When I started this gig in September, 1987 Ronald Reagan was President, there was no commercial Internet, Oprah had been on the air for less than a year, and a fairly powerful PC was an IBM PC AT running at 8 MHz. In September that will have been 25 years and I think 25 years is probably enough.
That’s 1300 consecutive weeks without a break. Honest to God, I haven’t missed a week since 1987. How many people can say that? With more than two million words in print, most of them still available online, it’s like having a time card the entire world can check. No cheating allowed.
I’m not saying exactly when the end will come, just that it will be this year sometime after September. And I have plenty to do between now and then including a couple TV projects, books, a surprise or two, as well as at least a couple hundred more columns.
Nor will I disappear completely even then. But I’d like to make some changes in my life, like build a boat with my kids and maybe walk the Earth.
Besides, it’s better to quit while you’re ahead, if only barely.
I’ll miss you and your insights! Please do an occasional PBS gig!
Hope you’re healthy.
Same here; love the image though.
I’ve always found the way your mind works very helpful. I am sure its informed by a lot of non-public information, but in the end, I always felt like anyone could have come to the same conclusions.
I applaud your sentiment and wish you the best.
I second that!!
You step through the door to the next season of your life … it works for the active mind.
Hope this is one of your predictions that you get wrong. (If not, thanks for the thought provoking words.)
No, it’s better to quit when you’re a whole body.
Thanks for everything.
I have been reading your work since Accidental Empires was first published. Great style, great insight and a huge capacity for synthesis of possible outcomes. I certainly don’t think it has been as easy as Matt’s words might suggest.
I will look forward to the rest of the submissions with more interest and added poignancy.
Good luck and thanks for all the thought provoking columns over the years. Your projects with your kids should be very rewarding.
I grew up with Triumph of the Nerds and Accidental Empire. While I probably would’ve gone into tech regardless, those things drove my desire to head west and become part of The Valley.
I still think you’re crazy and are wrong about half the time, but you made some great things over years and have had an impact on my life.
Thanks for all the fish!
Life for me is framed by two bookends – at one end my first ‘hello world!’ basic program on an Apple][, and most recently the passing of Steve Jobs and the swirling changes that he left us with – questioning the continued survival of general purpose personal computing platforms in the midst of a mobile computing revolution.
I’m feeling a bit out of sorts – what I once assumed was solid bedrock is really a shifting mound of sand, and the camel is pulling me farther and farther outside of my comfort zone – off the beaten path of the trade routes and oases into uncharted territory. Your departure only adds to this sense that the compass is beginning to spin.
While the younger me would have probably wandered aimlessly – and the slightly older me would have probably panicked – the older me is getting a sense of how this game of life should be played – with your skin in the game. The changes that are happening have opportunity written all over them – and I would urge my colleagues to take this opportunity to expand their comfort zones, take up the mantles left by the previous generation and help guide us smartly through this next period of profound change – so we arrive on the shore of whatever new land we are creating in one piece.
Bob – You’ve been an inspiration and source of all good bits for me and I know many others – thank you for that.
Noooooooo!!!!!
Say it ain’t so! 🙁 I discovered your writing in 1995 and have looked forward to your weekly missives ever since. You will be missed, sir.
Having said that, enjoy walking the Earth. It’s a beautiful place.
You feed my passion for tecnology since I was very young.
I wonder how many people turned into geeks with you showing their way.
Good luck!
Good for you!!! Even though I will greatly miss your regular postings. Wishing you all the best from someone who actually remembers reading you in hardcopy.
Wow, that’s gonna leave a hole – you’ve been a staple since the InfoWorld days… maybe it’s a sign that I should chuck it in as well!
C
Always leave them wanting more.
Ten years, on and off, a follower and fan. Thanks for all, Bob, and for little Chase whom we all never will forget, either.
Talk about leaving the big one for last. I for one still have my VHS tapes of when nerds was on tv in Australia, and have been a fan ever since.
Thanks for the insight you’ve shared.
Ooh Cringe!
As a posted by myself on that great oracle of wisdom (slashdot.org) your 2 pbs docs Triumph of the Nerds and Nerds 2.0.1 were the best the description of the story of the PC industry/Internet that I have ever seen. Please do a “Nerds 21st Century” before you sign off.
AND please please please bring back the audio for every column. Me needs it ;-))
Z
Dammit!
Fine, it’s fine. Not really but okay.
Best wishes on your path and all the best to you and your family.
The technology world, well, at least the people that follow it, will not be the same without you.
We’ll miss you, Bob. It’s been a long road, and mostly a good one. And, er, well, just one question… Do we ever get to find out who the super secret guest of the next episode of NerdTV was supposed to be?
Bob, please don’t go!
Been reading your column for ~10 years.
The Nerds series is truly great – even watching it 15 years later.
Have not read the book yet, but plan to.
PS: The pedantic me (yes, I know,…) says there about a couple hundred days till September, so if you really want to write a couple hundred columns till then that’s a column each and every day, but as history proves your frequency till now was a bit lower…
Frankly, building a boat with your kids is far better use of time than the internet. Have fun and happy sailing!
You will be missed. Have fun!
Nooo!!!! You don’t have to feel the need to write weekly or else pack it all in. You should still write once in a while when you feel you have something to say (and I’ll be checking you in my bookmarks). You still have much to offer your audience so consider this a plea to only semi-retire. You’re simply too young to disappear into the sunset yet…
Booo!
– reader since 1980’s Infoworld
Hard to admit, but I certainly remember the InfoWorld days…. great insight back then, even got in trouble with some vendors because I drank the Cringe “Kool-aid”.
Wish the best as you move to the next chapter of life.
Love the “walk the earth” part. I want to walk around Tip of Wales – inn to inn, over the stiles. Have to wait till I am a wee bit ahead though’. Good luck man! Try to transition BEFORE September!
Thanks for all your thoughts. Good luck.
Bummer – I’ll really miss your work.
Hey….. This isn’t a coverup story is it? Is it really *you* who will take the helm at Microsoft?!?!? 😉
Enjoy yourself.
I started reading you back at InfoWorld in the late ’80s. I lost you for a while til a Slashdot article picked you up aiming a Pringles can down into the valley.
