Near the eve of Apple’s tablet announcement, I’d like to turn my 2010 predictive eye again to the mobile space where, as my title suggests, there are only three software players that matter — Apple, Google, and RIM (Blackberry).
But wait a minute, isn’t Nokia the big Kahuna in this space and aren’t they right now suing the heck out of Apple? Yes, but that’s an act of desperation, a stalling tactic intended just to slow Apple down or, possibly, send some useful license revenue from Cupertino to Finland. It doesn’t change the inevitable.
So-called “feature phones” are going away, to be replaced within two product cycles (three years, tops) entirely by smart phones driven by mobile app stores and the need for carriers to generate additional revenue. It’s not like you’ll even be able to find a feature phone to buy.
The smart phone marketplace will consolidate around three operating systems — Android, Blackberry, and OS X. Though there will be some ups and down in the market and the complete transition will take longer to complete than my usual 12-month timeline, Symbian, Windows Phone, and every other smart phone OS that isn’t from Apple, Google, or RIM, are likely to die or be reduced to insignificance.
None of these platforms expect to die, but that’s the way it is with these things. You don’t expect to lose until you’ve lost, generally.
On some level Nokia even thinks it still has a chance to win the war, but it doesn’t.
Nokia has faith in its very popular cross-platform application development environment, Qt, which it acquired in 2008 with the $153 million acquisition of Norwegian company Trolltech, father of Qt. Nokia sees Qt as its secret sauce — a potent weapon against Apple.
Qt, like any of a number of 4GLs can write once and deploy a lot of places. Where Qt is different from the other 4GLs (in the mind of Nokia at least) is that it manages to do what it does without killing app performance, probably because Qt began as a mobile product and mobile apps have to be lean and fast.
So Qt is growing up at just the time applications and OSes are growing down, thanks to OS X and the iPhone. Qt has made notable progress supporting 3D apps and a huge variety of processors, chipsets, and GPUs. They showed at CES the same apps running from the same source on a ton of different hardware platforms from handsets to desktops to set top boxes. And now Nokia has reportedly done the unthinkable, which is to rewrite Maemo, its Linux, in Qt.
Meanwhile, Apple has been rolling forward with its PA Semi strategy, the first fruit of which we’ll apparently see announced next week. I sense that Apple is headed toward a family of devices from handhelds to servers all linked to a cloud and ostensibly running the same OS. Apple is mining the ARM ecosystem for this move in addition to its own PA Semi extensions.
Nokia thinks that, through either Qt or various legal moves (or both), it can slow Apple’s mobile juggernaut. They won’t, and here’s why.
Apple hires the meanest lawyers it can find, paying extra bucks for that “kick them for good measure” attitude. I know a company that had long legal battles with both Microsoft and Apple and they said Apple’s legal team was far worse than Microsoft’s, hands down. So while Nokia’s appeal to the World Trade Organization (WTO) to punish Apple, is an act of desperation, Apple’s similar response is just the way they do these things.
This legal situation is going to get uglier and uglier but in the end it will be settled with patent cross-licensing, no monetary damages or license fees, and Nokia feeling relieved to get out of the negotiating room alive.
This will happen, I believe, because Apple doesn’t really give a damn about Qt or Nokia. They care much more about Google and Microsoft.
Nokia is going to fail in using Qt and Symbian to compete with Android or iPhone application frameworks because Nokia just doesn’t understand software. Nokia is a hardware company that does software and hardware companies aren’t fighting this new war, they just build the weapons.
Remember Apple is a software company that sells its products in an expensive hardware box.
Ultimately (more than 12 months from now) there will be a shakeout and Nokia will drop Symbian and even Maemo in favor of Google’s Android and Nokia custom apps, UI, and hardware.
Meanwhile Microsoft will cut its rumored (and incredibly expensive) iPhone search deal with Apple, then it will introduce Windows Phone 7, which will fail to gain market traction for Redmond. Microsoft will ultimately align with Apple to avoid the embarrassment of working with Google, but this alignment will be solely for mobile.
That is unless Microsoft buys RIM and then doesn’t screw it up.
Well, at least somebody’s saying something about Nokia…
and that something is:Aloha!
Agree about the MS buys RIM part of it. MS needs to split itself up to survive.
Qt began as a mobile product
I always thought it began as the underlying technology of the KDE desktop on Linux about 15 years ago, and moved into the mobile space with Linux.
Qt’s main trick (signals and slots) was the college thesis of one of Troll Tech’s founders, and he started shipping Qt in 1994 or 1995, and it was used by KDE since 1996.
So, no, it makes no sense to say it started in phones since there was no phone at the time where you could run anything like it.
IIRC, the first Qt for phones is from the Qt 2.0 era, which means around 1999.
