Last time we looked at Apple’s conversion from a computer company to a phone company that also makes computers. We considered why Apple doesn’t give a damn about enterprise sales, which explains their embrace of third-party enterprise components like Microsoft’s Exchange Server. Now we’ll look closer still at what plans — if any — Apple even has for personal computers in its future.
With impeccable timing, Mrs. Cringely last week stood in line four hours at the Apple Store to get her new iPhone 4. The line was cheerful, she said, Apple provided umbrellas to protect customers from the sun, bottles of water, and even pizza. I think the bottles of water were key in this case because the only way I have ever seen Charlestonians be willing to stand in line is if the drinks are free.
Her iPhone 4 is significantly faster, the screen is pretty and the unit feels heftier in the hand but we can’t say much else yet. It’s too soon. We can say plenty, however, about how Apple managed to create a publicity frenzy by faking a product shortage that turned out not to really exist.
In retrospect Mrs. Cringely wishes she’d stayed home and bought the phone at her leisure a week later.
An integral part of iPhone 4 mania, of course, is the new operating system — iOS 4. Remember how important it once was for Apple to claim that the iPhone was running OS X? What happened to that? Is iOS 4 a version of OS X or not? And what does this apparent OS bifurcation mean for the non-portable product line? Is OS X going away?
OS X is here for now, I’m told, and iOS 4 is still OS X but specifically for the new A4 chip and others of its family that will shortly appear. We’ll see non-portable A4 products from Apple and they’ll run iOS 4, too, establishing it as a kind of consumer electronic operating system for the company. This bifurcation and differentiation is key to understanding both Apple’s strategy and the philosophy — yes, philosophy — that underlies it.
One of the first non-portable iOS 4 devices we’ll see, I predict, will look a heck of a lot like the new Mac Mini. Steve Jobs, who loves to play language games as long as he controls them, says there are no plans to update the AppleTV. Yet Engadget is all aflutter with talk of an iOS-based AppleTV (essentially an iPad without a screen). I think the new Mac Mini effectively is the next AppleTV. Notice they never did call it the MacTV. With the new Mac Mini already sharing a common form factor with the AppleTV, I can imagine an A4-based version appearing shortly at a $299 price running iOS 4. Expect to link an iPhone or iTouch to this A4-based AppleTV as a remote control device.
And get ready for a big leap of strategic thinking from Cupertino.
The number one game console in the USA is Nintendo’s Wii, primarily because it has a Bluetooth-connected motion-sensing remote control. Well iPhones and iPod Touches have Bluetooth, too — and WiFi, accelerometers, and now even gyroscopes. A Mini-turned-AppleTV controlled by the installed base of tens of millions of iPhones and iPod Touches is a game market waiting to be exploited. Yes, the “console” costs more (for now) but thanks to the App Store the games can cost less, making the total user expenditure the same or less. It’s the old Return-On-Investment (ROI) argument only applied to games.
Video games are the one huge market Apple has yet to touch and the last one where Microsoft can still pretend to contend for technology leadership. A $299 AppleTV that has a serious content strategy, HD-Wii performance, and good games priced from $2.99-$6.99 would kick ass at Christmas. Yes, it is too expensive and the games are too puny for real gamers, but not too expensive or too puny to sell the 2-4 million units Apple likes when entering any new market.
That’s $1 billion in easy Christmas revenue for Apple from what’s essentially a marketing head feint.
Phones, games, TV’s — Apple’s future clearly lies with consumer electronics, not with personal computers as we have long thought of them. With Windows 8 reportedly aiming directly for OS X, Apple needs to be where Windows is not — which is in the home in consumer devices too cheap for an effective OEM strategy.
Apple needs to distinguish itself yet again in a world moving very quickly toward computer ubiquity.
How ordinary.
And so the PC business is no longer of any real interest for Steve Jobs because he sees no future in it. Steve isn’t one for sentimentality, especially when there are competitors to be crushed.
If Apple can no longer show a discernible difference in user experience between OS X and Windows 8, then much of the Apple magic will be gone. So he has to move ahead before he is left behind. There is room for neither sentimentality nor inertia.
The digital kids of today are growing tired of things the way they were. So Apple is using the iPhone and iPad to move information, content creation, and entertainment out of the old world and into a new one. The way Steve prevents the logo on the box syndrome is to leave the box behind. Its both brilliant and inevitable.
Competitors that still think strictly in terms of individual features and form factors won’t grasp the significance of what’s going-on here. Steve is out to make them obsolete. Apple has mothballed the whole notion of vying for computer market share and is instead moving as fast as it can to redefine the whole computing model for consumers using networked mobile devices.
Remember when Ballmer talked through his hat a few years ago about how Microsoft was headed to a model of Windows based primarily on ad revenue? There’s no way in Hell that business model can be sustained for Windows or the PC (or for Macs, either). But make the platform cost $199 and be replaced every 24 months, build-in mobile subscription revenue, MobileMe subscription revenue, content revenue, app revenue and ad revenue, with none of those involving much effort or expense on Apple’s part at all and the future becomes clear.
And Apple plans to own it.
Apple are masters at innovation (Steve said he would innovate his way out of the GFC).
One model for growth is the “Three horizons of growth” developed by some ex-McKinsey people.