I’ve enjoyed the run. Hope you have, too.
Walk the Earth? That’s just Plane Crazy – why not get a bike, dude? I look forward to your travel blogs!
I’m inspired to update my blog more than once every six weeks.
enjoy the walk………………………..
… Walk the Earth, they have a name for the Jules, it’s called a bum!
Life is to be lived, enjoy. Be happy. You’ll be missed.
But with that said, my prediction: Anyone who goes 25 years without missing a week, is either an addict or it’s simply a part of who you are. And you have to be you to be happy, it’s all about balance.
You’ll be back. We hope.
I have been a reader since the Infoworld days. Speaking of which I never did hear what happened to the Golden Hawk you rolled… Anyway you deserve to do what you want to do. But my guess is you will find it hard to give up the soapbox. Thanks for all your hard work and the best of luck to you.
Boating with the family is good. We have lots of water around here. If your travels return here, uncle John will watch your kids so you and Mary Alyce can have some quality time together.
Walk the Earth? Is this a Forrest Gump thing? Let me suggest bicycling or better yet this… I will build a bicycle powered rickshaw. It will seat you and your wife. It will be propelled by three bicycles, one for each of your boys.
…John
Every new beginning comes from some other beginning’s end. Bob, it has been a great joy reading your column. Have fun building the boat. Take some time and do some painting, walking, thinking and maybe taking a trip into Space. You never know what the future holds. Good luck.
Well, September’s a long way off, so I won’t get all weepy-eyed now, but I second and third the feelings expressed above.I read Accidental Empires the year it came out and have been following this column/blog/thing since it began at PBS.org. I don’t know how I’ll stay on top of the tech world while you’re building boats and (maybe???) moon rockets.
Hey, how about building the moon rocket with your kids? Shades of Robert A. Heinlein. Have spacesuit, will travel!
Yours is one of only two blogs I always read. And, the only one I always look forwards to reading. I’ll savoir the time to September. After that please do give in to any slight temptation to write an occasional column.
Hope the boat-building goes better than the aeroplane-building!
Let us know how the kids cope with their dad…
Oh, my. Now I’m feeling really old, having read your column in InfoWorld back when it was really you and InfoWorld was something that came on paper. Ah, yes, the good old days when I wrote a whitepaper to submit to my boss’s boss about why every programmer in the organization should have a terminal sitting on his desk (the proposal was rejected).
Now, of course, I have 4 computers in my cube (not even counting my hearing aids, which I have to boot up every morning).
All things, good or bad, eventually come to an end.
When you decide to quit, would you at least tell us your real name? I’ve spend over 20 years wondering about that.
Thanks for the columns, Bob, they are always fun to read.
Incidentally, I found it quite interesting and telling that almost all of the Predictions 2012 were financial/stock/business related rather than tech. Maybe the computer industry really has ‘matured.’
Good luck going forward with kids, wife, and new dog.
In the beginning, there was Cringely, and now he’s leaving. Like all the others writing here, I regret that fact.
Most tech writers are not memorable, but along with Dave Winer, your pieces always inspired a long pause for thought after reading. And sometimes I had to come back and read them again.
One door closes/a new chapter etc.etc.
Thank you, both for your thoughts and the work involved in thinking them.
Please inform us of the progress of the boat building and the walking. You have a great pen, not only for technology stuff, I would love to read how that is going.
Bummer, but good for you. I’ve been a loyal reader for years, and I’ll definitely miss your column. The only thing I’m even slightly bitter about is the loss I took on BRST, but by golly, that whole fiasco was an education in and of itself.
Cheers!
Thank you for your columns, Bob, and I wish you and your family only sunny and happy days ahead, wherever you go and whatever you do.
Slacker
(just kidding)
Thanks
It’ll be a duller Internet without you, don’t go too far away! 🙂
Whatchu mean walk da earth?
Beat me to it with the Pulp Fiction pull!
I guess I came across RXC in the “middle” of his career, with “Triumph of the Nerds” — one of the best documentaries I’ve ever seen, and THE best documentary related to IT. I’ve read every post of The Pulpit and this blog ever since.
Glad to know that at least we’ll have you to kick around for a while longer, at the end of which I will post a proper, weepy goodbye.
You should come up with a final TED talk or something that you can leave for the world to enjoy. The accumulated wisdom of that many decades has to provide you will something to stump about. I’m sure you can arrange it.
That’s a really good idea. A final TED talk would be a fitting finale, though I hope you reconsider and simply post irregularly whenever the mood strikes. There’s no reason to go from publishing weekly to never publishing again. There’s a lot of middle ground you can occupy there.
All in favor:
(the first thought was aaaiiieeee! thanks for the memories! and do have fun.)
I second that!
Thirdsies!
First Steve Jobs and now you?
I wish you well and hope to see you pop your head in once in a while.
That’s great news! While I’m sad to lose the weekly insights, I’m happy you’re able to take off and enjoy life with your family. And after your official retirement date, I’ll look forward to seeing you pop up from time to time 😉
At least you have to come back one year from now to let us know how you thought you did on your 2012 predictions. I’m guessing 50%.
Terrible news. 🙁 Thank you for all your insight and wisdom over the years. You will be sorely, sorely missed… and if you ever find yourself on hard times, I’m sure lots of us would jump to buy copies of NerdTV Season 2 via whatever medium you feel is best. 🙂
All the best to you & your family.
Well, what a drag.
I don’t always agree, but always find your stuff novel, interesting, and full of information I didn’t already have.
Are you retiring then? Or just moving on to something different?
Ah, shoot. Your presence will be missed.
Thanks for all the work you put into your articles. Looking forward to your future posts.
Look, the answer is 42. Now get back to writing.
Seriously, thanks for the insight 🙂
I’ve been reading your stuff off and on for 25 years now and will miss your insights. I even used your “Plane Crazy” series as training for young project managers because of the great lessons you demonstrated. I wish you well in your future projects and look forward to seeing what you do next.
I’m going to have to work until at least a week after I’m dead. Why can’t you?
