I love the Kindle Fire tablet launched today, even though I have yet to touch one. I love the $199 price, the clever browser (more about that below, it may surprise you), the tight integration, the application, book and video marketplace, the small size, I even like the limited features compared with an iPad. The Kindle Fire is perfect… for my kids. I’ll be buying three of them for Christmas.
Right now my boys, ages 5, 7 and 9 all have iPod Touches that have served them well despite having been many times lost, spilled on, and in one case very lightly driven over by a car. But the Touches, which also cost $199 as I recall, are getting old, their batteries recharged so many times to where they now barely last an hour. It’s time for something new, which in the eyes of my boys means something better.
In this instance bigger is better and the Kindle Fire is certainly bigger. My boys don’t need 3G or 4G, they don’t need a camera (I don’t want to see my seven year-old running a webcam business), what they need is a video machine with ebooks, light surfing capability and cool games. The only part I am unsure about with the Kindle Fire is those games, but I also know that Amazon isn’t stupid. Even the limited marketplace is an advantage in my view because it will probably do a good job at vetting content, protecting my kids.
Analysts will wonder how the Kindle Fire will affect iPad sales. It has to. I’ll be buying three Kindles, for example, rather than one iPad. So I’m predicting Amazon will have a hit and Apple will take a hit, but so what? Wasn’t something like this going to come along eventually anyway? If Amazon mightily validates the smaller form factor so scorned by Steve Jobs, you can bet Apple will follow with a seven-incher of its own. Game on!
What I’m not sure I see coming from this, frankly, is any boost for Android, which is hiding somewhere inside the Kindle Fire, potentially generating royalties only for Microsoft.
But this can only be good for consumers and I like what’s good for consumers. Maybe the aggressive pricing and fair feature set will incite Apple to new greatness. It probably will.
Now about that Amazon Silk browser that is being touted as so revolutionary and key to the Kindle Fire’s supposedly snappy behavior (remember I haven’t touched one): it’s clever, but not revolutionary at all. In fact, for all the gee whiz technical claims of Amazon this exact same technology has been used by thousands of rural Internet users for more than a decade.
The power of Amazon Silk that allows the Kindle Fire to need only eight gigs of local storage is its integration with Amazon S3 storage and EC2 cloud services. S3 will hold a copy of all data in the cloud for free while EC2 will run a smart application proxy that will cache, prefetch, and transcode data on behalf of the Kindle Fire user with the help of massive computing resources on that backend and gigantic data pipes. Where a dynamic page might require 20 or more DNS hits and data grabs, we’re told, the Kindle Fire will do all that via EC2 making the actual page generation a single grab at WiFi speeds, the page having been pre-assembled in the cloud at lightspeed right down to resizing graphics to smaller sizes that fit the Kindle Fire screen.
Cool, eh? Yet those features (TCP Acceleration and Web Page Acceleration) were both present in my old Starband satellite Internet connection back in 2000, where they were necessary to make surfing even possible over a 44,600 mile round trip. The Starband equivalent of EC2 was (and still is) a Gilat data center in Virginia. I’m not sure the Amazon Silk team has actually invented anything at all.
So unless Amazon quietly bought Gilat, the owner of Starband, then they are going to have a hard time keeping other tablet companies from copying or licensing these clever browser features.
Amazon Silk is cool, but we’ll see its equivalent on an iPad, too, almost immediately.
Hi Bob,
You are right, it’s not a new idea. The Opera Mobile web browser has done a similar thing since 2004. See for example https://www.opera.com/press/releases/2004/06/09/ .
Concrete Gannet
If I can choose to use my own server instead of Amazon’s I might be interested in using their Silk browser. Does Opera Mobile or any other split browser allow this?
Opera is one browser with this idea.
Less well known is that users can rig up the same thing by routing URLs through either Google Reader or Instaper’s server. Both these services strip out the sides of web pages (which are usually, like this web page, fluff and filler, so you have just the content), resize images, render javascript on the server, etc etc. The primary goal of both these services is to generate a web page that works better on a small screen, over a 3G connection.
Re-rendering pages in this way is mainstream now, insofar as it’s in Safari (Reader mode), however Safari/iOS/Apple does not provide this service in the most useful way, to the most useful platform, by providing it for iOS and doing the rendering remotely. (Safari’s reader mode pulls in the entire web page, then does the re-rendering on your Mac.) But there is nothing in principle from having Apple do this — they have the HW now with the iCloud servers, they’ve certainly had people suggest it to them, and for all I know it’s in iOS5.
All of which is a leadup to my saying that, regardless of the benefits to AMAZON of structuring the browser this way, there are user benefits as well — for certain types of sites, primarily non-interactiv sites where one reads a lot of content — news and blogs for example. Amazon have made no indication that Silk offers this, but I expect it’s just a matter of time before they allow users a way to pull in certain sites of the user’s choice in “Reader mode”.
I can’t bring myself to pay $500+ for an iPad, but I can easily see paying $200 for one of these. And according to the news blurb on NPR today, this thing runs Flash wonderfully; just like my Android cellphone.
A guy I know was one of the first people in the UK to own an iPad. I examined it slack-jawed with wonder. It was sleek, stylish, a tour de force of consumer electronics bling, but I couldn’t understand what it was for. “What’s it for?” I asked. He said, “Look at these games you can play.” “Nice”, I said, “but what’s it for?”. “See how the image rotates as you turn the device”, he said. “Damn, that’s clever”, I said, “but what’s it for? Can you phone people with it?” “Er… no.” “Has it got a keyboard?” I asked. “Er… not as such, but you can sort of use a virtual one on the touch-screen if you have to. Anyway I’ve got all my photogaphs on it. See what a great time we had in France.” “Come on, John”, I said, “you can do all that on your laptop. Why do you actually need this?” “Er… maybe you’ve got a point, but it’s great for watching movies on a plane.”
So’s a laptop. But nothing’s quite like my Kindle. I’ve read more literature since I owned my kindle than in the previous five years. I think it’s the best invention since Gutenberg.
Haha, all your objections to the iPad, seeing as you don’t own one. I can reflect those same arguments back at you, seeing as I don’t own a Kindle. (I don’t own an iPad either, so my perspective is a little second-hand.)
But a Kindle lets you read in style. The screen is gentle on the eyes, the WhisperSync is convenient, and the battery life is fantastic.
And an iPad lets you do things on a screen in style. The screen is gorgeous in moderate lighting, the installed apps and store app selection are nice, and the battery life is decent.
I mean, your own example, vacation photos. Open with a gentle touch, see the beautiful stacks of photos in neat piles, open the one you want. Or do you prefer to be dragged to a PC, search for the cursor, click on tiny icons, load the photo program from hard disk or from Flickr’s web site, click tiny scroll bars? (When given a choice, people choose not to learn the most basic things sometimes, like scroll wheels.) A PC makes it feel like work.
I wondered at first what the iPad was for. Bought one anyway, and now I know:
1. Intimate form factor. It’s with me when my laptop isn’t like on the sofa or during a walk.
2. Always connected. This is hugely empowering for those that have experienced it.
3. Instant on. No time wasted waiting to boot up.
4. It’s whatever virtual device I need at the time. It’s a book, it’s a movie, it’s mail, it’s a web surfer, it’s a recording studio, it’s a medical device, it’s a clock radio, it’s a game, it’s a magazine, it’s music player, it’s a photo album.