H1- current business which has no real growth due to mature markets etc. Only gains here are from market share
H2 – businesses which can represent 25% of your revenue in 18 months (iPods, iPhones and iPads were all H2 initiatives which are now H1)
H3 – the “white space”, where the industry will be 3 – 5 years. Apple are fantastic at visioning what this will be.
To get H2 and H3 products into reality, sometimes you need a “growth staircase”, where you learn to walk before you can run, and might need a building block from elsewhere (think the original Portal Player, licensed in for the original iPod, or purchase of Final Cut from Macromedia, or even Astarte for iDVD etc) [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mergers_and_acquisitions_by_Apple]
So I don’t think the existing Mac OS X business, and sales of Mac Pros, iMacs etc is going away, or will wither on the vine. However as a mature business, I am not expecting fireworks.
The only disagreement I have with Hamish is:
“H3 – the “white space”, where the industry will be 3 – 5 years. Apple are fantastic at visioning what this will be.”
that Apple don’t really envision where the market will be, they envision what the market might be and then set about creating it.
Steve Jobs has incredible insight into the minds of everyday consumers, their wants and needs, and how to provide products to satisfy those needs.
Just look at the iPod which managed to take mp3 players from an essentially niche but global market to the mass market.
In the same way the iPhone has inspired millions of people to do more with the phone that was in their pocket and has as a result sold in the millions.
Though neither of these were new products they re-imagined our interactions with them, simplified it and captured the hearts of the everyday consumer.
It is truly amazing how many consultants can make money by re-packaging common sense – growth horizons and growth alchemy – kind of like the amazing new diet that encourages nutrition and exercise.
I agree somewhat with Bob’s view of Apple’s philosophy, iPhilosophy. However I don’t see it marginalizing OSX to the extent he does.
There are still going to be (at least) three levels to the IT/Electronics market:
1. Consumers (from WalMart shoppers to Apple Store shoppers and some gamers)
2. Prosumers (hobbyists, Fry’s shoppers, education, other gamers, and many who read these types of blogs/forums)
3. Professionals (creatives, game developers, scientists, entrepreneurs and big business)
Each has its own s/w and h/w needs and Apple and Dell and IBM and others have been tending to the needs of each with all sorts of form factors and accessories.
For prosumers (the original folks that kept Apple alive because they cared, could afford abit more and appreciated the Mac difference) has never been the largest of these markets, but it is the one with the buzz and the blogs and gave Apple its 5% market core. Many work in creative and entertainment capacities, but generally don’t buy for businesses of 200+ employees. These also represent the only people who were “consumers” for the first decade of pc’s and as such bridge the other two markets even as they have gradually lost influence in the last few decades. These are those of us who watched Triumph of the Nerds and have the sentimentality that Steve lacks.
For the professionals, Apple may not intend to sell servers, etc. to CitiCorp, but the installed base of high end hardware and software, needs to be maintained and probably won’t be wooed by Windows 8 no matter how mac-like it looks. MS is just going to probably hold on to its own installed base in creatives/science and try to keep Google out of big business systems, but making IBM, Hp and others seem just cool enough and just secure enough.
Now for the consumer – the focus of Apple’s current efforts as Bob’s video clip of Steve suggests. These people did not watch or care about the Triumph of the Nerds, nor did they care about operating systems – yet, because they needed a computer to use email and to browse the web, they were forced to buy computers and to deal with their finicky, fickle and quickly obsolete nature …. and they key point here is …. they have learned to dislike them. But they had no choice. The consumer has had a couple of decades now of being “forced” to buy and use prosumer/professional devices to do consumer functions.
The MS/OEM’s have played this market for all they can, making the internet experience and games require that every 2-4 year upgrade cycle of consumer experiences using prosumer devices. Some companies have tried to separate the two – using gaming consoles and pda devices, and with some success. But each is kept at too much of a niche … at least until my mom can send email with a Wii.
What I think Apple has uniquely set out to do, is redefine the consumer market in a post-os, post-prosumer age. iOS and iDevices are a platform, but are seemingly platform agnostic as much as consumers will understand. There is no file system, just icons, no utilities, just settings; no “applications,” just “apps” and those just do things, they don’t run things. The word “applications” will slowly fade in the consumer’s mind. Steve understands that consumers just need consumer devices.
Steve isn’t killing or even weakening the Mac world at all. Macs will remain in the prosumer and professional markets. He is just in the heady throes of creating a new world/ecosystem full of people to whom he can build devices without the overhead of the Mac/pc wars. This new world has its own needs and its own philosophies and I believe it is dramatically disentangling itself from the other two markets. Mobile music and phones just happened to be the killer functions that began the process. Apple is hoping that iPads bring web browsing and email and media (video/magazines/books/games) consumption to that same level.
I believe this apparent shift in Apple philosophy is really just a realignment of resources to the post-OS era of the consumer electronics market. The professionals, prosumers and even consumers who feel the need, will still buy Macs and pc’s and there are battles aplenty in the future, but they will largely be outside the sphere of the consumer for the first time in history.
Macgregor – You are spot on.
This is the most insightful post I have ever read about the marketplace and Apple’s plans.
