I’m not the biggest fan of Sun Microsystems CEO Jonathan Schwartz. Okay, I am not a fan at all. But I have to give the guy credit for keeping up company morale, because when I polled my Sun contacts recently on why they thought IBM might be interested in buying the company, each thought it was because of his or her division. What charming — if misguided — loyalty. These people still feel good about their company.
Of course they are wrong to do so.
I know that Sun walked away from the deal, by the way. I’m not THAT out of touch with the world. I just think that understanding the Sun mindset might help explain that bonehead move.
So here’s the result of my unscientific sampling of a too small group with the question being “Why would IBM want Sun?” Remember these answers came from inside Sun, itself. Notice nobody said “servers”:
1) StorageTek. There’s a big market in z/OS storage still and Sun has
been stepping on their nether regions with it ever since they bought
STK. As depressed as Sun’s price has been, I can imagine (with no
numbers to back it) that getting that track back into competition with
the big storage guys could be appealing.
2) Solaris. There are several ways that Solaris really is the best
UNIX derivative around, and AIX just doesn’t have all that big a share
of the market. Open source seems to be winning in general in that
world. AIX shares code with some pieces of AS/400 though, so IBM
really doesn’t want to open the source to AIX. AIX doesn’t do intel
well. Solaris in a nevada-plus version could replace AIX, with Andrew
support added.
3) Sun Labs and Java. Sun is better at looking *cool* than IBM, IBM
wants to buy that. Even further, IBM has made a huge investment in Java that has paid-off in enterprise application success. Then Big Blue aoke and realized its future in this market was totally cpongtrolled by Sun – a company IBM viewed as being, at best, adolescent. IBM wants to control its Java destiny.
4) R&D in general. For all its failings, Sun has continued to spend about $3 billion per year on R&D, which is nearly the adjusted price IBM would be paying. There has to be some cool stuff in there.
5) Fishworks/Amber Road, Mike Shapiro’s storage appliance. This system is clever but not THAT clever.
6) Services. Hardly. Not even close.
Schwartz and Sun have a pretty high opinion of themselves despite years of losses. So they walked away from IBM’s last offer. But don’t expect them to stay away for long. There simply isn’t another buyer for the whole thing and Sun doesn’t have the patience to cut itself into pieces.
And the real price IBM will be paying is at least $2 billion less than you read in the newspaper, because Sun – like a lot of tech companies – has profits stashed overseas that it has been unable to bring back.
IBM knows how to play that game, too.
I was just thinking the other day about who this years Yahoo will be. Looks like Sun are the early contender.
Might be a nice annual fixture of the tech world if we get a will they won’t they merger story to keep us entertained!
Bob,
dont know that Solaris x86 is that good. So few hardware drivers, unlike Linux. *BSD.
Granted Solaris runs applications about 30% faster than Linux
Solaris ZFS may be better than the continuing bugs in JFS2.
AIX is the easiest unix to administer, despite being so “non-standard”.
Solaris is getting there, but a long way to go still.
However, have you had a bad week? Spelling in article above has a dud line
Then Big Blue aoke and realized its future in this market was totally cpongtrolled by
Uh ?
IBM has a proven track record of buying up innovative companies, putting them in a meat grinder, off shoring all they can, and 2 years down the road spitting out the remains.
Sun employees should find work elsewhere before IBM does what they do so well.
Ask former employees of Lotus, PWC, GE computer services, and AT&T
Small correction: AIX shares parts of its code base with OS/400 , since renamed twice to i5/OS then IBM i.
Everyone still calls it OS/500 though.
I know it was on Slashdot last night, but what about Oracle? They’ve got the cash, the commitment to Java, the need for awesome storage tech, and while they’ve been branding their own linux variant that they want all their databases to run on, why not switch it up to an enterprise-class OS that they actually own?
And a third kewpie doll. I hope we don’t run out.
[…] https://www.cringely.com/2009/04/the-sun-also-sets/ […]
I actually think if Microsoft was smart they’d buy Sun. There would still be plenty of competition with IBM, Oracle, SAP, PHP, etc to get it past regulators.
