoid the short-term pain of the recession caused by the dot com bust and 9/11, Greenspan reduced interest rates dramatically (supported by Keynesians like Krugman who were actively calling for a housing boom in order to replace the dot com boom). And these artificially reduced interest rates then caused an artificial boom in the form of the housing bubble. But like all things that are artificial, the bubble was bound to burst, and it did.
What Bush/Greenspan SHOULD have done after the dot com bust is – NOTHING.
Bush/Paulson then made it worse by passing TARP. They together took the economy towards the edge of the cliff. Obama/Bernanke has simply continued with the same failed economic policies of the Bush era (in fact, they’ve pressed on the accelerator), which will eventually take the US over the cliff.
The thing that Keynesians don’t seem to want to accept is that governments do not create wealth – individuals do. Governments are not the solution to the problem – the government itself is the problem.
The best thing that governments CAN do is to simply get out of the way – no bailouts, no TARP, no fiscal stimulus, no quantitative easing, etc. And let the free market determine interest rates.
Let companies/individuals who can’t pay off their debts declare bankruptcy with no bailouts for anyone. Yes, this will cause a huge amount of short-term pain. But we’re going to experience that pain one way or the other because the laws of reality can’t be denied for ever. By simply kicking the can down the road as both Bush/Obama did, we are simply going to make the eventual pain far worse.
Here’s some free advice, adapted from a question and answer session with one of the Fed’s people. the Fed person was talking up how wonderful the improvements in tech have been, and your corresponding increase in buying power. Someone in the crowd stood up and said one pointed line to shut the Fed guy up: “You can’t eat an iPad.”
Making cooler and better goods aren’t worth a damn if you have to choose between the basics and the gee-whiz goods. Between food, gas, healthcare, rent/mortgage, etc., a lot of people don’t have the cash to afford all of these cool awesome products. Those that do spend money on them do so at a disproportionate rate. (Think of the Apple fanboys who buy up the latest iPhone/iPad/Mac at the drop of a hat. One of them makes up for about 4-5 of me, who can’t afford an iPhone, let alone 4 or 5 of them.)
The problem is that wages have been lost, or stagnated, or whatever, in the pursuit of meeting quarterly numbers. I’ve known friends who had their salaries cut for a month or two, just so their bosses could meet their numbers.
There’s a huge difference in salary between a grunt like me and someone just a few layers higher, but there are 100+ of me to one of them. That one person can’t offset the buying power of 100+ people, and therein lies the issue. You give the grunts a better salary, and they’ll spend us out of the recession. If you give them a better salary and then jack up their insurance rates, that does nothing to help the economy. It only enriches the healthcare system.
I know nothing about economics, but I’m hearing:
“The balloon expands because the pressure on the inside of the balloon is greater than the pressure on the outside. We need to increase internal pressure.”
Vs.
“The balloon expands because the pressure on the outside of the balloon is less than the pressure on the inside. We need to decrease all external pressure.”
We are like Lilliputians cracking eggs.
Partially in response to Jason Kasprowicz:
It’s a serious error to think of national economies in the same terms as personal finances.
i.e. Work diligently, live within your means, don’t accumulate large credit card debt = good. The opposite = bad. If you are in debt, then spend less, work harder, pay off your debts and get back to a positive balance.
This is true for individuals and businesses, and the average person assumes that it must be true for nations as well. This is a major mistake.
Nations and banking systems, are very different, and very different principles apply.
Firstly, unlike individuals or businesses, both nations and banks are always
creating money out of nothing. Don’t believe this? Then look up fractional-reserve banking, monetary policy, and money supply. The closer you examine what money actually is, the less solid it appears. Governments can always create as much money as they like. This issue is how much to create, what the effect will be, and the best way to use it.
Secondly, nations must consider a system which encompasses both sides of transactions, both buying and selling, whereas individuals and companies are only considering one side. Individuals consider “my sales, my purchases, my profit, my money”, but from the point of view of the nation, there are two sides to every transaction. A buys, and B sells. If A doesn’t have money to buy then B can’t sell, and both lose out.
