My last prediction laid out a pretty aggressive 2011 computing strategy for Apple. But it is just that — a computing strategy — not a media strategy, and Steve Jobs is clearly the most important media mogul on the planet right now, and maybe the most fragile. This latter point is important, because Steve sees himself as having both a unique mission and a frail constitution. He can’t wait to get things done, which is why the next couple years will be probably the most important in Apple’s history.
Who needs a 1,000,000 square foot data center? That’s big enough, I calculate, to support 800 million simultaneous users. Who the heck needs a facility like that? It’s overkill for even the bold Apple plan I laid out in prediction #9. But go back to the beginning again and think about bufferbloat, which I think will be the defining technical issue for the next couple years.
Bufferbloat stands between Steve Jobs and media domination.
Then remember prediction #4, that your cable ISP probably won’t fix bufferbloat because it protects two current profit centers — TV and IP phone service. This will limit the success of Netflix and Hulu and other TV competitors. It will limit Apple’s Carolina strategy, too, unless Steve does something very bold to circumvent the problem.
What do you pay today for cable TV? Let’s guess that Apple will use that new data center to serve audio and video streams carrying music and TV and movies maybe for a flat subscription fee. I predict there will be price tiers based on resolution and some content and/or earlier access will go for higher prices. Apple trailers, for example, come in 480p, 720p, and 1080p, so those tiers become no-brainers ($59.95, $69.95, $79.95 per month possibly — remember this is Apple). And 1080p-60/7.1? That’s $99.95.
And how does Steve introduce this service? I think he takes some of that $50 billion in cash, buys an existing cable TV company and essentially shuts it down. He only has to buy one to make the splash he likes — a splash that is also a kick in the face to Google with its metro gigabit networks. Once the people of North Carolina get the real Apple TV, how long before other cable subscribers simply give up their TV services, forcing their cable companies to become pure bit-schlepping ISPs for Apple?
Apple’s data center is in Maiden, NC, which is served by Comcast. No luck there. But it isn’t far from Time Warner, which I believe Steve would see as an acceptable purchase costing around $30 billion.
A few things
1. I have been thinking along these lines too. The big tech cos have been butting up against the telecom and cable providers for too long, something has to give. This could be it.
2. But I also imagine Google buying a phone company, maybe sprint, they have a big LTE network.
3. Who wants cables into your house, LTE wireless at 21 mbits is fast enough to offer TV service.
4. But the Media co’s won’t give google what they need to offer that kind of service unless apple forces them.
5. So if Apple buys Timewarner, Google buys sprint or T-Mobile and starts offering TV and broadband over the air.
I there’s one thing that mobile networks have taught us over the last 10 years, it’s that getting mobile broadband network technologies to deliver on their promisses is like extracting blood from a stone.
2007 was supposed to be the Year Of Wimax. The fact is mobile bandwidth is a shared resource for everyone in the same radio cell. Every MB/s being used by your neighbour is a MB/s that isn’t available for you. Also every time you improve the technology and extract more bandwidth, it’s susceptibility to interference or obstructions get worse until soon you’ll need rooftop antennas to get the best domestic service. The technology is improving, but the basic physics is unyielding and improvements are excruciatingly slow – on a geological scale compared to Internet Time and traffic is rising vastly more quickly than available bandwidth.
I’ve never had, and doubt anyone has ever had, a wireless-to-wireless phone call that was a good as land-to-land.
@Robert Young: wireless doesn’t have to be better than landline. Heck, it doesn’t even have to be good…just good enough. Bill Gates taught us that important lesson many years ago.
But that’s one of the many differences between Gates and Jobs. Jobs will want top shelf service, especially if he thinks he can make it a single point of communication that he can bill for. If you are only doing shoddy quality that fills gaps you can’t expect the world to count on it or pay Apple rates. Well, the True Believers might, but the rest of civilization will only come along if the service is actually better.
Hi Robert;
As someone else pointed out it only has to be good enough.
Mine generally is. In fact I can’t remember a time in the last 10 years when it wasn’t over my cell network.