-James
Microsoft would only be interested in buying a very small part of Sun, if any, It would be stupid for Redmond to buy the whole shebang. Imagine the outcome of such a takeover, though. It would terrify the entire open source world if Microsoft controlled certain Sun projects and collaborations, it would be akin to the Roman takeover of the Levant – lots of lives lost, numbers of defections to the other side, people going along to keep the peace and then one final terrible bloodbath and a long drawn out diaspora. But who or what would be Jesus?
Problem is that Sun controls StarOffice and provides a lot of support (development, etc.) for OpenOffice. That would be a big problem for Microsoft as it would almost certainly mean they wouldn’t be able to take over all of Sun – since Star Office (especially) and OpenOffice directly compete with Microsoft Office – and Microsoft wouldn’t be able to sweep them under the rug either.
Then add to it that Sun is the primary controller of Java – which directly competes with Microsoft’s .Net suite. Again, can’t sweep that under the rug either.
Don’t forget about MySQL, which Sun recently bought. Directly competes with Microsoft SQL Server. No go.
Solaris/OpenSolaris might not be such a problem. It’s market share is limited to certain markets where it is the key player, but in general is shrinking (losing to Linux). So Microsoft could certainly write it off and just maintain it for those niche markets.
That’s probably 1/3rd of the tech Sun provides. Granted there’s a lot of hardware stuff, and the Sparc fabrications too – but that’s not really stuff Microsoft is interested in – it would put them at odds with too many OEMs that help them maintain their monopoly in the desktop space; and the hardware side of Sun is really the majority of it and the good part.
So no – there isn’t really anything interesting in Sun for Microsoft. Though I wouldn’t put it past Microsoft to give them some money to help them along if it was needed – namely to preserve competition.
So are you saying they’re just buying it for the servers or no? Why do you think they’re buying it? I think it’s just aggregating legacy hardware businesses.
What about Apple? Sun’s tech is strong in the places Apple is weak. Apple are already looking at ZFS (in fact that looks like a shoe in, and jives well with “Time Machine”. Mac OS X’s Kernel has long been criticised for being slow – Solaris’s Kernel would be a great replacement. Sun’s “big iron” would move Apple’s “also ran” server business into an actual server business.
Much of Apple’s infrastructure runs on Java (WebObjects) and controlling Java and having control of application server software would be a good fit.
What the heck Apple would do with SPARC is a good question, I can’t imagine right now, but it’s far from a dud (I’d not expect to see SPARC based Macs though). Back in the day Sun and NeXT collaborated on OpenStep (the API, Cocoa is a modernised version of that, these days we’d call it a framework) and Sun have lots of applications locked away in their basement – Apple might like to dust those off.
If there is one company that can do “cool” it’s Apple, it would mean the end of Sun as a brand (just as the acquisition of NeXT was the end of that brand) but much of the technology would be a great fit, mostly as there is technical synergy without much business crossover. We’d also see some honkin’ big Xserves. It would also tickle Jobs to take over McNealy’s company.
This is clearly pipe smoke.
In early 1996 or 1997 Sun almost bought Apple. Apple exec’s screwed up the deal, this allowed Steve and NeXT to take over Apple. Apple needs Sun to move forward. Most important for the enterprise will be how Apple will fixed that industry. Today’s enterprise companies sell you parts and then tell you that to make their parts work you need to hire their experts. Their experts are far from that and you need up spending tons of good money and getting little in return. I know because I see it everyday at work (we use IBM/Oracle/Microsoft/CA/HP/Cisco and the list goes on). Pure crap. Apple can make the enterprise work just like their iPods/iPhone/Mac’s. This would force the industry to clean up their act and truly move forward. Of course, Apple will never buy Sun or really get into the enterprise, so my suggestion is a pipe dream.
Apple doesn’t need Sun Microsystems. Apple buying Sun is such a bonehead move, it would scare (Apple) shareholders away fast. Apple, like Microsoft, would only be slightly interested in one or two parts of Sun, and it won’t debase its own brand by buying up the whole shebang.
