What are the odds that this week’s story about the next-gen iPhone “found” in a Bay Area bar came about by accident? A quick survey of former and current Apple employees (okay, it was only four of them) came out 100 percent on the side of this being no accident but a deliberate plant on Apple’s part.
Look how the story grabbed headlines and created free buzz for Apple at a time when Apple doesn’t have a new iPhone to flog in the face of new phones from Microsoft and a bunch of new Android devices. By “losing” a phone Apple stole the attention and, in doing so, told us only one thing we didn’t know before — that the new phone will have two cameras. Big whoop. Thinner, bigger battery, more Apple components were all to be expected, but the second camera, of course, has us all thinking about iChatting on the bus to work, which is exactly what we’re supposed to be thinking about.
Remember Apple is the only phone vendor that has such tight integration of hardware and software services. Not even Microsoft or Nokia are in a position to offer something truly comparable.
Which brings us to the iPad, which doesn’t even have a camera. Why the heck not? Because adding one would have bumped-up the price, because the 300,000 people who bought a camera-less iPad on Day One will also buy another iPad with camera on the day that version is introduced. Once again Apple is playing to its strengths even in leveraging its weaknesses.
Apple is also about to effectively abandon one old power center in favor of a new one. Apple has historically had great success in education. Remember how Dan’l Lewin 25 years ago built Apple’s education sales operation into a powerhouse that is still an important profit center for the company? Now I am told Apple is about to shutter their education program in favor of shifting it into the Apple Stores.
The plan is for Apple to dismantle their higher education sales and pre-sales support division by October, shifting resources to support University sales at the Apple Stores and by telemarketing.
This makes sense and is probably even a good thing. It means more Apple stores in more cities and especially across the street from more colleges and universities. It gives Apple Retail greater resources at a time when the company is already gaining market share. And if Apple makes a serious grab for the textbook market with its iPad (hint, hint), they’d better have a shop nearby to support students.
If Apple was going to do something like this as a stunt, there’s no way in hell they’d let Gizmodo benefit from it. There’s a history there.
-jcr
Perhaps they can sue Gizmodo for destruction of personal property…
At least we know the “brick my iPhone “feature of Mobile Me works!
At least for me, I am SO HAPPY that the iPad does NOT have a camera. I never use the camera on my MacBook as it is, and if the iPad had a camera I wouldn’t be able to bring it to work, where I would use it the most.
Maybe they’ll come out with a removable camera that clips on. Or someone will. But jeez, what is the obsession with having a camera on everything? Just to support ONE type of app? (skype/etc) The overwhelming majority of people don’t care. So far, it’s only the tech bloggers that are complaining about it not having a front facing camera. My own informal survey has shown that the lack of a camera is not a huge deal at all.
Actually, the missing camera thing was a non-starter for me. I wanted one for my elderly parents. It’s the perfect web surfing/email machine for them.
However, inability to video chat with the grandkids made it a non-starter. I’ll wait.
gjs – but where does the camera face? straight on, so you have to hold it right in front of you, or at an angle so you could have it in your lap? or at the angle of either of the two propped up positions you get with the apple case? or is it supposed to move around?
it seems to difficult to implement a camera intended for video conferencing that would be useful for most people.
If nothing else, an iPad camera would drive sales of nose hair trimmers and assorted accessories. Who knows, nostrils could become the next hot body part.
I for one, would like to see https://www.bt-1.com/ work with iPad. A built in camera would ensure staring up your client’s nostrils.
I agree. I bought an iPad specifically so that I would have a portable computer that I can bring into courthouses, jails and locked psychiatric units where cameras are not welcome (or even legally allowed). No more having to get a court order to bring my computer to testify in court.
The engineer that was outed seems to have a LinkedIn profile and states he works for apple. Do you think the engineer is real and took a bullet for Steve or they faked up a linked in profile?