Those four things make it a game changer for me. Your mileage may vary in that you may have different interests than mine.
It’s a medical device?
Google “VitalHub” and see one example of how the iPad is being used to replace several medical devices (albeit not the probes, etc).
Yep. One example is a blood pressure cuff that attaches to your iPad.
Apple as careful not to name it “Tri-Corder”
I’m with you on the reading front. That is my primary use case for a tablet. I haven’t bought one yet, and I won’t be buying the Fire, but I imagine I will have one by year-end. And the #1, #2 and #3 app I will be using is Read It Later (same thing as Instapaper). No more printing out web articles to read while riding the ex bike–just bring my RIL-equipped tablet. I’ll probably get a discounted Color Nook ($150 is my target price point).
Well, I own an iPad. I resisted the urge to buy a laptop for many years. They were always too heavy and cramped for me, and the control precision of the touch pads, balls and knobs use for manipulating the window-based interface felt like they put a distance from me and what I was doing. The relative performance hit I was taking for mobility was also something I did not like. I want a machine that can do it, fast, with a big screen, fast storage, lots of ports, and precision pointing devices so that I could be productive.
I could not hep the feeling that laptops were always about compromise.
Then came the iPad. It did not pretend to be the replacement for my big desktop; it just wanted to be its friend. Lightweight, fast, good with batteries, and an interface that is so immediate and friendly you just want to use it. I take pictures with it and mask them with Sketchbook Pro, draw quick diagrams with the same, take notes with Penultimate, write reports in IA Writer, and use Dropbox to send all these back to the desktop or other people. I can use them all as is, or when I get back to the desktop, I can use Creative Suite to integrate them all into web or PDF, which I can then access via the iPad, on the go, with Safari and iBooks.
The iPad gives me just what I need while I am out, and does it in a mobile-friendly way. The desktop gives me the power to integrate all of my information with no compromises. A laptop asks me to use a less powerful processor and weak pointing tools, then hook it up to a monitor and peripherals at the office for a compromised desktop experience. All it would do is save me a little money, which is wasted in the hassle and waiting.
As for the new Kindles? I love them. Some potential iPad users will get them instead, I guess, but the iPad does so much that I can’t see them eroding too much of iPad’s market. I think Mr. Cringley is on the right track about it competing more with the iPad touch than the iPad.
“But nothing’s quite like my Kindle. I’ve read more literature since I owned my kindle than in the previous five years. I think it’s the best invention since Gutenberg.”
Yes, because you can’t read on the iPad. iBooks, Kindle App., Nook app and dozens more like them don’t exist. Every magazine and newspaper under the sun are not there.
The eInk vs. IPS LED on the iPad choice has to do with time spent reading in the sunshine vs. time spent reading indoors or outside after dark — for me the last of those has been the killer app — reading in the evening after dinner out on the terrace is an unimaginable pleasure to me.
Of course the iPad does heck of a lot more (many things a laptop can’t practically do — try using a laptop while standing in a crowded subway — the iPad is no problem), but why spoil anyone’s prejudices.
Point taken.
Yeah. You can read on an iPad.
On a backlit screen.
No sale. Not for reading. Any backlit screen sucks for reading.
The Chinese of course, had invented the movable type printing press hundreds of years before Gutenberg.
So that is the perfect example of the first in the market place don’t always succeed.
“So’s a laptop. But nothing’s quite like my Kindle. I’ve read more literature since I owned my kindle than in the previous five years. I think it’s the best invention since Gutenberg.”
What this says is that most of what you read is novels. Fine, good for you.
But IF most of what you read is technical material (eg lecture notes, journal articles, math and physics textbooks) you have to have an iPad. A smaller screen is useless, and reading on a laptop in bed is a PITA because the keyboard gets in the way.
The thing about iPad is that it’s like, I don’t know, a fishing rod. I personally don’t see the appeal of fishing, and have zero interest in owning a fishing rod or learning anything about them. But I’m not so foolish as to claim that the fishing rod market is a bubble, or a product of advertising, or is soon going to be taken over by the upcoming golf market. iPad is your fishing rod — you don’t need its capabilities — but plenty of other people do.
Kindle Fire is a color Kindle. That’s great if Kindle meets your needs. But look at the Kindle “textbook” market sometime. It’s a pretty damn pathetic selection, none of which I would call a textbook at all. Kindle, even Fire, does not meet the needs of, for example, textbook readers, let alone professional people who have many PDFs they need to read.
But you can easily get a “new” iPad on Apple’s refurbed pages for $349 / $399, so for an extra $50 / $100, you get a far better device and 9.7 inch screen that doesn’t have advertising to try and support it.
Google: Apple iPad Special Deals
Saying that the $200 Fire is going to eat into iPad sales, is just like saying that the $200-$400 netbooks will eat into MacBook Air sales… which hasn’t happened.
The Fire and the iPad are geared to two completely different markets and users, at different price points.
The iPad will not affect sales of the Fire, and the Fire will not affect sales of the iPad.
However, the Fire does have the potential to negatively affect the sales of 7″ Android tablets that cost more than twice as much as the Fire. People who are shopping for a 7″ Android tablet on price alone, or those that don’t need more storage, cameras, Bluetooth, etc. found in other Android tablets, will be swayed toward the Fire.
Samsung, HTC, and other manufacturers of 7″ Android tablets will not be able to compete with the low price of the Fire tablet.
The Kindle Fire inverts the successful strategy of the iPad. Where Apple makes money on the device and sells content and apps at little I’ver cost, Amazon sells the Fire at a tiny margin but counts on leveraging it’s e-commerce business. This is beautiful business symmetry for the high and low ends, giving people what they want. The problem is that the thin strip in between is squeezed by these two elephants and has to be shared by several competing vendors who have neither the luxury of hardware nor content margins. It’s a crowded, uncomfortable place littered with the carcasses of recent flops.
Nothing runs Flash wonderfully! Beware the Amazon Distortion Machine!
You know who invented reality distortion. If not, google it.
Wasn’t Novarra doing some kind of optimized mobile browser with server-side transcoding? Like… 10 years ago?
Does anyone have a patent on that – yet?
I suspect that there are several patents in enough hands to make them worthless.
Agree about the browser thing being nothing new. I’ve had a bunch of Palm Treos over the years – from Treo 180 up to Treo 680 and I remember at least the Treo 180 browsing was through a Palm proxy. Thanks to Wikipedia this was easy to check:
Wikipedia – Blazer (web browser): “Blazer 1 was released in November 2000, and differentiated itself from other PalmOS web browsers at the time by its fast performance, progressive rendering, and support of WAP and i-Mode in addition to HTML. It utilized a proxy server which provided transcoding and image conversion optimized for small, underpowered handheld devices.”
The proxy was provided by Palm and improved for Blazer 2 (used by Treo 180). Taken offline in 2005.
So, 11 years later, what is actually new in Amazon’s solution – except, obviously, taking advantage of 11 years of progress and innovation (mostly not done by Amazon) and using modern buzz words like cloud, EC2, S3,…
And Bob, why the new Kindle? what about a myriad of Android tablets? None of them fit the criteria for your kid’s devices or the Kindle has a killer app you want = access to Amazon content? Or is it the concern about Android marketplace being less regulated and containing apps unsuitable for kids?
It’s the price, silly.