I agree that in the US it is likely that only 3 types of mobile smart phones will prevail. But I think that the worldwide market for mobile phones is big enough and diverse enough to allow more players including nokia and maybe even window mobile. I think that nokia has a chance to better tailor phones to international markets that are undeserved or ignored by the google, apple & rim.
Personally I hope that google buys sprint or tmobile and brings real competition to the mobile carrier market. att is spending less on providing decent coverage than it was a few years ago despite record profits. verizon has a better network but takes every opportunity to lock in their customers and screw them with extra fees. t-mobile and sprint are niche carriers at this point with inferior network coverage and speed.
Interesting.
I have thought for sometime that it would be in Apple’s best interest to buy/invest in a mobile telecommunications company solely because it would allow them to really control the whole widget. How great it would be for Apple to own the whole experience with iPhone.
I don’t see this happening though because I don’t see Apple being able to afford expensive upgrades to its telecommunication service. But it certainly would be a heck of a dream for Apple to do this.
You are getting to be too Kara Swisheresque with the cutesy pictures and headlines for your columns – please stop!
“Swisheresque” is way too funny.
I must counter this comment. I like the pictures and think they add to emphasize the point of the article (and also add subtle humour).
Indeed, Qt exists since 1994, so I wonder what mobile phone was it supposed to be running on!
*VERY* weakly fact-checked article,
“Remember Apple is a software company that sells its products in an expensive hardware box.” Interesting way to look at Apple. It does provide an explanation of their style-over-substance hardware. Conventional wisdom has said that Apple is a hardware company as an explanation of why they don’t sell their OS. I think they are a marketing company myself, which explains the iPad and everything else.
IMHO, Apple is a hardware company that uses software as the carrot. If you look at Apple as a hardware company, everything they do makes sense. If they are a software company, it does. Will they ever open the iTunes store to other MP3 players? No, because the point of the iTunes store is not to make money (as a software company would selling bytes) but to sell iPods (hardware). This same method applies to the software they create for the Mac and the applications and app store for iPhone.
This isn’t about engineers, or even hardware. Apple brings the whole enchilada into a locked-in ecosystem, reminiscent of Mickey Mouse as the Sorcerer’s Apprentice in Fantasia. Each piece links to something else Apple controls.
It’s the ecosystem, distribution, and channel controls that make Apple work. The iPhone and iPod are useless without iTunes. In turn, the downloads available for the iPhone mandate developers by them, and now Apple owns 99% of the smartphone apps market, according to Gartner. Google has an understanding of this, intimately. Ballmer’s been guessing for the past 10yrs– look at the XBox, Zune, the sad state of Windows Mobile, and so on. At least Nokia sells a bucket load of phones.
You think they are just a marketing company?! You obviously don’t get it.
Enjoy the kool-aid
You got it totally wrong. Apple is a hardware company that knows in order to provide true customer satisfaction you have also to deliver the software. Macs, iPhones, iPods etc. are so easy to operate because the engineers who build the interface know their hardware, how it works, what it can do and what not.
If Apple represents “style over substance” then how shall we characterize the companies that have followed their lead with similar GUI-based computers and capacitive touch screen mobile phones?
Jobs says that “form is function.” Others see aesthetics as eye candy that appeals only to conformists and hipsters. So does artless and tasteless equal substance then?
One can certainly argue that Apple has produced features that reasonable users might interpret as form over function. Nonetheless, it seems to me that Apple’s focus is on the experiential with aesthetic considerations just one means to that end.
In the meantime, Apple continues to earn the highest user satisfaction ratings in their categories, which suggests that substance _with_ style produces a positive user experience.
OK, I guess Mark (below) is right about it not being a marketing company and about what it really is.
Microsoft is going to try to do the same thing as Nokia and Qt with Windows 7 Phone and Silverlight which has been adding a lot of the same features needed to go mobile. Plus MS has mentioned a few times Silverlight is going mobile. Zune HD phone with Win7 and Silverlight will be a huge step up if it happens. It won’t matter though.
Not so sure. Did you see the excitement these last couple of weeks over any little bit of news for WinMo7? It still has significant market share, and if they nail WinMo7 right then they are still in the game.
This is their do or die moment.
Guess I missed all the excitement … wow … whoa … whee … whatever.
Will there ever be a WalMart-esque carrier? I don’t care if they have Zak Morris phones, I’ll switch to it.
Meanwhile Microsoft will cut its rumored (and incredibly expensive) iPhone search deal with Apple.
who will pay whom? and who cares. Actually, I know people do, but I sure don’t. i’d prefer to buy my mobileOS, phone, software (apps if you prefer) and plan separately. probably not happening in 2010.
p.s. I am glad you have a new post.I Your last one rings true, but is depressing.
Qt existed when mobile devices had their resolution measured in lines of text. I’m quite sure it was meant as a cross-platform user interface widget toolkit like Java Swing.
