Fourteen years ago I gave a speech to the National Association of State and Provincial Lotteries at their annual meeting, held that year in Minneapolis. They gave me a hand-carved wooden duck decoy that’s on my bookshelf today. My topic was this thing called the Internet and what it would mean to state lotteries and organized gambling in general. I told them it would rock their world. And it has. But thanks to a ruling last week from the U.S. Department of Justice, the lotteries may finally be in a position to fight back.
What amazed me back in 1998 was that the lottery folks weren’t Las Vegas-type gambling executives but more like the people down at the DMV — pleasant and chubby civil servants there to collect the money, thanks. They were secure in their local gambling monopolies and had no idea that some outfit in the Channel Islands could steal their customers with a game of online poker. The state troopers would handle that problem, they thought, dimly.
I suggested fighting fire with fire — that the states promote their lotteries internationally, expanding their territories and making even more money. They looked at me like I had two heads.
Since then Internet gambling and Indian casinos have taken twin bites out of the lottery business. But last week the DoJ ruled that state lotteries don’t violate the Wire Act if they are conducted in accordance with their charters, that is entirely within state boundaries and not involving wagers on sporting events.
So now California is thinking of selling its lottery tickets online, which is exactly what I suggested 14 years ago.
Once one state does it most of the rest will follow. The customer base of the lottery business will expand and the margins for the states ought to grow higher, too, because by dealing direct the lottery can grab some of that margin currently going to lottery retailers. Of course those retailers will hate that so even more lawyers will shortly be involved.
But the writing is on the wall and this has real technological significance for both the gambling and Internet industries. Location services will become even more important as lotteries are required to verify that their customers are indeed within state boundaries. I see, too, a whole new class of geographical proxies used to defeat these new services. Where once it was the hope of anonymous web surfing or watching the BBC iPlayer from outside the UK that drove these location spoofing services, soon it will be proving you are in Portland, Oregon, not Vancouver, Washington.
There are wonderful nuances to this, too. If I am a resident of a state but happen to be traveling outside the state, can I still legally order lottery tickets even though I am not home? I don’t think that one has been answered. Certainly if I am a visitor to a lottery state I ought to be able to order tickets even though my credit card issuer is in Canada or Tanzania, right? So an effective local proxy could allow international gambling, which is in the interest of the states to allow, however thinly veiled.
And what about the PowerBall and other multi-state lotteries? Where do they fit in this new system?
Will there even be physical tickets involved? Why should there be? And what’s the possible role of high frequency gambling — you know, the equivalent of high frequency stock trading?
If millions of tickets have been sold for a huge lottery jackpot with no winner yet identified, would it be possible for a syndicate or maybe a huge corporation to simply say “I’ll take all the remaining tickets, please,” reducing the odds to a certainty through one huge electronic buy?
Internet gambling is about to enter its own Wild West.
Kind of makes one long for the old days and those pleasant chubby people from the DMV.
Let’s face it: the world is more and more global but some people (mostly those with power – governments & large corporations) just don’t get it. Or more precisely: they do “get” it, but they only want the part of globalization that suits them (= cheaper labor & cheaper products) and block all other effects.
Good example are the music&movie industries with all their known issues & unwillingness to adapt to the new situation and something called the Internet.
Globalization simply means it is irrelevant where I am located, what is my home address or what citizenship I have. All attempts of whatever location based blockages they are trying to enforce are futile in the long run.
Yes, there will be a lot of laws passed & enforced in US and all over the world blocking services based on location, citizenship, home address, shoe size, whatever,… but in the end all these “virtual” borders will fall, the same as real country borders are falling (or at least becoming less stringent).
The problem is the online borders will not fall soon (based on current situation and willingness of governments to impose even more borders I predict no sooner than 10-20 years) and a lot of people will be inconvenienced because of this. And a lot of talent and money will be wasted developing methods & counter methods to circumvent the location based blockages…
One of many business models impacted by the internet and thrown back into the “wild west”.
As if the bureaucrats don’t have enough work cut out for them the chance of antiquated laws catching up to give them a chance at dealing with it properly are zero to none. i.e. U.S. patent system.
The Channel Islands is a delightful place for a holiday. And thanks to HM Revenue & Customs savvy investors can go home with a LOT more money than they took out there…
Any reason you’ve stopped including an audio version of these posts? If not, can you bring that back? I quite like having you read them aloud. Ta!
I second this motion! I enjoyed being able to take Cringely comments out when I go running. Please bring back the podcasts!