One part of your post is not quite correct:
Both RIM (with the BlackBerry/BlackBerry OS) and Palm (with the Pre & Pixi/webOS) produce both hardware and software. Unless you mean that Apple is the only company that does it for computers… but this whole post is about phones.
Perhaps the key word is “services”…like iTunes and “there’s a 100,000 apps for that.”
I looked at the IPAD and I like it but… I am going to wait for a clone that that is less closely tied to the APP store and more open
Yeah, cuz there are so many cool touch-centric Windows apps out there….
Go ahead and pretend to be an “open” oriented person, but the walled garden in this instance has more ecological diversity and openness, than the supposed open, non-Apple ecosystem. You think Windows Mobile will actually work or are you waiting for Unix tablets?
Dunno about Windows, but there are plenty of Android ones. Every single time I’ve heard about a cool iphone app, I’ve had an equivalent running on my nexus five minutes later. Guitar tuner? Check. Astronomy assistant? Check. Geocaching app? Check.
I don’t buy it.
The publicity surrounding this prototype is bad for current iphone sales — who’s going to buy a phone that they know will be obsolete by the summer?
This is the reason that Apple usually don’t announce products until they’re ready to ship.
Eh but everyone knows new iPhones come out every year in a month that begins with a ‘J’. I still don’t agree it was leaked on purpose, but I also can’t buy that this will hurt iPhone sales. Anyone paying attention to Gizmodo (granted this a ton of other media) will definitely know there’s a new iPhone coming out in June. They should have also already known it will have a high res screen, and a front facing camera has been rumored for years.
I can’t believe this is an apple stunt. Why would they *need* publicity right now? They just had one of the most media-crazed product launches in all of history, they had plenty of buzz about iPhoneOS 4.0, they did a very nice upgrade of the Macbook Pros, and they knew they were just a few days away from announcing blow-out financial results for the quarter. What, do they need some big press story EVERY SINGLE DAY?
And if so, what did this press story give them? As this article notes, “Basically nothing”. One minor tidbit that the next iPhone might have two cameras? And that the screen might be higher resolution? I really don’t see that as being enough buzz to be worth it. All this event did was give their competitors some advance notice that they should think about adding a second camera in the next cell phone they design.
Note that all the headlines were “Apple lost iPhone!” and not “New iPhone has such great new features that millions will line up to buy one!”. Compared to all the other great press Apple has had this month, that headline does not benefit Apple in any way.
If it keeps people from buying an Android to wait for the Next Big Apple Thing, it was worth it.
I find it hard to believe this was a plant, since Apple is the last company that needs extra publicity.
Apple can have free publicity anytime they choose simply by holding an event.
Its more likely this may have been a fake phone that was used by Apple to find a leak. They have done this sort of thing before, giving certain people “information” to see where it ends up.
I happen to watch prime time TV regularly. It’s filled with iPod, iPad, and iPhone ads (plus the Mac vs. PC ads) and has been for years. It’s enough to make me think that at apple, “Marketing is our Most Important Merchandise.”
Yeah, it’s sort of Occam’s Razor thing.
It is certainly possible that it was a plant. They had to call up an engineer and tell him that he should go out on his birthday, drink lots of beers, and then plan to leave his phone in the bar and to “make it look like an accident.” They had to make sure he had appropriate web-connections via LinkedIn and Facebook to make sure everything looked legit.
Sure, it’s possible. But it’s more likely that he’s an engineer who has a prototype for real-world testing and he accidentally left it in a bar after drinking too much.
I love a good conspiracy theory as much as the next guy. But you’re pushing it with this one.
As to the camera, I love the idea of using my iPhone or iPad for video conferencing. It’s a cool idea. The problem is that reality sets in.
Consider the iPad for a moment. Imagine it has a front-facing camera. How are you going to position it so you can be seen? Are your “elderly parents” going to hold it out at arm’s length for fifteen minutes while talking to the kids? Are they going to put it on a table at waist height and have it point up at them? Are they going to sit down and then futz around trying to get the camera to stay at the correct angle by stacking various books in front and behind it?