Most people think we have entered the post PC era, however as you point out this is really the pre consumer era. The dawn of an entirely new world where consumers are freed from the bondage of general computing and thrust into a world of limitless freedom. Surf, watch video, play games and stay connected 24 – 7 completely unencumbered.
The new CE market is born and where it leads is uncertain but the PC will not be the primary device of the future for most people.
Again KUDOS on a most enlightening post!!!
“Is Mac OS X going away?”
Yes, it will be replaced with a desktop version of the iPad with all of the glorious drm and restrictions.
That’s funny. What would one use to develop for the iPhone/Pad/Pod then? This all requires OS X. And yes, iOS IS OSX, but it makes no sense to replace OS X with it as iOS is a subset.
Most likely, iOS apps will run in dashboard. That would be awesome, BTW.
If anyone remembers the old Performa line of Macs, they came with a simplified dashboard, very similar to the iPhone’s layout of tiles for Apps and no file manipulation outside of apps. This was great for school systems and you just needed a key combo or password to get at regular Mac OS underneath.
I can definitely see Apple heading in this direction.
Apple will still be making computers, that are profitable and very powerful which can be loaded with different operating systems, so that they will appeal to both Mac and window users. I do not think you can do without a full fledged machine, especially when you are serious about managing your digital life. The desktop business will be here to stay for a while longer, but mobility is going to be the field Apple will shake up in a big way, hence the evolution of OsX, bifurcating into two distinct lines, OsX for the desktop and iO4 for the mobile computing and for the cloud. Apple has yet to say something about that huge server farm it is building in North Carolina. Time will tell in which direction Jobs is leading Apple to, even Microsoft is waiting with baited breath and with its copy machine at the ready.
I reckon you’re pretty much spot on there Bob.
The iPod, iPhone and iPad have all shown that Apple can come into pretty much any market and own it very quickly. If they aren’t already Microsoft should be very worried, not about Windows beating the Mac but how to get a toehold in what comes next before they become the next generations Mac.
It worried me when Steve said at the WWDC that Apple supports two platforms, HTML5 and AppStore. No mention of OS X.
I think what Steve meant was Apple would rely on cloud. Still whatever services provided in the cloud, consumers still need a hub at homes. I think a mac would serve well as a hub.
“But make the platform cost $199 and be replaced every 24 months,”
with a little carrier competition this upfront cost to the consumer evaporates, and monthly subscription falls substantially too.
Note the new description Apple gave itself on yesterday’s press release.
It was
“Apple ignited the personal computer revolution with the Apple II, then reinvented the personal computer with the Macintosh. Apple continues to lead the industry with its award-winning computers, OS X operating system, and iLife, iWork and professional applications. Apple leads the digital music revolution with its iPods and iTunes online store, has reinvented the mobile phone with its revolutionary iPhone and App Store, and has recently introduced its magical iPad which is defining the future of mobile media and computing devices.”
we now have
“Apple designs Macs, the best personal computers in the world, along with OSX, iLife, iWork, and professional software. Apple leads the digital music revolution with its iPods and iTunes online store. Apple reinvented the mobile phone with its revolutionary iPhone and App Store, and has recently introduced its magical iPad which is defining the future of mobile media and computing devices.”
why introduce a new Mac Mini running OS X Snow Leopard, or i5, i7 MBPs, if iOS is the path to enlightenment?
Replaced every 24 months? I hope Apple has a plan to deal with the waste as well.
Missed that, huh? Apple has moved to recyclable products in a big way. They have eliminated almost all harmful additives, and make the vast majority of the products from recyclable materials such as aluminum and glass. Also, they will pay you $50 for your old iPod on trade in for a new one and will recycle or repurpose that old device.
Sorry, Brian. Apple doesn’t pay $50 for a used iPod. They offer a 10% discount on the purchase of a new iPod for the return/recycle of an old iPod.
Sorry, I totally disagree. Steve Jobs admitted years ago that Microsoft won the PC war. But merely because one war is over doesn’t mean another can’t begin. There is no way Apple can do a frontal assault on the illegal MS monopoly. So by making the Mac compatible with the monopoly, it allows people to see the value of the Mac. Why should they even look? Because they’ve seen how beautiful the iPod, the iPad, and the iPhones are. So if Macs play well with others, why not give it a try.
Assuming that Apple is abandoning the Mac because of one convention being oriented toward the iPhone is like saying a mother is abandoning one child because she is focusing on a second child for that second child’s birthday.
Apple makes billions from the Mac. They are not going to abandon it or change it into something foolish.
The next mac OS X 10.7 would be a hub where all the devices talked to each other. Lookup all the patents apple registered in the past 2 years. It’s gonna be incredible.
I believe that Steve Jobs said they lost the PC war because HE did not Realize that they were in one. To me that was pretty telling. Apple since the return on Jobs does not compete in the COMMODITY PC market and the race to the bottom. Apple does not let their competition dictate direction.
Jake Gittes: I just want to know what you’re worth. Over ten million?
Noah Cross: Oh my, yes.
Jake Gittes: Why are you doing it? How much better can you eat? What
can you buy that you can’t already afford?
Noah Cross: The future, Mr. Gitts, the future.
Wow. The “Cringely” writer isn’t even trying to make sense anymore. What a sad decline of a formerly-entertaining brand.