Yes, he has a great speaking voice, but as he has pointed out before, he needs to get the technical and software issues ironed out. And the going rate for podcasts is free or ad-supported.
“My people pride themselves on being the greatest, most successful gamblers in the universe [on the internet]. We compete for everything: power, fame, women, everything we desire, and it is our nature… to win. ”
The Gamesters of Triskelion
Personally, I’d create a worlwide lottery where I randomly give each participants a 16 number combination where each number ranges from 0 to 255. Sounds familiar? And on lottery day, generate one more of these and see if it matched something.
I’d laugh my way to the bank. 🙂
If I log into my desktop remotely, will I be able to purchase tickets in my home state?
(who am I kidding, we don’t HAVE a lottery!)
State gambling is not just lotteries with the ball machines and such. It is also scratch tickets. What would a virtual scratch ticket look like? Could they be animated? Could they look just like a slot machine? What about a blackjack table?
Depending on the specific laws in a state, these “scratch tickets” and other virtual gambling could get rather sophisticated. To the point where it closely resembles a poker table. This ruling opens the door to almost any online gambling. The only restrictions are that the play does not cross state borders, and it does not involve betting on sports. That leaves a lot of room for the states.
And, of course, the state lotteries don’t want to build and maintain their own applications and servers. They will outsource that, to someone that already has experience in the field. Maybe to someone like Poker Stars or Bodog. You go to one of these popular sites and it automatically detects your geographic location and redirects you to the server physically located in your state. Completely transparent to the end user.
This will be a pain to build out on the backend. But there is enough money to be made that it will be worthwhile to build.
Scratch tickets online could look just like a slot machine.
In the State of Washington, slot machines are illegal. But they have them in every casino. How is that possible? Each pull of the lever on a slot machine delivers you a randomly chosen virtual scratch ticket. It looks just like a slot machine. It sounds just like a slot machine. The difference is that every time you pull the handle, you are taking a virtual ticket from a finite pile of scratch tickets. This way there are a set number of winning tickets. If the virtual ticket bundle has 1000 tickets and 10 grand prize winners, you are guaranteed 10 grand prize winners every 1000 tickets.
The drawback is that you can’t buy the whole bundle and win, it costs more to buy all the tickets than you would generate in prize money. The other disadvantage is that you have no idea when you’ve completed a group of 1000 tickets.
svratch this: ██████████ and you will get a new display !
so I scratched it… and all I did was cut through all the corrections I have been making online with pen and White-Out.
was there a joke there?
Nice column Bob. This is in a way a continuation of a theme. Times change, why can’t we accept that?
From your Steve Job interview I can remember his answer about the future. In the late 1990’s if you went to a big established mail order firm (like Sears) and told them they could take over the world using this new thing called the Internet, they would have probably laughed you out of the office. By then Sear’s fortunes were on the decline and they had moved out of their landmark tower in downtown Chicago. Such advice could have transformed the company and returned it to its former greatness. Earlier this week Sears announced more store closings and layoffs.
This week while buying a lottery ticket I learned the Powerball folks are changing their game and will be doubling the price of a ticket. While I am not adverse to spending a dollar occasionally, I think I will buy a lot less tickets when they are $2. Here is an organization that won’t let me buy tickets on the Internet, and are now raising prices. I wonder how well this is going to work.
Another tragic mismanagement story is the US Post Office. Anyone who has ever used email knows it was going to hurt the postal system. Even the US Post Office has known they need to change with the times, but haven’t.
On a personal note in 1994 I worked for a company that made plastics. It was a bad year. One of our competitors had set up a web site and published on it all of their product information. At the time engineers picked with plastics would be used in a product. Engineers were also some of the first folks on the Internet. Having a lot of good information on on plastics on the web made it a lot easier from them to chose our competitors products over our own. We had already lost $Millions in business when I went to that divisions leadership with a proposal to build them a website. I was basically laughed out of the conference room. They simply did not understand the fact change was upon them. They continued to lose more and more money. A year later we sold the division and 1000’s lost their jobs. With a small investment and a little vision things could have been different.
The decline of the USPS is not as simple as seeing the need to change and refusing to do anything about it, they, like Amtrak, have been put in an impossible position by their congressional overlords whereby they are required to provide a ridiculously unfeasable-for-private-industry high level of service (i.e. Saturday delivery, offices in every podunk crossroads in the country), but are forced to compete with more efficient and nimble private industry, all the while being denied the sort of public subsidy that would allow their business model to work.