Ooh. Apple’s legendary “ease of use.”
The same thing goes with the iPhone. Yes, the iPhone isn’t that heavy, but hold it in your outstretched arm for more than 10 minutes and see how you feel.
[…] I, Cringely » Blog Archive » So a Guy Walks into a Bar… […]
Very simple, sure fire way to find out. If the engineer who supposedly lost it at a bar in Redwood City still has a job at Apple then it was a plant. If he does not, then it was an accident. How do I know this?! There are 2 reasons that make this litmus test work.
1. Apple is insanely notorious for secrecy and suing/shutting down any anyone/website that dares to leak information about new products.
2. I worked at Apple back in ’96/’97. Apple had bought NeXT and Jobs was back. A QA worker bee posted a joke that related to Jobs’ purchase of a house next to his in Palo Alto and the plan to tear it down. HR conducted a massive search thru QA to find the prankster. They found him and had his butt out the door that day.
If the engineer really lost it, then it would be very easy for Apple to find him and boot his butt out the door.
OK, I’ll bite on the Apple Education part of this post.
I strongly disagree that this is a good thing. I work at a major US university and we depend on the very excellent service of our local Apple sales rep. She does an amazing job and makes things happen for us in ways that no one at an Apple Store or over the phone from God-Knows-Where would ever be able to or interested in doing.
This is a tragedy, if true.
I work at a large univeristy too, and I’ve known our Apple reps forever. But if they were gone, we’d still probably buy the same amount of Macs. For now. But the best way to lose a customer is to ignore them, I’m not sure this would be a good move for Apple in the long term.
I am also at a university, and we require all of our students to have a computer. The vast majority of our students get their machines from a third party vendor. Not having to deal with mac’s would be a good thing. The students can easily figure out where to get a mac if they want one and can figure out how to get it serviced. This would be good for Apple and good for us since it would be one less thing for us to worry about.
Bob, you’ve gone off the deep end…C’mon, you of all people should know how S. Jobs is after following them forever; a “plant” is not in his nature—not part of his DNA!
My guess is that the employee who lost it was not supposed to take it off the campus, let alone into a public venue…
Oh, and I agree with your assessment of the iPad; no camera now, get the customers to buy another when it has it then…sure, smart marketing muchacho…
DT
From what I know of Apple, there’s no way in heck any engineer would ever be allowed to leave the campus with a prototype. Wouldn’t ever, ever happen.
I firmly believe this is a plant. I’ve just read too much about Apple’s R&D security to believe it could ever happens as the “official” story goes.
The long range plan is not an Apple Store across the street from the university, it’s to have an Apple Store on campus, right inside the university bookstore, eventually becoming THE university bookstore.
when it comes to smartphones, Apple’s tight integration of hardware and software should probably be compared with Palm and RIM. Unfortunately one is faltering, but good days at RIM should mean continued choice and competition.
my take: http://deviceconvergence.wordpress.com/2010/04/14/smartphone-ecosystem-part-7-operating-systems-1/
There’s no way this was a plant. Steve Jobs is a control freak and he would NEVER allow an outside website — especially one Apple doesn’t like — to control the release of info. And now Apple’s official unveiling this summer will be a complete anticlimax. Plus this gives Apple’s competitors several months advanced notice on the iPhone’s new features.
I think Apple will eventually sue Gizmodo, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Apple tries to influence the district attorney to charge Gizmodo’s executives with criminal charges (receiving stolen goods, etc.)
It wasn’t stolen, it was lost at the pub (a public location) and picked up by another person who, after he realized what he had found, sold it to Gizmodo for $5000. There is nothing Apple can sue Gizmodo about.
This was not a plant BTW. There is an eye-witness report that the engineer was very agitated when he came back later to the pub and couldn’t find the iPhone he had forgotten there. That’s a bit too much to believe it was all a sham.