Aside from that though are people still making a lot of phone calls? I use a couple of hundred minutes a month on my cell when I’m being particularly chatty, most of that off prime time network hours.
The bulk of my cell phone usage is text and data. And that, with Sprint, is quite nice.
Once carriers move voice over to 4G VOIP I suspect the quality will improve vastly as will data connectivity.
In regards to #2, definitely not Sprint… they don’t have an LTE network, they have a WiMax network, and have only stated that they “could add LTE” sometime eventually.
(5) there ain’t enough air. that can’t work. 99+ percent of all charted radio bandwidth is under the control of public-service and military ownership in the US. they don’t give one hertz back to anybody for anything. never have. will fight harder than they ever did against the Nazis to keep every on-air bleep they’ve got.
even if you shut down everything else, you STILL don’t have enough bandwidth to put a cableco on cell.
besides, they’d then be following a bunch of broadcasters around, instead of leading them. see, that model already exists. and it costs nothing for the one-way service.
Well, you forget that there are several bands – CB, and a few others – that are authorized for personal and public uses that are not quite under FCC control. Wireless network devices (e.g. Bluetooth, Wireless A/B/G/N/S) work in these ranges only. So do the phones, baby monitors, etc – most all your wireless consumer devices.
Dear Bob:
This sort of reminds me of your suggestion a while back that Apple should buy Blockbuster.
Could it be argued that Time Warner Cable will eventually suffer from the kind of obsolescence that has overtaken Blockbuster? (Understand, I’m not including the content aspect that TW owns).
Frail constructions aside, a smarter media play for Apple might be to start from scratch as they have done with iTunes and their App stores. They already have many of the components in place for content distribution (cloud facilities, online stores, AppleTV, software, etc). Perhaps they have learned something from the initial launch fiasco of MobileMe.
Just wondering.
Steve doesn’t have the kind of time. The only way to be truly disruptive is to DISRUPT. Buying a major player would do that. Anything less wouldn’t.
— Steve doesn’t have the kind of time.
His cancer cure is not true? If so, I missed the memo. Why else would he be short of time?
May be this should have been a separate prediction:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_technews/20110117/tc_yblog_technews/steve-jobs-taking-another-medical-leave-coo-tim-cook-in-charge
The flaw in this scenario? I don’t watch that many movies . . . it’s not even as good as the matrix, and who wants to live in the matrix? Remember the Apple Super Bowl Ad? I wonder if Steve does . . .?
Give up cable? Done. I have AT&T DSL, Tivo Premier, an antenna, an HDTV, Apple TV & Netflix. Gives me 95% of what Comcast offers at a fraction of the price.
I have that without the TiVo. Not missing anything either. Except crap I don’t watch anyway.
What Apple should do is partner with Google and help build out Gigabit bidirectional internet. That would speed the death of cable TV, DSL, Telephones, etc. Probably kill off webhosts like 1&1 too.
One missing word here: network
One giant data center does not make a content delivery network. Apple would still have to peer in order to get decent qos of all those bits, like they do today with Akamai. The content must be distributed across the nation so clients are fetching data across so many hops, right?
No, but there’s plenty of dark fibre still out there that Apple could buy to trunk to the cable head ends of the various Time-Warner franchises. I don’t see Apple as being interested in the content of TW, and I see that as a potential antitrust impediment, so if something like this were to come to pass, they may buy just TWCable, although that might be the most profitable piece and TW may not be willing to let it go.
Another possibility is that Apple could build out their own WiFi network, or collaborate with an existing provider (AT&T) to optimize streaming from the North Carolina data center. (My company is also building a large data center in King’s Mountain, NC, a neighbor for both Apple and Google).
Why North Carolina? Relatively cheap real estate, relatively cheap power, relatively mild weather, relatively educated available workforce, highly motivated local governments.
What North Dakota did to improve credit cards, North Carolina seeks to do to improve telecom? I can’t wait.
Apple is NOT going to light dark fiber. that costs a ton. it almost bankrupted Qwest when they tried to light up all of Europe and Asia at the same time.
