More 2010 predictions, this time for Google, which is reeling right now from cyber attacks in China and customer attacks in the U. S. where the Nexus One is getting an underwhelming response from early adopters.
Here’s word from a friend of mine — a smart phone whore — who had a Nexus One for a month and didn’t tell me until this morning. Still, his reactions are informed and represent a month of experience. “I’m not too impressed with it as a phone, ” says my friend. “It’s basically a wash. Google is screw’n it big time with the horrible plans they are dishing it out on t-Mobile and the price is ridiculous. To beat all, it’s radio is horrible, so bad that I literally gave it back and returned to a clunky G1. There is no decent smart phone out right now except the Moto Cliq unless you are lucky enough to have good AT&T coverage with an iPhone, which I don’t.”
Early Nexus One users hate the phone, hate the plans, hate the network, hate the price, but what they hate most of all is Google’s lack of customer service. Shouldn’t Google have seen this coming? Of course, but the company operates in a bubble that market realities often can’t penetrate. Eventually Google will be good at this stuff, but how long will that take? Too long?
What amazes me is the bad radio given that this is an HTC product and HTC is a very good mobile phone manufacturer. Taking a guess about what’s happening there I predict that HTC warned Google about the radio problem but there were so many IQ points jetting around the conference room at Google that nobody bothered to actually listen they were so much in love with each other. Sometimes just being smarter is not enough. In fact just being smarter is never enough, even at chess – a lesson Google will have to learn the hard way, I suppose.
Now to China where hackers or spies or who-knows-who have been attacking Google and the search giant is threatening to take its ball and go home, leaving completely the Chinese market. What sense does this make? It makes no sense to me. Google is going to have zero impact on China — zero — by abandoning that market, which Microsoft and Yahoo will gladly fill. so threatening to walk away is simply stupid.
Of course Google couches all this in terms of rejecting Chinese government censorship, which is a good thing, but we’re still left with either posturing that isn’t real or stupid-ass behavior that is real but shows this isn’t likely to be the Google Decade after all.
Here’s a better approach for Google to take. Stand in front of a bank of cameras and microphones my very impressive friend Tiffany Montague (Google’s link with NASA, keeper of the Google G-V parking spaces at Moffett Field, and internal space expert) to have her explain how Google is going to launch a satellite Internet service similar to one I described in a recent column, specifically to bring freedom of information (and advertising) to totalitarian regimes everywhere.
The technology exists, Google could finance it, and China couldn’t stop it.
This assumes, of course, that Google has some guts, which I doubt.
Otherwise, 2010 looks like a good year for Google mainly because Internet advertising will recover somewhat and Google should make some progress in phones, browsers, operating systems, apps, and the cloud in general. In those areas they are still ahead of the curve and ahead of the curve is a great place to be.
Google satellite internet? That will be about the time we find out how good China’s ASAT capabilities are.
Or they could just jam the signals.
I agree Thinking: Or they could shoot down the satellite. They already demostrated that with one of their weather satellites. If China will run over their own people with tanks they will not hesitate to shoot down a pain in the ass satellite.
Most fascinating to me about this particular set of predictions is that search is not covered at all, including among the many tech domains in which it is suggested that Google will remain ahead of the curve. It’s implicit in the advertising acknowledgment, but is Google really so far ahead in these areas that sublimating search doesn’t really matter?
I’ve set my default search to Bing 3 times, and left it that way until I couldn’t find what I wanted. The first time lasted ~10days, the last two times < 2 days each.
Search isn't in danger yet.
I use Google to search for MicroSoft patches. Bing doesn’t cut it.
The battle is joined. Google finally had the scales fall from their eyes regarding to China. To Google, I say, “Welcome to the fight.”
I fail to see how satellite internet would make it easier for Chinese citizens to circumvent their government’s internet restrictions. All China has to do in order to maintain their iron-clad grip on the internet in their country is to make it illegal to sell receivers.
