Steve Ballmer has always been nice to me. I can’t say we have much of a relationship, but the half dozen times I have interviewed him have always gone well and he tries to please, which I appreciate. But (there’s always a but, isn’t there?) Ballmer has failed at Microsoft and I believe 2012 will see him replaced as Redmond’s CEO.
During Ballmer’s term Microsoft’s stock has gone nowhere and it lost to Apple its position as America’s most valuable technology company. While the company is wildly profitable and will remain so for years to come, those profits still come, for the most part, from two stalwart products from the 1990s — Windows and Office — both of which will fade as the mobile conversion proceeds.
Very little else has worked for Microsoft. I know, I know there are 50 million xBox game systems out there and hundreds of millions of games have been sold, but how much money did Microsoft actually make on all that hardware? The company would be in a better position today, frankly, had it simply shut down everything but Windows and Office.
Ballmer tried and failed and it is long past being time for him to go. Unfortunately most of the internal candidates who might logically have succeeded him are no longer with the company. And it is my belief that once you leave Microsoft you don’t come back.
Besides, Ballmer probably doesn’t want to give up the job.
But it’s time, Steve. You know it’s time.
Now we’ve reached the part of the show where I tell you who I believe will be the new Microsoft CEO. I could have put it in the headline above but I wanted you to keep an open mind at least this far. Because there’s a cynical cadre of readers who apparently come here mainly to get angry and feel superior and those readers are about to accuse me for the second or third time this week of having jumped the shark.
I think the next CEO of Microsoft will be Eric Schmidt, who happens at the moment to be chairman of Google.
For something this crazy to happen it has to work for both parties and I think this does, so please read to the end.
Schmidt is, at this point, a billionaire drone at Google. Larry Page is back firmly in control and there is little for Schmidt to do but go around the world hinting at new products. Not only that, Page is pointedly dismantling the organization Schmidt built, seeing it as inefficient.
It is no longer Eric Schmidt’s Google.
I’ll get back to Schmidt’s motivations in a moment, but now let’s look at why Microsoft might do this. It’s a tactical move for one thing and Microsoft thrills to tactical moves. Google has been identified as Microsoft’s top enemy and Schmidt certainly knows Google. Apple is a big enemy, too, and Schmidt knows that company from his several years on the Apple board.
If Microsoft wants to send Wall Street and the technology market a clear signal that something has changed, hiring Eric Schmidt would be that signal.
And for his part I think Schmidt would do pretty well at Microsoft. It’s a very techie company that presently lacks technical leadership and is adrift as a result. It lacks the cultural problems Schmidt faced at Novell and the cult-of-personality problems at Google, where Schmidt had too much of a free hand with the result being the dysfunctional culture Larry Page is currently dismantling.
More than anything else, though, sometimes just firing the manager can turn a team around. In this instance I am referring to Ballmer.
Now back to why Schmidt would want to even do it. For one thing he can prove Larry Page was wrong. For another — and this is vitally important — this is about the only way Schmidt can sell his Google stock, which may be not far from a historic high. As CEO of Microsoft there’s no onus against selling that stock or putting it in a foundation which then sells it, or maybe even selling it to Microsoft.
Call me crazy but that’s how I see it. Who would you choose?
Very intriguing concept. My problem with Eric is that there seems to be an almost apologist sense in talking about his failures. “It was good, except for ….”
That said, it would be extremely interesting to see what MS does without Ballmer.
Exactly, Schmidt is not much different than Ballmer in the sense that he ran a company with a money printing machine in the back room. It’s easy to take phony risks and rationalize bad decisions and screw ups when there is no chance the failures will sink the company. The Android rollout has been a colossal series of mistakes, and Schmidt has to bear responsibility for not keeping the geeks in check and letting the legal situation spiral out of control.
Ballmer needs to go, but the MSFT board is packed with milquetoast sycophants, so there is zero chance of seeing him forced out. He has already announced his plans to retire in a few years, and I expect he will stay to the bitter end.
“Schmidt is not much different than Ballmer in the sense that he ran a company with a money printing machine in the back room.”
I thought Ballmer had a money-printing machine in the back room, too. Slightly smaller one, but still.
Doh — I just re-read your post, sorry, you had it right. I need to learn to read.
Funny I was just discussing this with a friend over the weekend. There are a class of people in Microsoft known as FOB’s, or friends of Bills. Being in that group gives one much power and protection inside Microsoft. The Microsoft board respects FOB’s. Steve is a FOB.
It would be counter to Microsoft’s culture and board of directors to oust Steve, and even more so to replace him with someone who is not a FOB.
Microsoft is still making ton’s of money. It is only the stock price that is stuck in a rut. Only a few share holders are speaking out. Microsoft could start paying a bigger dividend and that would appease the shareholders for some time.
For companies of Microsoft’s age and maturity, perception is a big influence on stock price. If they do something good with Windows 8 and at the same time Android gets into deep legal trouble, Microsoft could be sitting pretty in about a year. Luck and good timing could bring Microsoft back to prominence again.
