Last week Microsoft kinda-sorta announced its new Microsoft Surface tablet computer. This week will come a Google-branded tablet. Both are pitted against the mighty iPad. Both companies see opportunity because of what they perceive as a Steve Jobs blind spot. And both companies are introducing tablets under their own brands because they can’t their get OEM’s to do tablets correctly.
For all the speculation about why Microsoft or Google would risk offending hardware OEMs by introducing name branded tablets, the reality is that neither company really had any choice but to make the hardware. In the commodity PC market, no one company is likely to be willing to make the investment necessary to compete with the highly-integrated iPad. Samsung tried, and even then it didn’t pay off for them. Taiwan Inc + Dell just don’t seem to run that way. Furthermore, it is a lot easier to make a product when you control the operating system. You have the experts right there. You don’t have to go through support channels to fix stuff. So ultimately, Microsoft and Google should be able to make much better products than their licensees.
If their OEMs want to compete — really compete — let them spend the extra money required or stop complaining.
Both Microsoft and Google can compete at around the same price as Apple (for the WindowsRT and Android versions) but no less. Microsoft’s Windows 8 version will cost more due to the Intel tax and the Windows license tax. Both Microsoft and Google will likely use Tegra as the System On Chip (SOC) since it is the fastest out there and closest to the A5X. All the other components are available. Apple can cause component supply problems for Microsoft, and possibly some component pricing issues as a result. But Microsoft and Google will just swallow these extra costs in the beginning to remain price-competitive.
The real question is software. iPads suck for productivity apps like Office. This is of course by design, because Steve Jobs did not value the enterprise market (that’s the blind spot). Both Microsoft and Google tablets will be aimed squarely at that spot, with the Microsoft tablet being essentially an Office/Exchange machine and the Google tablet dedicated to Google Apps.
Email is okay on the iPad, but full Outlook compatibility is still missing (contacts, calendaring still seem to miss from time to time). So Microsoft can win with the executive & enterprise audience, although I have to assume that Apple is going to provide a major revamp of iWork one of these days, plus an integrated iPad/Macbook Air type of productivity product.
Ironically, IT departments will be attracted to the Microsoft tablet, especially, because it won’t be as locked-down as the iPad — a complete reversal of policy.
Today, PCs basically beat Apple on price but not much else. Most people and companies buy PCs despite their inferiority in every respect then try to defend their decision on the grounds of personal preference or corporate policy. Microsoft and Google won’t have a price advantage with tablets, so they’ll have to actually make a better product, or win on corporate policy which is getting harder to do. That’s why succeeding in tablets is important for both companies but absolutely vital for Microsoft.
Redmond has a chance in this space if the embedded/xBox team are given the tools to do it right. But my bet is that they won’t break through to the knuckleheads on the Office and Windows teams who desperately want to protect their margins and still struggle with usability.
Google is the dark horse here. Their tablet will presumably come from Motorola Mobility and will run Google Apps like crazy. But Google, like Microsoft, doesn’t have a reputation for quality that’s required to compete in this space.
With Steve Jobs gone and Apple finally allowed to take some cues from the marketplace, what these two tablets may do most of all is awaken a sleeping giant, filling him with terrible resolve.
Fortunately that can only be good for consumers.
I don’t see google doing their own tablet exclusively through moro. I am guessing it will be a ‘Nexus’ product, meaning any vendor could be ‘blessed’ with the opportunity to release a nexus tablet exactly as the do now with the Nexus phones. Nexus phones are ‘pure android’ but they are still branded by the manufacturer. The only major distinction I would bet on between the current nexus phone business model and the nexus tablets would be that I don’t expect google wants a single company to be able to take the Nexus name and build their entire business around it, as has happened with Samsung. Sammie got very lucky with being given Nexus twice and used this make the Nexus name synonymous with Samsung instead of with google. By their second go round with Nexus Samsung even named their Nexus the Galaxy Nexus so as to tie the Nexus name to the rest of their Galaxy lineup. Today, you think Nexus you think Samsung. The two previous Nexus model (One and S) had no branding tie-in to the manufacturer. I don’t think Google wants Samsung or any other single company dominating their tablet sector so I believe they will have multiple concurrent Nexus models from multiple vendors. So, we may see the HTC Nexus, Sony Nexus and Samsung Nexus this year, all with slightly different market positions (7″, 10″, integrated keyboard, etc). This would contrast with the MS model of owning the whole package and selling their Surface tablets (really more of a ultra netbook laptop than an iPad like tablet) strictly under the MS brand
Actually, I’ve read the first Nexus tablet will be the Asus Eee Pad MeMO 370T. Doesn’t seem like Motorola will get any special treatment…yet. I also expect to see Nexus tablets from multiple vendors.
tablets are like wombats. cute and cuddly, with brown fur and a penchant for sleepy burrows.
Have you ever been anywhere near a wombat? They will bite your A** off if you give them half a chance. But hey, a tablet could do the same thing to your wallet, so maybe you’re right.
“Today, PCs basically beat Apple on price but not much else.”
I disagree with that – PCs beat Apple on compatibility with other PCs, which is important given that PCs still outnumber Apple platforms in the business context. I have to send materials regularly to people who use iMacs / something Apple-y and it inevitably displays incorrectly or breaks.
Don’t discount the network effect of ‘everyone else is using it’.
I’d have to agree. The problem for Apple and it’s ability to break in to the corporate market is simply because a core section of software runs exclusively on a PC and won’t on a Mac (unless you install Windows, which defeats the purpose).
MS Surface has that one advantage, but it’s also a new OS. That new OS must work seemlessly with all existing software for it to gain ground.
However, I’d like to think that some software manufacturers are looking at the Mac and reconsidering their stance. That is, they’re translating their programs to it.
I agree as well. The other area that is ignored by the ‘Macs are better than PCs’ is the gaming arena. Consoles aside, the rest of the games out there are run by Windows, and gamers drive the high end PC component market.
Gamers may “drive the high end PC component market” but Apple has never shown an interest in getting into the component business. The traditional PC market is stagnant or shrinking so gamers aren’t driving it enough. Apple has done quiet well in positioning their iOS devices as being the best for casual gamers.
Hmm, Windows PCs may be stagnant but they are still dominant.
Why? Momentum I would think. I think that’s what drives the market today, who has the most momentum. Also, price: you can get a PC for very cheap if you fiddle around hard enough. Cannot do that with a Mac.
If Microsoft and Google tablets cannot be price competitive to iPads then that’s terrible, because I won’t buy any of them.