So the sames rules and policies don’t necessarily apply to individuals and governments. Creating money out of nothing, and considering the system as a whole changes the rules.
We can’t approach national finances the same way we approach our personal or business accounts. It’s a very different and very much more complex field.
And when a nation defaults, it is not the same as an individual declaring bankruptcy. Despite dire warnings to the contrary, most nations emerge from defaults quickly and in a healthier state than had they continued to pay onerous interest payments forever and anon.
The US has technically defaulted several times. Any lender assumes a risk that is factored into the interest rate of the credit granted. But with nations, a lender just doesn’t refuse to do business with them again if the last set of loans returned pennies on the dollar. Soon, more credit is extended.
Sure you’re all aware of this link….
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/
Even in England some MP’s with ‘O’ level economics think they know more than a Nobel prize winner !!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_r-AKruzmkk
“I have a fear that true recovery has been so resistant because we’ve somehow wounded our economy making it resistant to recovery.”
Two words: Irreconcilable Debt.
three word reply
we print money
You want us to get rid of the debt?
Here’s a quick answer: print more money.
The Federal government controls how much money is printed, and if they wanted to, they could print enough money to cover that debt. The trouble is, that would lead to inflation and the money would quickly wind up being worthless.
Governments play by different rules than individuals and companies, because they control the money flow.
Nice effort Bob! Huge fan ever since I read Accidental Empires. Looking forward to the follow up column.
I think the focus on the recession may be misplaced, and the real issue for employment may be the liberalization of trade with China that really took off around 2000. Whenever you have free trade between a high wage country (the US) and a low wage country (China) the wage rates will tend to converge. I think that goes a long way towards explaining what we see. The housing boom masked a slow erosion in middle class manufacturing jobs (and related fields, like engineering, and your IBM friends) due to outsourcing to China and elsewhere. When the housing boom ended, the damage was much easier to see.
This theory is consistent with the data you presented and explains the decline in middle class jobs that started long before the recession and recovery in low income jobs that can’t be moved abroad.
Even Keynes pointed out that in a relatively free trade environment fiscal stimulus can just as easily stimulate foreign economies. I think that may have also happened to some extent here. Regardless, China’s management of their currency impedes the “normal” economic adjustment you’d expect. (Just like how things adjusted between the US and Japan, which used to be a “low wage” country.)
Not down on free trade or China, and not saying trade with China is totally free, just trying to point out another explanation that is consistent with the data.
Love your work, thanks for writing!
Interesting!
Bob’s point still applies, though. There are systemic changes in mid-skill, mid-wage jobs. Secretaries are vanishing, and even factories that remain in the US have fewer employees per unit of production.
Quantifying that effect vs the outsourcing effect you described would be very difficult …
I have a feeling that understanding the issues here are amenable to traditional economics. I believe there are more fundamental, structural changes underway that reflect increased productivity, dematerialization, and accelerated growth. Think about how cellphones are substituted for computers, kiosks, phone directories, dictionaries, encyclopedias as a simplified example. Similar changes are taking place throughout the economy resulting in greater satisfaction with less need for production. I think its unlikely the lost jobs will be replaced – but there’s still the question of how we can effectively employ/deploy the citizens that do not have a job or other means of generating an income.
Mark S:
The underlying assumption behind your comment is that there IS something called a free lunch, i.e. that the rules of nature and the rules of reality which state that you cannot keep on spending more than what you have earned without it eventually leading to economic disaster – somehow this most fundamental of all nature-given rules doesn’t apply to governments.
And your argument is that the reason this rule doesn’t apply to governments is that governments can create money out of thin air.
While you are certainly correct that governments CAN and do create money out of thin air, what you are forgetting is the law of unintended consequences.
Unfortunately, no matter how hard you try, the laws of nature cannot be subverted – either by individuals or by governments. And if you try to subvert them anyway, you are going to have negative consequences that you had not foreseen or planned for.