VLT addiction coming to the desktop? To the cellphone? Ugh.
As we all know, you can’t win unless you buy a ticket, and it only takes one ticket to win.
Actually my dear old dad had some wisdom about that: if you buy two lottery tickets, you know for certain that at least one of them won’t be winning!
And that reminds me what is the real reason that people buy lottery tickets: it is because, every once in awhile, the gambler will win a small prize. If it weren’t for the small prizes, most people wouldn’t buy any tickets at all.
When I lived in Silicon Valley, I would occasionally drive to Davis to see my brother who was in law school there at the time. On the drive out there, the highway was littered with billboards for the Tahoe casinos on the Nevada side. Many of them advertised “97% payback” as if this was a reason to spend your money in their casino as opposed to any of the others. Their hope is that you will interpret this message as “worst case, I’ll lose 3% of my money” which of course is totally false. Most people will lose it all and a few will win big with the house keeping 3% overall. The fact that they can fund their casinos and still make a good profit on 3% tells you just how big a problem gambling is. I’m not suggesting it should be illegal because no one is forcing people to gamble. However, most people have no true sense of what the odds really are. If they did, they wouldn’t gamble. I think it IS the responsibility of our public education system to make sure people grow up with an understanding of probability so they know what they are getting themselves into when they walk into a casino or buy a lottery ticket.
Lotteries are built around two principles. 1. People do not understand statistical probability. 2. No matter how remote the odds, a winning ticket can break them out of their drudgery. The cognitive dissonance that we maintain when we see how big the jackpot is versus the known fact that lotteries make their organizers (mainly States and charities) a lot of money (not to mention the plush casinos with freebies) reflects these principles. What’s a buck or two anyway…. for the chance to win big?
There was also a time when “people” did not understand the risk of smoking. Sometimes information needs more exposure before “people” pay attention.
State lotteries are nothing more than a voluntary tax on the poor. The poor shouldn’t be spending what little money they have on the quite improbable chance they will win and all their problems solved but they do. The state is playing on the hopes and dreams of the poor and the entire notion is sold to the taxpayers as a way to provide more funding for education. Except that’s not what happens. Ask anyone that works in education and they will tell you that the state shorts them whatever money they get from the lottery so the result is most school districts are not benefiting from the lottery at all. It’s also hypocritical for the state to make gambling illegal but then engage in it itself.
These lotteries need to go away. And those of us that vote should remember that the poorer the poor get, the more of an inefficient burden they become on the rest of us. We should be encouraging them to save and invest in things that will give them a REAL chance to lift themselves out of poverty.
Right, the old “poor are getting poorer” thing. They had no shit. They still have no shit. Sounds about the same to me. You are yet another presumably well-meaning person with their focus on the wrong target.
The fact that there is a lottery on which they can spend money they should be using for food isn’t the problem.
To keep things relevant to the topic at hand – and to make a point about focusing in the wrong area – how about we put the lottery fully on-line with no more paper tickets sold, and then make internet service so expensive the poor can’t afford it. QED
A voluntary tax is like an optional mandate. Doesn’t make sense…
Rupe
Geoff do you live in IL?
I think the state gov’t has been shorting education here just the way you said.
I would disagree with you by saying lotteries are voluntary taxes on those who
choose to participate. In the real world I think many people who buy the tickets likely cannot afford to do so.
The lottery is an integral piece of the red-neck retirement plan.
As long as you mention state lotteries’ monopoly power, do you have an opinion on prize-linked savings plans?
https://www.commissions.leg.state.mn.us/ladder/FLworkgroup/032411PrizeLinkFAQ.pdf
State lotteries have blocked them.
Well, I’d say two things:
They should require state issued government IDs to participate in the state’s lottery. If you don’t have one too bad; but any proceeds made are sent to the mailing address for the government issued ID, so it must go somewhere in-state. That would solve the whole proxy issue, and allow residents on travel to still participate.
However, it would not allow non-residents to participate. In which case, I’d just say that either the state would need to issue a special ID for that, or “too bad” – they can go to a lottery retailer instead.
As to the multi-state ones, well, they’d simply have to check that the ID is for a participating state, and apply the same rules.
Sure, visitors won’t like it; but it’s not prohibiting them from joining in, just the form in which they do so. However, this is probably the only way in which a state could completely comply with the rules that it only operates within the boundary set by the terms of the charter and within the state.