Good question. I turn 59 later this month and can’t really afford to retire, especially with sons ages 5, 7, and 9. But sometimes you just have to go for it, which is the whole reason behind this prediction: if I don’t tell people about it I might not actually do it and then I’m sure the quality of my product would suffer.
It’s the quality of my product that counts to me most of all.
I’m not done working, just almost done with this particular type of work. The next 25 will be spent doing something else.
I am honestly glad to hear it. We will get along without you. 🙂 But you will be missed.
Hope to hear of some of your exploits. Like the walking and building.
Long time reader, first time caller. (By long time, I mean since 1987 Notes From The Field days.)
Your weekly insights will be missed. I’m hopeful that you will not remain silent, however, and I will continue to anticipate and appreciate your future posts and productions. Keep on keepin’ on and happy motoring, on the information superhighway, which is already in progress!
No more predictions after 2012 ?
Nostradamus, The Mayan Calendar, and now Bob.
I migrated to this country in 1986 and soon I found you somewhere. I have followed you ever since. You have no reason to remember me but I even met you when you came by to Kansas City during your startup tour couple of years ago. You will be missed if indeed you are really going to do what you say you plan to do.
I wish you well. I did not know that the Steve Jobs movie finally made you rich enough to retire!
I haven’t seen a penny.
Gadfrey, you too? it’s a plot to make me feel old.
make that a fine wood boat, if you’re going to waste time on a regal scale for memories, goldarn it, steam, bend, and glue your way along. watch out for teak, it’s oily as mackerel, needs mechanical fasteners.
nobody has proved conclusively yet that a balsa raft can sail BACK to South America from the Pacific islands. but legend has it the Tikis did go both ways.
Well dang and congrats, in equal share.
One thing I completely unreasonably request but what the heck – sometime before you quit please can you give suggestions of feeds I can add as replacements? Something of roughly equivalent volume if possible?
Thanks for all the thoughts over the last 5 years or so that I’ve been subscribed.
I’ve been following your work ever since you first acqured your nom de plume. I have to confess that your columns have been my secret weapon for cocktail party conversation. You’ve been the most consistently daring and unconventional of the technology journalists and your unique perspective as someone who was there at the founding of the personal computer industry and who knows many of the major players personally will be sorely missed.
I just hope that you continue to defy the conventional wisdom in whatever endeavors you choose to excel at next.
Regards.
I’ve been reading your columns since 1996 when I was just a wanna-be “IT guy” going back to college looking for a new future. I’ve learned a lot about the industry in general from you but mostly, I think, I learned to dig a little deeper and not fall prey to the hype of the day.
Tally Ho!
Good idea, Bob. Leave the annual predictions to the clueless visionaries. Stick to your bread-n-butter: today’s technology trends and why do we need it and why we don’t, etc, etc…
In memoriam to your past analysis, I still remember your predictions about Veetle and that UWB will become the dominant home wireless tech. I guess you were right except, WiFi 802.11ac will eat UWB’s lunch, it seems. Veetle’s case is still up in the air for the past 2-3 years since your column although I have been a regular viewer since then. What Veetle is lacking is actually what you brought up. Veetle is not actually a BitTorrent-driven media sharing app. Veetle uses your PC’s horsepower to drive the movie you share to everyone else which, as you can expect, kinda sucks all the juice of your PC without much of a benefit for yourself. Unless you are the pragmatic type to share your wealth – in this case your precious uplink Mbps bandwidth which most of us have too throttled to share anyways.
Keep up the tech analysis Bob. I will be looking for more Cringely in 2012 and beyond. Thanks for your efforts.
Well, Bob congratulations to you, but it sucks for us. You have a unique voice and perspective on things that I just haven’t seen anywhere else. You’ve certainly put in your time, however, and building a boat sounds like a lot of fun. Best wishes, and thanks for all the great insights.
Mr. Cringely,
I have read your columns since about 1999. I know it sounds silly, but will all these idiots running around making obscene gestures and typing from press releases, having someone who actually does journalism has been awesome. It has also been nice to read someone with the intellectual courage to make predictions, and the intellectual honesty to admit when you were wrong.
I hope that you can become something different in your journey, and not go away completely. I’d like to hear from you on occasion. Maybe if only to keep the idiots on their toes.
Thank you for being a great journalist and a great voice in my world. I appreciate your wit, your candor, your professionalism, and commitment.
Regards,
Ross Winn
Clearwater Florida
I’d echo the thoughts already expressed in the comments:
sorry to see you stop, as I think your blog has been the most insightful and thought-provoking of the ones I read;
maybe consider posting occasionally;
best to you and yours.
Hopefully this falls into the “I was wrong about that one too” category.
Sad to see you go. What ever happened to the moon landing project you were working on?
He said he wants to walk the Earth, so I guess the Moon project was cancelled 🙂
But seriously – Bob, good luck and have fun!
No prediction about NerdTV 2.0? I own copies of Triumph of the Nerds, Triumph of the Nerds 2.0, and The Transformation Age. I could really use a copy of NerdTV 2.0 to complete the collection.
name of the author. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_X._Cringely
Thank you for sharing you ideas, opinions and even personal insights. I began reading the pulpit long ago and have enjoyed your commentary every since. Along with the other well wishers, I hope with a selfish heart that you will continue to publish in the technology arena so that my day may be enlightened. But I am also happy for you and your decision to move on. Best Wishes to you and your family in the future.
Thanks Bob. It has been great, and thanks for all the fish.
Your writing will be missed . . . but you deserve the break and the time with your sons. Enjoy that walk across the country. It will be priceless. I envy you.
And if you’re looking for something to do after that walk . . . well there’s always writing and documentaries.
Ah damn! I enjoy reading your articles. It’s a shame but I understand. I wish you all the best, all the way from the Netherlands. PS: what ever happened to those compact new hard drives you were working on? And the mission to the moon? I’d love to hear before you quit entirely…
I’ve followed you and a select few writers through print and electronic iterations throughout my career. Your 25 years along side my 35 years. It seems that we’ve both decided to “step down” and direct our energies at nearly the same time.
Thanks for the run. Keeping up with the industry though your perspective has always been a joy.
🙁 Sounds reasonable though. Take care, eh. So did your Start-up Tour just die somewere along the way?