For a PC I’m thinking of buying a GV-15 (Android 4.0 PC-on-a-stick) and for a tablet I’ll stick with a generic Android 4.0 tablet. This technology is becoming throw-away cheap and that is heartily appreciated. Once I start using an Android 4.0 PC-on-a-stick then I don’t think I’ll come back to Windows, nor to Apple. Sorry guys, I won’t afford it any more.
Stagnant, without growth. i.e. no momentum.
Familiar. Common. Widely deployed. But no momentum.
If by casual gamers you mean Farmville, then yes.
If by casual gamers you mean the occasional WoW player, then no. Macs aren’t upgradeable, and something that a PC user would see as trivial –replacing a graphics card– is impossible on a Mac.
I could buy a $400 PC and I could live with it for a few years, then upgrade individual pieces as my needs change. Or, I could spent $2000 on a Mac and live with it for about 5-6 years in a one-size-fits-all environment. I’m going to choose the former, because I do have control over what I want. Not to mention that over those 5-6 years unless I drop $400 a year on my PC it is still cheaper than a Mac.
Costs matter, which is why PCs are still around in spite of the technical superiority of the Mac.
As a corollary to the “everyone else is using it” network effect, there is also the “this is what I’ve always used” legacy effect. People and companies don’t just have computers, they have full environments. If you’ve bought a copy of Photoshop for Win XP, then your next computer will probably run Win 7 so that you can still run the software you’ve got, instead of buying a Mac version before you’re ready to upgrade.
Disagree with you. I’ve been using a Mac inside my corporate (very, very large corporate) headquarters for 3 years now, with virtually no problems. There are only two problems, one of which is beyond my IT department’s control, and one is specifically because my IT department is, to put it mildly, insane.
The first issue is “LiveMeeting”. Still need a PC for that (so I use a virtual machine). But that is going bye-bye now that we are moving to Lync. I have had several meetings on Lync using the Mac to present, and it has been fine.
The other issue (my IT department being insane) is because during the rush to make everything work on IE (back when everything had to be standardized) there are some web apps that ONLY work on IE (they only recently started working on anything but IE6). And there are some other apps that, if they just tested it, would work because they have stupid bugs. And it isn’t really the Mac that is the wildcard here. People on PCs who want to use Firefox or Chrome also complain about this stuff.
The myth that Macs can’t work in enterprise is just that… a myth. It was generally true when Apple switched over to IA processors, but it is almost completely irrelevant now, and with juuuuust a little bit of IT effort, the problem could go away completely.
You nailed it.
I work for a large corporation with the same issues… but shockingly they’ve recognized them and are working to fix them. First, they gave all the salespeople iPads. Then they started updating all the sites to work across browsers. Next, Microsoft apparently pulled the plug on LiveMeeting support (which never worked on iPads anyway) and they’re moving to a cross-platform service.
So there is hope.
And the myth that Macs are better than PCs is not just a myth in the year 2012?
I have to disagree with you on this tablet thing, because Apple has had the opportunity to define this market, and it has set a bar that others cannot get to price and quality wise.
Nobody can get a display as bright and beautiful as the iPad display. Just… can’t… get it. And even if they could get something close, they can’t get it for the kind of prices Apple is able to get.
Same is true for a lot of other components.
It is also true of their PCs, but people are used to using crap for PCs, so they don’t notice. For example, I cannot use a PC anymore not because of Windows necessarily, but because any laptop I use that is a PC has me constantly looking to see how to make the screen brighter, until I realize that this is how bright the screen will *ever* be. People are used to crappy trackpads on their laptops, but after using something as high quality as what is on the MBP, I simply lose my mind using a PC trackpad. But since those two things are what people are used to, they are OK with it. They don’t know what they are missing.
But most people know what an iPad looks and feels like now. The smoothness, the sharp displays, the accurate touch controls, etc.
Google and Microsoft might think that the enterprise is a “blind spot” of Apple’s, but that was the same complaint about the iPhone, and it didn’t matter. Apple doesn’t have to cater to the whims of some dipsh*t IT guy. The executives will demand to be able to use the iPad, and that will be that.
Additionally, tablets are just different things. The fact that I can’t do Excel on my iPad doesn’t bother me… AT ALL. And it doesn’t bother anybody else I know. You need to use Excel, fire up your laptop. The tablet is a companion device. A > $1K tablet from Microsoft is a joke.
You can’t (and shouldn’t) try to make all things for all people. There are no vehicles that can tow your boat, haul your family to soccer practice, gets 45 MPG, and goes 0 to 60 in 4 seconds. You have to make tradeoffs. If you try to build a tablet that is also a PC, you get a crummy tablet (too thick and too heavy with too crummy a battery life) and a crummy laptop (the detachable keyboard and kickstand means I can’t use it on my lap, and the screen is so small and can’t do real productivity work ANYWAY).
(now let the flames begin about how bright displays are irrelevant, i’m just a fanboi, and how you really do want a crummy tablet that also runs Excel…)
Ditto. Your comparison with the vehicles is spot on. I also it when talking about enterprise application software capabilities.
I am confident it will be matter of 1-2 years and Apple laptops and tablets will be all over the place in the corporate world. The iPhones are already there…
True. That’s why Microsoft is using WinRT on ARM tablets and Windows 8 on the PC-ultrabook Pro model. It’s just that we’re not used to a cool looking fully PC-cabable “tablet-like” form factor. Technology marches on.
Apple is completely ignoring the enterprise market (to their detriment) in two important places: Active Directory and Exchange Server.
I run a small IT service company and I work with many small businesses (mostly 5-30 employees). I never, ever, consider recommending Apple products for them. It’s not that I don’t like Apple or don’t know their technology — I own 3 Macs and an iPhone, been using OS X since 10.2. The problem is enterprise integration. OS X Server will do centralized authentication through LDAP, similar to Active Directory, but it won’t do Group Policy, Roaming Profiles or even Redirected Folders. OS X clients will connect to Active Directory (if you use some *serious* Kung Fu) but those other pieces are still missing.
When I setup a company network, I always go for full roaming profiles because it makes the workstations interchangeable. PC won’t boot? No problem! Just swap in a spare, log in and get back to work (at most, reset your default printer). I can diagnose and repair the old PC when I have time, then put it on the shelf as a spare. Businesses LOVE this because downtime is so incredibly small — I can guide them through this process over the phone.
