Sorry for again having taken too long to return to work. Or in this case the better term might be to recover. Eye surgery on November 2nd did not go well so I am still blind. In fact blinder than ever. We’ll try again on November 27th after I’m fully recovered from a drug side effect that nearly killed me. But I’m not dead yet!
My last column was about the recent tipping point signifying that cloud computing is guaranteed to replace personal computing over the next three years. This column is about the slugfest to determine what company’s public cloud is most likely to prevail. I reckon it is Amazon’s and I’ll go further to claim that Amazon will shortly be the new Microsoft.
What I mean by The New Microsoft is that Amazon is starting to act a lot like the old Microsoft of the 1990s. You remember — the Bad Microsoft.
Microsoft in the Bill Gates era was truly full of itself, pushing competitors around, crushing enemies and occasionally breaking the law as a bevy of anti-trust settlements show. Microsoft was the second most valuable company on Earth after ExxonMobil and seemed to feel it could get away with anything. When I wrote something that displeased them, they’d summon me to Redmond for reeducation. Fortunately I didn’t give a shit — then or now — making me completely resistant to the technique.
Today in the public cloud space Amazon is behaving much like Microsoft did in the 90s. They are hugely dominant with more than 70 percent of the cloud market and growing. According to Gartner Amazon Web Services (AWS) will soon have 80 percent of the public cloud market.
Understand there are only three players in the public cloud that matter at all — Amazon, Google and Microsoft. Forget about companies like IBM and Oracle because their market share is meaningless. Larry Ellison can talk about having lower cloud prices, but if he cannot support at least a million virtual seats (he can’t) his pricing doesn’t matter.
All three of the big public cloud companies are growing fast but Amazon is growing faster. This year AWS will spend $10 billion expanding. Microsoft and Google are spending billions, too, but not that many billions. Amazon may always be bigger.
And Amazon may always be faster, too. Part of the reason AWS is gaining market share is because Microsoft’s Azure doesn’t boot virtual machines quite as fast. Specifically it can take over a minute for storage to come on-line and in the public cloud world a minute to access your Dropbox is 40 seconds too long.
This too shall pass, but Microsoft will still be smaller. That’s why Redmond has staked out the Enterprise cloud market — alas, the segment most sensitive to such slow boot times.
But what about Google? They are definitely in the hunt and competitive in terms of performance, which is why Salesforce — which sees itself as eventually becoming part of Microsoft — instead chose to balance AWS recently by allying also with Google. But beyond this one deal it is hard to see Google making cloud inroads. The problem is that Google’s biggest cloud customer by far is, well, Google itself, and that customer is so demanding that the commercial cloud division hasn’t been able to get its act together. This can change but I’ll guarantee that Google as a cloud customer won’t become any less demanding, so it may not change at all.
AWS supports most startups as well as all 17 US intelligence agencies — taking 350,000 PCs out of places like the CIA, Thank Edward Snowden for that one. They are enjoying great success, though AWS partners aren’t enjoying themselves quite as much. Put simply, AWS is a pain to deal with if you are a customer big enough to be in personal communication and not just a credit card number. This, too, is like the old Microsoft.
Tech companies behave this way because most employees are young and haven’t worked anywhere else and because the behavior reflects the character of the founder. If the boss tells you to beat up customers and partners and it’s your first job out of college, then you beat up customers and partners because that’s the only world you know.
At Microsoft this approach was driven by Bill Gates’s belief that dominance could be lost in a single product cycle leaving no room for playing nice. At Amazon, Jeff Bezos is a believer in moving fast, making quick decisions and never looking back. The market has long rewarded this audacity so Amazon will continue to play hard until — like Microsoft in the 90s — they are punished for it.
With such dominant market share in at least two industries (cloud and retailing) and big ambitions for at least two more (video entertainment and shipping) Amazon is making itself a very large target. And now that they are conducting experiments in predatory cloud pricing with conspicuous loss leaders in sectors where competition is real, one would think that would get the attention of the Federal Trade Commission and Department of Justice.
Some might think, though, that the laissez faire Trump Administration will look the other way, but I wouldn’t bet on that as long as Jeff Bezos owns the Washington Post.
Hey — could you update the Mineserver Kickstarter and let us know if either 1) You’re never getting it or 2) I’m working on it, but I’m blind and can’t see when you’ll get them.
I hope you get better soon.
Why are some people such fucking assholes?
Like Microsoft in the 90s and Amazon (perhaps) now, I think Cringely got too full of himself. A few successes — whether deserved or not — makes him think he can dick around is backers with impunity.
I notice a user named “Sinasohn” spends an awful lot of time editing Bobs Wikipedia page…
Do you honestly have nothing better to do Roger?