What does RIM need to do? Keep making incremental updates of the same bland devices?
15th
It should be Apple that buys RIM… not Microsoft! Apple needs to break into the business market and clearly, leaving such an important strategy up to 3rd party apps would be foolish. No, it should be Apple that snatches the business platform of the Blackberry and the BES Enterprise server from the market. From there, they would be killing two birds with one stone – one, removing RIM from going to Microsoft and – two, buying mobile business experience – and building and extending from there. Even with RIM under its belt, Apple still won’t break into the business market in a meaningful way until it buys or supports the development of a mid-tier ERP / Accounting software solution. (Microsoft owns at least 5 of those kinds of apps) Only then can mobile really make sense as a true business platform. The mobile device (iPhone) only has power as a business platform if Apple can own the back-end. To do that, they, or anybody else, needs the ERP system. Sure, it would be expensive and would compete with the iPhone, but one of the best ways to remove your competition is to buy them and embrace them.
No Apple will not buy RIM. Apples approach to the business market has constantly been through the boardroom not through the IT workforce. They know that getting corporate IT guys to buy in to Apple, (when their careers, as WinXXX certified whatevers are in the balance) is a losing battle. But the when the CEOs and Staff complain enough, IT will follow and support what ever Apple gadget they can’t live without. Apples is about change and profits, neither of which are easy to get when dealing with corporate IT.
I think MS must buy RIM. It’s their last chance (Palm won’t cut it) and makes a lot more sense that Yahoo! I don’t think it will work, but they have to try, to stay relevant in the mobile market.
Great read as usual Bob.
If Microsoft buys RIM, hopefully they would kill off the Blackberry Enterprise Server and just use ActiveSync. The iPhone, WinMo, and even Palm (WebOS) phones all support ActiveSync. I have had nothing but problems with the thankfully few times I’ve had to install and support a BES server. It is ridiculously expensive, buggy and horribly unstable. I refuse to support Blackberry phones on my network and will continue to do so as long as the BES is required to have the same functionality as ActiveSync.
I think Nokia has a chance in the MID space with Maemo.
You missed Palm (although if they don’t get their act together and actually sell GSM unlocked webOS phones sometime in the near future, they won’t be around much longer either.)
Palm would seem to be a much easier fit with Microsoft. Same country, same timezone, less expensive. Doubt Canada Gov’t will allow RIM to be sold to US Co., especially after Nortel collapse…
Max
I agree that MS could buy Palm a lot easier than RIM (fewer antitrust concerns). The problem is that WebOS is based upon a LINUX kernel and not a WINDOWS kernel. Someone at Redmond will look at that and say “We need to rewrite WebOS to use Windows and .NET.’ Then spend years trying to get that done while the whole enterprise goes down hill.
I like the fact that Microsoft made an announcement that AT&T will unveil a new Windows Mobile based smartphone the day after AT&T announced they were going to offer five new Android based phones. Too little too late.
Bob, how am I supposed to contact you a year from now when Windows phone is a success, to remind you of how wrong you were? You don’t have an e-mail address on the site that I can find…
Andrew, where did you look? On the “About Bob” tab you will find:
On How You Can Reach Him to Tell Him He’s a Dipstick
Robert X. Cringely
(707) 525-9519
(707) 525-9517 (fax)
bob@cringely.com
Are you talking about one phone or a couple?
Palm is going away, soon. they’ve been going away “someday, really” for quite a while. they don’t have resources left to keep swirling around the rim of the drain any longer. not a factor.
Is there really truth to the Apple Microsoft Bing search deal? I just don’t know why Apple would do this. It wouldn’t be money that’s for sure. Microsoft needs it more then Apple, so whats in it for Apple?
I see exactly what you are talking about in terms of the smart phone being the standard phone set. This is where I see android really making its worth. I already see $50 android sets available (though maybe dumbed down a bit). I think this is where Android will really take off. Just like windows for the PC did in.
Apple seems to be tying everything together in such a way that there will always be customers who want something that has such seamless and tight integration media/phone not to mention great software and hardware design.
I don’t know what I see with RIM and blackberry. They clearly have great inroads to corporate. But how long will that last? It would be interesting to see if Microsoft tries to buy them. Not sure if it even makes sense for MS to buy them out. MS has so many headaches at the moment, do they really want another?
Great points though Robert X.
Hey, Bob, what’s up with Google’s Stock lately? It’s been tanking BIG TIME.
I saw this and am wondering is this has anything to do with it, and if so why Larry and Sergey would want to dump all their stock in the first place?
http://gizmodo.com/5455045/larry-and-sergey-plan-to-dump-google-stock-and-give-up-voting-control
Thanks!
Bob, you’ve always said Apple is a hardware company that just makes slick software to sell said expensive hardware. Yet, in this post, you seem to contradict yourself. What gives?