Exchange Server is a monster pain in the butt in almost every way, but you just can’t duplicate its features with anything else. It’s not that Exchange is the leader, it’s the ONLY one in the market. Sure, you can try ol’ GroupWare or Domino if you’re completely masochistic or you can try Google Apps if you’ve got full-time IT staff and very patient (or savvy) users, but Outlook is made to work with Exchange and it doesn’t like anything else. Group calendaring, shared contacts, public folders, delegated mailboxes, resource scheduling (rooms/projectors), etc. Plus the comfort of knowing all your data is on-site and not subject to the whims/mistakes of Big Brother. You can preach about the benefits of the cloud until you’re blue in the face, but online-only makes people nervous. Small business owners want to feel safe (even if they’re not), so critical stuff like email has to happen under their roof, period.
If Apple would put out a product like Windows Small Business Server (Active Directory, DHCP, DNS, Exchange, Sharepoint, VPN hosting, Outlook Web Access and Remote Web Workplace), they’d seriously wound one of Microsoft’s two cash cows in a single blow. Make it interoperable with AD/Exchange so existing PCs with Outlook can use it — the cow is dead.
But Mr. Jobs didn’t care about the enterprise market and loved the cloud, so I’m not going to hold my breath for a useful OS X Server product. Too bad, because the opportunity is HUGE and they’re just handing it to Google.
You know, I like Macs too, and I’ve managed them in mixed networks before without a lot of problems… but I have to agree with you. There are some cool capabilities there, and Macs don’t participate in them all. And I really don’t like the idea of putting EVERYTHING out on the cloud. Bad enough fending off attackers when your data is on site. What happens when a cloud gets hacked, and have access to multiple businesses’ info? Not like it hasn’t happened.
I was with you up to the end, but your last bit veered off the mark.
Jobs didn’t love the cloud per se, he loved the total control of the user’s media. He loved the toll gates to the apps, to the user-generated content, to the third party revenues. If he could have gotten that boost from local disk or floppy disks he’d have been there, but the cloud offered the greatest lock-in. You might have been saying that, but control was the goal and cloud was merely the means.
When approaching the world from a peculiar perspective you do have to accept some opportunity costs, and Apple has chosen control of users over enterprise revenues. If you open the platform enough to do a good job on network security and AD integration and expose more of the system to third parties you’re just asking for trouble on the consumer side, and they’re baling cash from that market. Given how poorly they compare on price and software support for staples like Project and many non-web-based development tools, there’s very little reason for them to put the golden goose in harm’s way. Corporate IT can’t support Macs without virtual Windows instances on the desktop, and to change things enough in general to make a difference there puts many other aspects of the platform at risk.
Frankly the last iteration of OS X seemed to push the computer OS in the direction of the iOS rather than move it toward the corporate market: a simpler interface, an app store, etc. (Early version of Win8 had the same thought.) If anything Apple seems to be distancing themselves intentionally and forcing a showdown in boardrooms between execs and users who want the cool vs bean counters and traditional IT support staff and vendors who have software to run and budgets to meet. It worked on the phone and it’ll probably work on the pads and they really don’t care about anything larger because it’s expensive to develop and support and the margins are terrible.
There really is a hole in the Mac product range. You’ve got the Mac mini, or the Mac all-in-one. Then the Mac Pros. But little in between. Nothing where you could buy a three box system and then upgrade it later. Nothing for a corporate environment.
The best processors for a single user is in the MacBook Pros, not a desktop format.
Given that there’s going to be an OS change with Windows 8, and not many are looking forward to this from what I can tell, it’s the right time for Apple to take advantage. The biggest problem, however, is the software applications tha only run on Windows boxes.
Preach it. I’ve been hoping for a Medium Mac (well done) for some time, but I’m beginning to lose heart. It’s beginning to feel like Apple is intentionally neglecting the desktop and are putting all the eggs in the iOS basket. That’s probably okay in the short term, but it may be short-sighted. They really do need an offering in between Mac Mini and Mac Pro. iMac isn’t what I’m looking for.
What many don’t see (or refuse to see) is that the desktop computer is on it’s way out. And in the future the laptop will go away as well.
Look back: when we were using terminals, we laughed when desktop PCs entered the arena. At some point we took them serious and it became unthinkable they would go away. Then laptops came and everybody thought they were too expensive and not powerful enough. Again wrong. Then smartphone came: considered toys initially. Some folks run there whole business just using a smartphone: hardly a toy. The same will happen with pads. Won’t be long and all major business software vendors will make their apps run with any standards compliant browser. You must be very short-sighted not to see this coming.
I wouldn’t say that desktops are going to die, I’m writing this reply on a “desktop” (although technically it’s under the desk). But I do take your point as at home I do have a desktop (again, below the desk) but I put the notebooks there instead!
The big screen in the office is unbeatable. And when I’m doing CAD work that’s what I need. When I’m writing reports, that’s what I want. Writing software, I do on the notebooks, but I really should do this on a desktop. But I like the portability.
We still need desktops, but you’re it’s no longer the popular choice for the home.
Desktops will die when those Google Glasses get perfected.
I think the question of the future of the desktop is a valid concern. For many hobbyists, gamers, and scientists, desktop computers pack the power of a super computer in a small space – and do it cheaply (I can build a nice high end gaming rig for under $1200 USD). For myself, as a developer and gamer – not having access to computing power, for quick turn around on compiling runs, and real-time/near-real-time simulations they enable is a bleak future.
If the market for the peripheral devices and machines dries up – then not only will hard core gamers be effected, but anyone who wants to do software development, or number crunching computations for various purposes, or even to host things on their own network. DIY in that context will dry up.
My concern is that the small guy – the hobbyist, or small business won’t be able to afford the gear they’ve benefited from in the past – and thus the innovation they have fostered will dry up – thus leaving various areas (such as FPS and other high performance immersive gaming, multimedia – such as 3D rendering and simulation development, software development and scientific computing) in the hands of large companies.
As for myself, I won’t be able to afford a $10,000 server to do what I do today for 1/10 that price. On the other hand, I’ve also rejected the idea of a ‘cloud’ solution – on the grounds of availability, performance and security.
When my wife and I got iPads, you know what we stopped using? The Acer laptop. Gave it to the kid. The desktops are more powerful, and the iPads are more mobile.
Something I’ve missed in the Surface announcement and subsequent ruminations is the topic of pricing for the Office suite. Does anyone know what Microsoft’s strategy is ? Will Office come included with the tablet ? Will they sell it (a la Apple’s iWorks) as individual apps for around $10? Or will they protect the cash cow that is Microsoft Office and price licenses they same way the do for Windows ? If they go that route, then the total cost is going to far exceed that of an iPad (or a Google tablet). On the other hand, if they keep the software prices low, the Office division would take a huge loss should the tablet be wildly successful. Same is true for the Windows team, I suppose.