No, the finder is guilty of theft if he makes no effort to find the real owner. Gizmodo is receiving stolen property, regardless.
Actually one correction I would like to point out. Nokia bought Trolltech a few years ago. Giving them a software solution at their disposal just like Apple.
There’s a pertinent history and commentary from Jonathan Seybold here:
http://outsideinnovation.blogs.com/pseybold/2010/04/jon-seybold-father-of-desktop-publishing-comments-on-the-appleadobe-feud.html
Worth the read…
Camera – or projector?
if apple puts a forward facing camera on their phones then we will know for sure that they have lost the plot. years ago phones had forward facing cameras and they went awa becuase the idea of staring into someones nose while you talk to them is horrendus- to stop this you would have to hold your phone out in front of you- thus making you look like the tecno equivilant of an ed hardy fan. apple are slowly losing it. shame
The lack of a forward-facing-camera was why I didn’t buy the iPad. My wife and I had planned to buy one for each of the grandparents so they could watch the grandkids grow up (we live far away).
Now we can’t wait for the HP Slate which does have a camera (if HP ever releases it of course). Our two-year contract is almost up on our iPhones and we look forward to upgrading; heck we might even use the HP Slate to sync it.
Appropriating others positions, whether lost, misplaced or left aside, is stealing. Selling stolen goods for financial gain, in this case 5k, is criminal.
The person selling and the people buying the stolen goods are of low character, anti – social, and acting against common civility. They also broke the law. Not only civil action should be taken, but law enforcement should take action on criminal charges for the sake of the community as a whole.
edit above: possessions versus positions,
however the end result might be the engineers loss of his position
You jumped the shark, Bob. I understand the pressure to constantly come up with something surprising and provocative but you are spoiling your record of correct prediction with stuff like this. Jobs is the master of introducing new versions of products. The notion that he would introduce a new version of the iPhone by having someone drop one in a bar is silly.
The only suspicious fact about this is that Mr. Powell didn’t have a password on the phone. With so much personal information available on the phone, it’s unthinkable that anybody would not use the password feature. And -that- would be a necessary requirement for Apple to have a successful leak. As for the phone going to Gizmodo, once the phone is leaked to a random location, Apple has no control over who got it. Heck, somebody from Adobe could’ve found it and that would’ve driven Jobs mad.
Do you think Apple will ever give away Iworks for free to dislodge Microsoft’s stranglehold on Desktop office applications (Office, Word, Powerpoint)? Apple and Microsoft probably have some deal in place to prevent this, otherwise Microsoft could retaliate by no longer licensing Office for the Macs. Plus, I don’t think we’ll ever see Iworks for Windows. Probably just wishful thinking.
Office, like Windows, has that universal support aspect from third parties and universal familiarity. Ther are plenty of free, compatible, office-like applications like Open Office, which some governments use and require. One more from Apple won’t matter.
A company with security as tight as it could be, where prototypes are not only hidden inside dummy cases but bolted down to tables, lets a junior engineer (only a couple years out of college) walk out of the premises with the most guarded secret – a prototype of a device which is to bring the company Billions in profits in the next year or so, by chance? And then he looses it in a bar by “accident”? Yeah right. Only if you are (ab)using some strong drugs or are in a denial (or Reality Distortion Field) can you believe this was not a deliberate publicity stunt.
Worked in a design center of one of the world’s top three cell phone manufacturers (two of them are based in Korea, one in Finland) for two weeks and experienced the tight security there – the X-rays, searches & everything. And as far as the stories go, Apple’s security seems to be even more tight. And I was never even near any prototypes; can hardly even imagine the security for guarding them.
As for front facing cameras: what, no phones in US have them??? In EU, all the UMTS phones have had a front facing camera for video calls for at least 5 years or so…
Nothing better than reading one more conspiracy theory.
Bob you’re competing with National Inquirer now.
UFOs are for real – The US Air Force does not exist.