The big hurdle is how Apple, RIM, Google will:
1) manage parental controls or legal liability for a lack thereof
2) manage digital signatures to fence out the organized frauds and cons
3) respond to the inevitable 1st zero day major exploit at App/OS/Net stack/Cloud
4) manage privacy policies for all the end user data converging into the cloud.
Apple leads in #1 by a hair.
All 3 tie for #2 but are a folly as to what is really needed.
RIM and Google have advantage in #3&4
Next up.
Will the telecoms alone be responsible to give up the “big brother” placations?
1) Traceable to an account of credit or able give up great GPS & logs to law enforcement
and/or
2) “Easy to hack into” by Law Enforcement who “happen to have” all the encryption keys already despite great accolades for GSM crackers. Not just the voice but the data streams as well.
3) Have built in a poison pill for the data if the unit is ever “lost”
Apple & RIM is the loser on these first two. Their culture of secrecy doesn’t go well with bureaucratic oversight.
Google is already there to help gov. I’ve yet to hear of Apple cooperating with gov on much let alone legal requests for device/app store logs
For #3 Apple/ATT cooperation with legit owners of stolen iPhones is well documented as spotty to poor. Google&Wireless vendors haven’t a track record
Thus Blackberry&Wireless vendors seem to be a leader for these hurdles.
Lastly origin/manufacture.
Remember if there only 3 vendors left, even the POTUS would be forced into using one of them. All vendors will need a special area in their app store for the real super encrypted apps. For all the usgov, FCC,NIST, FBI, NSA, .mil’s have to go over the device with a fine tooth comb. RIMs were made in Canada and Mexico. The iPhone and Android are .CN? Hmm… Potus is going to have a RIM for a long while.
I’ll be very surprised if, in 2-3 years, Apple, RIM and Google are the only players left in the mobile space in Africa, Asia and South America. Does the USA really account for the lion’s share of global mobile revenue?
One more thing to realize is Nokia is a hardware company but they are no Apple when it comes to software. I think that’s what Bob was getting at.
Weather Apple is a hardware or software company, clearly they do both very well. Nokia on the other hand not so much.
Thanks Bob.
But do they need to be? Ok, Apple seems to be in a league of their own with user experience, but this doesn’t mean everybody else has to just dissapear.
Speaking as an European mobile phone user, I enjoy Nokia “feature” phones. I consider the current smartphones as still too expensive for what I’m willing to pay for a phone (around 100 euros,). A Nokia feature phone can be had for that amount or less, it has a 2 inch screen, does Internet over GPRS/EDGE/3G, email, Java apps and games and you can buy them in the Nokia Ovi store or at your carrier (such as Orange World). And the best thing is, I can shove the thing in and out of my pocket all day long, I can drop it, scratch it and so on, without caring for it as if it were a porcelain statue.
So why do I want a smartphone for? Something like the iPhone, with larger touchscreen, “true” OS, WiFi etc. is a different class of devices. Some of us still want just a mobile phone with some added perks. My guess is there will always be a market for classic format, cheap feature phones. As long as Nokia doesn’t spread too thin and becomes forced to cut things down, I see no reason for them to end their lower end lineups.
In contrast to Apple, Nokia has a great phone device and a lousy PDA. I think
it’s easier to fix Nokia’s problem then Apple’s. They can open their devices to Android.
Apple will not be able to win this hardware+software price battle. They will be rich but will not conquer the market.
Oh, I didn’t forget the telco providers, I don’t think they are in this game anymore, mainly because they can’t control which devices are allowed to use their networks
and thus can’t make meaningful revenue stream here.
That’s one more reason why Nokia, BFF of all providers, is in trouble.
I don’t think RIM can help MS in anyway. RIM supports office products, including exchange, so why bother?
Microsoft may be in real trouble because I don’t see their OS to be dominant in the new era of Mobility.
Their familier GUI has no use in the plethora of current and future devices and if they “un-bloat” their office suite, then what’s left?
Mobile is envisioned as small and agile – far from MS products today 🙂
So you think it is harder to design a phone than a pda?!?!? Wow, are you clueless.
I was referring ( not so clear though ) to marketing aspects rather than technical.
Sorry about the confusion.
PS Wasn’t clueless a teen tv series ? 🙂
Exclusive leaked shot of the Apple Tablet http://yfrog.com/1yuydvj
Bob, whatever happened to java? It seems like a couple years ago many were writing that ‘java will take over the phone business, and all smartphones will use jave.’ Yet here you don’t even mention it. What a fall!
I’d like to read more of your thoughts on WinMo7 — is it just too late for Microsoft, no matter how great WinMo7 might be? — or do you simply count on Microsoft delivering a mediocre, far-behind, product, then charging for it, next year when Android will be onto ‘Froyo’ and free?