Ah, yes, silly me 🙂
Except in Europe it’ll cost EUR 249 with tax ($350) if it gets here at all and Amazon will again be clueless why it was a flop…
Blame VAT and the other ridiculous taxes that must be paid in Europe, not Amazon.
I don’t know about this.
> Boys don’t need a camera.
The boys whom I know occasionally use the camera for Facetime calls. It only works between Apple devices, but “everybody” has an Apple device, anyway. (Stupid Apple backtracking on their open source promises.)
Granted, the kids doing the video calls are mostly teens. Maybe your kids are still young enough that having odd devices that are incompatible with everybody else’s games is not a problem.
> Limited marketplace
I’ve heard some grumbling on Reddit about how Amazon treats app developers. Apparently, they try to control customer interactions more than Google does, and they treat developers especially badly during promotions and such, so that a loud minority has chosen to abandon the Amazon store. They may have improved things, and people may feel compelled to join them to serve the Kindle captive market, but that’s there, too.
I still think the Kindle Fire will be at least moderately successful. It should be good for consuming Amazon content, and hopefully it can be rooted, or at least load your own content. I just don’t think it will be cool for kids, by itself.
“I’ve heard some grumbling on Reddit about how Amazon treats app developers. ”
I’ve heard some things too. My experience is that Amazon has lived up to its end of the bargan. No complaints here.
Will Amazon’s Silk, S3 storage and EC2 cloud services work outside the US? Always an issue for us living in the rest of the world.
Amazon.com is only selling it in the USA initially. No mention yet if or ever it will be sold in other countries.
I have both a Motorola Xoom (10.1 inch screen, 32GB, $500) and a new Acer Iconia A100 (7 inch screen, 16gb, $350). Both have Android 3.2 and the same hardware. Both batteries last 10 hours but I use the Acer all of the time. My primary use is reading with some browsing and games. I like the 7 inch form factor and the lighter weight.
The fire’s prospects look pretty good, if their niche is distinct from the iPad, otherwise, it’ll be like Atari 7800 vs NES all over again.
What about the Kindle product line, which looks like a sorry mess right now?
Apple: choose 1. connectivity, 2. color, 3. storage – here you go
Amazon: choose b/w vs color but if you also want a 3G then you’re bound to bw only, no apps and by the way color is not e-ink. If you want big, then ok there’s DX but if you want big & color then sorry, no. Do you want it with ads or not? Will I be able to switch off ads later for a surcharge? Or the other way round? If you want e-ink you go b/w, but then do you want keyboard, touch, or nav keys?
Not quite a sign of confidence on amazon’s part. Rather hedging its bets on all fronts. If one’s spent 3 hrs on amazon’s site going through all the options, why not visit B&N’s too? Apple’s?
From a perspective of “what features do I want” the Apple method seems to make the most sense.
From a perspective of “how much do I want to spend” the Amazon gives more choice and become the single decision.
I prefer the Apple way but then again I don’t get the draw of American Idol… to each their own.
Fire, Silk, and the EC2 Cloud? Small form factor and price combined, all of these innovations hauntingly remind me of the innovations that were born at a little company called Danger with their game-changing platform called Hiptop – that allowed my team to instant message, have the nearly-full (2001) internet in our hands – in a cool flip screen device. The “shock and awe” of instant message anywhere, and being able to have the full internet in our hands – the ah-ha moments we all shared once we had the device were not lost on the founder of the company – enjoy his talk here and marvel at the 10 year old ideas – and applause to Amazon for innovating them anew: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eu-skd9t3TA
Personally, I dig it. Nobody likes a juggeraut (iPad) in anything. It’s about choice – now we have another! Great price point & functionality – & it will only get better.
Now let’s see what HP does with THEIR tablet!
As long as the “juggernaut” is as well crafted as the iPad, nobody seems to mind.
The Fire is going to be filled with “advertising” to recoup the low initial purchase price, so it’s not as good as it first appears. Plus it has a tiny, 7″ low resolution screen, so not the best compared to a previous generation iPad for $50-$100 more.
http://store.apple.com/us/browse/home/specialdeals/ipad
What am I missing? Where is the $249 iPad on the page your posting?
You are overlooking the feature set… the Fire is 7″, not 9.7″, so there is $100 less in value right there, so why not spend a bit more and get the best the industry has to offer?
Plus, you won’t have to deal with spam, advertising, the lack of Apps and the Android OS which we all agree is a mess from a usability & maintainability point of view.
The iPad runs all Kindle books, so not sure why they are introducing the Fire unless they are running scared of the Nook. The iPad is high end, feature rich, so if you can’t even afford $349, tablets probably aren’t ready for you.
The screen is only half of it
– no GPS
– no Bluetooth
– no sensors (compass, orientation etc)
– no screen rotation
– no camera or mic
– (as far as I can tell) no video out, or printing, or keyboard
etc etc
Amazon is not selling a cheap iPad, they are selling a color Kindle. That’s fine, but there is a reason it is the price it is, and an iPad is the price IT is.
That’s really the rub. Do I want to see an advertisement every time I pause the device for a while?
Plus, folks, suppose Apple pulls a rabbit out of the hat next week and shows an iPad mini– the 7″ tab–to go with their classic coke.
Let’s all wait until the device comes out, too. We’re going to discover glitches, gotchas, and problems galore.
Apple already does this data processing in the cloud, in a very limited way, on its iPhones and iPads. Try loading the RSS feed for this blog (http://feeds.feedburner.com/ICringely) in Safari on your iPhone; you end up on a mac.com server (http://reader.mac.com/mobile/v1/http%3A%2F%2Ffeeds.feedburner.com%2FICringely) where all the RSS-to-HTML stuff happens.
Without the cloud-based prefetch/preprocess, the device sounds much like the Barnes & Noble (nook) color reader, but just a bit cheaper.
I find it interesting that as wireless phone providers are now limiting the data flow, or charging more bucks for bits per month, the hardware is now starting to store everything on the web, with lots of wireless interaction to get your stuff. Not owning in one of the items in question, I don’t know if it will affect me financially, but I still prefer the security blanket of having all my material on my local computer, with the remote only for backup. And if I travel to some place that does not have wireless connections or surcharges an arm and a leg for connection time (and this occurs often enough that this could be a significant issue to me), I don’t have to wait until I get in range of wi-fi or ma Bell.
I do pay a small weight penalty. As the years have gone by and as I accumulate more files, my laptop weighs more, but it is a bearable burden. (I very much enjoy this little joke; thought I’d place it here for fun.)
Agreed that the back end has all been done before (Starband). What IS different is that with the back end doing all the heavy lifting, the browser (and apps) can be highly optimized (stripped to the essentials). While Danger did do the same thing before – back end and optimized client, it was a radically different www a decade ago, and Amazon’s approach is a good fit for the www of today.
I want Silk for my laptop!
And I think you’ll get it for your laptop. Otherwise they would have called it Kindle Silk.
I wonder if Apple’s big data center has a similar purpose for Safari (Mobile or otherwise). The same split browser tech would benefit DSL users just as much as mobile users, and it would give Apple Google-like data sets for web browsing preferences. Amazon could use the browsing data to improve recommendations for purchases on Amazon.com.
[…] add comment if you are logged out. Travis Hume Robert X. Cringely points out here https://www.cringely.com/2011/09/… that Silk is nothing new. He references that technique used for surfing over low band satellite […]
Amazon can still patent silk, the US is first to file now.