I understand the low-end Microsoft Tablet will come with Office bundled. Well, maybe not in Europe, where the anti trust people may frown on it.
The Windows RT tablet will come with Microsoft Office for Mobile, which currently comes on Windows Phone. Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Outlook and OneNote. All work very well in the phone format, although I really want to have to sit somewhere and create complex documents with them. Simple edits are quick and easy. Outlook and OneNote work exceptionally well.
On the Windows 8 Pro tablet, you will have your choice of Office 365 on the web or the traditional thick Office clients. It’s real Windows, so Office will work on it as expected.
Microsoft has not announced a price yet.
Note that Apple announces products with prices and starts selling them before the presentation is over.
I guess what everyone seems to be forgetting is the fact that Apple is making far more profit than all of these guys put together today. That being said, do they really have an enterprise problem? Most people do not purchase a post-PC device based on their current PC. More than half of all iPad owners have never owned an Apple product. I’d say that pretty much the network and legacy effect mentioned here. There is a network effect at work here and it’s the “Everyone seems to adore their Apple products, I want one too” effect. Based on the customer satisfaction stats, I’d say those people are incredibly happy promotors.
” iPads suck for productivity apps like Office. ” Totally disagree. WIth apps like Documents To Go having been available for handhelds for years, as well as Apple’s iWork apps, and even the free and surprisingly Microsoft-like OnCloud, Microsoft is still nowhere to bee seen.
These apps all work extremely well on handhelds, unless you need to create some macro-filled, computationally complex spreadsheet for the derivatives market. Yes, size may matter if you’re using Docs To Go or Numbers on an iPhone or Docs To Go on an Android device, but you can get the job done.
And did I mention that Microsoft STILL has no product for the handheld market years after they’ve been available way back to the Palm Pilot days?
There’s a graphical spoof of the Microsot toolbar floating around the Internets and if you’ve seen it it isn’t too much of a strecth to beleive Microsoft would actually implement its typical bloatware on a small device. And price it at $199 for the iPad version.
The Office-like apps available on handheld devices work just fine. They work very well on the iPad. The suckage will occur when productivity applications – specifically Office – actually show up on the Microsoft device – when it actually shows up. If it actually shows up. And if it works…
Completely agree with you here. You stole my thunder with the Office compatible apps that I have used – quite enjoyably – since the 1st iPad. In fact, with a Bluetooth keyboard I can easily create a fairly complex spreadsheet and/or intricately formatted document. The apps allow those documents to sync with your computer making it extremely easy to edit the document/spreadsheet when you are no longer on-the-go. Furthermore, I find it so short-sided when people suggest that Office is the only “productivity” software known to mankind. Just because “Office” is not available in the app store, the iPad “sucks at productivity?” Please. Apps like the aforementioned DocsToGo, Evernote, WebEx, ShowMe, Ignition, GoodReader, and Bento are the most valuable pieces of software I’ve ever used in my professional sales career. When you actually explore the apps available on iPad, you will find it is an incredibly useful AND PRODUCTIVE device. Probably the reason my company deployed the iPad to our 10,000+ strong sales force rather than a Windows machine or another tablet.
I can’t disagree with you more strongly. For writing anything longer or more complicated than a letter or a C+ level freshman essay, or perhaps a rough draft, you need a computer. Period. Exhibit A is the seeming inability of tablets (and god forbid, phones!) to properly check spelling (no offense). Even the implementation of simple things like footnotes and indices fall short on “apps,” while compatibility with specialized reference managers and other essential tools is missing entirely–your fear of macros comes into play here. Lawyers and academics will know what I’m talking about.
PS: I’ve tried all the “productivity” apps, and they really do suck. I never thought anything would make me nostalgic for the age of nagware, but at least that crap was free and only advertised itself. On a more basic level, simply transferring files to/from an iPad makes me want to throw it in the trash–and too few Android OEMs have realized their potential (slight!) advantage here. The Surface will be very compelling to anyone who writes for a living.
+1 I find it painful to go back to Excel once mastering the infinitely more intuitive multitouch interface in Apple’s “Office” suite (Numbers and Pages). Microsoft abolishing the mouse era pull down menus for real estate sucking hieroglyphic tool bars is a joke.
An extra large floppy disk for ‘save’? What the hell is that (asks my niece and the next generation)?
I watched the entire (painful) Surface presentation and was perplexed by the entire thing.
First of all ‘Surface’ seems to be a solution to a problem that does not exist. The iPad is successful because it is there when a laptop is overkill – that’s the point. Making a tablet like a laptop (keyboard, trackpad, mouse/stylus) therefore is redundant. Ergo, Surface is redundant.
Next, the product was obviously not ready, and crashed during the demo. Office was absent as well as any firm pricing/availability info. Several of the presentation elements felt exactly like an iPad keynote (I actually laughed out loud when they snapped the cover onto the tablet) and the entire thing was a slog to get through. No please, tell me more about the ‘kickstand’….
Predictions: I have no doubt they’ll sell some Sufaces (oh good grief, what an awful name) but not in any meaningful numbers. After an initial rush sales will plummet like John Carter and will take from Google, not Apple. iPad market share will go down 2 points and then rebound. Sales to the colorblind will be brisk. IT depts will buy 3 each for testing, and find Surface has nothing to offer over comparably priced laptops.
Microsoft could have been dethroned if Jobs hadn’t killed the Apple clone market. Whatever happened to BeBox?
Apple would never have survived the competitive pressure. They wouldn’t have survived anyway, if Microsoft hadn’t taken pity on them and injected all that cash. And in hindsight, that was probably a mistake!
The fallacy that never dies.
When Microsoft invested $150 million in Apple stock in 1997, Apple still had $1.2 billion (that’s “billion” with a “B”) in the bank:
http://news.cnet.com/2100-1001-202143.html
It really wasn’t all that much money for either company. What it really amounted to was a settlement to the patent disputes between the two companies that Apple had brought over Microsoft copying some code from QuickTime.
Note that just a few months earlier in 1997 Microsoft had bought WebTV for $425 million. Later that year Microsoft acquired Hotmail for $500 million. In 2007, 10 years later, Microsoft invested $240 million in Facebook. Far from “saving” Facebook this amounted to a mere 1.6% of that company. Just last year Microsoft paid $8.5 billion (that’s again with a “B”) for Skype.
$150 million is only a symbolic amount of money for companies of this size.
“Lun Esex says: The fallacy that never dies.
When Microsoft invested $150 million in Apple stock in 1997, Apple still had $1.2 billion (that’s “billion” with a “B”) in the bank:
http://news.cnet.com/2100-1001-202143.html”
Absolutely correct and the key word is invested. Remember too that Microsoft could not sell their shares for five years—but when they did sell, they still made a handsome profit.