I’d say Android ‘is’ Java.
This seems like a very US centric prediction. I don’t see the emerging/3rd-world phone market switching over to smart phones quite so fast. Secondly two of your 3 winners produce combined hardware/software platforms. Are you saying all Nokia/Samsung/LG/Motorola/Sony/etc. phones will be running Android? If that’s the case than Android truly does become the Windows of the mobile world and Apple, well they continue to be Apple, small marketshare but highly profitable. RIM’s platform isn’t nearly as good as Symbian or Windows and as email becomes a commodity I don’t see RIM being able to keep up.
Ok, agreed that OSX (iPhone) and Android are going to be the top 2.
I very much doubt that MS/WindowsMobile will gain #3, but anything’s possible.
However, Nokia is not going to be irrelevant no matter what. Symbian will likely go away, as will Maemo. However, Nokia is pushing all that stuff to Qt, which already runs natively under Linux. So they’ll likely push Qt onto Android.
For that matter, Android will likely adopt Qt in the long term any how as Gtk is just utterly ancient. Qt provides better flexibility, easier support, and very good multi-platform support.
Qt will be relevant because of its ease of use. Unlike Java and everything else, it’s very easy to use and provides native performance – all with threading, data sharing (memory/etc), networking, and more built-in.
What do you expect will happen with the Openmoko FreeRunner?
Cross-licensing sounds good. Aren’t there a lot of Apple touch screen patents?
Considering that there will be three platforms, and duly noting that two of them are locked down in strongly vertically integrated premium ecosystems, I’d guess some form of Android will run on the unwashed 90%+ of future phones. Maybe RIM will fall by the wayside too. Maybe Nokia will get their act together (with or without their own fork of Android).
This is a very US-centric post. Apple has very low market share outside the US. Nokia is the opposite — low US, high international. Blackberry, I don’t know but it’s probably mostly US.
Most of the world (billions of users) can’t afford smart phones. My guess is the free/inexpensive choices will be very relevant for decades to come.
I just don’t see the sort of lock in that you have with the desktop/notebook market. People change their phones every 2 years or so, and unless there is a killer app that makes one phone OS irresistable, I don’t see the market so difficult to crack once all of the phone OSes become “good enough”. So I don’t write off Nokia or Microsoft yet.
The app store is the lock on the door right?
The growing applications will be equivalent of lockin, because if you have a phone with some great applications you like why would you switch? Increasing the iPhone and Android phones are like razors and the applications are the razorblades.
Also imagine you are a software developer of mobile phone apps. How many mobile platforms would you support, if the iPhone, Android and Blackberry dominate?
I mostly agree with Cringely, but for one thing. Apple patents will amount to nothing, and they will pay royalties, expensive royalties, to Nokia, because, of course, they can’t _not_ make the iPhone, and they can’t make it without Nokia’s patents. Of course, we won’t hear a thing about this.
Right now Android is the hot alternative to Apple OS, but I wonder how long it would last after Google’s Chrome OS netbook comes out. How/Will Google consolidate/reconcile Android and Chrome when all mobile devices and apps (across the same manufacturer/software maker) begin to blur in near future? Will WebKit become the most common default platform?
I keep wondering when a Chinese company will rise up to offer and dominate with a Chinese version of the Android or Windows, and overcome Google and Microsoft entirely in the Asia market, like Baidu’s success in China.
Device market share may not directly correlate to profitability. So even if 90% of all phone buyers in the world uses Nokia, Apple may still make more money. That is the most important bottom line to stay in business.
Chinese “Android”: good point. That would incidentally ensure the phone is, shall we say, compliant with all local regulations.
It doesn’t matter who makes an Android phone, because Google wins. The Android or Chrome OS will be the best mobile way to access the Internet and Google applications. Google makes it’s money from Ads, not software or mobile phones, just eye balls. If the iPhone became the dominate way the access the Internet, then Google would be threatened, so hence the Android and ChromeOS.
Just a couple thoughts-
The mobile phone market is nothing like the desktop market. The mobile market has faster turnover, cheaper devices, broader user-base. People expect them to behave differently as well. Even with app stores, people will be much more willing to jump platforms.
Please Bob, stop the Apple is a Hardware v.s. Software company crap. They have always been both (to varying degrees of success). And now with the incoming “appliance” paradigm shift (and way from Microsoft’s business model) participating companies have to be both. I guess Apple has always been an appliance company.