When you print money out of thin air, you haven’t created additional wealth for the nation. You have simply redistributed wealth from one set of people to another. Why?
The wealth of a country is the REAL products and services being produced by the country. Money in the form of currency notes is NOT real wealth – it is simply a means of exchange.
If the government creates money out of thin air, the country won’t have more wealth – you’ll simply have more money chasing the same number of goods and services. The consequence of that is an increase in the prices of those goods and services.
Who does this benefit? It benefits people who have access to the increased money supply before the increased money supply has filtered through the economy and caused an increase in prices. Typically, this benefits Wall Street bankers, government contractors, etc. It also tends to benefit investors and senior corporate executives whose incomes are closely linked to the performance of their companies – the increased prices leads to an increase in profits/stock prices etc.
Who does this hurt? It hurts the poor and the middle class. Why? Because their incomes don’t increase as soon as the new money supply is created – their wages typically increase only AFTER the increased money supply has filtered through the economy and has increased prices.
This means that until such time as their wages increase to match the increase in prices, they suffer from a loss of real purchasing power.
Therefore, when governments create money, not only do they not create additional wealth, they end up redistributing wealth from the poor/middle class to the bankers, government contractors, investors and senior corporate executives – i.e. precisely the thing that most people would want to avoid.
And in addition, government money printing hurts people who have been prudent – the savers. It destroys the value of their savings since their savings can now buy less “stuff”. And it benefits people who have not been prudent – people who have taken on debt in order to consume (since inflation leads to a reduction in the real value of the debt).
So think of the perverse incentives that this creates – it incentivizes people to save less and consume more, precisely the opposite of what they should be doing (both for themselves and for the country).
And what happens if the government keeps printing money indefinitely? It simply leads to a hyperinflationary collapse. History tells us that each and every experiment with fiat currency (i.e. where the government has the license to print as much money as it wants to, as is the case now) ends in disaster. You won’t be able to point out a SINGLE instance in history when a fiat currency system hasn’t ultimately led to an economic collapse.
So, like I said at the beginning, the laws of nature can’t be subverted for ever – either by individuals or by governments. And your notion that what is good for individuals somehow doesn’t apply to governments is simply wrong – unless of course you consider the transfer of wealth from the poor/middle class to the bankers, government contractors etc. to be a good thing.
I think you either haven’t understood what I was saying, or you’re twisting it so that you can aim your arguments at a straw man.
I agree fully with you that goods and services matter, rather than currency.
That’s the reason why if the government spent money on something useful, like a major upgrade of infrastructure, or supporting small businesses – rather than bailing out bankers – then the economy would start moving again.
Mark: I simply went by whatever words you chose to use to describe what you were saying. The substance of your comment was that the principles of prudence that apply to individuals don’t apply to governments, because governments can create money out of thin air and individuals can’t. I simply demonstrated the fallacy in that argument and the fact that the same principles do apply to governments even if they can create money out of thin air. I don’t see how I created a straw man.
There are plenty of moral arguments that one could make against government spending on infrastructure or helping small businesses (since all these involve a forced redistribution of wealth from some people to others).
However, setting aside the moral arguments for the moment and focusing purely on the economics, the problem with government spending on those things is that governments don’t have a profit motive. And the lack of profit motive means that the government will, more often than not, spend money on things that people don’t need.
The notion that government spending on infrastructure or supporting small businesses can help the economy depends on the assumption that the bureaucrats and politicians and economists sitting in a nation’s capital are somehow smarter than the combined wisdom of the market – that these bureaucrats, sitting in the nation’s capital, know something that markets don’t.
If these folks were indeed smarter than the market, and knew that a particular investment, which the market is not currently making on its own, will still create economic value – wouldn’t it make sense for them to go into business on their own and make those investments in a private capacity?
If a small business won’t succeed without government help, what that means is that the free market doesn’t WANT that small business to exist in the first place – because the people of the country don’t want the product/service being produced by that business at the price that it is prepared to offer it.