Craps! You need to recommend another columnist to follow then if you’re quitting the game this year. In my daily travels through the tubes I haven’t found a columnist/blogger/author half as entertaining and informative as you are. ya ya ya not sucking up. This blog will be sorely missed. :'(
Well, the least I can say is: thank you.
Your column is a vital reading for me for at least 15 years. One of my most important source of enlightment and wisdom (yes, wisdom) for me.
So, thank you really much for all those wonderful moments reading you Robert.
And yes, Im writing from Brazil. Isnt it amazing how much you reach?
Bob, don’t be a stranger. You will be missed, never forget that.
So then my prediction- you’ll be back :p
You love us too much (and us you).
Walk the Earth… I like that. If you do it please keep us up to date… I would gladly walk a few miles along side you somewhere.
Bob,
You should build a plane with your kids and try to do it in 30 days.
Seems like a great idea, though you’ve provided me a lot of insights and inspiration so I’m glad to hear it won’t be a complete separation from your “work” projects.
I look forward to reading your remaining columns and then hopefully reading about your future endeavors. Cheers!
Start with a subscription to Wooden Boat magazine. Get the Entire
back issues on DVD.
They have a great set of catalogs.
Suggest a small sailboat first. Wind is free!
Good luck and thanks for all the fish!
as a SIDS parent to another, there are certainly more important things in life. very glad you will do your best to do some of those things. and like the others, will very much miss your voice on technology.
i hope you keep this site. and drop occasional thoughts and updates for us fans.
I will always remember the post about the death of your child, and how sorry I felt for you then. Your honesty and integrity is why I always read your articles. And that you’re brave enough to admit when you’re not quite right!
Thank you for your contribution; it’s appreciated.
Thanks for all your columns, insights, rants and truth-telling.
It’s kind of inspirational and sort of flattering to have SOMEONE getting inside the tech industry.
Here’s hoping you pull a Who and make your farewell tour the first of many. I thought that 2011 was a great year for Cringely.com and I really appreciated your insight into the year’s events such as the nuclear disaster in Japan. I had no idea until then that your past experience as a journalist had been so varied, and at the time you were the only writer I was aware of who truly understood the scope of the event.
> Because there’s a cynical cadre of readers who apparently come here mainly
> to get angry and feel superior and those readers are about to accuse me for
> the second or third time this week of having jumped the shark.
I’m going to predict that your prediction is partially wrong. I’m going to predict that you will miss a few weeks. Maybe many weeks. Maybe even months. But that you will continue to blog. And I hope I am right.
Everyone has self doubts that can be fed by viscous feedback, even from strangers. And everyone gets tired of it. And everyone needs a break from it.
So take a break! Take a long one! Then come back, tell us your thoughts and then take another break! If you’re doing what you love, you will do it. If you’re not, you will not do it. But even those of us who do what they love, occasionally take a break from it.
This column does not need a deadline. You are already free. So relax, and come back if and when when you are ready. And thanks for the 25 years.
Yeah, that’s good – finish your predictions with one that you can be real confident is right.
The boat building’s a good transition from work. I took 11 months to finish the first one (small and simple), and just like columns, you can always do one another. So many types, so little time.
ENJOY!
Your column has been one of the high points of my week for a very long time, I will certainly miss them. All of the best to you and your family in your future adventures.
I bet there are woman problems at the bottom of this.
Ahhh a shame, one of the few blogs I enjoy, but walk the earth – it is indeed a magnificent place xxx
Good Luck!
Nooooo!
More seriously. Good luck and hope to hear more from you, even if not on a regular basis.
There is only one thing to say… Thank you, really.
For me, you’ve been as important as many of the current and past IT companies leaders. You’re writing will miss me but I can understand your reasons.
This is by far the worst post you’ve ever written! I mean that of course in the nicest way possible. 🙂
I look forward to what ever is left in the tank. Thanks for the many great insights throughout the years.
I sincerely hope you are kidding. Your columns have always enhanced readers’ IQs and you always have a unique insight and though provoking perspective.
Please say it ain’t so. Why stop at 25? You are only warming up. You know 50 is the new 25 right?
Good God! What a shocker!
For those who don’t know, Mac was my colleague back at InfoWorld in the 1980s and remains my hero to this day. He was brave enough, too, to retire for awhile then reinvent himself. I’m neither smart enough nor strong enough to do that.
Somehow that comment doesn’t match with your years in the writing game or the various TV series…. You certainly got the smarts, it’s just you haven’t met the opportunity yet
NO! Don’t go! Stay around!
Well, OK, if you must go, go ahead.
But promise us one thing — you’ll at least do one final column at the end of 2012 where you give your scorecard on your predictions this year. Even if you won’t give new predictions for 2013, at least close out so we know how well you did. Thanks for all of the discussion.
What kind of boat? A wooden boat?
You’re pissing me off, now.
The people who know better than the rest of us have an obligation to speak and write the truth. Of course you know this and I trust that you will always make yourself heard when necessary. Insight, humor, deep knowledge and wisdom like yours are sorely needed. Do walk the earth but check in every now and then.
Oh Bob! Please figure out a way to stay in touch with us – I have depended on you since about 1987 as my main source of insight into the computer world – just re-read “Accidental Empires” last week, comparing to the present – I feel like we have been fellow computer nuts since the very beginning. Now I’m really old – don’t leave me out here all alone! All the best, however – and thanks for the wonderful time! Sincerely, Barb
I’ll believe it when I see it! (Or at least, *don’t* see it!)
Now lets look at the success of your predictions over recent years. As I recall, it is typically around 50%. So there has to be a fair chance that this one will not come true either 🙂
Bob: Thanks for all the work and the brains and the heart behind it!
Bob:
I’ve read you for years but never commented. This column hit a nerve because I’m currently building a boat and recommend it highly. It is an intellectual challenge and you actually produce something tangible. Good luck.
Oh well, I guess it had to happen eventually. Computers just aren’t as exciting as they used to be. And it’s not such an exclusive club any more. Thing is though, you’ve built up a pretty interesting bunch of groupies here, and I’d be disappointed if I lost the noggin stimulation your columns inspire. Hope you find a way to keep it going, but if not, then good luck and have fun…
My prediction… you’re awesome.