What’s also forgotten is the “undisclosed sum” of money that Microsoft paid to Apple in compensation for patent infringements. That payment was estimated at $150-250 million dollars. Nothing to sneeze at for you and me but chump change to Microsoft then and now.
Essentially, Microsoft needed Apple to remain viable as the heat was rising in the anti-trust suits so it wasn’t an altruistic move on Microsoft’s behalf.
It wasn’t the investment that saved Apple, it was the commitment by Microsoft to continuing Office for Mac.
Forgive me for going back 8 months or so. Bob, you indicated plans to buy a Fire for each son. As I recall, there was also a pretty strong indication that you would let us know how things worked out.
How did it go? If not, why not?
Might your experience color your view of the MS / Google tablets? Some of the blog sphere seem to think that their products are most likely to impact the Fire.
I do agree that Apple has the best software for PCs now. They’ve leveraged Unix with a nice UI and Microsoft has been feature-following. When corporations did not upgrade to Vista that should have been a message to Microsoft, but I suspect they’ve blown that off since Windows 7 had the required performance improvements needed for businesses to adopt it.
The problem for Apple is the entrenched legacy apps at all businesses of some size that run on Windows. It’s not just the cost of the software, but the familiarity it has with the workers and even managements.
I still see Microsoft Surface tablets as a totally defensive move. I wouldn’t be surprised to see many more iPads sold into the enterprise using HTML5-style enterprise apps.
It is my guess neither Google or Microsoft WANT to be in the consumer electronics business. Perhaps there is a slightly different plan underway.
What has made Android successful is the fact one company, Google invested a lot of R&D in it. Everyone who uses Android in their products benefit from Google’s contribution.
The same thing could be underway with hardware by Microsoft and Google. I believe they are making a serious investment in the design of their respective hardware platforms. When it is complete the could give, license, or sell the design to others. Firms like Sony, Samsung, and others would then be able to produce quality products by starting with a known good design, a good reference platform.
There’s a lot of Microsoft-only companies out there that would love to have a Microsoft-Only tablet. I can think of a few retail chains who would love to give every associate on the floor a tablet device to provide customers with product information and even sell the customer the product right on the floor. Until now, there was nothing available. This alone could become a solid niche market.
I’m not so sure Microsoft is going to have much trouble building them as people have speculated here and elsewhere. Microsoft makes the xbox and all of the peripherals, so I am sure they will figure out a way to build a tablet and make it competitive.
Last, I am really hoping Microsoft and Google can clean Apple’s clock in the tablet market. I’m not anti-apple or pro-ms, I just really feel it would be god for the consumer and for competition to have three or more viable competitors in the market. All three companies have rather unfriendly customer policies. Maybe if all three were competing with each other, that would change.
Sorry, but if all the MS tablet or Google tablet needed was the ability to run Office or OpenOffice, it wouldn’t have taken MS 30 months to come up with a non-working prototype of a tablet and Android tablets would have actually been a success in the last two years.
This was actually the FLAW in MS thinking for the last decade. They thought that if their new gizmo (tablet, phone, watch, TV set top box, electric dog polisher) simply runs Windows/Office, it would be an instant hit. They thot that major issues like size, price, battery life, weight and usability were irrelevant.
Windows – Office compatibility guarantees nothing outside of the PC space.
Imagine you’re in IT. Half of your mobile workforce needs to read (and answer) dozens of emails per day while on the road, and that’s pretty much all they need to do. I do appreciate Apple and Google, but a light and affordable Outlook+Excel machine with a keyboard is a no brainer here. In business parlance, none of the iPad’s “core competencies” are worth its $500 price tag to an IT office.
Now, this comes with a few expectations: 1. The Surface works. 2. It’s not as much as a laptop. 3. Your company has an Active Directory domain with Exchange (Windows RT integration with group policies would be nice as well.)
There is no way Surface will cost less than a low end laptop.
“Both Microsoft and Google can compete at around the same price as Apple (for the WindowsRT and Android versions) but no less.” Aren’t you forgetting the rather substantial “Apple tax”? My guess is all the companies making tablets on ARM (except Amazon’s Kindle Fire) want to be competitive with an iPad and price their devices accordingly, hoping to receive the “tablet tax” in profits. The problem is they offer little more and often much less than an iPad. Microsoft has the infrastructure and products people want in place, so when they tack on the “Apple-like tablet tax” they will be willing to pay it. By reducing this tax, they can compete as effectively as they like, by making less per unit but more in volume.
You really think that if competitors could make the same hardware as Apple’s iPads and undercut them on price in order to gain market share they wouldn’t already be doing it?
The “Apple tax” no longer applies in mobile hardware. A flagship smart phone of any brand (Samsung Galaxy Nexus or III, HTC OneX, Apple iPhone 4S) costs the same $200-$300 on-contract at introduction in the U.S., or $650-$700 off-contract. Then as newer models come out they ALL get cheaper, *including* the iPhone, which is $99 on-contract for the previous generation, and free on-contract for the oldest available one.
Similarly, tablets all start at “around” $500, like the iPad. The Motorola Xoom, HP TouchPad, Asus Transformer, Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1, and even the 7″ screen BlackBerry PlayBook all came out costing the same or MORE than the iPad. Was anyone crying about a “Motorola tax” when the Xoom first came out at $800? No, of course not.
Now the iPad 2 is available starting at $400. Where’s the other name brand 10″ tablets with comparable quality and features that beat that price? And I don’t mean some some cheap Chinese knockoffs, I mean something that an actual consumer might see in Best Buy, Sam’s Club, etc.
To get a name brand tablet that’s cheaper than an iPad 2 now you have to go down to the stripped down 7″ tablets like the Kindle Fire, Nook Tablet, or heavily discounted BlackBerry PlayBook. Now while those may be all well and good enough for some people, they simply aren’t in the same category, so it’s really apples and oranges to use them to make up comparisons and bring up any theoretical “Apple tax.”
Indeed. The reason Apple gets more profit from the tablet market (and phone market) is the combination of the Apple tax (premium price for integration+design) and their lowered manufacturing costs from pre-ordering massive component volumes years in advance.
Apple’s higher profit not only fattens their coffers, but also gives them more leeway than anyone else in the event of a price war. Even if MS and Google sold their tablets at cost, Apple could match the price and still make a profit. They would risk losing the Apple Halo Effect by doing so, but it’s an option. Apple has weapons no one else has.