If the board believes Microsoft is on this track, then Steve will keep his job.
the stock price is in a rut because Microsoft is seen as reporting their expected revenues conservatively, and they make that figure. while I am not drilled in the black art of predicting revenue targets from outside, I don’t figure I would need much training for Microsoft stock.
which is like the AT&T of old, like 1960s old, when New York decided how many new customers you would get, and what equipment you would need, and ordered it for you from your projected income in October of the prior year. and your regional division had best not deviate from those numbers. oversell and you can’t deliver service. bad. undersell and you can’t make the numbers. bad.
Microsoft also has a “yeah, man, whenever” product schedule. “even version” sucks and will be bypassed by Corporate, “odd version” adopted, but nowadays later and later. business has this cycle gamed.
I can see this prediction happening.
I wouldn’t hire Eric Schmidt for anything, same as Wozniak or Yang. These folks were lucky enough to get rich but too weird to do anything right and now too rich to care. They are as good as unemployable, as far as I’m concerned.
Yang is definitely an arrogant, weird, aloof asshole. I don’t know why he’s still at Yahoo.
At least Schmidt and Wozniak seem to have some competence (and Woz, lots of humility… hard to say with Schmidt. Yang, no humility at all).
I’d get Bill Gates back on board. I’m sure he’d like a bit more action after some time spending his money with his foundation, something I really appreciate from him.
Bill Gate wouldn’t come back to be the Microsoft’s CEO in a million years … He is very occupied trying to solve *really* important problems …
there are indications if you look around that Gates left because there was too much slack in the strings. honestly, you made the company, and now you rail at pinhead processes that block users getting work done… and nothing happens? billg missives with blood on the 1 bits, and people yawn?
he’s not coming back to that.
he might be part of a transition team in which dumpsters come in and out of Redmond on the half-hour, with the occasional tie visible over the side, and no explainations offered whatsoever. but not CEO.
Personally, I think that Gates saw the train wreck coming and got out while his reputation was still intact. He will have no interest in coming back, nor will he have anything really useful to offer if he did. Gates was never a technical visionary. He was a thief and a sharp businessman.
The big problem for Microsoft is that their business model only works while the tech world is static. If a computer is a beige box with an intel processor, hitachi disk drive, an NVIDIA graphics card, and a Samsung monitor with Windows running inside, Microsoft is pooping in the tall grass.
But once things change, they’re imprisoned by their own business model. Look what happened to them with iTunes. Microsoft tried to compete by offering technology that was going to “let a thousand music stores bloom”. But it turns out there was very little money in music store sales. The key was both economies of scale and holding the whole value chain from iPod, to iTunes. Microsoft is trapped by their business model. They have to tread carefully here to keep from alienating Dell and HP and Lenovo.
It is an article of faith by people of the left that the open source model will always win over time. Altruistic young workers, toiling in their spare time for the good of all, creating quality software for free. How can you beat that?
Except it almost never creates anything really interesting, innovative, or especially successful. Linux is a basically a rip-off of Unix. Gimp is a rip-off of Photoshop. Except possibly for certain infrastructural niches, open source is not where the action is. Think of most open source as the equivalent of those cheap Rolexes you buy in Hong Kong. They’re cheap and sort of look like what you want. This is another business model that just doesn’t compete that well.
Amazon is aligned more vertically than Microsoft, Apple is the classic case, and Google is making steps to move from open source to vertical (Motorola purchase).
Until Microsoft changes their business model, they have no chance in a world of great technological change. It doesn’t matter whose name is atop the company, this is a fundamental problem for them.
And finally, we been in the computer tech wave since the mid 80’s. That’s almost 30 years. We are just now embarking on the mobile wave. It’s going to be tablets, smart phones, and cloud for at least the next decade. Microsoft better find a spot in the cloud since they are hopelessly behind on tablets and phones. It’s not clear they can catch up from here for some of the same reasons Apple couldn’t catch up to Microsoft. Software is hugely sticky. As people invest in more and more Apple software (movies, music, apps) Microsoft has no chance.
Fustian, my early morning posts often ramble on too.. don’t feel too bad for preaching. Maybe you have your own blog we can read?
Big brain, big thoughts.
Sorry.
I think I’ll bite my tongue now…
Thanks for making my week! 😉
I think that XBox is necessary for Microsoft’s future. As people become more mobile and computers become less about a tower and a monitor on a rickety desk shoved in the corner of the dining room, XBox has put Microsoft in a lot of rooms it in wasn’t previously. I think the XBox was a lesson-learned on UltimateTV and that we’ll see more and more content go to the XBox, probably at some point a cable company even offers a box-less solution letting the XBox do the DVR and tuning and OnDemand functions – maybe even become a reseller of the XBox.