Or, alternatively, what this means is that investors in the free market have come to the conclusion that the returns that they might get if they invested in that small business are not worth the risk.
Supporting such a small business in spite of the fact that the market doesn’t support its existence simply does 2 things: a) it forcibly transfers wealth from taxpayers (or the poor/middle class if the source of funding was money printing as opposed to tax revenues) to that small business owner and his/her employees, and b) it creates a net economic loss for the country (since, if that business was creating economic value on a risk-adjusted basis, it could have existed on its own in the free market without government help, and the fact that it needs government help means that it must not be creating economic value on a risk-adjusted basis).
You are totally misrepresenting what I said. Nothing I said implied a lack of fiscal responsibility.
I can only suggest that you try studying Economics 101.
Ahh … the religion of the market. Apparently the market can solve all problems, including those with externalities, multi-decade time horizons, and those without a path for reimbursement. That’s as stupid as thinking that government can solve all problems. Of course it’s much more complicated than that.
Jason, you seem to be a true believer (are you related to roman_mir?) or a paid shill. Either way, and given your ‘winning’ tone, there’s no reason to continue this discussion. Besides, it’s pretty far afield from the topic of this blog.
Yes jd, I AM a true believer. I am a true believer in individual freedom and liberty – the principles upon which the US was founded. Which is the reason I also believe in free markets. You can’t have one without the other.
“Apparently the market can solve all problems, including those with externalities, multi-decade time horizons, and those without a path for reimbursement.”
Let’s take these one by one.
Externalities: You are correct that free markets don’t lead to the most efficient outcomes in the presence of externalities. The problem though is that your solution – government intervention – is worse than the disease that you are trying to cure. Why? Because the problem of externalities that is sometimes present in some markets is ALWAYS present to an even larger extent in a democratically elected government. You may want to read this article:
https://www.daviddfriedman.com/Academic/mps_iceland_talk/Iceland%20MP%20talk.htm
The only types of governments that don’t suffer from such externalities are monarchies and dictatorships. But I am not really sure anyone would want to go down that path.
Therefore, while the externalities criticism is a valid criticism of free markets, your solution of government intervention is no solution to that criticism.
Multi-Decade Time Horizons: This is a totally invalid criticism. The facts of reality aren’t on your side on this one. Private entrepreneurs often take on projects which need large capital investments upfront and where the returns are obtained over a period of decades. Oil and gas pipelines are a case in point. So is the recent attempt by a company to mine asteroids (regardless of what you think the chances of success are for that venture). There are lots of such examples.
No Path for Reimbursement: So let’s see what you are really saying here. An investment has no path for reimbursement, because of which free markets don’t invest in it. And obviously, even YOU would not invest in a personal capacity in that venture. However, because YOU think that this is still a worthwhile thing to do perhaps because of some non-monetary considerations, you want OTHER people (i.e. taxpayers) to pay for what YOU believe in.
If you believe that a particular project is worth undertaking even though there is no path for reimbursement, you should invest in that project on your own, and get other like-minded people to go along with you voluntarily. Why do you want to force me to pay for it as well given that I may not believe in the goals behind that project?
In any case, I do agree with you on one point. There is little to gain in continuing a debate with you given that you’ve now resorted to ad hominem attacks by calling me a “paid shill”.
Cheers,
Jason
so if I understand your point, govenrment intervention which did things like got us out of the great depression, enforced civil rights, things of that nature would have been corrected by the, uhh market?
No Nick – Roosevelt’s New Deal did not get us out of the depression, contrary to what you read in your history books.
It’s the U.S. government under Hoover (i.e. prior to Roosevelt) that laid the foundation for the crash of 1929. And Roosevelt’s New Deal, far from getting us out of the depression as you have read in your history books, transformed what would have been a bad recession into a far worse depression.