Keep in mind that MS makes 5-10 bucks from every Google tablet because of their patent settlement — although at this point MS probably wants market share much more than money. Also, remember that Google doesn’t care about hardware or Android profits as long as the mobile market isn’t controlled by one company that could hurt Search. Their advantage/disadvantage is that they have different motives than Apple (hardware company) or MS (software company).
Bob could have written on Microsoft’s three screens vision. Or on their highly modern Metro UI, with the all important Contracts mechanism. On their multi method input strategy; keyboard+mouse+touch+gesture. On their DirectX support on all devices. On Smart Glasses as vision for future tv and media consumption. But no, Bob just calls it an Office machine and that’s it.
When was the last time Microsoft did anything even remotely innovative? Or launched a product that wasn’t a complete failure? I guess you could say the Xbox but that’s a stretch…and it was what, 10 years ago?
Maybe this will be their once-in-a-decade “success”… but based on their track record over the last, oh, 15 years, I’m pretty confident that Microsoft will screw this up. They will release it and it will be forgotten within 6 months.
In 3 more generations tablets are easily going to have ehough piwer to replace desktops for 90% of people. Because of this, Microsoft had to do something, but their response is kind of … meh. I don’t want a tablet with a full version of Windows and all its vulnerability of spyware and its tendency to accumulate crapware and its frequent painfully slow updates.
In 3 more generations tablets are easily going to have ehough power to replace desktops for 90% of people. Because of this, Microsoft had to do something, but their response is kind of … meh. I don’t want a tablet with a full version of Windows and all its vulnerability of spyware and its tendency to accumulate crapware and its frequent painfully slow updates.
As a teacher, I’d like to throw my .02¢ in. Schools are dropping their Microsoft Office Licenses in an effort to save money and moving to Googledocs… OR, if their an Apple School, iWork. As schools move to a 1:1 with iPads, iWork for $30 isn’t bad or $20 for QuickOffice Pro… Now this could/will change when Office comes to the iPad – but cost will definitely be a factor there – however most schools & Colleges would like to use Googledocs to save those monies X hundreds or thousands of devices.
Now, the problem is Googledocs is a pain in the ass to use on an iPad. What is sad is that it DID use to run smoothly on the iPad. Over the last 6-8 months it’s become less user friendly. Not only is it a problem for teachers, but the students are learning to HATE Googledocs.
So, when Google releases a new Tablet that does run Googledocs smoothly will education move to it? I don’t know. They won’t if that’s the only advantage over the iPad IMHO.
On a side note, I require my students to do all of their research papers/projects be done on Googledocs for one reason. Not that I can keep on eye on their progress when they share it with me and make comments. No, since Googledocs, I no longer accept any excuses “My computer crashed… It was on my jump drive when I left this morning… My printer wouldn’t work… It was on my floppy, but now it’s not…” Google doesn’t lose anything…
Hwy, Teach — there’s no “their” there, it should be “they’re”. ^-^
I wonder if you happened to watch the webcasts of both the Surface and Windows Phone 8 introduction? I am amazed at how truly excited, creative and exacting the team is. Like Woz said recently when he tried Windows Phone that it is almost as if Steve Jobs himself had become reincarnated at Microsof. I am blown away by WP running on my Lumia 900 after my iPhone died. I got it because it was free and planning to make out until iPhone 5. Now I could not be persuaded to go back after seeing the many thoughtful things in the OS and the pure delight. I feel that apple is just holding on to its past innovations and not really innovating. Unless, they will break the mold on OS11 in a couple years.
You and the other 38 people who use Windows Phone should get together and form a club. In case you hadn’t noticed, Windows Phone is singlehandedly murdering Nokia, which is setting a record for largest company destroyed in the shortest amount of time.
One point that is easily missed by most iPad FanBois…App availability. While there may be 500,000 apps in the iTunes AppStore, many of those are games or simply repetitive. Total up the number and breadth of apps in the greater Windows marketplace (not to be confused with the Windows Phone or Zune Marketplace). I’ve recently been in a restaurant that was using an iPad for it’s POS register. But how many Windows POS apps are on the market? Hundred’s, if not thousands. How many of those companies would move to offer their software on a Windows Pro Surface? They wouldn’t necessarily have to, as it would ‘just work’. This is one very small segmant of the Windows software market. Here’s another: Medical Practice software. My mom was recently in the hospital and at least one of the doctors was followed around by a ‘scribe’ to take casenotes. Using an aging HP Windows tablet. Nearby were other doctors and nurses accessing Windows laptops on wheeled mobile carts or desktop PC’s. All running Windows.
Yes, Apple has tremendous momentum compared to the PC market, but remember how tiny the ecosystem is even with all that momentum in comparison to the global Windows PC marketplace.
In enterprise, in government, and in millions of small businesses around the world, a Windows Pro Surface tablet is a cosmic shift in mobility. And it runs real Windows, which will run a whole bunch of apps already out there. Apple’s closest product is the Air.
Granted, the Windows RT Surface will have a hard slog against the iPad, simply because of Apple’s momentum, but anybody who has actually tried to use a Windows Phone has found out that it is in many ways truly superior to the iPhone, and like the iPhone/iPad duo, Windows RT Surface is just like Windows Phone and will run all the same apps. Hardware OEM’s are about to be turned loose with a few more possible variations on screen resolution and features, including microSD card support (finally!), while Apple has…basically one model of each. Variety is the spice of life.
Oh, and by the way, the Windows Pro Surface will also run all those Windows Phone/Windows RT Surface apps on the Metro UI that is available on command. Something even Apple hasn’t yet officially introduced, although is widely expected at some point.
Isn’t Microsoft primarily a software company?
Two things missing from this article: First, can Microsoft really price the Surface RT to be competitive with the iPad and still turn a profit on device sales? Second, will they pass on releasing an Office Suite for iPad just to push OS/device sales of Windows RT/Surface?
Although contradictory, those two questions really will determine if Microsoft is willing to succeed while conceding that most people really don’t want Windows.
To point #1,Surface is Microsoft’s attempt to compete with iPad, but there’s no way they’ll be able to sell it at the same profit margin (or maybe any profit) that Apple enjoys. They will have to a least meet Apple’s pricing to appeal to consumers. Despite your argument about appealing to corporate types, Microsoft is hell bent on appealing to consumers the same way Apple does. Their whole press event revealing Surface was consumer oriented. The problem is that they already lost the battle with their “Windows Everywhere” strategy. Consumers are tired of Windows – despite Widows 8 being quite a departure from your traditional Windows desktop – the product name still has a certain stigma about it that will leave a bad taste in consumers mouths before the even see the product. See Windows Phone 7’s current marketshare for proof of this. At best, companies will issue Windows RT devices to their employees and you’ll have the same problem RIM did when iPhone came out: employees will have their company issued Surface for corporate crap and their own iPad for their personal lives. But, just like we have now – employees requesting access to corporate services from their iPhone / iPad – you’ll have a number of employees balking at the idea of carrying around a Surface just to access Exchange. IT will be forced to cater to the iPad bearing C-class and see their Surface strategies fail as employees complain about just “making it work” on their i-devices. Hence, Surface is dead on arrival for enterprise.