True. As far as I can tell he is also wrong!
Don’t you think the living room could also be a screenless iphone that streams media from itunes and the web and outputs to HDMI. If you want to play real computationally intensive games, buy a mac or play onlive. The future is dumb hardware. It could clip or stick onto any TV unobtrusively, maybe even get power from a USB on the TV??? But it would make the itunes monopoly ubiquitous and suck the oxygen out of the market. Could also work in the automobile, which is not discussed at all.
Yes there will be people who want a mac mini for the living room (and I am one of them!) but 700 bucks? Buy a PS3 and get a Blu-Ray player instead for less than half.
The future is the cloud. Apple inkled that when they opened up their NC data center, and doubled down today with the hint that every wifi connected device will sync on the fly. Eventually, it will be LTE connected device as well.
Guys… the Home(work desktop) PC is going to become a local utility device, like a water heater, connected upstream to a bigger resource server (Internet/cloud/waterMain). Most people will use a local computer for what? I mean _MOST_ people (the 99.999% of the people on the planet who can’t spell HDMI if you spotted them the HD),
The money isn’t in the Pipes, the money isn’t in the water heaters… the money is in the faucets and the portable water containers ($2.00 for a liter of water in a blastic bottle… but you can take it with you [think ipod, ipad]. Apple is building water tanks for the home in AppleTV, Mac Mini, TimeCapsule, etc. These will store the ‘water,’ ‘filter it,’ ‘refresh it’,and re-pressurize it. But it’s all for convenience. The glory of apple will be that no matter what device you buy, it will ‘just work… insanely great.’ So you’ll buy one device, then 2, then 3.
Apple’s only growth model is for you to buy and ipod touch shuffle, an iPhone 5, and an iPad… and they all just work.
Much like I’ve given up on the fact that I won’t flip switches on an HP3000 to boot it, I’ve given up on the fact that I need to write Objective C code. (and I don’t own a brazing torch, solder, and a copper pipe bending workbench anymore either). Now I want quick connectivity, and just works reliability.
And once you have an iphone and an ipad… then… the iMac (I don’t see a mac Pro as a business device… unless it moves into a ‘brick/mini’ format that is stackable, like a work group blade server) may be the most ‘logical device to have at your work location (where you do need more local computing power). Mac Mini’s in the comm closet, and Grand Central then linking it all together. You program on an iPad, but your compile in the cloud (or a more local location if you have the need).
It is pretty simple economics… Soon Apple will need to move beyond portable personal devices, and move even lower in the food chain… how much lower, I don’t know… but Apple is very much about defining the interface – of the unified, ‘always on connected society.
Yeah Geoff,
You don’t need to gap your spark plugs to be able to drive your car and you shouldn’t have to purge corrupt preference files, scan registry integrity/missing/shared DLLs, just so you can type a damned blog.
I can’t believe in 2010 I’m still chasing font problems and trashing preferences JUST TO GET ADOBE CS4 TO QUIT CRASHING! ARE YOU GETTING IT? The same crap from OS 9/Windows 98 is still here.
Apple is more dependent on their own computer hardware and systems than ever. Apple learned extraordinarily painful lessons in the 90’s about dependence on others with Microsoft, Adobe, Quark, Intuit (is that joker still on the board?), etc.
You can be assured that Apple’s cloud, which is integral to this whole new direction, does not run on Windows or Dells or Linux.
Much of these predictions seem to be very much on-target. Apple has done an impressive job leveraging it’s experience in the computer/software industry in taking over a massive chunk of the consumer electronics space. And in many ways they have done the best job merging the two. To me: what we are witnessing is the closest thing to a realization of the “Digital Convergence” mania of the ’90s. What’s going to make this *really* interesting is the increasing competition coming from Google. Just reading of a breaking rumor that Apple is planning a *B*illion dollar acquisition in the TV space (https://www.appleinsider.com/articles/10/06/29/apple_eyeing_billion_dollar_acquisitions_push_into_tv_market_rumor.html), and Google has announced a new product “Google TV”: it’s clear that Apple and Google are soon to be pitted against one-another on multiple fronts (if you include iWork vs. Google Documents – some would argue they already have).
Apple’s advantage ifsthe flexibility of the OS to support PowerPC, Intel, Alpha, and others. The foundational OS is generally indifferent to the processor and so Apple will adapt the OS to the processor, but keep the core. This is the problem that MS has – Windows OSes are fundamentally different for different processors and environments. MS is pouring a lot of funds into convergence OS. It will probably not be Windows 8 Phone and Windows 8, maybe Windows 9. This is hard and takes a lot of effort.
Regarding Windows 8 being a mimic of OSX, therefore, differentiation is gone. I think I heard this story since ’95. 2000, XP, Vista, and Windows 7! A strategy that says we want to be like Apple OS is not the same as being like an Apple OS. Aside from its really hard [pretty graphics is not enough], MS is stuck with a hardware community that is going to be a ball and chain for the kind of integration [and loss of HW differentiation] and the Enterprise would be totally confused and resistant to this level of change. I can see the Enterprise IT rags/blogs with interoperability warnings with existing commercial and Enterprise developed apps, user training, and of course the ubiquitous security thingy coming out. This is not a formula for revolutionary change.