Sir, thank you.
Thank you Mr C for a great resource and entertainment. Have FUN.
Having read your columns/posts for years religiously, and always with much anticipation — I have to say: “thank you”. I may not always agree, but your words are always thought-provoking. Godspeed.
Dear God!
Ok, I haven’t often commented either, but I don’t appreciate shrinkage in my internets.
Seriously, you will be missed. I don’t always agree with you, but even when you appear to be out in left field you’re several orders of magnitude more interesting and entertaining to read than much of the rest of the tech punditry field.
Best of luck in everything!
PS: If there’s one bridge that deserves burning (if anything is even left to burn) it’s Arrington and crew… IMO you should dedicate a weekly column to nuking what little reputation they have for the remainder of your tenure.
Bob, like some others, I hope this prediction is wrong!
But, in my heart, I hope it is right, because it sounds like a wise thing to do for yourself and your family. What a great experience it will be for all of you if you take on something like this!
I’ve been reading your commentary, and that of your readers, since 1997, which isn’t all the way back to 1987, but somehow I didn’t know about you back then. 🙂
All the best and overall, who cares what we all think! Do the best for your family!
Congratulations. Another boomer hits the beach permanently!
If you ever come out to the Least Coast from the Left Coast, look me up for a dinner, maybe in Charleston or Raleigh. With the nuclear, computer and real estate/bankster industries in common, we should have a blast.
P.S. Include a geiger counter in your boat gear. You may need it out there in the Eastern Pacific.
Rich
While the inner me say’s “Noooooooooooooooooooooooooo!”
In reality I can see where a life would be nice and I can’t hold that against you.
Now although we will have a few columns left not sure where the bold predictions and incisive viewpoint will come from as I started following you back in the Infoworld days after you morphed into the ultimate Robert ‘X’ Cringely, and I don;t see any comparable alternative out there.
Having said we will be looking forward to those other projects you mentioned …
73’s from Oz
I’m glad you’re continuing until at least Sept. I think I have been reading whatever you’ve written almost as long as you’ve been writing & have always found it worthwhile. Thanks for it all, & what kind of boat?
[…] everyone is thrilled about this life style. Fred Wilson hints about “going out on top”. Cringely hints that he will give up blogging this year. One suspects that there is an ever growing urge to escape […]
I’ll sure miss this column :-(. If you’re looking for ideas, maybe a book about how much business leaders are worth. They get paid huge salaries and extra benefits along with a golden parachute but how much of that do they really deserve, how much can they take credit for? On the one hand, there was Steve Jobs, who saw that the reason Apple was sinking was because it was actually a rocket ship, destined for the stars. On the other extreme maybe Leo Apotheker, who ravaged HP and left with an obscene amount of money. But what about all the other pointy-hairs? How much is their leadership worth and how much do they get?
Thanks Bob. I have being following your since 2000. Your post (such as making a distinction between public company and IPO in Prediction 5: No IPO for Facebook, https://www.cringely.com/2012/01/prediction-5-no-ipo-for-facebook/) often reveals the inner workings of an industry that has often appears as an black box to the outside world. You posts will be missed.
On the other hand the notion of build a boat with your kids and walking the Earth sound priceless. Hope you the best in the journey ahead and I hope out path will cross.
Initially very sorry to hear this prediction, then looking back, amazed at how long it’s been, then hopeful you will continue to fill your life with fun and meaningful things to do. Hope you continue to speak out whenever you feel you have something to say.
I have been reading your columns, enjoying your videos, and appreciating your predictions for the entire time I have been in information technology. I was listening to Steve Job’s biography and I was thinking about many of the insights you had into the direction of Apple and I kept thinking how in retrospect how correct you were. For me, you are the most trusted source in Tech news, business insight, and computer history. Your blog will be greatly missed.
Bob,
I am sorry to hear that. Good luck with your endeavours.
Back when you were starting this gig I had just turned 17 and the only technology I was interested in was Technics SL 1200 turntables and vinyl records. Even then piracy was spelling doom for the media industry with home taping apparently killing music (no such luck – majors continued spewing out trash). I had my first career in the smoke stacks of the petrochemical complex and enjoyed DJing. I bought my first bit of; a sit up and beg Mac for proofing flyers as it worked out cheaper in the long run than bromide proofs.
I used various different bits of computer systems in my work and learned to touchtype on a DEC VAX with its typing tutor. The best half-an-hour a day I have ever invested.
I went back to college in 1994 and studied marketing sometime during my I time at college was when I discovered your book Accidental Empires which was handy as it gave me a sufficient background in the technology sector that I was able to get work in a technology marketing agency and sound like I knew what I was talking about.
As time went along my career progressed and I kept an eye on your columns as they provided a smart unspun look at what was happening. Even when you were wrong, it opened up areas of interest.
Thank you,
Ged Carroll
You are the best. It won’t be the same. Best wishes.
all the best!!!
Bob:
I have been with you for three decades. Please, stop the predictions but keep the intelligent writing.
TM
Likewise, first time commenter here, but long time reader:
Be mercurial and creative, Bob: change your mind! I do hope you can’t help yourself and post again somewhere. Cringely is one of my favorite reads, and you will be missed. Thanks for all the great stuff.
Thanks for the guidance through the years. You have helped me build and navigate my career.
This is by far the saddest prediction I have ever read. ***sniff***
Well, if you must walk the earth, at least stop by for some cookies and milk… or pie.
Not much I can say that hasn’t already been said. I hope you miss us half as much as we miss you and come back to us in some form or fashion before too long. I hope this change in focus gives you a wealth of new subject matte to write about. All the best!
Bob,
I hope you enjoy your well earned rest and the time with your kids. Your ability to mix news with analysis and entertainment sets you apart from other IT commentators. Your columns have been an interesting read for the last 25 years, and hope you continue to write, even if not as regularly as you do now.
Hi Robert
Wow 25 years, I can still remember you on the pack pages in print pre internet days, how the world has changed, and we have relied on you for all these years to make sense of it.
Trust you will find time to do an update on how the moon shot is going.