With point #2, we come to Microsoft’s true conundrum. If Office is really what’s missing from iPad, why not just release an Office Suite for iPad? If your point about productivity being iPad’s weakness is to be believed, it would sell like hotcakes. After all, this is a software problem, not a hardware problem. Hell, I can almost guarantee you that Microsoft has Office for iPad fully developed and ready to go at the drop of a hat. The only thing holding it up is Microsoft’s own arrogance and Ballmer’s obsession that the company’s success has to be tied to the success of the Windows brand.
As an aside: Microsoft positions that keyboard cover to be the differentiator between Surface and iPad for productivity from a hardware perspective. But really, what’s to stop Microsoft from developing that keyboard cover for iPad? Nothing. They could just have easily had made an iPad cover keyboard that snapped into place using Apple’s smart cover magnet design and integrated with iPad via Bluetooth and sold if for $80+ dollars. This cover, plus Office for iPad would have made Microsoft more money with less investment than creating a whole new tablet line for which they’ll have to eat most of the cost per unit for the foreseeable future.
In the end, Windows will lose to Apple’s established supply chain and consumer focused iOS devices. Some other 3rd party will copy the Surface keyboard as a cover for iPad and Mail and iWork will continue to replace Office for on-the-go editing. Under Ballmer, Microsoft will continue to push its Windows strategy to the grave instead of turning the company around TODAY by making a huge profit off the established iPad user base. Although not the point of this comment, this is further proof why Ballmer needs to go. Microsoft is in the tank and instead of taking on the OEMs with their own questionable hardware strategy, Microsoft should have cut their losses and jumped on the iPad bandwagon. If they had, the company’s stock could see a lift as early as this fall rather than making a horrible bet on Surface.
“The only thing holding it up is Microsoft’s own arrogance and Ballmer’s obsession that the company’s success has to be tied to the success of the Windows brand.”
True, MS could have made huge bucks on an iOS/Android Office Suite app sold for $15.99 — but that would have killed Windows Mobile dead because they’d have lost a trump card. It’s one thing to make Office for Mac, which has 5-8% market share, another thing to make it for iOS, which has 45%.
Like you said, MS is a software company. They had to decide whether to become the Office app company or the Windows Mobile company. They bet on Windows. I’m not saying it’s the right decision but it’s not exactly a crazy notion. Market share matters more than easy cash right now. Even if it means passing up and easy software play for a risky hardware play.
Anyway, more competition is good.
Sure, MS is a software company, but it knows a bit about supply chains, try googling Xbox. As far as manufacturing, they can use the same factories that manufacture iPads, it’s all contracted out these days, it’s not rocket science, and again, Xbox.
I’m not a big MS fan, but if your enterprise depends on Exchange, Macs don’t really get the job done. Sure, they’re getting better, but it seems like MS isn’t all that interested in fully supporting Outlook on Mac OS, not too surprising since their life depends on selling Windows. I love my Air, but I see a Surface in my future, once they work the kinks out.
https://www.gamespot.com/news/xbox-360-failure-rate-542-6215590
Right. MS knows supply chain.
Either Microsoft or Google would have to pony up serious (as in gigadollar) money to offset Apple’s supply advantage. Samsung is the only company that even has a chance to compete, since it is such a big part of the supply chain (much to Apple’s chagrin), but Samsung has zero incentive to make life easier for Motorola or Microsoft.
BTW, kudos for the Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto reference.
Consumer technologies such as the iPhone, Android phones and the iPad are changing the enterprise forever, forget about Microsoft Slate it won’t amount to much in the long run. You won’t see any reaction from Apple related to Slate, why should they react to vaporware.
I’d argue there are two components to an ‘Enterprise’ tablet. The first is software yes, but secondly the unit will need to interface to a decent keyboard. It’s all very well getting a tablet to sync with Exchange, but if all corporate emails start getting reduced to ‘txtspeak’ by inadequate software keyboards, then your corporate execs start looking like illiterate teenagers. U kno what i mean?
So yeah, software + keyboard will make it more tempting. But then why not just use a laptop … around we go.
A variety of bluetooth keyboards are available for the iPad. I have no idea why this is considered such a bit deal.
Because it’s a screen cover AND a keyboard that’s always there. Not something extra to carry.
It’s a crappy screen cover AND a crappy keyboard! Twice the fail in one product!
Now THAT’S innovating!
Enjoy your iThings.
The enterprise market for tablets is not as simple as it sounds. Lets look at the whole spectrum of users who comprise the “Enterprise”. A major chunk are the low-level users who do all the basic business processes on your ERP/SOA… There is no way their interface/solution will work on a Tablet with its small screen and lack of keyboard. Also, these are predominantly “Desk” jobs – so the mobility of a Tablet will have no appeal here. Then there will be the various layers of management who do most of their ‘work’ on productivity apps like office suite/email/calendars etc – on their notebooks. Even for these users who have to create presentations, spreadsheets and documents, a tablet will not be sufficient. So it comes down the the top cream of management in an organization where “work” mostly means emails, viewing reports and basically managing relevant data of various projects. Even for these users a tablet will not be able to do everything – printing/scanning, etc as easily as a PC. Having two separate devices will require synchronization and what not. Also for an IT department the average life of a PC is about 4 years,and laptop about 3 years. I’m not really sure how long an average tablet will last. Purely from a purchase standpoint alone tablets will be a very expensive proposition. Also service issues like being able replace memory, disks etc are limitations of tablet – at least for now.
As far as I’m concerned a Tablet is a nice aesthetic device(read toy) which is convenient for reading news/youtube etc. – a device for consumption – which is probably why numerous attempts by Microsoft and other companies in bring the tablet to the market failed.
Just my two cents.
I write this on a Chromebook. It already does Google Apps really fast using an Atom chip. It boots in 8 seconds. I can usually do 99% of my work-week with it and not miss any capability. Every week web capability increases. The very best GTD tool ever is Google Apps with GQueues.