That’s harder than it might look. I recall seeing a photo a few years ago from a middle eastern city and every rooftop had a satellite tv dish. The caption explained that every single one was illegal, but practically speaking there was nothing they could do about it.
There’s a huge difference between the Saudi govt, which has a tenuous grip on its citizens at best, allowing rich people to get the Fashion Channel, and the Chinese, with its iron grip, allowing the new middle class to get access to dissident blogs.
The Saudis know that letting their citizens watch HBO and ESPN actually placates them. The Chinese fear, rightly, that letting their citizens think freely will risk revolution.
I would guess it would be “easier” to shoot the satellite down then to prevent the receivers from being sold.
Actually taking out the network would require dozens of anti-sat missiles. That’s not entirely unlike war.
So what, exactly, would you call launching a network of satellites with the express purpose of circumventing Chinese national infosec? Playing golf? I think the Chinese would definitely consider shooting down these satellites especially if the open pipe was causing the regime trouble. And what’s any other reasonable government going to say? Nothing.
I’ve heard it said that the iPhone is a good pocket computer and, by the way, you can
make phone calls too. It got me thinking about an old sci-fi TV series about big blue aliens
on earth that were friendly (or maybe not). Anybody remember that? Anyway, the govt. agents working
with them had neat pocket phones. They were a cylinder and when they got a call they held it up and unrolled
the screen. It was a video phone. I saw in an airline mag. a few years ago about a company that was
developing a flexible membrane that was a speaker and microphone combined. I also just saw an article about
a company that is developing a flexible display. It bends but not a lot (yet). So, now it seems we can
really build a pocket computer and video phone. When you get a call, just hold it up and
pull out the screen like a little window shade. There’s your video phone. If the screen is
touch sensitive, you could lay it on a table and display a keyboard. It could have a pull-out
ear bud for private conversations. You could watch movies on it, make video phone calls,
and do your computer stuff. All in one. Neat!
>> It got me thinking about an old sci-fi TV series about big blue aliens
>> on earth that were friendly (or maybe not). Anybody remember that?
>>Anyway, the govt. agents working with them had neat pocket phones.
Sure, Sounds like Earth: The Final Conflict – Gene Roddenberry’s final show – really good the first year or two, then dumbed down and redesigned on the fly by the syndicating company …
But the roll-up communicators WERE quite cool!
Interesting comments on the Nexus. It totally caught me off guard because the two friends I have running it are both very happy with it, and one of them left the iPhone for it and is actually happier on the Nexus.
Also, the reviews so far have been quite positive. Anyway, just surprised to see it discussed as if it was universally panned when this is the first on balance negative press I’ve seen for the phone itself. (the customer service problems are clearly real).
Yes, we understand. Flaws and shortcomings are only to be tolerated in Apple products.
“I predict that HTC warned Google about the radio problem but…”
As Yoga Berra said, prediction is really hard, especially about the future.
But predicting the past is easier.
HTC makes a lot of phones, but I’ve never known them to make a good one. The relationship between Google and HTC has always seemed a little bit awkward and driven more by convenience than anything else. HTC makes mediocre phones running every OS so why not add droid to the mix. Google just needed someone to make hardware. Until Motorola came on board, things were looking a little bleak for droid. Perhaps the biggest problem with the Nexus One is that it only runs on T-Mobile’s network right now so it’s done absolutely nothing to break the anti-competitive nature of the U.S. mobile phone market. Mission not accomplished.
How things will play out with Google leaving China is hard to determine. Everyone acts like they are such a small player in China, but 30% of the market is pretty big. Remember, Bing was a smashing success with 10% of the market, right? I think Google is placing a long term bet that political change is coming to China and they want to be on the right side of history when it does, be that 25 or 50 years out. Chinese companies, even state owned companies, still need Google to advertise their products in foreign markets. China is clamping down right now due to the upcoming succession in the communist party, but over the long term it will likely continue to liberalize, albeit slowly. Even the Chinese political elite see this as a given. In a few years, all of this will be forgotten and Google will still have a presence in China.