Apple is going to get their bandwidth from somebody else with a lot of lit fiber. that big-data business is a little droopy. they can’t name their price, but it’s a lot cheaper than putting their own LOADMs and repeaters out there.
Time Warner doesn’t own Time Warner Cable anymore. They spun it off to shareholders a couple years ago.
There has got to be more to life that soma . . . er, I mean Apple content . . . .
There will be plenty of other content aside from movies that will jump onboard this kind of thing and honestly if the current ISPs and cable types are holding back whats possible then, they have to go, or get up to speed its that simple. Its simple evolution at work here. Also all the Apple money in the bank is just way more that a hedge against current economics. I think Steve sees the current business model thats in control of media now as just old and out of date, now there is a target on their back. Cool!!!
I’ll believe it when I see it. Steve won’t allow fart apps and wikileaks apps on the app store. What kinds of other content will North Carolina deem to be acceptable for us?
movie apps. entertainment apps. iMove, or whatever they call the next stage after the Wii and Kinect controllers, when they can make it for ten bucks and sell it for 200, with clear over white cases. multiplayer online gaming. online data repositories, aka mirroring everything you find through Google now.
iThingies will be the gateway. iGotcha will be the business. and don’t forget Apple has a huge elephant foot in the door, Jobs is the largest stockholder in Disney.
All that money in the banks won’t mean diddly squat when the US dollar goes down the tubes. (Oops, is that supposed to be a state secret?)
If it does, so goes China, Brazil, India, Russia and all those other countries that don’t make stuff for their citizens. They ship it all here. To get dollars, since we don’t make any stuff they want. So, they’ll see to it that the dollar stays nice and cozy.
No, Robert. They’ll keep on doing what they have been doing very quietly. Which is to use those dollars to buy gold and other valuable commodities. You know, those things that have intrinsic value and cannot be created endlessly out of thin air.
By the way, Robert. You look quite handsome in your website picture. Gosh, you could even be a movie star!
Blush
Co-dependence is the same, whether your significant other, boss, or trading partner.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/chinas-trade-surplus-tumbles-in-dec-as-export-growth-collapses-yftt_535792.html
Have you been to a major city in China or India? Combined they have a middle class population twice as large as the entire US population. Yes there are huge gaps between rich and poor but the “haves” have a lot. They won’t be needing us as consumers for too many more years.
Prima facie evidence: if it were true that China/India had such a large middle class population (by ‘Murican definition), neither country would be shipping the goods here and to Europe. Fact remains: China/India are, essentially, slave labor economies exporting to high wage economies (so far) to benefit their 1%-ers.
There aren’t sufficient resources on the planet to make enough widgets for a global “US” economy, even with our highly skewed income distribution.
Bob:
Thanks for the predictions. I don’t even care how many of them come true, I love the out of the box thinking and the thought provoking way in which you put the pieces together. I hope 2011 is a great year for you and your family.
I’d like to second that emotion. Your predictions are truly thought provoking and a breath of fresh air from the echo chamber that the majority of tech press has become.
All the best for 2011!
This sounds very messy. If Apple acquires any ISP then they are in competition with all of the other ISPs. This would probably hurt their ability to distribute content as they would like to. If they spend a huge sum like that there is going to be some expectation of return on investment, or at least no losing the principal. If they shut down the TV service lots of people will be totally miffed.
Ideally they could get TW or someone to spin off their internet business. If so, how does that work? Does Apple buy the physical cables and then rent them back to the previous provider?
I like the idea of Apple doing this, except for all the complications.
This is exactly the problem. If Apple buys TWC, then how do Comcast and Verizon Fios react? They probably move to throttle Apple…
And while we’re on the subject, why not buy Comcast? I’m sure Apple could handle the required high yield leverage. Apple’s EV is $300B, and Comcast’s is $90B. Apple wouldn’t even have to bee all that leveraged to buy it.
because Comcast is a charlie-fox from the customer view, and they are buying NBC Universal, which provides antitrust issues (Jobs has the biggest chunk of Disney stock.) Apple doesn’t want to run fix-up against an evil empire, they like to swoop in and be angelic in one 40-minute staged presentation.