Apple is not going for the low margin Enterprise hardware or the customers only interested in initial low price [Walmart anyone], but the premium customers home and SOHO who see value in hardware SW integration and it just works.
Which customer is MS and their HW “partners?” They aspire for premium, but they are trapped in commodity space and I see no escape for them, last summer’s, I’m a PC ads and we are cheaper silliness aside.
Bob,
I think you’ve nailed it nicely in both articles. Initially it may seem insanity to walk away from all of those high end production houses and and professional content creators. Yet once we take a good, hard look at the death spiral that most “old media” companies seem determined to take on, you begin to see the genius.
While the old business models are literally having fits at the idea that they are no longer viable, Apple has embraced a future were content creation can occur on Macs and be consumed — well, everywhere. They’re even taking it a step further, making it possible for content creation on the fly with the iPhone 4. Millions of HD cameras with built in editing — heck, the front facing camera alone makes the idea of creating a video pod-cast (a word that Apple helped create!) from virtually anywhere, anytime not only practical, but inevitable.
It’s all about where the expanding market is. I’ve known free lance cameramen who used to drop the big bucks on Final Cut Pro. But if you were able to get the best features of FCP on the iPad for 10 bucks and use it to edit the footage on your iPhone, Apple gets the money for the ‘pad, the ‘phone, AND the software — and that market is growing insanely fast, as opposed to the poor first stringers who now have to compete with witnesses who are already at the scene not only getting the freshest footage, but who can publish it themselves on YouTube before the “pro” can even digest what he just heard on the police/fire scanner.
Now there are a few (glances toward Daniel A. Shockley and Ben) who apparently aren’t paying close enough attention to what you’re actually saying regarding AppleTV (which, thank the gods that watch over such things, was NOT named the “MacTV” — I had the misfortune of working on a product by that name during my very first stint at the mothership. It was a terrible product, I’m sorry to say… but I digress!).
No one’s suggesting that, at 700 bucks, that the current ATV offering would displace the Wii or PS3. However, with the new A3 chip and some key design changes, a iOS driven set top box could be offered for under 250 bucks that could slide into the Wii’s position, especially if Apple can do away with the controller’s entirely. I was seeing video driven video games in the late 90’s — if anyone could make that technology work it would be Apple. iPhone owners might get some bonus functionality, but a single box with a built in video camera that could allow any number of players without wires or devices play games in high definition? Oh, and it’s a media center, internet device, and could even control your house? 😛
Bonus: Internet and television controlled by motion detection. Imagine being able to point to something or someone on screen and asking who or what it is, and getting an answer. Clicking links by literally pointing at the link on the TV and tapping in air. Think a “Minority Report” interface without the data gloves.
I have no clue how it will all turn out — I can’t wait to see. 😉
So…John…how would that work with respect to the home automation?
I’ve followed the HTPC trends for a while, and I find your ideas very intriguing.
Do you think Apple would do a buyout of a home automation company, or just ally with current companies? Which companies would make sense do you think?
Dave
I hear iPhones are playing catchup. Sprint EVO, Droid X. At least that’s what Apple Fanboi, Leo Laporte, is saying now. (Last Sunday’s Tech Guy podcast.)
The new Android devices are arguably better based on specifications (megapixels, screen size, 4G, MiFi-like hotspot capability, etc) but are not as “functional”. How can that be? The iPhone camera has better light sensitivity due to back illumination. The video allows touch to focus adjustment and while several phones have had front facing cameras, FaceTime is zero-config. 4G is way too spotty. MiFi hotspots cost an extra $20 a month. The multiple Android device makers need to compete WITH EACH OTHER on specs as the software is similar. Apple is competing on usability. It’s good to have choice but buying a phone based on it’s guts is like buying a car based on it’s horse-power. A waste of time if you can’t use it!
The form factor evolution is also interesting. Apple is sticking to it’s 3 year old 3.5″ screen (albeit it at 4X resolution compared to the previous iPhones) whereas HTC, Motorola and others are going for ever increasing sizes. Will be interesting to see what consumers prefer (of course, the iPad defines a different category).
Will also be interesting to see whether Apple sticks to it’s annual version updates when Android devices seemingly are released every six minutes.
Its about the software!
Its fine that Apple produces hardware and such. But when it comes down to it, using the Wii like motion sensors, the built-in webcam, the gesture interface, the living room experience, the games. Who will write it?
While Apple has grown by leaps and bounds, these refined items that Bob speaks of are too far a stretch for old Apple. And I don’t see them partnering with third parties to make it happen. Quite the contrary. Recent announcements have penalized third party tools from Adobe and Tom Higgin’s Unity3D. They barely have enough internal resources to manage OSX and iOS. I predict the stress will tripple and unless a hiring frenzy is in the works (which I’m sure it is), product lines will be narrowed or compromised. No AppleTV. No Apple games ‘less they open up software development a bit more for others to write Apple games (the only saving grace to App store). And yet we see the App store becoming more and more difficult to write for. No thanks to Apple.
Its about the software. Who will write it?