Sure, if you want a tablet full of advertisements & spam to offset the low initial price, and if you can get by with a tiny, low resolution screen and no control our your data, the Fire is for you.
Can’t you pay more and get an ‘ad free’ version? The other Kindles have that option I believe.
Ted,
According to Gizmodo ( http://gizmodo.com/5844648/how-amazons-kindle-fire-tablet-stacks-up-to-the-competition ) the Fire and the iPad have the same pixel dimensions (1024×768); the same pixel count in smaller dimensions = higher resolution (pixels/inch) actually. But smaller pictures. Maybe rougher on old eyes.
It helps Android in increasing the user base for apps. Any android derived device that still runs regular Android apps helps build out the ecosystem.
Except that the Kindle Fire is based on Android 2.3 which is not designed for tablets (that’s Honeycomb and above). Kindle Fire apps will be designedcto run on the weird screen resolution of the Fire (a careful ploy by Amazon?). It will add to the pool of Android developers and help those already coding for phones but it’s not going to do much for larger Android tablets.
Sir, do you always review products you have never seen? Do you always make consumer decisions based solely on lowest price? Do you ever eat your words?
Just asking.
And your point is… what? Readers expect me to comment on significant product announcements. My comment added information to the discussion. So what’s your problem, or do you just like to complain?
Wow. Nice fan club you have here.
What’s my point? Opinions like yours are worthless unless you have tried the product. I know that is a concept your fans might not care about because they love you. I don’t care how long you have been reviewing technology. Anyone looking for a serious opinion of the new Kindles will have to look elsewhere.
Party on.
Bob is providing new technical information about the device not on Amazon’s site. It’s obviously neither a review nor a recommendation, just his statement that he will order 3 for his kids for the reasons stated. He never said he tested it. As far as I know, he doesn’t review products, companies maybe, products, not that I’m aware of.
He’s doing his job. Mr. Cringley has forgotten more technology advances than most of us readers have experienced. Chill out, dude.
You are obviously new to his column. Stick around, you will learn a lot.
Odd criticism given that Amazon made a big splash and it’s fairly obvious what this device can do since it is breaking little new technical ground. It was odd that at the reveal no one was allowed to actually handle and use a Fire though.
You think it’s going to sell a pantload (I agree) – but are worried there won’t be enough games?
We’ll see how locked down the boot loader is and how tied to their kernel silk is. The lack of microsd makes dual booting harder if I wanted to kindle/silk sometimes and cyanogenmod at others. But even if it were tightly locked down.
More devices, means more audience, means more high quality app development. How would fire NOT be a win for Android?
No, he’s NOT worried that there will be lots of inappropriate games that he wouldn’t wand his young children to download on their own. He believes Amazon will have an interest in keeping it family-friendly, a la Apple’s walled garden.
Interesting that an IPS screen is all of the sudden suitable for reading (Fire). Reminds me that Amazon and Kindle readers spent a lot of time trashing the iPad et al for this very limitation.
Sell it for $199, and all sins are forgiven.
Not so sure that Apple will take a hit in actual output. Demand is still higher than supply and Apple’s ecosystem of hardware, software and content is still very desirable. If anything, I could make a better case that Amazon has finally found a fracture line in Google’s Android diamond.
Wanna bet that some of the other OEM’s don’t exploit this as well?
Demand is higher than supply? They have iPads in stock down at MY Apple store.
In a global economy, it is possible to have demand exceed supply and still have stock available in a particular retail store in the United States that you frequent due to distribution.
But you knew that.
Nice strawman though.
Agreed, but who other than Tim Cook & co. knows at this point if Apple has caught up with iPad 2 demand in China or not?
Maybe even he doesn’t know considering the iPad 2 3G just got released there within the last week, along with the opening of the first ever Hong Kong Apple Store and a new one in Shanghai. Demand is not a constant.
What is unequivocally true is that:
1) Apple will usually have stock of products in the United States first — while they are out of stock in other territories.
2) The iPhone (not to mention iPod) are sold in far more countries than the iPad — and this is at least partly because Apple hasn’t yet met demand, making further expansion sensible.
That’s proof, for sure! 🙂
Opera mobile (on iOS) already does Silk style split rendering.
That is all.
I can’t wait to not buy one.
RIM is toast. Why would anybody buy a dead-end RIM tablet over a Kindle Fire?
There’s a lot of talk flying around the web about the privacy implications of Silk after Amazon aggregates all the browsing data. You’re basically tying all of your browsing to your Amazon ID.
Good point, although I’ve kind of reached the “Who cares?” point when it comes to tracking my browsing, seems like everybody is in on that game.
Bob, how about a column as to whether or not this should be on our list of things to worry about?
So Bob, will each of your boys’ Kindles be associated with Dad’s credit card or Amazon account? I think your intended use is brilliant and on the mark — but for that fly in the ointment. And yet without that connection Amazon has a problem with their revenue scheme.
As an adult I’m less interested in the Fire than the Kindle Touch. While the Fire seems likely to be a poor iPad substitute, the Kindle Touch seems to offer something compelling that the iPad doesn’t — E-ink finally done right. And I could easily see the Touch as a great supplemental device for many existing ipad owners for only $99.
Lastly, any comments about the privacy and revenue implications of Silk? I’m sure it would be mighty useful for a major retailer to have all that information available about the online shopping and browsing habits of customers. From Amazon’s perspective it would be very tough not to peek, well-intended privacy policies notwithstanding. And an especially valuable tool to take on Google with. Very, very clever on Amazon’s part.
Thanks as always for the thoughtful speculation and analysis.
More competition for the iPad is good. It can only inspire Apple to create an even better product, and perhaps lower the price. While they are in no danger as yet in losing their huge lead in market share, they have room to maneuver in their margins.
Amazon is essentially saying they already know they’re going to make up their margin on the back end.
HP established that there is a huge pent up demand for a quality tablet at a lower price point than $400-500. They sold 25,000 or so at $500, then 225,000 at $100-150. In a day. The sweet spot is that $150-250 range, which was previously where netbooks ruled, but mostly failed.
Amazon is on the right track, although I’d really like to see the rumored larger Fire. For those who want something ultra-cheap, the original Kindle is still available and works perfectly fine. And now at an even lower price point! I expect B&N to adjust their pricing. I saw the Xoom on Woot for $350. Maybe HP will loosen up the supply of the TouchPad and let some more out to non-employees. Problem there is HP doesn’t have an ecosystem to generate the back end revenue they would need to subsidize continued production.
My wife wanted a Kindle, so maybe I’ll splurge for the Fire in November so I can play around with it, too. The price makes it a ‘What the hell’ purchase.
Just some thoughts:
1. Kindle Fire isn’t much of an iPad competitor. Its Kindle plus some Android, and color. Too small, too limited, 8gb local storage is kinda limiting with no 3G/4G if you want it to be productive.
2. I like the Kindle Fire despite this, because 7 inches is good for a color book reader that can do some web surfing, media consumption, and gaming. Price is good too,
3. Good luck on that “Apple lowering the price” thing. More likely, Apple will make iPad do more at the same price point. Relating to point 1, Kindle Fire will not put pressure on iPad. iPod touch however…
“Relating to point 1, Kindle Fire will not put pressure on iPad. iPod touch however…”
Which reminds, another year, another year without a viable iPod Touch competitor — is it that difficult, or no one thinks it is worth it?