I don’t see Apple buying a national backbone because they go obsolete and are costly. I don’t see a backboner buying Apple because (a) they can’t finance it, and (b) they’ll kill the magic fairy. wired or wireless.
I see Apple either setting a block of SNAP headers aside for their own content and doing deals with backboners to prioritize that SNAP traffic… or just letting the customers find the best carriers with their own checkbooks, and maybe a couple of free App Store testers.
TWC does not own their Internet Business. They typically resell another provider’s – e.g. RoadRunner, Insight, etc – under their name. That is probably the biggest challenge to this whole thing.
Yes, TWC owns the copper to the house, owns the back-end network, owns all the cable TV support infrastructure. But they do not own the Internet connections – and use different services in different areas. Here in SC, they resell RoadRunner; while in Ohio they resell Insight. (Note: You cannot be a direct customer of RoadRunner or Insight any more; you have to go through TimeWarner and other resellers.)
So Apple would still have to buy an ISP or continue to sub-license like TWC does not.
On the other hand, buying Verizon or AT&T would get them all the infrastructure and the ISP stuff. However, that would be an even harder buy than TWC.
Comcast owns all its own stuff and doesn’t resell so far as I’m aware. However, they’re not likely on the table at all. Cox Communications is the same thing – only I know they’re still privately owned by the original Cox family who founded the company.
So ultimately, none of this is really an option for Apple – TWC, while the best candidate, doesn’t offer what Apple really needs; and no one else could really be bought out or provide the same subscriber base needed to affect the market.
Of course, this is all hinging around one thing – the perception of what Apple really needs. And guess what – it’s not an ISP, so TWC may still be able to do the job. What job is that?
Simply do the following:
1. Buy TWC
2. Spin-off TWC’s content functions as a separate company with special arrangements (more below).
3. Turn the remainder of TWC into an FCC regulated communications utility.
4. Continue reselling the ISP functionality.
5. Per #2, re-sell the content functions for 5 years; then open it up to competition.
What does this achieve?
1) It forces at least cable networks to be FCC regulated like the AT&T/Verizon land-line business is.
2) It (theoretically) lowers the prices of cable services.
3) It does what several here have recognized as necessary – getting the content provider out of the way to the competition that’s necessary to really start driving the next-generation of Internet services.
But the question is, would $30 billion do the job? My bet is that Apple won’t let go of that much cash. They’ll likely try to do the deal for a mere $4-5 billion instead. That’s chump change that they can easily write off. $30 billion would be betting the company.
Meant “Common Carrier” not “Common Utility”
Time Warner Cable OWNS RoadRunner. Always has.
I would look for another way than buying one of the big cable companies. What Apple really needs is the direct link from backbone to consumers – the “last mile”. But they only need one channel of that, just as Comcast uses only one channel for internet access modems. So buy ESPN or QVC that already has contracts for bandwidth delivery to the consumers nationwide, rent new modems tuned to that channel to customers, and insist through the courts that ‘Netwerk Neutrality” requires the cable companies to carry signals both ways on the APPLE channel. Spend 5 billion for the content provider, 20 billion for lobbyists and lawyers.
Apple does not buy big companies, the integration costs are high and the probability of success is low. I remember you predicting that Apple would buy Adobe – did not happen. In a lot of ways that would have make more sense than Apple buying Time Warner.
One problem is that it is difficult to combine a low margin business like cable TV with a high margin business like Apple has. The books keep saying that you should dump the low margin business.
Another problem is that the US cable companies are a terrible business that is soon going to get a lot worse as more and more people cut the cable. If you look at their books they are highly inflating their worth. If you subtract intangibles, Time Warner’s book value is -47 $ a share! Apple would be better spend their money doing an end around run the cable companies by investing in WI-MAX.
If they buy TWC, and turn it into a common utility/common carrier (my fault – forgot the term) – so that’s its regulated like AT&T/Verizon are per their land-line business – then those issues go away. They could turn around and sell it back off, collecting several billion back, having done what they set out to do. Integration of the two companies wouldn’t be required either.