Microsoft has always marketed their APIs like DirectX to game developers first and foremost. Games = Content. On the gaming front, Steam for Mac is an overdue welcome, and the closest we’re getting for iTunes like delivery of games on OSX. But the PC version is way better. Steam for Mac, although not nearly robust as the PC version is still infinitely better then iTunes which carries a big fat ZERO for games on OSX right now. Content isn’t just music and video anymore.
Its about the software. Who will write it?
And the fight for the livingroom is already lost. While I wish it weren’t true, Windows MCE has evolved far beyond AppleTV’s reach or the crippled and closeted architecture of Frontrow. MCE’s support with third party plugins is clearly more open. Tools like MCEBuddy make it play nice with iPods and iPads, while AppleTV doesn’t even support a live tuner, much less the partnering ventures with ESPN, NBC, or CBS.
MCE’s integration with the Xbox just amplifies the obvious. PS3 wishes it had such a solution, but PS3’s UI is still suffering from an identity crisis. Extended blueray APIs is the only thing keeping PS3 alive (and maybe a few game titles -as in no more then the fingers on your hand). And yet, I’m fine with the menu system of the original DVD discs of yesterday.
Now comes Project Natal, aka Kinect and we’re seeing less room for Apple in the living room. While the rich will pay for a re-branded Macbook known as SavantAV.com, its just dogfood and mouthwash for the eight digit salary makers out there. -And it doesn’t connect to netflix like an Xbox or MCE. However, its the kids and younger generation that are using xbox’s and iPods and will graduate into a digital world run less and less by Apple (if they keep their proprietary Sun-like attitude).
Such a shame. Here’s hoping that Apple will open up then try to do it all with perfection with even less resources then Microsoft. Where Microsoft delivers ‘good enough’ and Apple delivers ‘great’ or NOT AT ALL, user’s will settle for ‘good enough’ because its the only choice.
Bob you’re transforming yourself from tech writer/journalist to psychic.
Did you buy your crystal ball somewhere on the internet or in pawn shop?
Are you opening any Cringely Psychic Reading Shop in Charleston?
Open one and start selling franchises – you might become another Wal-mart.
Hey you can promote yr new business on yr upcoming show.
What I liked about this “article” was what happened when I tried to read it.
Bob, whomever is hosting your verbiage has bought into displaying ads that (1) completely cover your article and (2) time out after **60 seconds** and (3) have an inoperable ‘X’ button on the frame.
I read this and mostly nodded yeah, that is right, the living room server with games and movies is the next obvious product direction. At the same time, Apple is not going to abandon their Mac business. From their latest 10-Q, it is still more than a third of their business when you include peripherals and software and growing fast (27% YoY for Mac hardware).
The problem with Apple is their insularity. They have done well with iTunes because they were first. However their bookstore is going nowhere because the content is not available. Same thing with video and AppleTV. They need to partner, with a bookseller for books and with say Netflix for video content, but that is not the Apple way, so it looks like these efforts could wither on the vine.
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Even if Apple is stupid enough to take another stab at a game console (remember Pippin?), they certainly won’t spin it as such, but rather as a home media hub that’s capable of running software and the iOS apps, *including* the games.
Forgot to mention the attendant risk in entering a market that’s based on the razor-blade model/printer ink model, when Apple has traditionally made much of its money on hardware.
Even with the enormous success of the iTunes Store, it contributes little to their bottom line.
If Apple offers a living room solution it will make a Microsoft solution seem crude by comparison. Some will prefer MS, but there are folks who like column shift manual cars, no accounting for taste.
Not expecting Apple desktops to go away soon, though they will be a smaller part of Apple’s revenue.
You do realize that AppleTV has been out for some time? What it does it does great, but the problem is it doesn’t do jack. In order news, hulu premium is out, and like Netflix it’s on xbox and not AppleTV.
I believed Apple could, but the reality is Apple can’t. Not enough resources to be that good and a total dictator with your API. Hence, it will never happen. Xbox dominates the livingroom of the new generation. Old people can’t see that or care.
I am with you but I have iOS4 on my 8gb ipod touch. It works fine but it did wipe out all the music I had ripped using itunes, from CDs I bought. What Jobs really hates is people who have the gall to enjoy music which they’ve already purchased. I upgraded from cassettes to CDs… And, now, apparently, in the span of the last 4 years we all have to junk our old TVs to flat screens to 3D. Of course, my laptop is already obsolete (because it’s a January 2009 model.)
What I am really curious about is the American consumer who must be as or more fatigued than I am.
I recently applied for a job and was “tested” on Windows XP. My score was 100%. I have been using Windows 7 on this machine since October 2009. I asked the interviewers what they used, and they both put their heads down in shame, “Vista.”
My interviewer who has an MBA and a law degree, required that I be tested on XP? For an office that uses Vista. Meanwhile, my laptop is more modern than anything we use in the office?
And the ipod touch? It just works…
(but it would be nice to have the retina display.)
Almost right, Bobster. Neither of Apple’s machines is its own: the computers are driven by Intel and the iStuff by ARM. It is well known that ARM (and some of its clients) are intent on building Real Computers with their stingy chips: http://blog.linleygroup.com/2010/06/arm-targets-xeon.html
It’s long been believed that unix/linux can easily be ported to any cpu; we’ll see whether Apple and its contractors can actually do that.