You may want to read this:
https://www.thefreemanonline.org/features/great-myths-of-the-great-depression/
I am not going to comment on your “civil rights” point because we are debating economics here, not civil rights.
I know, I said I was going to leave this thread, but I couldn’t resist being rude a bit longer. A couple of points:
– “True believer” was intended as an ad hominem as well. The implication is that a true believer takes things on faith rather than reason, and demonstrates a confirmation bias that’s worse than most. An example: thinking that the David Friedman link actually demonstrated something.
– For someone with an anarcho-capitalist bend, shouldn’t “paid shill” be considered a compliment rather than an attack? After, all, it would imply that you’ve satisfied a market need. Or conversely, if you’re doing this for free, doesn’t that mean it isn’t worth anything?
[…] Hardly anyone in the U.S. economy feels prosperous ~ I, Cringely We’ve lost the entrepreneurial zeal of the 1990s. There’s something different about starting a business now compared to then. We just aren’t getting as much wealth-building for our bucks as we used to… […]
Bob;
I came across the Gini Coefficient awhile ago and found it to be a rather interesting topic. It is a measure of income inequality. If your country had a zero
coefficient everyone would have the same income. If it had a one coefficient one person would have all the income. Since Reagan the American number has been rising steadily to the present point where it is the highest of all the industrialized countries. In a generation or two it will be the same as Mexico’s if the present course is maintained. What of American democracy if it reaches that point? The USA will be a country run by and for the 1%. In this context that computer being built in Utah that will check everyone’s email and listen to, store, and analyse their phone conversations makes sense. Also Homeland Securities purchase of a half billion rounds of .40 ammo. America is full of well armed rugged individualists who are going to make a lot of trouble if inequality gets out of hand. New Scientist last week had an article about a guy doing mathematical analyses of historical trends involving inequality and he is predicting violence by the end of this decade.
> we just aren’t getting as much wealth-building for our bucks.
Scarcity of oil? I’m no serious analyst but, if energy is expensive it seems it /must/ have a general dampening effect.
It’s time to re-examine the mainstream economic policies of the last 20 years. Remember when we were told that offshoring manufacturing was a good idea because we’d all get high paying service jobs (yet most new service jobs are low pay/skill)? Or that outsourcing was good because it would make us more competive (while it displaced high paid experienced workers and lowered quality)? Or that removal of tariffs was needed because “nobody wins in a trade war” (yet China adds 100% import tariffs on cars)? Or that we need millions more low-skilled immigrants in a mature economy (while illegal immigrants have driven down wages in blue collar jobs)? Or that printing more debt-based-money will stimulate an economy burdened with too much debt?
The economic dogma that got us into ths malaise haven’t worked in the real world, but policy makers will probably double-down with even-more-of-the-same rather than admit they were wrong.
Obama has done nothing to create jobs and everything to destroy them.
1. EPA regulation and pending regulations makes it extremely difficult to locate any new production in Oklahoma and Texas due to the threat of forcing are low cost power plants to switch to natural gas which they are not designed to burn.
2. Obama care is a great unknown as to what the ultimate cost will be to any company. One provision in the law requires all health care workers to belong to a government employee union in non-right to work states.
3. The great unkown of future tax policy.
4. Obama continualy bashing anyone in the US who has been successful. Remember his speach where he said that entrenpenuers didn’t build their business the government built it for them.
Bill Clinton had excellent ecomomic advice, Bush 43 not so good and Obama non existant. Why else would he do everything to try to destroy jobs and wealth and nothing to grown them. As Ronald Regan said if we can make the pie bigger everyone can have a bigger piece. Obama say’s the pie can’t get any bigger and so the folks taking the bigger pieces are stealing from the rest of us.
your points 2-4 can be summed up by Donald Rumsfeld:
“There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don’t know we don’t know.”
+ 1 on John’s point
“Remember his speach where he said that entrenpenuers didn’t build their business the government built it for them”
Obama never said that, but it’s been a brain dead republican talking point.