Building a boat and walking the earth sounds a lot of fun, and I am sure a lot of readers including me would love to see how that goes, please consider doing posts on a infrequent basis.
Wishing you all the best for the future
Craig
Thank you sir!
Well, this column came as a shock — a foundation moving abruptly (at least from this perspective; I am sure this is not a sudden decision for you), with nothing but an unfillable hole where you were (or will have been, I guess). You’ve been a great source of information and opinion; I stand with others who cannot see how to replace your combination of insight, informed derision, and knowledge.
I wonder if you might give some thought to writing with a different approach — less software-specific, less frequent, but still giving us broad-scope information and insight that is really not available elsewhere?
You can see me being Leroy here, fingernails leaving clawing scratchmarks on the board as I (and others) slide away from your vantage point at the top (figuratively speaking 🙂
Thanks for all you have done, Bob. I hope that you understand how valued, and valuable, you are. Eyeball thrice, plane once (by hand!)
Sad, but OK. Your deal.
Look forward (as I slide to retirement and thoughts of what if) on your accounts of the boat project and “walking the earth.”
You’ve been ( and I hope will continue to be) a fabulous resource and insight into life and technology.
All the best
C.Caldwell
Ummm… before you go, you still owe us at least three more predictions for 2012 because you normally give us ten (come on now, do you really think #8 counts? And considering your track record, do you really think it’s going to come true. Get real.) So get on with it, prediction monkey, and give us our remaining three please…
… and happy new year and see you in 2013… 2014… etc, for ten new predictions, just don’t jump the whale shark with them!
(Hopefully this was cynically cadre-y enough for ya.)
I’ve enjoyed your column for several years.
Reading you is a real insight into how the computer industry works.
Thank you very much.
and
Godspeed
Bob,
Sorry to see you go. Your articles and posts have been great. Enjoy your retirement whenever it comes and wherever it takes you.
Please tell me this means you’re freeing up time / energy for Team Cringely’s plan to land rovers on the Moon (maybe even with a bowling trophy, for good measure).
Expect an announcement later this month that’ kinda/sorta about the Moon shot. I’ll do a column on it for sure.
Say it ain’t so! Take a few years off then come back as a quirky, cantakerous commentator at the end of 60 Minutes episodes…
It doesn’t work that way. You can’t come home again.
No mention of your lunar project there.
Retirement is a gas. It is a opportunity to explore your creativity or to sit around and watch your body and mind deteriorate.
Aha, it’s a “prediction” because it’s unsure if it’ll be true. This semi-reirement thing has a 60% chance 😉
well I hope your boat building is more productive than mine. after “teaching” people how to build their own energy, effificient, healthy house, in a workshop setting – over a 24 year period (and well as “teaching” in college and high schoo lbefore that) – i decided to build a live aboard “trawler”. Now it’s dwindled down to maybe building Bolger’s Watervan. “Break a leg!”
Hi Bob,
I’ve been reading your columns since the mid 1990s. While there have been a handful which I forgot almost as soon as I was done, by far and away my majority reaction has been to a combination “oh! that’s interesting” and “where the heck did that come from?” and “just *how* did you put *those* two things together?”. Even when I flat out disagreed with your conclusions or perceptions of events, I have always come away reflecting and pondering, and watching my own viewpoint change as a result.
I’ll miss your columns. I hope others rise to fill the void with their own insights and thought-provoking observations. Be that as it may, building a boat and walking the earth with family sounds like a damn fine thing to do. Enjoy!
OMG.
Now I am going to have to get a life and learn to think on my own.
I hope your retirement is long, pleasant, and rewarding.
Hi Bob
A lot of people are going to miss you, myself included.
But I hope you enjoy the next chapter of your life.
I hope that we’ll still hear from you from time to time – I’m clinging on to your line “Nor will I disappear completely even then”!
Well I hate to contemplate your stepping away from this gig.
I think it will be incumbent upon you to recommend another techno pundit, or several of them.
I’m not a real techy. I’m more collateral. But I need to avoid missing out on trends. So I generally attach to one top notch pundit in a field to reliably keep me abreast, who is also generally confident enough to think about the topic outside the box. I think of them as “sage pundits”.
You have of course done that brilliantly. In economics I rely on Paul Krugman’s blogs, yes, he’s a liberal (also called ‘salt water econonomist’), and in economics, so am I, but he does a fair job of addressing and explaining the other side’s construction so I know what’s going on. For politics I go to talkingpointsmemo – again its liberal but has similar qualities as to Krugman. I appologize if you don’t like being compared with the likes of those guys, but your departure will mean that I need to find a new technology pundit to keep me apprised of events, their impact, and so on.
By the way, in this regard, the predictions are valuable. I learn a little bit about the underlying dynamics from the construction of them, and I learn a little more when things don’t go exactly as predicted. Very valuable stuff from an education perspective. Once in a while, I might click on a link by the sage pundits I follow, but usually I don’t have the time. But at the very least I have to consistently check in with the sage pundit, at least weekly, to be kept abreast.
So, I think it only fair, that before you go, you provide recommendations for a new sage pundit in the sphere of punditry.
kindest regards and best fun for the future.
Jesus, I have no idea who to recommend! If I was smart I’d go the Dread Pirate Roberts route and find a successor. But I’m not that smart.
A lot has changed since I started doing this. The IT industry has grown tremendously as has coverage of it. There are plenty of smart people out there.
Marge Fresnel, my old flight instructor, who had flown as a WAAF in WW-2, said finding an instructor with military experience is important. That analogy fits here if you look for a pundit who has actually worked in the industry, not just written about it. That’s where even Dvorak falters because for all his years and brain cells I think he’s still looking from the outside-in. Imagine how it must be, then, for a 20-something writing for CNet or, shudder, AOL.
Maybe I’ll do a column about this sometime, but one of the most obvious facts about the writing business is that pay hasn’t changed in decades — literally decades — while everything else has gone up in price. That means most writers are having to work a lot harder than they used to and when it comes to writing, harder hardly ever means smarter… and it shows. Between that and SEO, link exchanges, and paid content, a lot of crap gets written that shouldn’t and that’s a disservice to readers. I never look at the numbers because I might slip into that same trap, too. But as you’ve already figured out, I’m not very good at playing by the rules.