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One solution would be to send the winnings to the buyer’s specific address as mentioned before. Another would be to make use of the GPS in phones to buy tickets from the phones. This would allow people to buy their tickets about anywhere they would go.
Cue the GPS proxy industry….
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There will be a global lottery in 25 years.
I bet you $1 there won’t be.
[…] to Robert X. Cringely, a widely known writer in the tech industry, this ruling is about to open up a pandora’s box for […]
Back in the 1970s, John Brunner’s wrote his prophetic novel “Shockwave Rider” which introduced ideas like malware, data privacy, and yes, online lottos. IIRC, in the story the U.S. government derived a significant portion of its revenues from sales of online lotto tickets.
Damn autocorrect!
John Brunner
data piracy
Another nuance, if system is set up to track residency, will it be used against Amazon, and other online stores, to collect state sales tax?
Is any real wealth created by lotteries?
Can anyone think of a more wasteful activity than having millions of people playing lotteries and hundreds, maybe thousands, of people facilitating that activity and thinking they are doing useful work in the bargain? Not to mention lots lawyers to make sure things are all on the legit all round – for a reasonable fee of course. Why if we only expanded lotteries by 100 fold, this country would be back on it’s feet in no time.
“more wasteful activity”…requiring college educated CPAs to fill out tax forms.
🙂
. . . Happy New Year 2012 Ron.
Thanks…same to you.
RE: The Channel Islands
I was born and live some of the time in Jersey C.I.
Please do not “tar us all with the same brush”… There are eight actual islands (5 inhabited), although “most” of the on-line gambling and other more unsavoury web content in the islands is centred from Guernsey.
Some of the laws here haven’t been updated since the dark ages, and it is this fact and that the ‘powers that be’ haven’t closed the loop-holes (only the ones they wish to, or ‘persuaded’ to by UK Government). Hence there is an increasing ‘glut’ of on-line business – most above board (and good luck to them) but an increasingly larger dark shadow of web darkness as well.
Example
I have a good friend who has been a successful dairy farmer for the last twenty years, as was his father and before that his grandfather. Dairy farming has been under huge strain for the last 10 years or so – even in the Jersey Cow amazingly creamy milk market…
Well, two years he had had enough, got rid of the dairy business (even though he was offered an 100k EU subsidy, and had a full-spec state-of-the-art fibre-linked server farm installed where the milking parlour once stood. Jersey has gigabit broadband if one wishes it. His installation has 24/7 security, power, and the full blessing of the law – because it hasn’t changed!
He has no idea at all what is being hosted through the setup, as it is being run and managed by a company based … somewhere (he thinks it’s in the Cayman’s.
He has made more money in the last two years than in his entire farming career, and that of his father and grandfather. Can I blame him? No.
There are many of these server farms appearing discreetly – I know of at least 8.
Server farms are a bit like guns: it’s not the gun that is the danger or problem, it’s who pulls the trigger…
The problem here (as elsewhere) is about law apathy, least line of resistance, bribery, and boredom.
Happy New Year folks 🙂
I should add (before you ask) that his installation is not used for SPAM or BOTNET origination – that is one area where the law is extremely strict in the UK and Channel Islands.
From all the free stickers, pads, pens and gaming POS stuff he has floating around, the installation is almost undoubtedly used to host gaming (Bingo, Poker, and the like etc.)
G
That is a really neat story! I’m sure a few of the Ayrshire farmers around me would love to do something similar. Unfortunately we have the internet from the dark ages. 1Mbps is considered good for most areas, I’m sure most farms can only get dial-up.
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actually, the Minnesota State Lottery has quietly had a little space on their website allowing you to order tickets online.
all of a sudden a couple weeks or so ago, a number of state legislators were “shocked, shocked” to hear about it.
I really should see if I can get the concession to sell quality goose feathers for quills, because it’s legislative season again
In the UK we already have the ability to buy tickets on-line via Camalot’s National Lottery site. A few years back they changed the law wrt buying tickets when not in the UK – they banned it.
If you’re visiting the UK you can buy. If you’re on holiday, outside the UK but are a UK resisdent, you can’t buy. I don’t even think you can ask someone else to buy on your behalf!
As for bulk buying, I also believe there’s mechanisms in place to prevent the bulk buying, and that it’s been rulled out legally too. All to protect the game from becoming a certainty as Bob pointed out. Certainly on the website you’ve got to have an account, put money it to it from a debit card (not credit card – that’s banned too), and are only able to buy a small amount of tickets at any one time.
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