As to Apple being a hardware company, I’ve never been convinced of that, since the real guts of their machines have always been bought-in. I guess they have some IP in touchscreens, but what else, pray tell?
Apple’s MobileMe strategy is off track. For years you’ve had free alternatives to most of what MobileMe does. Free webmail from Google with 7.5 GB of storage, free contact database and calendar apps from the same, free image hosting from Flickr, free multi-platform IM from Meebo, free websites from WordPress, and free PC synchronization from DropBox. And I was reading just today that Microsoft will offer users of Windows Live SkyDrive 25 GB of storage in the cloud for free.
There’s really only one reason to pay for MobileMe: Find My iPhone. It’s the only part of their package that could never be duplicated by a third party, for free or otherwise.
Don’t get me wrong; it’s great that Apple offers all of those services, and bundles them together so that they are easy to use. But $99/year is way overpriced for what everyone else is giving away for free. Just on principle, I would never pay that to Apple. I would argue that MobileMe should be free to users of Apple hardware (including the Find My iPhone feature, which is totally automated and doesn’t require a customer service rep; Apple’s cost on this is marginal), and only charge users who want to purchase increased amounts of storage, or who want to integrate their own domain name with Apple’s services.
MobileMe should be at the center of Apple’s platform strategy. Rather than cannibalizing Mac sales, the iPad (and iPhone) have been helping to grow Mac sales. MobileMe should be the glue that binds it all together for EVERYBODY, not just those suckers willing to pony up $99.
I think a lot of people are expecting a new Apple TV this year, but personally I reckon it’ll be Christmass 2011. Apple just have too much on their plates already. They have just completed iOS4, need to integrate it into the iPad, have a new add platform to complete and roll out, and more. Also iPhone4 has just been released and they won’t want to distract attention from it this year.
iPhone4 is the ultimate iPhone. The technology is pretty much maxed out. They can up the camera resolution a few MP next year but that’s about all. With the GS they hald back a bit so they could save a front-facing camera, 5MP main camera and HD video for the new device, but with iPhone4 they threw in the kitchen sink.
This means that for next year the iPhone5 will be a much lower key release, therefore they will need new products to wow the market with. Sure they held back with the iPad this year so next year’s model can have a retina display and front-facing camera (no back camera), but I think they need more than that. As soon as iOS4 is perfected this autumn, I predict it’s all steam ahead on the software development project for AppleTV Next Generation. Apple are maestros at planning, co-ordinating and redeploying their development resources. Expect to see a fresh display of their nimbleness in this area over the next 12 months.
For confirmation of this, play close attention to the new version of the iTouch this autumn. If iPhones and iTouches will be the controllers for AppleTV NG then any features to support this in the new iTouch will provide clues. A Gyroscope is a given, IMHO. They will also want iTouches to be as cheap as possible to make the controller strategy viable, so pricing will also be an important balance point. The new iTouch will have just enough features to support the controller strategy, and nothing more, at least in the most basic model.
Thinking about it, they may well split the iTouch into two SKUs this autumn. A more feature rich device (camera) would enable them to maintain the current price point, but the controller strategy demands a cheaper device. These two opposing forces may lead to a split.
Or maybe this is all just noise in my head. Fun to think about it though.
“iPhone4 is the ultimate iPhone. The technology is pretty much maxed out. They can up the camera resolution a few MP next year but that’s about all. With the GS they hald back a bit so they could save a front-facing camera, 5MP main camera and HD video for the new device, but with iPhone4 they threw in the kitchen sink. ”
Pentultimate
Never underestimate an order of magnitude in bandwidth and storage.
The next iPhone will be 10X faster in bandwidth (LTE), double the battery life, and have 2X local storage for the same price. Moore’s law is not bound in one dimension (cpu) alone. Also, with facetime, you’re gonna start getting a Metcalf’s law bump (the value of a network is proportional to the square of number of members). With all that, what sort of capabilities can you put into a phone [HUD display?, eCash, etc…]
The apple ecosystem (itunes/appstore, the personal media device, personal communications device, personal surfing device, personal computing device, home/family media device, home/family storage device, internet based storage and communications hub) is pretty well established. Now as the products more tightly integrate, and Moore’s law allows them to drop in price (appleTV coming down to $199), the fact that you buy a $79 nano may drive you to 000’s of dollars of purchase eventually, because it all just works.
I too question the ‘Apple home automation front’ I’m just starting my (first and last) home automation project, refitting a 100yo house. a mac Mini is my platform of choice (too expensive, I know, but hey)… When will Apple start selling $50 light bulbs and remote webcams that can be controlled from your iOS device? Will every room have a Apple wireless hub (an Airport Express sized device) running iOS, that provides the wireless, local cache, interface controls for the room, speakers, and a HDBaseT link to your internet enabled TV/Stereo/HT/Toaster oven?
Once everyone has an iPad, then the next thing is make sure every room has an ‘iHub’ to ensure that FaceTime will work everywhere.
iHubs (say $99 apiece and 3 per home) connect to the iHome stackable server ($199), which connects to me.com, which Apple collects $99 a year ($199 for a ‘household’ account). Couple it with 3iPhones (99), 1 or 2 iPods(59), and a couple iPads($399), each with a 3-5 year life*… and your talking a household spending 4-500/year on apple’s HW and base connectivity products… before AppleCare and content.