Pundits come and go, but I wouldn’t trust one who won’t admit mistakes.
I’ve been thinking about this all week. When I first started reading your stuff firms were shipping products that simply did not work as promised. I could probably write a 1000 word column on all the things that were wrong in that IBM PC AT. Some of those mistakes have been duplicated into the PC’s we use today. At the time reporters like you couldn’t get a straight answer from the vendors. Things were constantly changing, some technology would come and vanish in a few months. It was a chaotic time. You knew enough about the technology not to accept the PR answer and would keep digging for the truth. I can remember you getting in trouble a few times for finding the truth. I was grateful for your sacrifices. I took what I learned from you and did some more research. And then I would have a serious conversation with those same vendors. I saved my company $Millions in our early PC investments. Few remember how bad stuff was in the PC industry 15-25 years ago. It took a lot of bullying to get things fixed. You gave us the facts and baseball bat we needed to wage war against the hardware and software makers. Over time things got better, a lot better. You were an important catalyst in the industry. THANK YOU.
BTW, one of my favorites of your ideas was….
the idea that cities build FREE light (or ultra light) rail systems.
Charge NO fee for use, ie. make riding the rail free.
Instead fund the system by the increase in property taxes in the vicinity of the stations where the trains were boarded.
Free transportation would generate large numbers of users, who would have to pass through the stations to board, businesses near the stations would get excess foot traffic, that would raise the value of the property, and with it, taxes on that property, and that increase could pay for the system. Also a house or apartment closer to a station would be worth more than one far away, and so on.
I have no idea whether that idea could ever work, but I like the thinking.
How much more traffic would be generated by a free light rail system? How much energy would that save? How much fewer emissions would be generated? Would we be better neighbors to each other if we saw each other in the same rail car instead of sitting in another car in another lane? Think of all the walking people would do – and the affect upon health and obesity.
That’s the kind of out of the box thinking that I really enjoy. I’m an economic geography major, and I would never have thought of that.
I believe that was circa – 2000 to 2001.
One of the things that I respect about you the most is that you WILL admit your mistakes. Not only did it make for entertaining reading (mostly the prediction recaps) but it also made you more “human”.
I do hope that you keep this site somewhat active. A lot of us really enjoy your unique insights into this crazy industry.
Best of luck to you and yours!
I predict he will end his predictions this year but then start another prediction, next year!
Bob, be careful in your travels not to follow in the footsteps of James Kim. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Kim . And don’t think you can rely on your tech gadgets in an emergency. There are plenty of other sad stories demonstrating that all they provide is a false sense of security.
I *really* hope that prediction is wrong. I’ve only been reading you since ’97, and I still want more!
A couple hundred more columns? I see barely one a week. Most of them, I or anyone else could write in 20 minutes. The last 4 are all the same… take the top 5 companies and predict they switch CEOs or merge in various ways. That takes less imagination and effort than getting out of bed.
I don’t come here to diss Bob. But since the Infoworld days all he writes is filler, or stuff that’s meant to con the readers. The comments are much more insightful, and are what I come here to read. Good riddance, get another life. Sell shoes or make lattes somewhere. If you have even that much talent.
It’s more often than that but you are correct that I should have written “100 columns” not 200. As for the other stuff you say, well I’ll leave it for others to respond. You could be correct.
But I will tell you that I used to carry around in my wallet a message I received years ago from an irate reader who was convinced I was about the most stupid person who’d ever tried to write about technology.
“I eat guys like you for lunch,” he told me back in 1991. He was at the time a student at the University of Akron. For a decade or so until I finally lost that piece of paper I’d look him up every year or two to see where he’d gone. Last time I checked he was still in Akron.
Bob,
You can look me up every year and I’ll take you out to lunch.
Otherwise, I’ll miss your opinions, insights and occasional ramblings.
Given the logistical constraints I might instead be satisfied with an occasional post somewhere with “what crazy stuff I’d tell Phil if we had lunch.”
I consider you to be one of the few honest tech bloggers out there – probably because I’ve been reading and watching you before there was “blogging.” I’m not saying I agree with everything you write (what would be the point of reading your blog then) but I’ve always appreciated how much fun it’s been for me to read and think about what you’ve commented on, and how civil you, on your part, have tried to make this bit of the blogosphere.
Phil
Well, Joe, it was Cringely who convinced me to buy Apple stock in 2000, so I’ll take his filler over your comments.
I just wish he (or anyone) had stopped me from selling it in 2003. Sigh.
Anyway if you’re hunting for the most informed, least-trolly comments board of a tech blog, I recommend Asymco.com. The comments there are like a free education in mobile computing analysis.
WOW, I second that, except I still have my shares, I just wish I had put more money into the stock.
First time commenting.
Have been following your blog for the past 8 years. Have enjoyed every one of your articles. Hope you write once in a while though.
Wishing you and your family all the best for the future.
Vivek
“Say it ain’t so, Bob. Say it ain’t so.”
Like Tim K., I’d appreciate it if you could recommend a successor. Before I followed your blog, I was a faithful reader of Bob Metcalfe, so I’m afraid you’ll have to narrow your short list down to other people named Robert 🙂
Or if you change your mind about the Dread Pirate Roberts route, allow me to toss my hat in the ring. I have absolutely no contacts, but I’ve been working in tech since college in 1980.
You can take a break, you can do other things but you know better than anyone that YOU CAN NEVER LEAVE.
It won’t let you. It’s in your blood. You’ll do this in one way or another until you die, Bob, and you know that. Like Pacino’s character in The Godfather it’ll keep pulling you back in.
And when that happens, we’ll be waiting.
I assume there will be some documentory around the making of the boat? Hope you have better luck than you did with the plane.
English pop-musio Thomas Dolby put a nice solar powered boat together. He records in it now.
I’ll be sorry to see the end of I, Cringely, which I have enjoyed reading for many years. You obviously know a lot more than I do about the hi tech industry (and you can say it much more entertainingly, too!)