You need to read James Fallows on Google vs China:
http://jamesfallows.theatlantic.com/archives/2010/01/first_reactions_on_google_and.php
Also, consider how much Google is investing in cloud services, which have to be secure. How much do they lose if they get a reputation for not doing anything when Chinese government hackers try to compromise them?
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Bob’s article is about LEOsats, which wouldn’t use dishes–just simple small dipole antennas. There would be lots of them in order for one of them to be above your horizon all the time. That would require lots of shoot-downs to shut it down. That would have diplomatic (maybe military) repercussions. And if there’s lots of them, they’d have to be cheap–probably launched half-a-dozen at a time. Bob’s got this one right. I’d sign up tomorrow. Unlike synchronous birds, these could also be used for VoIP and gaming. Kill Chinese gaming and they’d have a full-fledged revolt!
Unlike dishes, dipole antennae aren’t directional, so they would be relatively easy to jam. All China need do is transmit jamming signals on that frequency in the high-density areas, and they’ve solved most of the problem without firing a shot. Better still, they could make possession of the appropriate handset a crime, and track down the violators with radio direction finding equipment. The Chinese government has shown no qualms about mass action against its populate when appropriately motivated.
If you’re going to try to help the Chinese in this manner, the link to the Internet needs to be undetectable. I don’t know of any technology that would fit the bill.
I give Bob’s “Google Satellite Internet Service” idea a thumbs down, at least as far as making a difference to China is concerned.
So, where are the predictions? You’re getting conservative, Bob.
“Otherwise, 2010 looks like a good year for Google mainly because Internet advertising will recover somewhat and Google should make some progress in phones, browsers, operating systems, apps, and the cloud in general.”
And “more of the same” from Apple.
I think Bob wants to report next year that this year’s predictions were 100% correct.
I can’t see China giving a damn about Google’s tantrum, so they had better be good to their word.
My predictions: continuing dominance in search financing lots of half-baked ideas. They’re too big and aloof to break moulds now. Wave is a dud.
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I’m not so sure your remarks on Google and China were exactly spot on, Bob – first, I do believe withdrawing from the market would have an impact. It sends a very strong signal about the dangers of doing business in China and the Chinese government will be sensitive to that. I also think Microsoft and Yahoo will have to pause before jumping further in – up to now Google’s ride in China has been fraught anyway, with what amounted at times to state-sanctioned persecution of Google in favour of Baidu.
The pirate satellite internet strikes me as a pipe-dream – if using American-controlled satellite Internet was made illegal, as it would be, only a tiny minority would risk using it. Even if it was legal that would probably be the case. It would definitely send a signal, but I don’t see a move like that changing the game in any real way.
… “The technology exists, Google could finance it, and China couldn’t stop it.”
Yes, the Chinese government COULD stop any satellite system from being used effectively in China, and it wouldn’t necessarily have to resort to ASAT (which are probably for just such an excuse to be tested.)
Satellites are just radio repeaters in space, so all China has to do to render a satellite system ineffective is to jam the uplink (easy) and/or the downlink (harder, but doable).
Not to mention China lodging administrative protests with the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) which coordinates / allocates satellite frequencies, where it’s one country, one vote. This would probably be very effective – no country wants satellite systems to become a wild west of interference – way, way too much depends on satellites. Thus, ITU censure to a Google satellite system operating in China without permission would probably come in very short order.
Well actually Bob, China just might be able to do something about it, or have you forgotten their anti-satellite test of last year. The target was in low Earth orbit admittedly but if you gave them a reason they might just be able to improve on that.
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Google is exiting cause they can’t partition off Chinese data from the rest of the world’s well enough not to release captured data of 3rd parties when the Chinese come calling legally or illegally for data.
1) It would be hugely embarrassing to Google in the West if it was leaked that they don’t just jumble all the data together in aggregations for their big advertising models but the technology they have goes down to individual identifications – but “Google choses not to”.