And while I agree that the perceived value of the iPod Touch will suffer, the FIre is hardly a direct competitor to a pocketable device.
The fire look like a good deal … but it is another parameter of barbed wire along Amazon’s media pipeline. They are discounting the razor to sell you the blades. The books, music, movies all from them. $199 but Amazon Prime is another $75 annually and the books are pricey too. It is getting harder and harder to avoid these pipeline lock ins.
Its all about getting a qualified sales lead, developing a relationship, creating an easy pathway for sales, and developing and locking in a stream of income from a customer. Been done for thousands of years. Just ask bar owners.
A great Kindle Fire at a great price leads to a customer who wants more stuff on it. Having that Amazon Prime account (I guess, since I don’t have one) makes purchasing easier for you and guarantees steady money for them so they can provide the services and support for your Kindle. They just want to make you happy so you will continue spending money with them. No big conspiracy. Its how all successful companies work.
What’s interesting to me is the Vertical Integration going on here.
I believe thes analysis involved here is called ‘transaction costs’ analysis which was invented by Ronald Coase around 1960. In many ways this is the most important addition to classical economics since Adam Smith.
The reason? Economist couldn’t explain why or how large corporations exist when we could all be contractual agents. (This is even more important because the framers of our system rely upon free contract as the one governing principle – they didn’t anticipate the modern limited liability corporation [collective] – to be moderated by democracy [one man one vote, or political socialism] to level the playing field to avoid concentration of wealth and the dystopia it creates.
But Economist did realize, from study of trade that the more transactions occur, the higher the productivity and therefore the greater the wealth for society overall. So eventually Coase set his eye’s upon the transaction cost analysis.
The reason for corporations and large enterprise in general is that it lowers transaction costs. The lower the transaction cost, the more transaction can occur, the greater the productivity, the greater the wealth for everybody.
Think of transaction cost as ‘overhead’ to a transaction. Also, if you don’t manufacture, farm, mine or extract minerals, you are in the service industry (that’s about 80% of us) and the service industry exist only to reduce transaction costs.
I started out at EDS when Ross Perot was selling out to GM. In the 1960s and 70s, hardware was expensive. But we all know the story, hardware prices decline over time so that by 1980s, software and services became more important.
Even for Apple, the content is worth more than the device they make and sell.
The device is the portal to your store. By having your own device, you can shrink your transaction cost further. When I get on my lap top or net book, I can shop at a lot of stores other than Amazon. If I choose Amazon it’s because the cost is low and I trust them to execute (trust = low transaction cost), if I don’t trust them, I go to Target to buy the thing (for this very reason, I hate buying on Ebay).
Amazon could be, and maybe should be, giving these devices away for free. Then, build onto the device, very low transaction cost (ease of use + low cost + trust) and make sure it’s attractive, has many other uses then buying from Amazon (else I could upchuck the device for someone else’s).
If the price and transaction is low enough and the adhesion high enough, in ten years people could be buying 80% of their groceries from Amazon (maybe in partnership with local grocers)- and then we’ll be back to the 1960s where the milk man ran up and down the street everday delivering milk, except now he’ll be the Amazon man doing the same but for more than just milk.
So what we have going on is vertical integration from device, to content, to store, to delivery. And the lowest transaction cost in the aggregate is going to win out. And not all transaction cost are the same value: you can have a great device, low prices but high mis-trust of service.
Vertical Integration is an intriguing development.
Vertical integration was a big deal in the 1920s and 1930s when Henry Ford built the River Rouge plant: Ships hauling iron ore, coal, and rubber pulled up to the back end of the plant on the River Rouge, and cars pored out the front end. In the 1950s, 60s, and 70s, vertical integration was deemed to inflexible – and so assembly plants were dispersed to drive down net transportation cost of the final goods. Now we see Vertical Integration coming back.
Incidentally, low transaction cost is what made the Japanese business model so competitive in the third and fourth quarter of the 20th century: concurrent engineering, just-in-time manufacturing, and most especially, one minute change of dye (at the GM plant I worked at, used to take eight hours which compared to 1 minute, is extremely high transaction cost for changing a die) – to name a few but that’s another subject all together.
“But we all know the story, hardware prices decline over time so that by 1980s, software and services became more important. ”
Really? Damn, I’m still looking for the $1999.99 version of the 1970 Datsun 240 Z ($3000 in 1970 here in the US).
“(at the GM plant I worked at, used to take eight hours which compared to 1 minute, is extremely high transaction cost for changing a die) – to name a few but that’s another subject all together.”
Yea, Unions.
Yeah Unions.
Except, every volume production car that’s ever been imported into the United States was made by a Union hand. That would include the Japanese.
So is it only American unions you hate or all unions?
What about corporations? They are an ownership collective – do you hate them?
What about CEOs? The ‘solidarity of the CEOs’ where they serve on each other’s boards and give each other huge salaries at the expense of shareholders, employees and conusmers, and make huge contributions in the companies name to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce (CEO Supreme Soviet Polit Bureau) a lobbying organization on behalf of perpetuating the solidarity of CEOs (why do you think GMs CEOs for decades opposed rational medical insurance system even though health care cost were eating its revenue? – it was the solidarity of the CEOs) .
What about the American Medical Association, the best union in the world – the population of the U.S. has more than doubled since WWII, but the number of seats in Medical schools has only gone up incrementally, giving Doctors huge bargaining power?
You’ve been programmed to hate only American unions and only those American unions that help bolster the middle class. You might as well hold an m80 firecracker in your teeth while you light the wick.
Obviously if other countries Unions function better it’s not Unions per se, but the organizational arrangements adopted that surround unions. Incidentally, Hyundai has one of the more militant unions in the world today, with ties to communist.
“…to name a few but that’s another subject all together.”
Fair enough, you put me in my place. How about some enlightenment. Why would it take 8 hours and not one minute?
As always, your logic is impeccable! For example, it’s probable that you’ll buy three bicycles, one for each of your kids. That’s got to have an effect on the automobile industry since they both do the same thing! Quick! Sell your Ford stocks and buy Schwinn!
Your comparing apples with …. refrigerators?
I’d be curious to see what the NYTimes looks like on it. I tried looking at their web site last night on a Nook. It was awful with links crowding on top of links.
What I’m uncomfortable about is Amazon acting as a one stop shopping place. At least with the iPad I can use books etc.. I download from other stores. My impression is that its tricky to do with Amazon.
The fire won’t be as easy to use as the standard kindle (for reading books) so clearly its for music and video, so Bezos is right to expect heavy amazon users to buy both.
Apple of course, could always use its new billion dollar server farm for doing some of this.
Apple will take a hit, but the other Android tablet manufacturers will be crushed. Kindle Fire totally undermines the Android tablet space. To Apple this is a speed bump. To Google/Motorola and Samsung and Asus and (the list goes on) this is an “Oh $#!+” moment.
It is like buying three Yugos instead of one Chevy!!!
Personally, I think this is just the beginning. My net book cost me $225. Except for the touch screen, it’s a vastly more complex mechanical device – with a hard drive and key board. With no moving parts, the price of these kinds of devices should soon be around $100 if the volume is there.
And latent volume is certainly there. How long will it be before tablets are the standard issue for schools and each desk has a docking device? At that point, the cloud is very important too, because each kid will break, crush or lose his tablet at least once in his lifetime as a student.