(* I’m retiring a 7year old TiPowerbook this year [shattered hinge after 3 years of consulting and 4 years of my son’s college], and the average Apple product lifespan is about 5 years in my house, from Gen2 IPods, to an iPhone 4 purchased last week).
So, you’ll see the iPhone move up the chain, the Touch move parallel, the Nano picking up more Touch features (again, the touch having iPhone 4 like capabilities, and the Nano more iPhone 3GS). The iPad gets a front facing camera, facetime, and another click in resolution (it’s just a multiplier now), and eventually LTE capabilities.
I see this product line as pretty solid for the next 3-5 years… and that’s a lifetime in a product nowadays.
It’s these kinds of dumb posts devoid of any actual content that make me wonder why I even check this blog anymore.
I am getting a feeling in my bones that Apple is becoming a type of AOL with way more power to dictate reality/content. AOL never had the ability to ‘own the hardware’ but Apple controls both the hardware and the zeitgeist.
We need competition like never before. Please, Google, Microsoft, someone…anyone make something sexy. I so wanted the Courier as did all of my developer/designer/writer/artist friends.
sigh.
I can’t believe anyone ever took Courier seriously. Two screens works on the DS because it’s really just a cheap alternative to one larger screen, but in Courier the only reason for two screens was as a technological compromise so you could have the advantages of a colour and a b/w e-reader display. The two displays would have had different roles, so relay it would have been more like two separate devices welded together but with some shared resources.
Ugly, awkward compromises like that never work out. iPad’s screen isn’t perfect by any means, but they’ve got just close enough to the ideal of video support, colour, readability and battery life to make it viable. That’s another Apple strength – waiting for just the right technology to come along before creating a product. Not mindlessly leaping to production as soon as something half-way worthwhile becomes barely possible, if you’re prepared to compromise on some of the core features.
I am interested in the “faking a product shortage that turned out not to really exist” part. Can you fill in the blanks, Bob? Call me skeptical. I own a Honda S2000 that I bought for sticker on New Years eve 2002 and am therefore familiar with the artificial shortage strategy. I have seen no evidence that the iPhone 4 shortage is fake. Convince me.
Apple is coming out with more on the iPhone 4 issues, it will be interesting to see what will results when the dust settles.
The two glaring, undeveloped markets I’d HOPE Apple gets into are:
1) TV interface. Why do I have 4 remotes in my living room? Have you ever seen a cable/satellite UI that didn’t suck? Why is it that 70% of the big-screen TVs on earth aren’t smart enough to letterbox what should be letterboxed and full-screen what should be full-screened? Where, oh where, is the ultimate UI company (Apple) when I need them?
2) There are 200,000,000 cars in America. Why do I have to carry my iPod and plug it into my car? Why can’t my car stereo just sync to my iTunes wirelessly, without any cords at all? Maybe it could do it via my iPhone? In a perfect world, my computer, my iPod, my car, and my TV are all synced all the time.
Same answer to both questions: DRM. We are all pirates and sharing or anything that looks like sharing is bad. Steve Jobs hates DRM so he won’t even make the attempts that Microsoft has made. Thanks to Microsoft we can watch Blu-Ray movies and sometimes cable TV on our PCs.
Yep, an iMac with a TV tuner (or the modern equivalent – that pulls content from the cloud)
Total convergence. Totally obvious.
It may be obvious but that is precisely what the content creators and cable companies have been opposing with drm, QAM that’s not clear, cable cards that are unavailable or only partially functional. Anyone serious about watching HDTV on a 40″ screen or larger is still stuck in the 80’s with a cable box for each TV.
Mobile music is the trend nowadays, it makes sense to have great music on your mobile phone.–~
Bob, I think you are missing a very key part of the strategy. Apple is most definitely not giving up the computer market, nor the enterprise market. They may pretend that it’s not important, but that is a ruse to keep Microsoft from going ballistic. Microsoft is still very dangerous and must be kept out of panic mode.
The consumer devices are driving Mac sales more than any marketing program ever could. Perhaps it is too much to suggest iphone is a trojan horse to get people comfortable with Apple products. But I would not be surprised. Steve Jobs wants all the marbles. And he wants to show Gates that the PC war isn’t over yet.
Notice how iphones are being used throughout cube farms, and they are being accepted by IT departments. That means we are getting closer to the point where IT departments will be comfortable with Macs on corporate networks. I have it on good authority that iphones are now quite noticeable on Microsoft campus, and they are allowed wifi connectivity to the network!
Your comment about windows 8 being like OS X is kind of funny. Microsoft’s MO has always been to slap on a different GUI face, and give it a new name. So expect it to look like the competition, but not act like it. It will still have all the maintenance headaches it always had. Microsoft never understood that.
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mobile music is great, i love to listen to mp3 while on the move.–,
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Let us know how you get on with it. You are getting an iPhone 4, right?
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Hands down, Apple’s app store wins by a mile. It’s a huge selection of all sorts of apps vs a rather sad selection of a handful for Zune. Microsoft has plans, especially in the realm of games, but I’m not sure I’d want to bet on the future if this aspect is important to you. The iPod is a much better choice in that case.
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