I was curious about your forced unionization of health care workers claim, after a bit of googling all I could find was a reference to a memo from Service Employees International Union (SEIU) Healthcare president Dennis Rivera to the transition team of Obama-Biden.
That memo outlined a legislative proposal calling for “increasing the capacity of the health care workforce” as part of a larger health care reform initiative.
Maybe I’m not paranoid enough, but if we’re expanding the number of people with health insurance by tens of millions, then increasing the healthcare workforce seems like a no brainer. I suppose some of those new workers will be union members, oh the horror.
Let’s just hope that the government does not think it needs a major war for the economy to recover, like last time. My hopes for a wiser government aren’t high, though …
My last two cents worth.
(1) Every time unbacked paper money was used by a government, it eventually lost all its value.
(2) Study those empires that collapsed. It was usually due to change in climate, depletion of natural resources, overextension of the empire’s power in attempting to control other nations, debasement of the currency, or concentration of governmental power in the hands of the rich and powerful. The US is experiencing all of these telltale signs.
I think the aging of our population is an overlooked factor in assessing the state of the economy.
Past promises of rosy retirements for government workers, made to postpone salary increases, are now coming due and that’s why cities in California are declaring bankruptcy — to restructure the public debt to retirees.
This financial overpromising was also going on at the Federal level with social security and health care, but actually less so than at the state level and the Feds do have a printing press to actually make the money to pay promises with.
However what is generally not discussed about an aging population is how pessimistic and just plain grouchy old people are. As a society we’re losing our optimism in the same way old people do because they can feel an end to their life approaching.
We need a new sense of happiness and adventure that captures some common spirit. Maybe we’ll just get tired of being depressed for so long.
Our society psychology needs to change, despite the advances of age, to really cure the great recession.
Maybe it is just me but when economies actually build things, growth happens. When we build houses or computers or widgets that is when the economy kicks over. When we first started outsourcing some of our manufacturing, we replaced it with more and elaborate manufacturing. Making shirts give way to electronics gives way to computers, etc. In recent times, this replacement hasn’t happened so we turned to innovation and money changing (day trading and speculation anyone) to show gains. But just relying on innovation is not enough. Just relying on money changing hands is not enough.
People have to WANT something. They need a GOAL to attain to. We spent hundreds of billions on infrastructure (shovel ready) projects that did not boost anything. We needed a direction and nothing came. Instead we turned inward hoping that would solve the problem.
Personally, I would have like to see that kind of money dedicated to Space resources. Imagine the number of engineers we would need? How many mathematicians? How many educators, builders and janitors? How many new offices and components could we have built? The infrastructure would change/improve to meet the demand and we would be a bit farther along in our recovery than we are now.
A leader should lead – give us as a country a direction that inspires us and shows us what we can do. Alas, I fear that none of the current candidates has what it will take to do just what we need.
Cringely is classic ‘deep thinker/observer’ tech. I would like to have seen him invoke some contemporary ‘deep thinker/observers’ in the relevant aspects of economics. Too many of *those* people have been drawn to the ‘dark side’ of the economics Force…finance. I’m pretty damn good at this shit, and I can’t find a group of serious people harmonizing around viewpoints and ideas that will allow us to read and grasp our situation, and have prescribe action. It’s like we’re all blogging/tweeting/commenting on a runaway train, and nobody knows how to stop it.
1. In classical economics, free markets always adjust via prices to achieve equilibrium. There is empirical evidence to suggest that in the ‘real world’ prices can be “sticky” and therefore cannot freely adjust to achieve equilibrium.
2. If prices are not free to adjust it’s probable that markets fail to achieve the best allocation of resources and a beauracrat could potentially make just as good an allocation of resources as the market can.
3. I would love someone to explain how the ‘free’ market can solve this economic problem: Suppose you have a sluggish economy (low growth) and high unemployment. As a result of past over dependence on monetary policy to get yourself out of trouble you now find that FED interest rates are close to 0 (i.e. there is little room left to cut interest rates). In addition, business and consumer confidence are at low levels and there is a threat of global financial system collapse on the horizon. (Try not to mention the classical economics fantasy phrase “long-run” in your answer.)