Eventually smartphones, laptops, desktops and all things computer will merge. You’ll come home and plop your handset into a docking station and boom. It’ll connect to your large format monitor, full sized keyboard and mouse. You’ll print your reports from it and edit some photos you took with it.This is gonna kill any need to run Windows. Most of these devices will be ARM chip based running Android, OS X, or Rim. X86 processors and Windows will become a niche products. I actually like Windows 7 and my X86 based desktop (right now I’m running Linux though). But it is what it is. If I could accomplish everything I wanted to do on an ARM based tiny PC running Linux I would do it now. Why have a separate desktop, laptop, handset, etc, etc, etc? Smartphones will be the core that runs all kinds of new peripherals that will be built to support them. Instead have having to synch up all my contacts and files with a plethora of other devices, it’ll all be in my little phone. I mean why should I pay for 4 different toasters in my house that all work differently? I only need one 4 slice toaster.
Right… but your toaster only makes toast and doesn’t also mix, grind, and slice. Computing will have niche products that will do specific things for which they were designed. And just like all appliances need power, all these computing devices will share data via the data cloud.
The analogy maybe flawed, but the point is still valid. if a handset can do 90% of what you need, other solutions are relegated to niche status. I say Microsoft and Intel have some huge uphill battles to wage. And it don’t look good for them.
When all computers merge into one small smartphone-sized device, I hope they also come up with new technology that prevents it from being left in a taxicab.
“You’ll come home and plop your handset into a docking station and boom. It’ll connect to your large format monitor, full sized keyboard and mouse.”
I’m already doing that with my OQO 2+ and it’s dock: http://www.oqo.com . Since the company went out of business it sometimes shows up on eBay for $3K to $6K. But the only way to make voice calls is with skype. Oh, it runs Vista (or 7 if you go to the trouble of installing it).
That is a nice little pc, but it’s still running an Intel Atom. The ARM has over 90% of the smartphone biz. It uses less power and is a very good processor. Intel is still in big trouble. It isn’t easy to find a smartphone with an X86 and running a version of Windows. Intel and Microsoft are being passed over.
If x86 is being passed over, that would include Linux and OSX as well as Microsoft. For most people, a smart phone is not a replacement for a pc but an additional appliance that must be synchronized to another pc or the cloud or both.
The iPhone runs OSX on an ARM processor. Android is Linux running on an ARM. I have been seeing lots of Netbooks running ARM. X86 is in trouble.
We develop extensively using QT.
QT is good but doesn’t stand any sort of chance competing with Apple at any level.
The main reason is that QT lacks visual/graphic design focus and it lacks polish. Software frameworks like this have to look super awesome in 2010 and QT just doesn’t grasp that. It’s an engineering driven technology and they just keep on adding feature after feature but never come back and write great documentation and leave everything in an unpolished 90% good state, then hurry on to implement the next cool entirely new set of features.
QT doesn’t care much about things looking awesome, although they probably think they do.
The engineers are in control at QT and the designers are in control at Apple.
The biggest markets in the world are China and India.. where the drive and the market push has been for less expensive “simpler” phones. This whole focus on the US market doesnt address the emerging markets where Nokia has tremendous cache and brand loyalty.
Spot on .. except that I expect Microsoft and Nokia to get in bed together – most likely for an OS…
You’re right about there being only 3 players but the 3rd won’t be RIM but Windows Mobile. RIM can’t make the transition to software. MSFT will get there act together and become an alternate, probably #3 with 10-15% market share.
It’s about software.
[…] telefoner, de som utvikler software og de som leverer nettverkstjenester? Forfatter og blogger Robert X. Cringely går så langt som å hevde at til tross for stadig flere aktører, er det bare t… “The smart phone marketplace will consolidate around three operating systems — Android, […]
Apple is neither a software company, nor a hardware company, nor a marketing company. It’s a cult.
It’s hard to write off Nokia. What is driving me toward Nokia is the fact that I can buy the N900 phone unlocked and use it with any provider on the planet. Nokia is currently big enough (or desperate enough) to do this. I am so sick of expensive 2-year contracts, and I just might trade in my iPhone 2G for an N900 (or E72) when my contract expires.
Nokia is Mac friendly, their smart phones offer a lot of features one can’t find in iPhones or other phones, and they offer one the freedom of landing anywhere, popping in a SIM card and going on one’s merry way. (I still got my EU phone.)
The exclusivity deals with providers will ultimately act as bottlenecks for smart phone market share. These deals are slowly becoming a thing of the past, but as long as they are present, Nokia offers freedoms that other providers simply can’t.
So, don’t forget to factor in the stupidity of the telecom oligopoly.
Some people just want a phone!
Feature phones will be around a long time because there is a need for them. Many people do not want a smart phone nor do they want to learn how to use one.
Maybe you don’t have older relatives but I do, and although they like some technology they don’t want or need that much with their phone. And although they go online and check emails or whatever, there is no way on earth they could ever be comfortable reading small print on a smart phone to do it, so they simply won’t do that on a phone. And I don’t blame them!
Not just old relatives. Our fantastic IT guy is happy to use the company iPhone, but he won’t give up one Samsung phone that he has with his personal Verizon service just because, to paraphrase him, it’s a great phone and the iPhone is a lousy phone.