However, I can understand your decision to have plenty of time to do your boat building and designing right. Poor design of boats can lead to big problems. (Wasn’t there a movie about that, starring Kate Winslet that Leonardo guy? Steer clear of icebergs, that’s all I have to say…)
Brent
Even when you predictions are wrong, even when I disagree with your conclusions, you always make me look at things from a completely different perspective. You’re take on things will be sorely missed!
I’ve enjoyed your blog for years, and you will be missed.I don’t think that you will be far from the limelight, though, and it will be reassuring that you will be there somewhere in the background. Just promise me that you won’t try to build and sail a boat in a month, OK?
Actually, Bob never said he intends to sail it or even put it in the water. He said he would build a boat and perhaps walk the earth. Besides, who said anything about sailing? Could be a rowboat or a canoe. And he said that he may be posting columns until December 31st. Just sayin’. 🙂
I began teaching Computer Studies in 1986, using Apple IIes. I started reading I, Cringely columns a few years later. Those columns, both on the PBS site and the cringely.com site have added immensely to the teaching/learning experience I shared with thousands of kids. We were privileged to have Bob come and speak to my 8th graders on a few occasions. He later confided that, after speaking to business professionals and grad students, my middle schoolers scared the crap out of him! It’s OK, Bob, they always scared me, too. To Bob’s credit, he showed up for on of those speaking engagements…always gratis… on 9/11, leaving a pregnant wife at home.
Thanks so much for your contributions, and yes, for your sometimes bone-headed opinions over the years, Bob. And thanks for enriching my own technological and educational experiences.
This must mean it’s time for me to retire too!
First time I write a comment as well.
After reading your columns, clinging to them, for about 15 years. Started a company then (still up and running very well) in the crossroads between technology and culture. You provided us with orientation.
Will really miss reading you!
David
Fine! Get out of here! You won’t be missed!
(*sniff*)
This sucks.
So future blogs will be written by people who don’t remember what it was like to work on an IBM clone with 5 1/4″ floppy drives … or when upgrading from a green monochrome screen to one with amber phosphor was a big deal. So much for institutional knowledge!
I hope you’ll keep producing *something* for us to read, even if it’s not this blog.
Now, can you please get off my lawn?
Say it ain’t so. Roger Clemens?
Bob it has been a pleasure since ‘plane crazy’. Don’t go! Is it just me or does the Internet suck these days? This is one prediction I hope fails.
Bob: At first I was angry. What columnist will I assign my students now!? Then I was sad, because I have read you for so many years, shown your PBS series so many times to classes. First on VHS then on DVD. Next was denial. You probably won’t really leave, you’ll just reincarnate into some new format. The Cringely App for my iPad. But I accept that you deserve to retire. You earned it. Your family has earned it. Please come back and visit. I won’t delete the bookmark, just in case.
Bob, thanks for all the words, wise, insightful, and otherwise. Your book about Three Mile Island should be required reading for anyone involved in engineering, management, or disaster preparedness. With all your upcoming free time, any chance of a similar in-depth analysis of a recent or yet-to-have-occurred crisis?
I first heard about you when I caught “The Triumph of the Nerds” on PBS way back in the 90s when it first aired. I then discovered your column when I started working at an ISP as a support technician, and I’ve followed you ever since then. I, for one, will miss your columns on the IT industry, as you still follow the ENTIRE industry. Though John Gruber still considers you “insane” whenever you write something about Apple, he doesn’t know jack about anything else that helped build the industry into what it is today. I hope you enjoy your retirement, and I’ll keep checking in here until you’re done. Thank you.
Bob – My ex-CEO recommended you as one of the thought leaders in the industry about 7 or 8 years ago. I was new to IT and didn’t grasp most of what you said at that time, but never stopped reading you. As I began understanding how the gears turn, I would go back and re-read some of your columns. Many will miss you. Please drop an occasional post card to your readers. Thanks.
I guess the movie made you a lot of money to quit! Good luck!
First time comment.
Enjoy your time away from it all and “Thank You”, for sticking at it so long.
“So long and thanks for all the fish”
Liam
Yea, Bob! Congrats on your decision to go build a boat. After reading your work for decades, I can say that it will be good to hear your approach to boating.
Well deserved, and I hope to be joining you someday, before it is too, too late.
Ahhh ! I am getting chest pains at the mere thought!
Understandably, its the nature of things, the changing of the season but still, I would have a terrible time letting go. I always get a grin, a smile, or even a sagely insightful nod when I read your blog posts.
I especially enjoy the ah ha moments and a firm reminder of doing our best to step outside the box and try to look at issues the best we can – charging that windmill of objectivity. Never winning but at least trying : )
I also appreciate the pursuit of truths, yours, ours and theirs. Refusing the accept the well paid for and orchestrated party line that “they” so desperately want us to believe. The Agent Mulder – the truth is out there!
Thank you so much for all that you have done. If anything the lesson that I have learned from you is that one should always hold on to their wit and a good strong sense of humor.
Since your first column – following your predecessor at InfoWorld — I’ve valued and enjoyed your columns and documentaries. The times, they are a changing. My life has been enriched by your efforts. Thank you, sir.
I understand, but … but…
This is a bit like saying: “We’re doing away with keyboards. There are plenty of other ways to get info into a machine, most using those very same fingers.” etc
But the single, logical, most sensible solution is going away? Shock!
Ok. It’s understandable. Personally, I came late to the parenting lark and would like to spend more time with my kids before my gnarled old carcass gives out. Work gets in the way and if I could, er, work around it, I would.
Not sure if any of my reasoning applies, but you’ll be missed, Bob.
Wow.. I’ve been watching and reading your stuff since 1996 when I first saw Triumph of the Nerds on PBS and later found your Infoworld column. Still looking forward to watching all those NerdTV interviews that are in the can too.
So, do we ever get to find out what happened to you moon mission?
cuballama…
[…]I, Cringely » Blog Archive Prediction 8: No more predictions – Cringely on technology[…]…
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[…] Cringley was looking to turn off his blog and make prediction 8: No more predictions. Here it is: https://www.cringely.com/2012/01/05/prediction-8-no-more-predictions/ Of course that wouldn’t last as his blog is a great place to promote his other works. However […]