DWL,
Economics is not a science. Economies are affected by the actions of people. Moreover, people’s actions cannot always be predicted. What you really have in economics is simply contending belief systems. Beliefs, unfortunately, may only represent wishful thinking rather than reality.
Conservatives tend to believe that people should get only whatever they can earn. Whereas liberals (and often the government) tend to believe that people should be given a “living” wage by society if they cannot earn it themselves. No arguments are going to change these people’s beliefs. Therefore, if you’re looking for a “perfect” solution to our problems you’re not going to find one.
We don’t have a free and open market system so you also can forget about any kind of automatic adjustment to some mythical “equilibrium” point. Governments and labor unions tend to impose minimum wages on various occupations. If we actually had a free and open market system and if people were willing to settle for whatever wages they could earn then the unemployment rate would undergo a drastic decline. Unfortunately, the standard of living for those people would also undergo a drastic decline. This brings up the question — which is better, a drastic decline in the standard of living for some people or the total collapse of the government and its accompanying welfare system due to excessive debt?
Probably the best that can be hoped for would be some common sense compromises by the various power groups before things get too far out of hand.
Here’s a simple reason for the slow recovery. Around 2005 the price of oil began to rise from $40 to the current $100 per barrel. At 19 million barrels per day consumption, the U.S. economy is being drained of an additional $400 billion per year.
For $400 billion you could hire all of the 12 million unemployed at $17 per hour.
It’s very unlikely we will ever see oil at $40 a barrel ever again. An increase to $160 a barrel would likely double the unemployment rate.
Bob, you failed to address the question of why the current recession happened in the first place. Would you like to propose an explanation?
[…] Click Here. […]
Americans say the love freedom, but the reality is most of us are indentured to our employers. Until we realize and celebrate the “American Dream” as business ownership, instead of a good “laboring” job, we’re doomed.
At this point in time, the laboring class which includes everyone that doesn’t risk capital to earn a living (teachers, office workers, factory workers, service industry workers, government employees, etc.), is so comfortable, it has no incentive to become “self employed” – the original “American Dream.” Unfortunately, the self employed are the creators of the jobs and with very few laborers entering the ranks of the self employed, very few jobs are being created. As government continues to “tax the rich” (who also happen to be the self employed), the incentives for self employment wane even further.
See the entire article at:
blanejackson.com
This weird Ayn Randian fantasy seems to have no connection with reality at all.
I see. So we should all quit our jobs and become self-employed, so we can create more jobs and hire more people. Who should then quit and become self employed.
Can’t wait to buy my first car designed and built by one guy. I do think I’ll have to give up air travel though.
Steve Jobs outsourced production jobs to China. Steve Jobs hid profits overseas. The billions Apple hides overseas are untaxed,so much for trickle down. Steve Jobs’ Apple was one of the first tech companies to do this. Hey Cringely, would you want any of the women in in your family to work in an Apple factory?
[…] Hardly anyone in the U.S. economy feels prosperous ~ I, Cringely […]
I personally think that the problem has been there for longer than the recession. The heart of an economy is manufacturing and when manufacturing was shipped to China, the money and demand followed.
To increase decreasing demand, people got lower interest rates and bought things with easy credit for a while but this only delayed the eventual crash. Businesses won’t produce and banks won’t make loans for businesses if there is no demand for the products. But the demand is in China and won’t come back until the wages there are too high and manufacturing returns (which is starting to happen).
The economy will recover more when businesses understand that they have to create demand here by bringing back the jobs here and pay decent wages to be able to purchase things.
John Taylor Gatto is a retired public school teacher. After spending 30 years in the belly of the beast, he quit. He’s spent the last 20 years sharing things he saw or learned through study and conversation. His writing frequently touches on the idea that public school is designed to turn us into a mass consumer society. We are taught rudimentary math in order to make it easier to fleece us with credit agreements. We pursue novelty and entertainment rather than real accomplishment.