If they did it on purpose.. I can think of a few of reasons:
1) Delays with the next iphone (i.e. it is NOT going to be ready for a July rollout), for whatever reason.
2) Stopping someone else from announcing something decent this week / next week (steal the limelight).
3) Throw us all off track with something we’ll talk about for weeks while they ready something new for a July announcement.
Ultimately, who cares anyhow?
John D. is correct. iPad gets a forward facing camera and I’m buying one for my Mother-Inlaw so she can do Skype with us and see her grandchild.
BTW: Back to the original subject – if indeed the Engineer lost it then he has probably already lost his job as well. Never should have had the prototype off campus.
Actually one correction I would like to point out. Nokia bought Trolltech a few years ago. Giving them a software solution at their disposal just like Apple.
does anyone have any info on whether or not apple is making a 3rg gen iphone this summertime, I want a fresh telephone now and was waiting on getting the up-to-date iphone and merely update it to the 3.0 in the summer, but i’m merely curious if it worth holding back in case a new one does come out
Jeezus why not offer an iPad with a camera and one without? Lame.
Isn’t the Lost iphone story about stolen goods? Did they file a police report? They should have. (If I find a phone, I give it to lost/found, ask around or to the restaurant manager).
“Never ascribe to conspiracy that which can be explained by stupidity.”
[Sorry, I don’t know who I’m quoting.]
Taking a hard look at the iPhone 4G photos shows that unless it is a very elaborate and expensive hoax (very possible in California, the home of Hollywood!) it certainly appears to be a late prototype, pre-production model.
What I find a little hard to believe is the purported email from Apple’s counsel …
Ok, it’s from a legal team apparently, which might explain the less-than-polite phrasing. (After all I’m sure the lost phone could easily have been sent somewhere more “interested” for a lot more money) but given Gizmodo is in New York (?) and the supposed sender of the email in California, it’s going to be hard for him to pop round and pick it up.
For a legal letter it seems a bit, er, phoney!!! 😉
The police raided the home of Gizmodo editor Jason Chen. You still think this is an Apple PR stunt?
Are you ever going to tire of being wrong or is that your job?
All part of a cunning plan that makes no sense to mere mortals– having the goon squad seize the property of their patsy to hide their part in the set up is a masterstroke… looking like bullies and making their current product line look outdated is a small price to pay for causing a distraction in the mobile space!
[…] a bar? A prototype that just happened to end up with technology blog Gizmodo? Of course, there was skepticism about how accidental that might have been, largely dispelled by Gizmodo. Now, despite the fact that […]
Forget the Ipad!
I want the Microsoft Courier! Now!!!!
[…] Robert X. Cringely’s take on the tale […]
Impressive report,I look forward to some more post from you.
In Apple’s East Coast Hi- Education Region…. Last year (2009) they had 10 very talented (aka well paid) higher ed representatives. Now there are 4, plus they also crudely chased away some of the best support people I have ever worked with. Apple’s program to replace campus stores with nearby by Apples stores has had a major effect on their sales (in the short term).
From the years of experience I have working with the Apple hi-ed team I cannot understand the goal of eliminating all this “Human Capital” and dedication to the hi-ed market place. We only do a small amount of business in this market but I will miss the professionalism squandered by the undereducated/inexperienced
local Apple management.
Excellent post,I anticipate many more post from you.
Planting a prototype iPhone in the wild simply doesn’t fit Apple modus operandi. Apple has their marketing to a science, and it’s heavily dependent on the “big reveal” at an Apple event to drive initial sales; Jobs wants his product launches to be like a bomb going off in the marketplace. Now that some of that steam has been lost, the iPhone better have some other big “Wow!” factor going for it that we haven’t heard about. (Verizon, maybe?)
Besides, if Apple were going to plant an iPhone in the wild on purpose, wouldn’t it have made sense to brick it beforehand? It was the experience of the person who found the unit that some of the Apple apps were buggy and crashed a lot; I don’t see how that benefits Apple for that to be known.
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