@Mike Bellew How much time do you think it takes to edit a wiki page? Definitely less time than it would take Bob to communicate to his backers and end this war (which also could be done pretty quickly).
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The people have a right to know that Cringely is not all rainbows and unicorns like most of his followers believe him to be. He used to be a big deal and has spent the last few years riding that wave into the ground. Roger is simply pointing these details out for the less informed.
Happy you didn’t die – we’re not done tormenting you yet. Mwa ha ha!
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(In all seriousness, rest up and get better)
Saying Amazon is doing so well that it will eventually be doing bad seems like a wasted article/prediction. All empires that grow too large to sustain eventually fall, even before Microsoft. You haven’t really added anything of value by stating this.
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Go rest up and stop posting just to fill our inboxes trying to stay active. We come here to learn something valuable, not what history books have been teaching us since we were in grade school. You’re better than this (or at least you used to be. I’m not as sure lately…).
Dayem! Sorry to hear the latest in your health status. But still no boils…yet? 😉
After my dad’s cataract surgery his comment was, “Now my eyesight is so good I can almost see around the corner!” Here is hoping the next attempt at sight repair goes better and you have the same experience as my dad.
No boils because he still hasn’t confirmed that his home truly burned down our not. Lots of gray area with Bob lately and people are starting to get suspect. He conveniently speaks in vague sentences without follow-up and is playing the sympathy card hard lately. While my thoughts are with him during this difficult time, if he doesn’t pace himself properly he’ll become the boy who cried wolf and it will fall on deaf ears. GL with the recovery, Bob, here’s hoping you get back to your former self and your life gets back on track.
Good news: it would appear that Bob’s house did not burn. Look up Bob’s real name, then find his street address in the white pages and compare its map with the statewide fire map at https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1TOEFA857tOVxtewW1DH6neG1Sm0
The flames did not come within a mile of that address.
sorry you went all-in for complications, really should back down a bit when doctors are hovering over you. heal up and prosper, or something like that. I see some folks are working their first jobs, too, and learning to post. guys, hey… you’re in a sick man’s “house” and pouring drinks on the rented couch in the temporary home. lurk a while first. I’m getting annoyed.
He posted signs up all over town telling us to come over to his house to hang out, then we find out he’s sick and not feeling well and you are upset that we’re annoyed we came to his house party? Why is he throwing house parties if he’s not feeling well?
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Bob – go back to bed, get better, and then we’ll hang out. You’re wasting everyone’s time posting in this state and not addressing any of the concerns people have been bringing up for months at this point! This whole article and subsequent comments are just time no one will get back with nothing learned.
heh, the signs look like they were painted by an 11-year old.
A Cringely in my inbox is the bright spot of the day. I could use more. Saw something on W. Buffet dropping IBM?
yep, it’s not his first move out, nor his first move in. they had a little bounce up in the past week, and hey, buy high and sell higher. that’s his pattern for top stocks.
Bob,
Terribly sorry to read that your cataract surgery failed you, perhaps you should seek out a different doctor since that’s normally a rather straightforward and relatively risk free procedure. Best wishes going forward!
Feels like this is the time when the world could use some big-picture analysis from a guy who has probably written about it all before. We’re starting to feel the first seismic rumbles about anti-trust, which is likely to have some extremely strange bedfellows both for and against actions relating to some of these giants.
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Get well soon Bob —
I clicked on your “According to Gartner” link, and that article shows Amazon at 44% market share not 70%. And nowhere in that article could I find a projection to 80% in the future. So Bob, where are you getting those numbers?
Re: “it can take over a minute for storage to come on-line and in the public cloud world a minute to access your Dropbox is 40 seconds too long.” Compared to the local-storage-on-local-pc alternative, It’s about 59+ seconds too long. Once my pc is booted up, it stays that way for most of the day, so accessing a local text file is nearly instantaneous, in 1998 it was instantaneous even on a much slower machine, since Windows 9x was lean and mean. Even now, with Windows 10, I use an email program like the original Outlook Express, also set to use POP3, since I want to read and search my emails now, not when some cloud provider gets around to finding and downloading them.
Yes! I’m a small guy and will stay local on my desktop. I want access always to what I have.
There are two sides to the Amazon cloud:
1) the infrastructure as a service side, i.e. rent-a-server (EC2), rent-a-disk (S3 and EBS)
2) the platform-as-a-service side, with apps and services consumed using APIs but where they take care of all the underlying servers and management: Redshift, SQS, Kinesis, DynamoDB, Lambda, RDS, Athena and so on.
The former is a commodity and getting more so, and tools like Kubernetes will basically make switching from one cloud IaaS provider to another almost as simple as flipping a switch. They don’t have market power with customers there, only with Intel and the disk makers.