As for my self, I’m hoping for total digital integration (phone, tablet, reader, media etc…) on a device about 5 inches long with maximum screen, that I can mount on my wrist, like a large watch using a sort of Mareware sport convertable holder suitable for the narrowist part of my wrist to mount on al la “Predator” style – with a quick remove blue tooth device for talking or listening. I can then lift my wrist one a subway to watch a movie, see who’s calling me, or read a magazine. I can then answer the phone dick tracy style by talking into it or if I deem the conversation personal or want to listen to the audio, I snap off the blue tooth device and attached it my ear to listen and talk through. That size device, by the way, will also fit in most pants pockets or purses. The closest thing to it now is the Samsung Infuse (4.5 inch screen) or Dell Streak 5. A seven inch screen is, of course, better, but that size is too big and cumbersome for most wrists.
“I can then answer the phone dick tracy style by talking into it or if I deem the conversation personal or want to listen to the audio, I snap off the blue tooth device and attached it my ear to listen and talk through.”
We’ll be THINKING replies one day without verbalising. Make all the tin-foil hat jokes you want. Just check out this patent from 1974: 3,951,134.
Your kids will be disappointed with the Kindle tablets. It lacks technologies that your kids are bound to be accustomed to, even if they don’t know it – many games use the compass, accelerometer, gyroscope or gps – all of which are standard to the iPod touch and iPad.
How will the Silk Browser handle secure sessions?
I’m not sure I want to give my banking login to Amazon.
7” is too large to be pocketable, but too small for web surfing, where most media companies arrange their sites with shards of advertising all over with the real content zigzagging around them. It may be more comfortable for reading books, where a sane person actually designs content to flow naturally, but most of my reading on tablets are tilted towards the web.
A good video camera is also a great feature to have for long distance video chats with far flung family members. In a few years I suspect not having an ability to video chat in business or personal settings will be as acceptable as lack of text messaging would be on a cell phone today. I don’t think many will be cross shopping of iPod touches, iPads and Kindle Fires: different gadgets for different market segments. Still, I expect Kindle Fire to have an impact, but mostly felt by MS, Google, Samsung and RIM.
How can 7″ be too small for web browsing when 100M browse the web on their iPhones every day?
I think the Fire will sell a lot in the short term and then fade as people realize how limited they are. For people who are always shopping on Amazon.com it may be good. For the rest of us not so much.
I’m actually looking forward to the iPad 3 with double resolution display. I use the iPad for work presenting things to customers and the higher resolution will be fantastic for the kinds of data I need to present.
I’m curious about how well people read on those little 7″ displays. On the iPad I bump the font size up to help my eyes. On something as small as a 7″ display I imagine I’d be constantly scrolling the page.
Does Apple have enough to simply buy Amazon?
Why not go for it?
On another front, does anyone know what the ereading app will be on this little, pint-sized, hard to view movies device?
Yeah, yeah, I know, the Kindle app… but will it be the same old, same old– with little user control and *forced* sharing of your comments and highlights if you want those features?
I’m sure it will sell just like HP’s TouchPad due to its lower price.
BTW, I really enjoyed some of your documentaries from the mid 90s. They were immensely informative and entertaining!
Your argument about cost is a fair one, but don’t paint Apple to be the over charging bearer of the “Apple Tax” too quickly. Remember, first, that Apple undercut ALL of the competition with the original release of the iPad. Samsung even had to drop its release price for the Galaxy Tab (from $800 to $600 if I recall correctly).
Even cell phones given away for free with bargain basement calling plans have a camera. The move of not including a camera and mic really surprise me. Especially with Google+ doing video chat on their mobile app now.
I’m amazed at how so many have arrived at a conclusion about a device that no one has or will be able to touch for at least 45 days. Maybe it will be great or maybe it will be a piece of junk. The mystery is how it got priced at $200 when an allegedly very similar Playbook was at least $500. This will be a very interesting topic by the end of November.
Yeah, it is the price, and I don’t think Amazon is loosing money on selling these. If you look at HP when they dropped the price of their tablet, the market said they were going to take a $200 million write off assuming the production cost was about $300 each. However, HP later came out and said it was a $100 million write off, so they were only paying about $200 a piece for the big 10 in tablet.
Cringely,
I think you should ask your kids what they want first. You might be surprised when they say that they want an iPad to share instead of the Fires.
Incidentally, I have both an iPad and a Kindle. They do not compete. The Kindle is great for what it does: provides a good reading experience for long form text. It is my goto device for reading on the beach. But the iPad is so much more capable. Yes it is good for long form reading (not just from Amazon). But it is also great for reading and annotating PDFs (I’m a scientist, I’m doing this constantly), note taking, is great for email and browsing, and all the other little things. In short, it is an all purpose portable computer.
By all accounts, the Fire will have a last generation processor, crippled Android, who knows about gpu.. 8 gigs? Seriously? May be great for Amazon content but anything else?
I wish Amazon luck but this is no iPad killer or even a competitor. So far, nothing is.
Jeff Bezos looks like the Kevin Spacey version of Lex Luthor in that picture.
I’d like to get two Fires, one to play with/use/etc and one to hack. One thing Kindle, iPad, iTouch or any other tablet or netbook has the potential to become is Douglas Adams’ vision of The Hitchhikers Guide To The Galaxy, Google, or something like what Google provides, services-wise, is part of the puzzle, the openness touted by EFF, the GPL and Richard Stallman is another part (all information should be free and shared freely) and another leg is an amazingly intuitive interface, one that even a fourteen month old child could figure out in less than ten seconds. The device should be dirt cheap to produce and distribute. It should be the utmost most useful tool, not merely perceived as a toy. Right now most tablets have excellent potential as enterprise and health & medical field devices. They should have instant multi party communication functionality.And it should be amenable to hacking by anybody who needs to fashion something on the go – no restraints.
The new kindle will not so much take sales from the iPad as it will from the B&N Nook which is it’s real competition. I’m thinking more iPad folks value multi-functionality and the apps which are well-entrenched on the iPad and WORK and have been proven to WORK, seamlessly and effortlessly.
It’s about the user experience and the iPad is not a desktop,laptop or notebook either but a different paradigm.
This may be one time Bob has seemingly aimed well, but slightly missed the target.
Just one time? Many times! It’s part of my charm.
Errr … what if Apple comes announces in October that they are coming out with an iPod Touch-X that costs $300. It would have the exact same spec as an iPod Touch except for a 7-inch screen and be able to run iPad apps. Consumers would have all of the experience of iPod/iPad and not be tied in to Amazon’s system.
Would this take the wind out of the Kindle Fire’s sail?
Let’s hope they do!
The only really important immediate question is, “Will the demand for the Kindle Fire outstrip the supply.” At $200, this is an easy buying decision for millions and millions of average Americans with limited disposable income, where a $500 buying decision is not and easy one to make.
Can they ship 20 million devices in the first 6 months? I think we will see the orders will be there … but only if takes less than 10 weeks after ordering for the product to be delivered to the customer.
But then again, this could be the next VW which, when it first came out, people who wanted one would wait months and months to get one.
There will likely not be a “seven-incher.” Apple isn’t going to scale iOS to anything other than a whole multiple of its current display resolutions, because the results of such things are visibly inferior and that would compromise the user experience.