In 1997 and earlier, Apple was a different company than it is now. An Apple-Sun merger (or Sun subsuming Apple) would have been a more pragmatic move. So get into the now brother. Apple doesn’t need Sun. It’s Sun that needs …anybody.
I agree that Apple would not buy Sun. Apple wants to cherry pick the best or most compatible tech and I’d love to see ZFS implemented as the replacement to HFS+. IBM is clearly a much better fit with similar product offerings from each company between the two they could come up with a best of breed amongst the areas that they overlap. I also trust IBM to be more forthcoming about open source than I ever would with Apple, IBM, Oracle etc. M$ and Oracle would kill off MySQL faster than you can say “go” and M$ would also go one further and kill off Java in favor of .Net. Sun needs to pull it’s head out of the sand and not pull a Yahoo.
Sun is the classic example of what’s wrong with the American corporate model. Specifically, the lack of a “sunset” provision.
In Sun’s case, they’ve clearly outlived their usefulness and need to be closed down in an orderly manner, with various parts sold off, unused/unwanted technologies open-sourced, and the stockholders paid out.
This would also release a pool of talented engineers and developers back into the market to be available for the next generation of startups, not unlike what happened after Netscape imploded.
Exactly. Corporations, like everything else, should have a beginning, middle, and end. Or at least the option. Sun was a star in its day, no pun intended, but blade servers are a commodity tech that’s withering. A sunset process would boost share price as investors started doing the math on a proper fire sale.
If Steve Jobs weren’t on his deathbed, he’s probably start rumors of a Sun takeover just to generate 100 articles dutifully citing the fact that 13 years ago the roles were reversed, and how the tide has turned (due to Jobs, implicitly).
All this makes me even more satisfied with my decision to leave Sun last Fall…
Done right, I think there is the potential to make a lot of money buying Sun and breaking it up. Fujitsu may want the SPARC business. Apple might buy Java and Solaris, maybe StarOffice, IBM could buy Storage, Oracle could buy MySQL, and Cisco could buy the switches. The cash and IP alone is probably worth may more than the purchase price. Add in the Real Estate value (Google wanted the Santa Clara campus at one time) and someone could do very well.
Two reasons to buy Sun:
– take control of java, to do to it what IBM did to COBOL; and have done so already to a degree
– replace all that expensive DB2 research and development with MySql; most DB2 sites only use it as a sql parser anyway, and at that task MySql is sufficient
MySQL is a legal tinderbox IBM would want to handle with a thousand lawyer pole
Hmmm. IBM is rather good at that part. Just ask SCO/M$. The goal would not be to curtail MySql as GPL software, but to create a fork (or perhaps not even) and call it DB2. They could do that now, of course, but it would be an easier tactic if they owned what is now Sun.
Background:
http://blogs.systeminetwork.com/isnblogs/productlines/2009/03/ibm_db2_storage_engine_for_mys.html
In other words, IBM has been on its way for sometime. The iSeries started life as System/38, with an “integrated” (relational, sort of) database. I was always puzzled why IBM chose this machine to be the first to use MySql. Still am, for that matter.
If IBM bought Sun, they would have to get rid of MySQL in a New York minute. The legal liabilities that come with MySQL are too great. If a buyout would happen the wise thing would be for Sun to spin off MySQL first, before merging with IBM.
“Then Big Blue aoke and realized its future in this market was totally cpongtrolled by Sun”
I’ve got two words underlined in red from the above sentence. Copy edit much?
[…] Cringely rightly reckons Sun will sell itself cheap/ly: https://www.cringely.com/2009/04/… […]
The sun has been setting on America for sometime, now we get to watch the middle class grow by the 10’s of millions in developing countries like China and India, while our middle class shrinks and becomes indistinguishable from the working class poor.
http://measureofamerica.org
http://mylifesucks.org
Don’t you think it’s time we do something?
Yes. We MUST. The solution is replacing “Free” trade by “Fair” trade– appropriate tariffs to make up for all the toxic JUNK china sells us because we suckers look too much at the price tag and too little at the ultimate cost.