The latter is where they have the opportunity to create lock-in and switching costs, and they have been doing a good job of innovating (although I’d say Google’s PaaS offerings like BigQuery are better, if not as broad).
The question is whether customers will choose the convenience of the lock-in solution or opt for open-source alternatives packaged for Kubernetes. I think you are spot-on: inexperienced startups who have not yet been bitten by vendor lock-in are the ones most likely to strike that Faustian bargain.
One of the local hospitals outsourced its entire IT operation to a third party. Apparently they didn’t read their contract closely. After a few stout price increases, they decided to move their IT back in-house. At which point the contractor pointed out the clause in the contract that said all the data now belonged to them.
The levels of fail involved before that contract was signed boggle the mind.
“I thought you read the contract!?”
“I thought YOU read it!”
“Didn’t we run this past the lawyers?”
“Do they know anything about IT?”
“Who can we blame for this?”
The legal infighting dragged on for years…
Giod luck on the 27th
I know that is disappointing news on the first go around, Mark. But I really think they will be able to fix this thing. You are in our thoughts. Hang in there , brother.
[…] by /u/sidcool1234 [link] […]
[…] Article URL: https://www.cringely.com/2017/11/17/15468/ […]
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The cloud does not replace PCs. It may allow you to get by with a thinner PC, but you still need one, at least if you do any kind of knowledge work.
You don’t need a PC, just a tablet with a bluetooth keyboard, or maybe a chromebook if you’re an old fashioned conservative. Still, that’s what?, $300 verses $1300?
I wonder which will be cheapest.
You don’t need a piano, if you can’t play.
Good luck with your recovery.
Yeah, except the analogy breaks down over customers, because whereas Microsoft did what they pleased to please themselves, Amazon does what it pleases to make it better for the customer. Welcome dear writer to 21st century
@Timothy Holmes Cringely won’t understand what you mean because everything he does is to please himself and he has been ignoring his customers for years. He is the embodiment of Microsoft in the form of a man and could never hope to understand Amazon’s model of considering the customer and their needs/wants.
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*bzzt* DOES.NOT.COM-PUTE! *bzzt*
Totally agree!
Just got a notice that my Amazon drive (which I use for backup purposes) cost will go up from $60/year (for unlimited) to $499/year (per TB, based on my current usage).
We’re talking more than an 8x price increase! And I’ve been with them for less than a year.
Re: “Totally agree”, at first I wondered with what you were agreeing, until I noticed the title of the article. As far as pricing goes, Amazon is not known for giving stuff away, basing their pricing on market forces, including the razor & blade analogy. I think one reason Microsoft became dominant is because they underpriced the competition, while continuing to make improvements, a customer centric approach. Once you buy a PC with Windows, you never, at any time, had to buy any other software. The software Microsoft includes plus the free stuff available on the web, can be adequate for many people. The reason some software and cloud services are expensive, is that businesses are already spending $100K on each employee, so they’re more than willing to make them as productive as possible through fancy, business-oriented, software, an unnecessary luxury for non-business purposes.
Ron:
You said “Once you buy a PC with Windows, you never, at any time, had to buy any other software.” In the corporate world this is SIMPLY NOT TRUE.
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Any Windows PC connecting to, say, an MS database server or Powerpoint or any other MS network resource meant that the business paid MS $5 per PC per year (in my day) just for connecting….no software, no support, absolutely nothing at all for the connection — except that the business had at some time or other agreed that they would pay for “Client Licences”.
*
Your comment is likely untrue even for retail customers of MS. For example MS Office was (is) scarcely “free”.
Of course you’re right about “corporations” which I included in my last sentence, using the term “business”. I’d even venture to say that most skilled professionals require specialized, expensive, software for maximum productivity. But many people can get by with free alternatives, like Open Office or Google’s products or even Microsoft Office on the web: https://products.office.com/en-us/office-online/documents-spreadsheets-presentations-office-online. Mary Jo Foley is famous for saying that all she cares about, when hearing about a new computer, is whether it has Notepad.
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Sorry Bob, this time I can’t agree….there’s a main fallacy in your article that shoots its entire premise down the tubes:
“…my last column was about the recent tipping point signifying that cloud computing is guaranteed to replace personal computing over the next three years.”
Wrong, Wrong, Wrong….This is just not gonna happen, and certainly not in three years. Am not gonna re-debate this point now, but Bob please go re-read the comments/responses to that previous column of yours for many intelligent and persuasive arguments…..written by YOUR intelligent, persuasive and (most of all) industry experienced readers….as to why most of us feel there is no way in heck that “cloud computing will replace personal computing” in three years. That’s like saying that autonomous vehicles are gonna replace all drivers in three years. Won’t happen in three years and probably not a hundred years.