Apple doesn’t believe that bigger is necessarily better, nor does it indulge in the practice of other hardware makers who fill shelves with barely-distinguishable variants of similar products.
On first glance, your point seems to make sense. Sure, bigger screens for the kids! Three for the price of one. But then you start to think about it.
What those kids will be using and wanting is apps. iOS apps, to be precise. Their friends at school will be telling them about the next cool thing; and they will want it desperately. Some friend of yours who is also a parent will be showing you the awesome new educational app his kids love…for iOS. Meanwhile your kids will have a great little web browser and video player with no apps. They will probably put it down and dig out their old iPods.
When I watch my daughter and her friends play with their iPods and iPads, all they use is dozens of apps. And it’s great! It takes them away from the passive watching of the Rapunzel over and over and over again and actually gets their minds working. My daughter is practicing writing Japanese characters and learning about numbers and basic math — she is almost 5. And these apps don’t break the bank either. The Japanese writing app was $.99 and occupies hours of her time.
Is a portable web browser — even with flash — a great thing for a 5, 7 and 9 year old? Not so much. There are some useful educational flash websites out there, but all in all it’s pretty shady stuff. Much of it full of advertising and spin to sell Disney products to those young minds. Also, check out how well a lot of kids flash apps run on 1024×600 displays with touch instead of mouse.
If you do follow through with this article and really buy the 3 Amazon tablets; I will make a prediction. Within a few months they will have begged or borrowed an iPad (yours maybe?). They will share it with no shortage of arguments. Soon there will be more than one iPad.
It’s great to imagine a world where developers flock to Amazon’s tablet or the fragmented Android marketplaces; but the reality is that Apple’s 3 year jump with their App store isn’t going to make competition easy. To make matters worse, the competition isn’t doing a very good job of drawing in developers with fragmentation and disposable products (lack of OS updates; buy the new model!). Apple has 500,000 apps and 10 billion downloads. That’s a lot of catch up.
I think the Amazon tablet is a nice upgrade to the Kindle concept. It will be a good reading device, and also a good media player and browser. It’s a great distribution channel for their content. But for them to make it an full “do everything” device like the iPad would take more development and R&D than Amazon will be willing to dedicate.
Ah, Robert…so many years I’ve been enjoying your crazy ramblings against Apple. I hope you keep trolling forever. Why must I feed you 🙂
Well as Bob might say, “What’s the killer app?”
The spread sheet for the PC, email for the internet…
What’s the killer app for an iPad or any pad for that matter. So far all I see is a toy.
“a toy.”
Yes, listen to what Bob said. He’s buying three of these toys for his children. Many other parents will follow suit. The Fire is a good form factor for children’s small hands too. And the price is right. The services will be purchased as gifts for birthdays, Christmas, reward for good grades, etc.
Unlike a bicycle, you’ll probably never trip over one of these in the driveway.
So yeah- Christmas gifts for kids, a toy 🙂
Yes, and like all toys, the kids will be disappointed at getting the inferior fire rather than the “cool” apple product. And for us grown ups, why would you want a limited device like a kindle? When the kindle app for apple came out, kindle became irrelevant.
And the Asus eee121 slate is the start of REAL tablet computing.
What’s the killer app for Tablets? The form factor. It’s like claiming that laptops are mere toys because they don’t have a particular app and thus won’t be big sellers.
I’m sick and tired being told that tablets are “toys” and for “consumption only”.
In business travel, I leave my laptop behind and just bring an iPad with a BlueTooth keyboard. A big bonus is that I don’t have to take out my iPad and display it for the TSA. Other bonuses include fitting on a airplane tray table and the light weight.
With my iPad, I can use Pages and Keynote and create the presentations I need. Sure, they’re not as full featured as Microsoft Office, but they work just fine. I can also use my email, Skype, IM, and I have my calendar and itinerary with me.
I can’t program on it unless I ssh from my iPad to a Unix system. Being a developer, this is rather limiting. But, I normally don’t need to program when I am visiting remote sites and working on proposals. I suspect that many other people find the iPad and other tablets as great travel companions.
If you’re that frustrated, you may already suspect that these are not very compelling reasons to buy a “third device,” and do not greatly differentiate the iPad from an eReader. As a developer, I’m positive you still have a laptop. Is creating basic presentations on the plane really worth $400? And by the way, you don’t have to take your laptop out for the TSA, either, if it’s in the proper kind of bag.
This is the fabled, long-coveted “color Kindle.” That’s enough, in my book, and a book is what it is. Additionally, you can write on the screen, for example to annotate PDFs: Amazon has been selling RepliGo, ezPDF, and several other readers on their App Store for months. Given that this is the only practical use I’ve found for an iPad so far, I might well decide to keep my $300 and buy a Fire.
AMAZON, itself (and all the electronic media they have) is the killer app for the Fire.
The surfing technology you mention is a central part of Opera Mini (see https://www.opera.com/mobile/), which is used by more than 100 million users, primarily in Asia, to minimize data traffic cost on their simple smartphones.
(OFFTOPIC) My wife and I both use Opera Mini every day on our Net10 LG 900G feature phones. Got them both on sale at Radio Shack for $29.95 each (1/2 price). I then immediately installed Opera Mini, Google Maps, Facebook Mobile,RSSReader and Gmail Mobile on the phones. We pay approx. $24 per phone per month incl. all fees,etc. by buying refill PINs from callingmart.com. When they are on sale at 7% off plus regular 1% discount plus callingmart credits (1%) and with no taxes I often pay less than 22.50 per phone per month. This gives us 750 minutes each per month for phone,text, and internet. Most months I have 100+ minutes left. If that’s not enough you can buy unlimited (they put 50k minutes on your phone for 30 days) for $50 a month. This phone does everything I need, I just can’t justify an Android or iPhone, if I could I would because I LOVE toys but this is too good to pass on. This phone is basically a high quality Blackberry styled clone. Mine is over a year old, hers 8 months. The batteries last about a week between charging and there are many java games available. NO, I have no connection with Tracfone/Net10, I just see the value in their service. This is a GSM phone but if you don’t like AT&T they offer many CDMA (Sprint/Verizon) phones. Either way Opera Mini is an incredible breakthrough for those of us who only use our phones to check email and browse a little. I can load and start reading Gmail on the Mini w/ an EDGE connection faster than my sister’s Droid can. If there was no Opera Mini I would buy a cheap prepaid Android because WAP browsers are useless!
How do you “lightly” run over something with a vehicle? How is it that the iPod is still functional? Sorry, couldn’t resist. Interesting article.
That was a compressed-air prototype.
Yeah, but…now your kids know what they are getting for Christmas!
This technique, however well implemented, probably won’t speed up web apps very much or any dynamic web pages for that matter, since they require building the page on the server then shipping it, /fait accompli/, to the browser.
So not only will the user have to wait for the page to be built, there may actually be an additional delay (however fast the connection) to ship the page to the browser.
So rather than seeing the page being built there will be some delay and *bing* the page appears all at once.
Referring back to the Opera Mini that is exactly how it works. Open Mini, click on one of the 9 Start Page links (like on regular Opera) there is a 1/2 second to 2 second delay, then the whole page appears at once. It’s not a big deal.
I hope you get a little compensation from Amazon for your advertising pitch, because you just sold one to me…
What about secure sessions (HTTPS). Will they be intercepting and prefetching those too? Will they see and store my passwords, my finances, my porn, my criminal activities? Can they be subpoenaed?