I doubt Google does the US Census bureau technique of Data swapping introduced in the 70’s and used since the 90’s. Such is actually counter to Google’s core business model.
Most likely through demographics from other sources: telecom, Net, and outright DB purchases from other companies, Google scrapes enough data together to shock the West. You don’t think Google is leasing/sharing demographic DB collections from other companies? – no statistician would believe that! This would become exposed if they were caught up in politco intrigue with China. How many compromised data privacy notices would they have to send? Wired reported 20 large companies were also included in the attack and _Not one_ has been named nor come forward.
2) The Chinese Government is likely now actively reverse engineering Google and will implement its critical elements of association to persons but in a “hidden way.” Google by tactical withdrawing is protecting its IP (database designs, statistical programs, analysis programs ) from further .CN reverse engineering.
3) The next wave of attack has come as predicted. It is no longer the Network, Operating system nor Application as target of attack.The Database and the Statistical Model for it, is now the prize. I don’t know who is working on intra-database and between-database security but they need to begin to be vocal and active in promoting security. I doubt all the tables in Google’s big DB’s have user level security down to each datapoint.
I call it a tactical re-positioning. Once they figure out how to sandbox china’s data and thus the rest of the planet’s then they will return to the market and clobber MicroSoft & Yahoo. This is the interpretation of “review the feasibility of our business operations in China.”
I don’t worry about Cell Phone radio anymore.
Femtocells are coming. CES 2010 started showing them as _consumer goods_.
When I’m truly “out of range” of either cell tower or femtocell is when I ought to have a plan B and bring a real communication device with a real antenna.
If Im in a 2012 california model car which degrades transmissions I hope the local consumer level repeater/femtocell linked to whatever is embedded in the car and connected to a bigger external uplink will push the packets where I need to go.
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Urban Chinese live in flats, private houses are almost unknown in the big cities. As a result, you can’t just stick a satelite receiver on the roof because it’s not your roof.
It’s very not PC to bring up but could it be possible that Google is not earning money in China?
Bob, how about some predictions about the less glamorous like IBM, HP, EMC, Akamai?
Dell, Sun, Cisco?
but the Nexus One is a good phone in my experience.
Does anyone know when the article feeds will be working again?
Firefox keeps telling me that Bob’s feed has failed to load, but all my other feeds load just fine.
Lately, Google isn’t so good with it’s search engine either. I’ve started using AltaVista again to avoid all the false positives I’ve been getting from Google searches.
I expect the words I’m searching for to actually appear in the web pages Google presents. The only way to do that is to preceed the words with ‘+’s.
It’s easier to use AltaVista.
Here’s a business review of Dell but it appears to be written in Engrish:
Dell (NASDAQ:DELL) has underperformed its peer group in the stock market by a wide margin. Dell’s shares are off over 30% over the last two years while the share of Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ) and IBM (NYSE:IBM) have shown impressive gains. The PC industry’s score has been steadily increasing in the American Customer Service Index over the last decade, up from a 71 of 100 rating in 2001 to 75. Dell’s score has dropped from 78 to 75. Dell trail Apple, Toshiba, and HP is many Consumer Reports measurements of laptop computers by screen size. It does somewhat better in the slow-growing desktop business and has abysmal scores in the fastest growing part of the PC industry—netbooks. In the netbook category Consumer Reports ranks Dell behind seven other manufacturers. In Forrester’s recent Customer Experience Index rankings, Dell was behind every other PC maker measured. Dell employees have been through a series of layoffs which included 8,800 people in 2008 and at least another 1,400 last year. Dell fired another group in November.
-24/7 Wall St. (http://247wallst.com/2010/01/05/the-15-most-hated-companies-in-america/)
Here’s a thought: if it turns out that the Google attack exploits were done via unknown holes in, say, Internet Explorer – what are the chances that the holes were deliberately injected by a Microsoft employee at the Chinese government behest?