And if they do what I suggested above (sell off the content networks first – namely to eliminate competition issues and conflict-of-interest issues) they could make more than otherwise.
Remember the desired out-come is to make ISPs Common Carriers. Not to own one in the end.
The only thing worse is the FAR LOWER-margin business of having $50 billion in an era of near-zero interest rates. While you’d think TWC margins would drag Apple down their operating income is far greater than Apple is making on its cash. So it would actually make Apple look BETTER.
This prediction makes sense esp, as your previous Blockbuster prediction seem to have gone unnoticed at apple so far.
P.S.
While you didn’t make any formal predictions at the start of 2010, you have as others have pointed out made a sizable number of predictions here since you parted ways with PBS… Maybe it’s time for a review of these? and thank you for the reappearance of the audio column which has meant a lot to me while I have been suffering from a partial loss of sight (makes coding a real pain in the A**) but the columns are great as always.
This won’t happen because Apple are a global company and they need these things to work on a global scale. Sky TV in the UK and all the others around the world won’t even notice if Apple spends more than half their cash mountain on a US cable company.
Bollocks. Apple cares less and less about it’s American base, and rightly so. Other parts of the world are ramping in wealth far faster than the US can or ever will again. (It’s only in the US that iPhone users get screwed by only having one carrier and all the fuss about Verizon carrying the iPhone – it could only be made by people who never used Verizon. The American cell carrier model is busted.) No way known Apple would sink all that blood and treasure into turning around an American dinosaur like TW (sorry about the mixed metaphors). The NC data center is for world wide distribution, on the Atlantic coast where the fattest pipes and most compliant local planning laws are. And the first of several worldwide?
Mr. Cringely: Your idea for Apple to buy Time Warner is about as good as your decision to not choose the stock options as an early Apple employee 😉
Why a cable company? Why not a collaboration between S. Jobs and Craig McCaw using the Clearwire bandwidth? Throw Direct TV into the mix, you could conceivably do a real nice next gen network.
Because McCaw just quit ClearWire? Because Malone would have to give up DirecTV? Because there isn’t enough WiMax bandwidth to do what you propose?
Hmm. Would love to see it. Though given TWC was onstage with Samsung discussing an arguably very-large-deal partnership… methinks it’s doubtful.
Worst idea ever. Look at Apple’s history. They don’t often buy infrastructure to supplement their goals like Google does. Apple buys patents or technology that will easily vertically integrate into their eco-system.
Apple is a vertically integrated marketing company, not a tech company.
Steve won’t get the revolution he wants by doing what Apple has always done.
Buying TW would be really stupid. What would Apple get? Content ownership? It does not need it. It is not in their business model. Streaming content, on the other hand, is. Infrastructure? Nah, outdated. Talent? Innovation? Vision? Nope. Overhead? Yes. Buying Netflix would have been a better fit, but it is too late for that now, too much dinero.
One thing the TW acquisition would guarantee is constant headaches while trying to integrate the TW business and infrastracture. Why would anyone at Apple want to run the TW business? For its revenue and low margins? Surely not. It would be a huge business blunder.
The NC data center will be used to support iTune and AppStore globally and probably new content distribution like books. Think iBooks. Also to support the embedded ads and mining of data collected globally. Video might be under consideration now, but only once the books and educational content distribution are proven and successful.
Apple would get control of the last mile to 30 million Americans.
Far and away the best prediction series ever. Bravo.
My prediction is Bob jumped the shark in 2010 and will steadily lose readers in 2011. The tour obviously is failing and will ultimately go the way of geek tv (or what ever it was called) — thrown away because the data is stale.
2009 was the year Bob made a lot of self-serving blogs about products he was endorsing. So PBS kicked him loose.
These predictions are just sad. Mostly things that have already happened. This last one is so improbable, I’d bet everything I own it won’t happen. Where is Bob to even defend his lousy predictions?
But he has managed to “get us talking among ourselves”.
Here I am.