Servers and enterprise business and commerce processing? Sure, that’ll go to the cloud but heck, that’s not much different than the time-share mainframes that ran the business world’s processing 30 years ago. But not personal computing, IMO.
I signed up with Amazon years ago then changed my mind. When I tried to delete my account I had to jump through hoops and get their permission! I wasn’t impressed and have generally avoided them ever since.
Summoned to Redmond… ol’ school? Maybe they’ll send a drone after us…
https://youtu.be/9CO6M2HsoIA ( re: Slaughterbots: a very well done professor’s warning about militarizing drones – going viral )
Best of luck with your next eye surgery and recovery!
This reminds me of IBM when I went to work for them straight out of college in 1961. Sorry to hear about your vision and hoping for a positive result on your next surgery.
There’s a big difference between now and the 90’s. Microsoft’s dominance was achieved because of the conjunction of a number of factors. These included the collapse of the Soviet Union and the bursting of the Japanese economic “miracle”, soon to be followed by the East Asian financial crisis. This allowed the US to become not just the lone military superpower but also largely the unrivaled economic superpower, dominant in both consumer and heavy industry. The US military and economic dominance gave Microsoft the boost it needed to dominate the emerging Web and visual computing market. Microsoft was, if not the biggest, the most agile of the IT companies, and so was able to sell its products unrivalled to the whole world. Nowadays, governments won’t allow a Microsoft to dominate an essential information technology industry such as cloud computing, especially in the light of the Edward Snowden revelations. Given the weaponization of the economy, Amazon, just like Facebook and Google, will likely miss out on markets that are politically at odds with US foreign policy. Their governments will certainly not want to be at the mercy of another state.
Best of luck, Bob; it is unfortunate that luck seems so very important in medical outcomes. I can expect a big series of articles on this.
I hope they are as good as this one.
Other stuff related to this:
1) Amazon just took over anime when nobody was looking. The two best anime of the summer were put behind an Amazon pay wall.
2) they are increasing their other media presence.
3) Drones. Did microsoft ever do anything that scarey? I lived through the bad era and certainly some of the EULA’s were indeed scarey. But I don’t think they were THIS scarey.
4) They Bought the F’ing Washington Post.
Microsoft is looking positively pink, soft, and fluffy.
[…] Amazon is Becoming the New Microsoft (I) […]
[…] Amazon is Becoming the New Microsoft I, Cringely (CL). “Tech companies behave this way because most employees are young and haven’t worked anywhere else and because the behavior reflects the character of the founder. If the boss tells you to beat up customers and partners and it’s your first job out of college, then you beat up customers and partners because that’s the only world you know.” […]
[…] Amazon devient le nouveau Microsoft I, Cringely (CL). "Les entreprises de technologie se comportent de cette façon parce que la plupart des employés sont jeunes et n'ont pas travaillé ailleurs et parce que le comportement reflète le caractère du fondateur. Si le patron vous dit de battre des clients et des partenaires et que c'est votre premier emploi à l'université, vous battez des clients et des partenaires parce que c'est le seul monde que vous connaissez. " […]
I’m not a fan of monopoly/oligopoly, but the problems with monopoly and oligopoly are much like the problems with dictatorships: when the dictators are good, people are happy. When the dictators are bad…
Amazon has better products both for cloud and for retail.
As noted above, Amazon cloud is simply larger scale and more reactive than anyone else’s. That, more than anything else, is what allows them to continue to grow faster than even well funded competitors.
Equally, Amazon’s retail operations have amazing customer service.
Their pricing isn’t the best, but their experience certainly is. I just had a customer service issue resolved literally in 12 minutes. Their deployment of convenience store/student union/apartment complex pickup and drop boxes is also a good example of innovative thinking.
The problem, of course, is that the ugly parts of Amazon are hidden.
In cloud – the mass dependency on AWS means any form of AWS screwup affects half of the entire internet – as the Mirai/DynDNS attack showed as well as the periodic “fat finger”.
In retail – the hollowing out of the American economy, already severely damaged by Wal-Mart – continues to drive down incomes and spending ability both.
Ultimately both AWS and Amazon retail are a function of the 1%: the startups spending other people’s money ramping up money losing businesses to be made up at volume, the startup workers cocooned by Amazon, food delivery, private buses and free workplace food and other perks from the slowly deteriorating society around them.
HQ2 is about taking on Big Basket, and Amazon is pulling out all the stops
https://www.lulu.com/shop/rainbow-arms/the-unweaving-of-big-basket-amazons-hq2-corporate-manifesto/ebook/product-23417795.html
Hope your eyesight and health are better soon
I hope everything worked out alright with you and your health. We need you continuing to provide great content. Thanks and get well.
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