Agreed. Some people just want a phone. I have a Samsung B2100 that’s waterproof. Until a smartphone can stay submerged for an hour and survive a 1-meter drop to a concrete floor, they can try and pry my Samsung (and its lousy OS) from my cold, dead hand.
You folks just aren’t listening… As has been said here before, Microsoft cannot buy RIM, or at least cannot buy it without conditions that MS would find unacceptable. RIM is a Canadian company, and a takeover is subject to the provisions of the Investment Canada Act. Google that, if you like – they have a handy FAQ if you don’t want to read a bunch of legalese legislation and regulations. Bottom line is that such an investment must be of “net benefit to Canada”, and a one-time payout of a billion or two to Balsille and Lazaridis just won’t cut it. This isn’t another “AMD buys ATI”, where the ICA conditions were satisfied by some minor sops to the locals, and the company was under financial suspicion in any case. Nor is it another “selling off the dregs of Nortel” – RIM is an iconic homegrown success story in its prime, and no matter how much Harper and his cronies would like to cave to the US, it ain’t going to MS or any other foreign company without political consequences that would be unacceptable. Of course if RIM turned into another Nortel, with financial diddling and plumetting stock, then sure. But at that point why would MS or anyone else care about them, other than to sweep up a few almost expired patents?
If I had to choose between my laptop and my phone, I’d give up my laptop. In many countries, and not just Third World nations, the phone is the computer, the phone is the wallet, the phone is how that person consumes news and entertainment, the phone is how that person creates/reports news and entertainment, the phone is their main connection to the world and the center of that person’s universe. Yes, there are some people that just want a phone but they will (if not already) be the minority.
What phones will dominate in the next few years? Apple is a safe bet. They’ve built the ecosystem and understand that design is a must for such a personal device and important device.
Google’s approach of giving away the software will allow them to stay on top but I think the wireless service providers and handset makers can fracture the Android experience.
Where I disagree with Cringely in the top three is that I think Nokia will remain alive and change enough to keep the markets where apps controlled by an American/Western company are not looked upon with favor by the local government. Not that it’ll help those nations keep their people from virtually mingling with the world, but they’ll try.
Until we see Windows Phone 7 we can’t count out Microsoft.
Seamless integration with Windows and Office is a huge advantage (if they make it work). Plus they could make their development environment completely .Net and then you would see a lot of applications on their app store very soon.
Google might be a software company but their User Interfaces are horrible and Microsoft has much more products they can use to give them a competitive advantage such as XBox.
My guess:
Apple, Microsoft and then maybe RIM or Android
Bob,
Is there a reason you refuse to spell BlackBerry using it’s trademarked spelling (two capital B’s)?
He probably doesn’t want to infringe their trademark! 🙂
No, but seriously: He’s not a RIM salesman, so why should he employ their trademark — in essence, do their marketing for them?
Perhaps you’ve misunderstood what trademarking is all about. In this case, it means RIM can *stop* people from using their trademarked silly spelling where RIM doesn’t want them to; it does NOT, on the other hand, mean that they could *make* anyone use their trademarked silly spelling under any circumstances whatsoever. (Well, unless he were employed by them or something, of course.)
HTH!
Although you are often close to the mark, to say that feature phones will be entirely replaced by smart phones is missing one important thing – style! Smart phones tend to be larger than ‘stylish’ feature phones so they won’t slip into small, ‘stylish’ handbags so easily – lots of users do prefer the small form factor. Also, not everyone wants to surf the web whilst out and about, some people want to, you know, just use them to make phone calls.
Come on now, your Qt history is a bit off, you should know better. It was not even available on a mobile platform until 2008… http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qt_(toolkit)
It is much more like apples cocoa framework then you say. Nokia STILL has more then 50% of the world market. Apple does not have the diversity to supply the needs or demands of the world market place not, top 20% of the world, yes, rest no. To be honest I think a better prediction would be Nokia licenses webOS from palm, or flat out buys palm, and includes Qt. The market is big enough also, there does not have to be a “winner”. Diversity, competition, and profit can all co exist. You are STILL thinking in Microsoft economic terms.
>>And now Nokia has reportedly done the unthinkable, which is to rewrite Maemo, its Linux, in Qt.<<
Huh? Maemo, Nokia's linux distro is based on Debian and is not 'written' in Qt. That's like saying Ubuntu is 'written' in GTK.
Agreed, I think he meant to say something like “…Maemo, its Android, in QT.” That’s how I took it, anyway.
Ha Ha nice one, very funny 😀
You’ve really got your finger on the pulse of technology haven’t you?