So my 2010 prediction is that governments around the world will display a sudden interest in switching to open source software that they can independently vet and certify…
BTW, I am just using Microsoft as an example, as if I were the Chinese government this is where I would most certainly have some agents in place… The same could be true of any popular proprietary software company.
Seems unlikely that any MS employee would have access to change Windows. I certainly hope only “trusted” employees would have access to the family jewels.
You don’t need access to the operating system code. Just access to the code of a popular application that isn’t sandboxed by the the operating system. Such as Internet Explorer. Oh, wait. I forgot. IE is part of the operating system :-).
BTW: The German government has just advised IE users to change to a different browser: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/8463516.stm
Bob,
I have been puzzling to make sense of Google’s response to the attacks. Since ignoring China’s censorship rules do not make Google’s networks more secure I can think of only one scenario that fits: The agreement Google has with the Chinese government gives China special access to some information, or exposure to Google’s security apparatus that Google is no longer comfortable–even if that exposure was not linked to the attacks. If that is true Google would be none to eager to give out that detail.
Dave
Arthur C. Clarke wrote a short sci-fi story called ‘I remember Babylon’ which told of a plan to overthrow western democracy by communist propaganda beamed down by satellites. That was about 60 years ago. It would be ironic if he was right, but the overthrowing went the other way around.
Official propaganda can be truth or lies. The current Internet allows everyone to speak so it would take more people telling lies than telling the truth to lead us in the wrong direction. I knew a fellow who came from Communist China who made a wise observation. He said that countries are like growing families in which the young require the authority of their parents but when mature they begin to make their own decisions gradually. In other words an impoverished country may be better off with a benevolent dictator until they are ready to handle more freedom.
> overthrow western democracy by communist propaganda beamed down by satellites
No need for that, university chairs and media companies worked out fine.
[…] – I Cringely – He thinks it will mean nothing to China and open the door for Bing and […]
I think you underestimate the appeal of the nexus one. It is interesting that both Leo Laporte and Woz like it! I am sure there are going to be initial glitches but the platform is winning over many people.
Leo likes everything. Woz attached an old ma Bell hand set to his cell phone.
“…but there were so many IQ points jetting around the conference room at Google that nobody bothered to actually listen they were so much in love with each other.”
Great to see you back on form. More of the same, please!
[…] are a lot of things which need improvement, not least the Nexus One, which is no great shakes. January 13th, 2010 in Internet | tags: […]
“it’s radio is horrible, so bad that I literally gave it back and returned to a clunky G1…”
I have an HTC P3300 smartphone and the radio on this phone sounds worse than what you might get on a phone 1/5th its price. It makes me wonder if a sucky radio afflicts several more HTC smartphones, and if that is indeed the case, I doubt if HTC would have warned google about the radio quality on their google phone
Google has lost it’s way. Is it a marketing company, a hardware company, a software company, a charity or something else? It seems like their search results are degrading. Losing focus is the first step in losing relevance.
informative
Off Topic, but…
In past years the best of Bob’s columns has been where he goes over all of the predictions for the previous year, and scores himself. How did he do?
Have you written one of those yet if so, which one is it?
could it be that the Chinese just wanted google in China long enough to allow their chinese employees to get their hands all over the technology Google uses????
I expect if google leaves that some very similar stuff will start popping up in china
I’m afraid you are quite wrong about the impact of Google leaving China. Had Google stayed, it would have been kept to a distant second (the government will make sure of that — can you name a non-Chinese tech company who has close to anything like the market position it enjoys in the rest of the world?). When Google pulled up stakes, it stirred up the broadest, and the most critical, conversation among Chinese netizens about censorship and the future of the Chinese internet. This would not be happening without Google’s departure as a galvanizing moment. You would be surprised by the depth and breadth of dissatisfaction about government censorship of the internet, often fro people who rarely use Google, all over the Chinese internet. I am convinced this is marks the moment when scales start to fall from the eyes of Chinese internet users.