Steve Gibson has discussed those issues in this week’s podcast of Security Now! He says we’ll have to wait until he receives his (when it starts to ship) for the full story.
Yes, yes, yes, and yes.
What’s the business case? If Amazon sells 50M of these per year, then they have to make, in profit, an additional $2.5B per year to make up the $50 loss per device. Or, let’s say half that, $1.25B per year if the device has a 2 year life. This has to be in addition to what those customers would have spent anyway if they just used their laptop for shopping or their eReader for books.
Profit margin is currently 2.6%, revs = $40B. To get $1.25B in profit they need $48B in additional revs generated by the Fire. How is that possible? How can they afford to further develop this device? The stock price will take a huge hit.
I’m sure Amazon appreciates your cluing them in on their loss. Guess they expect to make it up in volume. 🙂 Besides it is a tax deductible expense that makes more business sense than a charitable donation.
$10 loss per tablet. Easily made up in subscriptions. See slashdot.
Amazon Prime membership @ $80.year
Kindle book purchases
Audio and video sales
I think that the average consumer will easily spend more than $40 a year on Amazon razor blades to put on the Amazon razor. It’s the Atari sales model all over again.
Just randomly Bob … I miss the podcast version of these! I hope you resume them soon 🙂
The real benefit for Amazon with Silk is that they will be able tie every single web request to your Amazon ID. The account profiling and product targeting they can do with that has to be worth $50 per affluent tablet-buying customer.
Absolutely! So they know what you read (tied to you individually), what products you look at on Amazon, what kind of reviews you make, what you look at on the web, where you live, and what you search for on Google. They would be in a position to block messages like chartbeat and doubleclick, which would speed things up for the user, so they would have a lot of leverage with these companies. Surely they can think of a way to make money out of this.
[…] costs just $199, and given that it has many of the iPad’s capabilities, some bloggers such as Robert X. Cringely have suggested that it could become the iPad’s first legitimate rival. It’s even less […]
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Factoring into the cost-benefit exchange, I read on Register Hardware that Amazon doesn’t care if it’s rooted, and may not even bootlock it. That ought to sell a few additional units; the Nook already has a healthy little community going. I wouldn’t be caught dead taking a photo with a tablet in public, as it is!
I am also really interested to see what happens with the Kindle Fire, I thought it was a reallly cool idea and even better with the addition on some android apps. But like you said we really won’t know until we can touch it.
[…] Kindle Fire: Take three tablets and call me in the morning Right now my boys, ages 5, 7 and 9 all have iPod Touches that have served them well despite having been many times lost, spilled on, and in one case very lightly driven over by a car. But the Touches, which also cost $199 as I recall, are getting old, their batteries recharged so many times to where they now barely last an hour. It’s time for something new, which in the eyes of my boys means something better. […]
“What I’m not sure I see coming from this, frankly, is any boost for Android, which is hiding somewhere inside the Kindle Fire, potentially generating royalties only for Microsoft.”
Did Amazon buckle under and sign a “royalty” agreement with Microsoft? I hadn’t heard that piece of news.
Yes, it is true that some other, smaller, and weaker handset companies are “paying protection” to Microlimp. As far as I know, Amazon hadn’t and probably wouldn’t, being able to afford their own giant team of high-priced attorneys to defend the specious claims of patent violation which M$ is claiming against certain smaller companies.
BTW, isn’t it called the FIRE because one will be so tightly linked to Amazon that with 1-Click ordering this thing will “burn a hole in your pocket”.
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Crimson raspberries are nothing completely new in terms of their health benefits, nor usually are ketones. The truth is, raspberry ketones have been on the FDA GRAS (normally named safe) checklist considering 1965. Which begs a issue factors the actual sudden surge along with enthusiasm adjoining reddish raspberries along with their unique ketones?
Dr . Ounce . of, about his or her popular day-time TV show focused on healthful assistance in direction of major a higher quality lifestyle by superior nutrition, workout along with supplements; a short while ago shown a exhibit called “5 Body fat Busters, for 5 Physique, in five Days” in addition to presented her primary recommended slimming pill and factor seeing that strawberry ketones.
Also presented seemed to be fat reduction pro Lisa Lynn, who displayed a number of her particular buyers along with ability to lose weight quickly along with raspberry ketone supplements. Generate Oz spoken extremely extremely associated with ketones out of reddish raspberries as well as described these individuals as a miracle fat burner inside of a flask that can help improve your metabolic process shed too much excess weight.
Almost everyone affiliate reddish raspberries using divine tastes plus special bouquet rather then obtaining fat reduction outcomes. However it’s a raspberry ketones that happen to be mostly liable for his or her odor as well as tastes.
The thing that makes your raspberry ketone weight-loss doable will be the affect on a new bodily hormone often known as adiponectin, which usually of course enhances your current metabolic process steps your body straight into considering you’re slim. The particular ketones coming from red raspberries breakup fat deposits within your skin cells better that helps burn off fat more effectively.
The first broadcasting with the TV show way back in March Next year was A few ways to supercharge your metabolic process and cease putting on the weight. Then at some point re-aired this display at the end of Drive Next year and also since that time both of these exhibits are already taken to popular advertising in addition to conversation, there have been a surge associated with decisions as well as selections if determining that raspberry ketone item to obtain.
Many of these organizations along with their completely new raspberry ketone health supplements are only attempting to take advantage of the excitement plus enthusiasm developed by Physician Oz of. As a way to get the highest possible health improvements raspberry ketones can provide towards unwanted weight decline desired goals, you have to choose between a credible business who resources their 100 % natural ingredients together with the most suitable creation procedures with the welfare in your mind.
Soon after examining each of the Raspberry Ketone Products available on the web, there is the one which is head and shoulders above what’s left known as Raspberry Ketone Pure.
Raspberry Ketone Natural functions 6 medically explored elements which in turn assist fat reduction for example; raspberry ketones, African mango, acai berries, resveratrol supplement, grape fruit plus kelp components. Fortunately they are the Eee (Ddd) accredited corporation by having an A+ ranking and still have been in business more than Ten years with past good results and products inside other parts of nutrition and health.
Remember, there are actually three most important basics which usually any individual ought to choose to follow regardless of eating plan as well as complement you decide to follow.
One) Water ( space ) keep in mind which nothing at all switches normal water, not soft drinks, never flavored coffee, or perhaps fresh fruit juices.
Two) Industry : no matter what weight loss pill of your liking, determining to become dynamic inside ingesting the wholefoods diet regime rich in produce, fruit, plant seeds, nut products, legumes, dark brown hemp, along with fresh new meats is going to wild weigh every vitamin supplements available.
3 or more) Relaxation as well as Rest : having the undeniable fact that the body maintains, replenishes, in addition to fixes alone the top when in profound rest along with relaxation is always anything we will need to point out to ourselves associated with each and every day.
Currently there are numerous Raspberry Ketone items online with all the growing market and high requirement Doctor Oz brought on. Right after watchful homework as well as required research, Raspberry Ketone Natural is the winner finest in course one of several wide range of cheap, non-effective diet pills.
If you’re looking to lose weight naturally in conjunction with employing improved nutritional routines plus life-style decisions, this Raspberry Ketone Real nutritional supplement generally is a wise choice for you in making starting up right now.
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I use the kindle app often on my ipad thats the main reason i am still using my ipad daily.