Everything is moving to the cloud including the processing – see Amazon’s Silk browser. Mobile iOS are going away and MS will save the day with WIn 8 across everything on the local device connected to it’s cloud brother or Google with — OS or not; OS faster and more reliable being less complex.
Remember when, prior to its introduction, many were speculating that the iPad was going to be priced closer to $1000? And that netbooks would eat its lunch?
Then, Apple dropped the $499 bomb, people realized that the only two things netbooks had going for them were price, and size, and the rest is history.
Mostly unnoticed at the time was how that price point would make life hard for everyone else.
And yet, people still talk of the “Apple tax” with regard to tablets.
[…] the strategic landscape where Microsoft, Google and Apple will take their next steps in defining how tablets will fit into the business world. Good […]
Microsoft Buys Yammer
Coincidence?
I am one of those unlucky folks that have to carry around 2 smartphones. My personal iPhone, which I really use for everything except email/calendaring, and my corporate Windows phone, which I can use to read my e-mail. All of that just because my company didn’t want to deal with security implications of BYOD.
But here’s the point: I can survive carrying around 2 phones. But will I carry around 2 tablets? I would have to be insane. So I don’t think Steve Jobs had much of a blind spot, unless you call “people who are stuck in the last century” a viable segment. They get unstuck, they retire, they die. But no one joins the club.
People will not carry around two tablets.
They will carry their iPad and leave their Surface at the office in an unlocked drawer hoping someone on the cleaning crew will steal it.
Microsoft and Google are in very different positions.
For Google, making a tablet is about providing a good reference. They already have a good history with the Nexus line of delivering something that shows off the platform and then standing out of the way to let everyone else deliver equivalent or better stuff. Further, there are already a number of Android based tablets out there, so it’s about improving the quality. Expect it to compete very well with the iPad; Google’s phones usually are better spec’d than the iPhones so expect nothing less with a tablet.
Microsoft, however, is fighting tooth and nail for _any_ space in either the phone or tablet markets. People don’t want Windows on their phone or tablet, and Microsoft has a long history of making the phone/tablet inferior to the desktop to try to destroy the mobile space – a history that is quickly coming to an end as they now have to actually compete in the mobile space against 2 major rivals (Apple and Google), and their future depends on getting a good 33% market share or better.
Apple and Google have nailed the market for mobile; they’ll both continue with 90+% of the market. Microsoft is fighting for their life to grab 33% of it, hoping others (e.g. RIM Playbook) will fall into a <2% range so the market is equally split or (better yet) they take over.
Suffice it to say, Microsoft's wet dreams won't come true. And even split among 3 players is the best they'll get but they won't likely come anywhere near that.
Microsoft is “stagnant but dominant”? That’s funny. You can’t be both. Not for long.
Hey Cringely, check this out: https://www.reddit.com/r/microsoft/comments/voelk/articles_like_this_make_me_angry_its_like_the/
[…] ,The coming tablet computer rumble – I, Cringely […]
New Microsoft operating system?
Wake me when they ship version three, service pack one..
BTW there are 3rd party apps for the iPad which give the iPad the ability to create, and edit Word, Excel, Powerpoint and various Open Doc formats. Haven’t tried any yet but several get good reviews on the apps store and are low priced enough not to care if it winds up throw away.
I wonder if anything would change if Apple announced, say in September, Boot Camp for iOS?
Nothing would change since, unlike Windows 8 and all previous versions of Windows, Windows RT will only be included with a device like an ARM tablet [or an ARM phone in the case of Windows RTP (Phone version of RT)]. However there is nothing to stop Apple from making an agreement with Microsoft to include RT on their iOS devices and building in a dual boot app. The problem from Apple’s point of view is they would have to support WinRT on their device; that is, unless Microsoft agrees to take over the support calls related to the WinRT mode which would be difficult since Apple would normally provide the drivers (i.e. the WinRT software that controls the Apple/ARM hardware) as Apple does now for Boot Camp.
“WHEN YOU BUY TABS”
[Sung To The Tune Of “When You’re A Jet”]
When You’re Buy Tabs
And You Choose One Today
You’ve A Choice Between IPad
Gar-bahj & Crap-pay !
There’s Only One
And You Know What That Is ….
It’s The Tab That Is Fun
‘Cause Ev’ry KnockOff Tab Is
A FAIL In eBiz !
OK, so I ain’t Sondheim ….
I’m like the guy in the painting in “GoodFellas” — “Whaddya want from *me*?”
Having seen Microsoft in action again and again, I can safely predict they will not deliver a competitive tablet. They simply CANNOT EXECUTE. Everything there takes 10x longer than it should and the design process is simply a top-down joke.
Plus, their concept of a tablet is a laptop with a touch screen. People who actually want a tablet won’t be able to get one. Why? Microsoft knows best (or rather they arrogantly think they do).
How many of you supposedly knowledgeable geeks realize this… windows 8/7/6 is really just windows 2000 with the icons moved around and a few minor feature additions. That’s all this monster is capable of doing in a 2-year product cycle — putting a different color lipstick on the old pig.
Win RT is the iPad equivalent (but with a keyboard for a screen cover). Windows 8 is the ultrabook and Windows Phone 8 is the phone. True, they share similar interfaces, fine with me. It’s also true that Windows 8 is based on older technology to maintain compatibility with tons of existing software. Sort of like OSX and Linux are based on Unix from the 70s.
People do not buy PCs because of price because they’re inferior. I own an iPhone, Mac mini media server and a Mac book pro and I can undoubtedly say the Mac book pro is the biggest piece of over priced crap I have, it’s slow, Mac os crashes and hangs and boot camp drivers are rubbish. The iPhone is great though.
That said my wife just bought a Nokia Lumia 900 and it’s awesome and yea I know but she didn’t want to wait to windows 8.
Don’t underestimate the windows 8 tablets and phones over the next few years.
I personally feel that there would be three distinct niches in the tablet categories. And Apple would probably remain a leader in terms of profit due to their large margins but they would lose significant market share in terms of number of tablets sold. Windows tablets including both Surface as well as third party tablets would make the biggest dent in the decline of iPad. Windows tablets are more practical and work friendly compared to both iOS and Android ones. I would not be surprised if powerful Windows tablets like the Surface Pro even makes a dent in the PC market in the long run. Android tablets would become the leader in terms of sales in the long run as they would be affordable for everyone. Even now, people with iPad have adopted Nexus 7 as their secondary tablet (in some cases, people have gradually started using Nexus 7 as their primary tablet instead of iPad). So, Apple would lose out a bit but the other two would definitely gain in the near future. If Windows tablets are made comparable to Android ones (or maybe $50 or so more) they will steal the whole market from everyone else.
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