“Now to China where hackers or spies or who-knows-who have been attacking Google and the search giant is threatening to take its ball and go home, leaving completely the Chinese market. What sense does this make? It makes no sense to me. Google is going to have zero impact on China — zero — by abandoning that market, which Microsoft and Yahoo will gladly fill. so threatening to walk away is simply stupid.”
I have to disagree. I think there are several angles to this move:
1. The Chinese government was (allegedly) hacking into dissidents’ gmail accounts. While this itself has little to do with google.cn per se (I don’t think google offered gmail from the mainland servers), if true, it demonstrates the extremes that Dà Gēgē is willing to go to in order clamp down on freedom. The announcement from GoDaddy about the PRC’s invasive demands around domain registration would seem to confirm this.
2. I imagine many google employees, you know the cream of the crop eggheads with lots of letters after their name, were not particularly happy to be working for a company whose prime directive is to not be evil and whose prime business is to provide access to a global web of information, to be engaging in political censorship on behalf of an authoritarian regime. I bet they weren’t happy with it when Google announced it, and the signs that Google’s presence in the market there weren’t improving the situation just made the cyber attacks the last straw.
3. An unintentional(?) benefit to their actions now may be that one day, perhaps in the distant future, when Chinese citizens actually get to enjoy their freedom along with their Gucci and Prada, they will remember which company took a principled stand. In the meantime, we here lucky enough to already be in the Free World can remember it for them.
I don’t know what’s going on over in China, but the cyber-attack allegations, along with the leaked instructions to their news outlets about the whole issue, indicate that whatever it is, it’s not creeping freedom. We’ve been told that integration China into the world economy will help spread freedom more than isolating them, and that’s probably true. But that doesn’t mean we have to actively collaborate with them on technological means of oppression.
It’s about time a major company put principles before profits. Shame on all the other tech companies who happily offer their products in direct service to oppression.
This is a silly argument. To begin with, the CCP already subsidizes Baidu, the real search market leader in China, to such a ridiculous degree that no Western company can really compete, which is one of the main reasons Google felt comfortable pulling out of that market. The simple fact that you are unaware of the basic market structure of internet search in China throws into question the rest of your wild-eyed assumptions.
As to satellite internet, I think your other readers have done an excellent job of explaining why, exactly, that is not the end-all-be-all freedom-media of the new era. The only addition I would make would be to remind you of Rupert Murdoch and his attempt to become the satellite media provider for the Chinese market in the late 90s, early 00s. The result? After losing hundreds of millions due to Beijing’s interference, he left the market, and it is now dominated by home-grown providers, who they control, that stole his tech with government backing. Why is it so hard to understand that the one and only reason for the CCP’s existence is to retain power, whether it be over information, public policy, or anything else, and that they will not allow any organization which they do not control to share that power? They charge reporters who report on broken roads with felonies, for pete’s sake; you think they’re going to let any foreign, independent company have a dominant market share in any field?
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As predicted, Google didn’t leave China. Google was all threat and no follow up. It was actually hard to imagine they will leave and drop the biggest mobile market in the world…
That was dumb Google, really dumb.
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I think it’s going to be very difficult for Google to do business in China because Chinese government restrictions.
But I understand that Google wants to penetrate the Chinese market because there are millions and millions of Internet users, and dominate that market is what it purports to google.
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This is old news, however google now has released the android as an open source program and I believe they have a good share in the smart phone market. Of course they cannot compare themselves to apple
I agree. 2010 has been a great year for google.
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Microsoft (MSFT) may be a bit behind Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) when it comes to creating a voice-enabled personal assistant for its mobile devices, but it seems the company does have plans to add better speech recognition capabilities to its Bing mobile app in the near future. MSFTKitchen has posted a video demonstration of a new prototype for voice recognition software on Windows Phone devices that’s intended to show how Microsoft has worked to reduce latency and word recognition errors while improving phones’ ability to accurately hear you in crowded, noisy areas..
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