One of his arguments is that free-market capitalism died at the end of the 19th century. Competition isn’t a good thing; it’s a bad thing. Much better to drive your competition out of business and control the market than compete on a level playing field. Using school to dumb us down ensures the playing field will be strewn with rocks and garbage with which to pelt us.
Organizations do not grow to become too big to fail; they grow to become too big to care.
He likes to compare the Amish economy to the rest of society. The Amish have a self-imposed limit on earnings . . . something like half a million dollars a year. Why? So no one controls the market or prevents opportunity for someone else. Sounds like the U.S. propaganda taught as history in our schools, doesn’t it?
[…] or regions, slicing orthogonally (e.g. by age, by occupation, by education level), etc. In Why hardly anyone in the U.S. economy feels prosperous anymore, Robert Cringely slices the employment figures over the last decade by wage levels: high, mid, and […]
Three thoughts come to mind:
1. “Public confidence” – we tend to undervalue the fact that beyond a bare minimum set of commodities needed for survival, all value is set by human agreement and consensus – gold, tulips, internet stocks. It is the belief in the future based on a philosophy of common good, greed, fairies, or God – you take your pick – that drives decision making concerning risk in the future, and the dispensation of current assets. Th economy and jobs are all about the exchange of products created by humans.
2. “Evidence” – the easiest way to move beyond opinion is to look at what has worked in the recent past – austerity in the UK driving a double dip recession, lowering of corporate tax rates in Canada with a negligible impact on the GDP, the new deal etc.
3. “The long term view” – long term strategies in the end always win out against short term profiteering. This is why I believe the current financial markets and rewards given to many top level managers are destructive to prosperity and true asset formation.
Mitt Romney’s honest and controversial private thoughts to his followers hitting the air waves now has one point if true that will change USA society in the future for the worse.
It is relevant to your position Robert X (what does X mean) on a invention lead recovery of USA financial health.
That fact is: 47% of USA population is dependent on USA government charity, in the form of food stamps or unemployment benefits and don’t pay tax. — THAT’S MORE THAN 150 MILLION CITIZENS.
If that figure involves retirees also, lets reduce that figure to 23% or more than 70 million abled bodies willing (?) to work that are without work!! Lets not talk about the fraud of unemployment figures or the deception of the whole population of a vibrant healthy economy. It is the consequences of 70 million disenfranchised unlead group of people that makes for a perfect “American Spring” a la “Arab Spring”. In my life I’ve seen riots sparked by spontaneous responses to illegal police acts in USA and the same response occurred in the failed states of the Arab Spring. (I have a theory based on Maslow’s hierarchy and Mice plagues as to why the Arab Spring occurred)
I myself followed your invention lead recovery years before you thought of it. Bush43 bankrupted one invention with his ban on cloning. The Pentagon bankrupted another with 15 years of bureaucracy. And another went bust with the different laws of patents between USA and Ozzie. So my nest egg is empty to follow Cringely’s belated advice like millions of the poor middle class.*
My point is that 70 million if employed would make for a more vibrant and expanding USA economy that would accept any new product that you could offer. But if they are not allowed to follow the Maslow trajectory, will make the October Uprising look like a picnic and make the Communist prediction of revolution in USA in the 1930’s come true 80 years later, without any external or internal communist intervention.**
Oh and from the constitution, the rabble is armed already and don’t need NATO donations of weapons.
* And I’m getting old to spend time to make my fortune especially when I won’t have much time to enjoy its fruits. Nor want to help, by just selling my invention to begging Muslims to save themselves from themselves and who in gratitude kill me for their deluded view of Allah who seems never to save themselves from themselves.
** OR Brave New World’s soma to control the population is needed to keep the peace.
Nixon’s father returned to the US government the $5000 he was granted when he was on his feet again, was why there was no revolution then. How many are like him today? Just ask Wall St.?
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