Yes, I think it’s time we stop posting irrelevant messages in tech blog forums. :>
Stop worrying about the Chinese and Indians. The Chinese are facing a massive manufacturing recession, and the Indians — have you been there recently? Sure, their 6% middle class is an outsourcing labor beast, but the poor 95% are still waiting for schools,roads, running water, or any other tangible result of a century of free and fair elections. The US, for all its troubles, still leads the world in innovation. I was just in China and I had to clear about 50megs of bad Chinese software from my dad’s PC. They can’t even write a working antivirus program.
But agreed, we need to stop buying junk, no matter where it’s made.
Sun should sell itself to Apple at a discount. Apple could use ownership of ZFS; MySQL; and JAVA (although XCode will ultimately make JAVA obsolete). Also, Sun continues to have some fantastic talent– outside of Apple, maybe the best talent in the industry, counting only those willing to work for an actual company (as opposed to open source fanatics).
Sun-Apple … yes https://www.sunrype.ca/
There is going to be a boardroom coup over this, and this time, the shareholders may win, else the company will continue to downward spiral like a cancer patient who couldn’t face reality and waited too long. Apple could buy some Sun technology (i.e., ZFS) and maybe some Sun talent, but it’s not worth depleting the cash tank for an entire company. The IBM deal is best the shareholders are ever going to get.
Bob has been puffing on his crack pipe again.
No buyers for Sun? *cough* Oracle! *cough* Apple! *cough* Jeez, I could go on and on and on until my lungs are covering the keyboard. No thanks.
God Bob, do you realize how much you embarrass yourself in these posts?
As a technology pundit, you suck. But as an entertainer, along the lines of somethingawful.com, you are a must read!
Keep up the good work, buddy. Keep us laughing.
And the young man in the propeller hat wins the kewpie doll
Apple does have a long term plan for its Xserve and it sure as hell isn’t Sun technology. If it was, we wouldn’t be hearing about this dance with IBM right now, it would have been sprung at the shareholder meeting earlier this year. Such things take time to percolate, foment, etc., before they’re made public.
Meanwhile, did anybody notice that WSJ article about Steve Jobs still running the show … please! That had to be the worst invocation of The Reality Distortion Field ever. Great way to undermine the transition team while trying to assuage shareholders fears.
Well lookey here. In my inbox today is a listing for a MySql installer for IBM, Boston. I guess that office didn’t get the e-mail; they’re off and running.
Audio?
From a pure field IT perspective, Oracle makes the most sense. Back in the day Oracle on Sun ran the back-end of most state and fed government agencies. Gradually cost and staffing gave Microsoft the competitive edge and lots of places I know had or are transitioning out of their old Sun servers. Even though Oracle ran on Windows too, once they go to Windows 2XK it’s IIS+SQL Sever all together. Solaris owned by Oracle may not cut down the total cost much but bundled with a decent and centralized support and maintenance contract it might be worth it to some IT shops to refresh some Solaris server. It’s important to IBM too. I haven’t heard of serious stories where Windows back-end gets converted to Intel-LAMP/Java.
Another kewpie doll to the man in the yellow bow tie
Hi Bob;
Are you going to do a follow up now that the Oracle acquisition of Sun has been announced?
Bob-
Can you please give your opinion of how Java will fare with the Oracle+Sun situation? Or is it mute, and the whole world shifted and going PHP, Ruby, ASP.NET/Ajax
I’m studying for SCJP-065 certification and would like to know if Java will emerge invigorated or weaker.
Obviously, with my investment of time and effort, I’d like to see it part of a new, stronger language. The package of “Oracle/Solaris/Java” vs. “SQLServer/IIS/.NET” seems to be the line in the sand.
I realize Sun doesn’t have real “control” over Java, but it has large influence and namesake.
Also, will NetBeans be given new focus to be the defacto IDE (as opposed to Eclipse)? I feel a neater NetBeans could be the response to MS.NET’s drag-drop and simpler design idioms.
I think this is good for Java (as opposed to the IBM+Sun deal).
Thank you.
oops…”mute” —> “moot”
[…] and someone else (Cisco perhaps?) ended up with the hardware business. In fact, there was even talk of an Apple angle for the storage business given the ZFS tie-in in Snow Leapord. I can see a good […]
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Hi,
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