I don’t normally say things like this but what you’ve said about me is not only inaccurate but incredibly unkind. The Tour is going fine, thanks. It’s a complex job making a TV series and a lot of moving parts have to work together. PBS didn’t fire me, I quit (in 2008, not 2009). My old columns there are still among the top 20 pages on pbs.org. I don’t recall having endorsed ANY products EVER. One area where you are right, though, is that my readership could decline and I could be out of business… or not. I’m betting on not.
Apple never buys what you predict they should buy.
They never bought Blockbuster
They never bought Adobe
They’re not going to buy Time Warner Cable.
Jobs and the board are not going to blow that much of Apple’s cash reserve on such a risky move in this economy.
OTOH, I believe Apple [perhaps not this year but in near future] are going to seriously step into the search engine ring – and blow away both Bing and Google. Google will survive, but Microsoft will throw in the towel and finally throw out Ballmer and merge with Facebook and hire Sheryl Sandberg as CEO
OK, I get your point about Steve wanting to be a media mogul and having to buy a cable company to achieve “cable quality” media delivery. The main point that you did not say in so many words is “IPTV is dead”; i.e. internet delivery is not as good as good old-fashioned OTA or cable. The net effect of your prediction is people will continue to pay for cable TV with Steve providing the content and hardware at both ends. I doubt if this will change the status quo, other than raise cable prices a bit based on the illusion of choice.
Ah, but that’s not what I wrote. I wrote that Apple would buy TWC and essentially “THROW THE CABLE COMPANY AWAY” They remake it as an ISP delivering content along with normal Internet service. I don’t see this as a failure of IP delivery at all, nor did I say that it was. You did.
But he’s right: the overhead of TCP/IP is the killer. I saw that a decade ago, but I’m not famous like Nagle. Read his piece.
This just in about Facebook/Goldman Sachs deal
http://rushkoff.com/2011/01/07/facebook-hype-will-fade/
I hate the whole telco industry mindset (bell shaped heads). I hope the entire industry just shrivels up and dies already. I was reading something recently about their justification for raising rates and eliminating unlimited data for LTE. Verizon and AT&T were crying about how much more data their infrastructure has to support now with the iPhone. Well, the IT industry deals with that dilemma constantly and always figures out a way to do it…and at a lower TCO than before.
So quit your whining, telcos and cable providers. To quote the great poet (Bob) Dylan: your old road is rapidly aging so get out of the new one if you can’t lend a hand cuz the times they are a-changing.
Bob
Not likely to happen. AT&T bought TCI about 10 years ago – and it bankrupted the company. Did not hear about the bankruptcy? That is because SBC bailed them out and bought them (after a 5 for 1 reverse stock split) for pennies on the dollar. If Apple buys anything, it will be a content company, which they can sell through their iTune store.
American cell carrier model is busted. No way known Apple would sink all that blood and treasure into turning around an American dinosaur like TW (sorry about the mixed metaphors).
Bob didn’t say anything about “turning around”. Maybe they could just use it as and solve the iptv bufferbloat problem.
What does this have to do with cell carriers? Again, criticize what I have actually written folks, not what you THINK I have written.
Bob didn’t say anything about “turning around”. Maybe they could just use it as and solve the iptv bufferbloat problem.
Why not spend the same $30 billion and resurrect the Teledesic concept and goose the throughput and simultaneous users? Apple would get worldwide coverage for their customers with no pesky middlemen in the way.
What about music? A lot of this discussion is driven by the cable and tv and video universe and that is of course important. Is the world of music important too? If it is, then I (as a musican) hope that Apple might consider buying MySpace and removing the main page fluff, improving the browsing capability, and integrating it with iTunes to help people find good music. I think MySpace is on the market for around $500M and most every band in the world is on there. Then later, should Apple be serving cable-like things, the new iTunes would be a huge improvement over the music channels now on cable tv.
I don’t think $30 billion would get the deal done, more in the $50 billion range. Big move/risk. Not sure I see Apple doing, as it doesn’t seem to fit their business model. I could be wrong, but this seems a bit far fetched.
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