Advantageously, the post is certainly a laudable topic about the ipad. Although I dot harmonise with some minor points in general I
I just set my alarm for “more than 12 months from now” — I’ll check back to see your follow-up article…
Best regards,
Maemo fanboi
“feature phones are going to disappear …”
Can’t agree with that. See this excellent analysis on why they won’t disappear anytime soon :
https://www.visionmobile.com/blog/2010/01/behind-the-smartphone-craze-redrawing-the-map-of-mobile-platforms/
Instead of disappearing, lines will blur between what is a smart vs dumb phone.
Device makers like Samsung, LG make very nice touch phones that would qualify as “feature phones” by technical software standards (i.e. with a proprietary real-time OS) but actually have polished UIs and all features you’d expect from “smart” phones.
And they actually sold 330 millions of those last year.
Compare that with the # of iPhones sold in 2009: 25 millions
There was an interesting chart in today’s Nokia earnings report.
It looks that they’ll continue to be strong in the developing markets where mobile handset is the most important software platform.
NOKIA MOBILE DEVICE VOLUME BY GEOGRAPHIC AREA
(million units) 2009 2008 YoY Change
Europe 107.0 114.9 -6.9%
Middle East & 77.6 81.0 -4.2%
Africa
Greater China 72.6 71.3 1.8%
AsiaPacific 123.5 134.0 -7.8%
North America 13.5 15.7 -14.0%
Latin America 37.6 51.5 -27.0%
Total 431.8 468.4 -7.8%
can’t be more wrong mr. cringely
I distinctly remember owning a sharp zaurus 5500:
http://ixbtlabs.com/articles/sharpzaurus/index.html
it ran linux with a QT ui.
in 2002
QT is not an os it is a ui, like Aqua, or Aero. again, it is not an OS. what Nokia did was buy a portable UI library from a company that made the best one available at the time, and is now porting their skin or theme to that UI.
this is because the nokia OS was several different OSes, and developers were sick and tired of having to write their app multiple times for the same manufacturer’s different hardware.
Bob:
As author of BlackBerry Planet (Wiley, 2009), I have to agree with your contention that RIM will be one of the last three standing. They have good strong cash flow from their BlackBerry Enterprise Server business that can subsidize their global thrust. They are clearly targeting Nokia while they are down. They now make their low end smartphones in factories around the world. They act like Nokia and forge strong partnerships with local carriers to they can adapt to local conditions. And they are finally getting a decent browser based roughly on WebKit. One of RIM’s big advantage is their frugal use of bandwidth. In some cases they use 1/20th of the bandwidth that the iPhone uses.
Alastair Sweeny
Hey, for once I beat the master at the prediction game!
Bob, your article is so close to the one I wrote on my blog back in 2007 (itself the summary of an article I wrote in the Greek PC magazine three years before that in fact) that I would be tempted to sue you. (Were it not for the fact that your articles inspire me and ignite my thinking process so often that it is usually the other way around!!)
For what it is worth for all of us in the tech prediction game:
https://www.alexanderchalkidis.com/blog/post/2007/12/Why-I-would-not-rush-to-buy-Nokia-stocks-or-buy-their-phones.aspx
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Hey Bob!
Not sure if you remember me… I have been quite most of my reading life on your blog. I have followed you from your days of writing “Revenge of the Nerds”, and you are one of my heroes. You rock.
Today I came across some pretty cool statistics which I figured you might find interesting. The premise of the blog article I read? That iPhone is dead, and Android is king. The author based his argument on the fact that market share for Android phones is up 6%, iPhone is “just holding ground”, and RIM is down 5%.
My oh My, to believe market share is everything…. what naivety!
(You can read the article – and my thoughtful response – at https://www.businessinsider.com/android-iphone-market-share-2011-4#comment-4d9a234449e2ae4a034d0000)
The reason for this message?
First, to tell you YOU ROCK.
Second, to tell you the market is proving you right (again!). This article is now becoming true. You better go write one of those “I told you so” in the humble style you always do….
And third, to ask what you think. This guy thinks there will only be one dominant platform. I disagree with him, and agree with you: There will be THREE platforms; one designed for the ‘cheap’ segment’; one for the ‘average’ segment, and one for the ‘premium’ segment. Cheap one? It will end up being RIM (They don’t see it that way, but will be forced that way…). Average? Android (the pace of development is already placing them ahead of RIM for corporate market). Premium? iPhone (it’s not the phone; it is what the combination of three of Apple’s products can do for people who have no free time and like their toys). So that’s my point of view. What do you think?
Keep rocking…. by the way, what ever happened after the entrpreneurship VC bus tour? (Can’t remember the name of the project, but I *love* the way you think!). And congrats also on setting the wheels in motion for the Supertanker drops in Japan. Amazing what one man with a good brain and a devoted audience can do….
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[…]I, Cringely » Blog Archive Mobile 2010 Predictions: Apple, Google & RIM, Oh My! – I, Cringely – Cringely on technology[…]…
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