The direction we’re seeing with Metro, Windows8, XBox and Windows7 should suggest it’s too soon to count Microsoft out. Especially if they continue to invest in creating apps for iOS and eventually Android.
Except for the tiny problem that Microsoft is again going to miss the shift in tech. Instead of having some console or separate box, when HDTVs have enough hardware to transform into a Smart TV it renders boxes like the XBox 360 useless for anything but playing games.
Its like history repeating itself: Apple and Google push into new full capable and branded Apple TV and Google TV and creating a new market while Microsoft falls far behind trying to sell its old stuff and waving its arms in a “Us Too!” fashion with promises of vaporware and delivering too little too late.
Internet TV always provides a compromised picture quality compared to cable or OTA. Also OTA and internet TV have limited desirable content compared to cable. The point is we need to get the cable operators on board with the idea of 3rd party boxes or TVs before any meaningful progress can be made. So far Microsoft is the only one that has worked with the industry by including acceptable copy protection in the OS for Blu-Ray and cable.
Vinod Khosla, just because i like him.
There’s an obvious typo there. Clearly you meant: “DISlike”.
😉
I just spent five years at Microsoft, and I would contend that the cultural problems are much greater than you realize. The company has been alienating and leaking talent for years. Management is totally dysfunctional, and success within Microsoft is much more about politics than anything else. It’s a miracle anything gets done at all.
That sounds remarkably like any 30+ tech company not named Apple.
When you take the long view, Microsoft doesn’t look too different from GE – hard to push the lever on the stock of a huge company. John’s right – after a certain point, dividends are the way to go.
Apple and Google have had a good run, but they’re younger (if you count Apple as being reborn when Steve Jobs returned).
https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1325797735998&chddm=993140&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=NASDAQ:MSFT;NASDAQ:GOOG;NASDAQ:AAPL&cmptdms=0;0;0&q=NYSE:GE&ntsp=0
If Microsoft wants to go that route, they would need to find the visionary of a Steve Jobs and the discipline of a Larry Page. No knock against him, but it feels like Eric Schmidt might better suited for the early chaotic days of a startup, the rapid growth and innovation phase. Could Microsoft experience such a rebirth? Sounds tough, that there’s strong entrenchment.
you break those entrenchments by spinoffs. also possible.
What Grunchy said.
The last thing a company with a perpetual PR problem needs is a megalomaniacal tool like Eric Schmidt running it. Google would never have become so popular without the “Do No Evil” BS spouted by Brin and Page and it did indeed become an “evil” company under Schmidt. What would he do to a tech company with evil programmed into its very DNA?
Microsoft is barely a trustworthy company as it is. Schmidt is not the answer.
Microsoft got rid of the closest thing they had to a Steve Jobs, J Allard. Yeah, he was a tool, but he was a tool with a vision for a post-Windows, post-Office Microsoft. That’s more than can be said for anyone else there.
I’m not sure this shakeup will happen this year.
There’s a *lot* changing right now, with the XBox, Windows Phone, and the recent flurry of iOS applications (they ported *Kinectimals* to the *iPad*?). There’s something downright funny going on, a combination of becoming more nimble/flexible in some ways (a *Halo* title for iOS?) and more monolithic/coordinated in other ways (forcing Metro and Bing onto my XBox? eeew….).
From my perspective as someone who uses Microsoft stuff but who *doesn’t* use Windows *or* Office, it’s a very strange moment. I can’t quite wrap my head around what’s going on at the company.
Steve’s either causing or permitting this. Seems unreasonable to force him out before it’s had time to shake out, and I’m not sure there will be time for it to shake out in 2012.
Porting apps to ios means apple makes money out of work done at MS. It also means making the apple platforms more entrenched in exchange for short term sales. Very crazy indeed…
Its so crazy it might just work.
But Ballmer is a known character. These mega-big companies need recognisable figure-heads. Colourful people we think we understand, for good or bad.
I suspect Apple needs one too now 🙁
Google looks to me like they’re throwing money at this and that (IBM?) in the hopes of making even bigger-bucks sometime, somewhen and making all kinds of noise. Yet – is there a recognisable character the world knows? (One the public knows, as opposed to all you insiders! 😉 ) I know names but can’t place a face…
Microsoft is at least trying to create new products which quite sensibly (in my limited view) don’t tread on too many patent-owning toes. This latter seems to be what all the hot-air we are hearing about recently, actually is.
Respected consumer tech companies actually need a tangible product AND someone to sell them!
As a lay-person I watch and listen (and especially to Bob!) and lament the fact that real people are disappearing under a morass of faceless law-suits…
Let’s keep the characters we all love to love, or love to hate! 😀
Kinda like how Nintendo has Mario?
Microsoft has the Master Chief! Have him the corporate figurehead!
Is it legal? I mean, the whole “right to work” and “non-compete” stuff are much more relevant at the C-level than us drones. Eric Schmidt probably has an adamantium-lined contract that forbids him from working at another tech company for a year or more after leaving Google. And while both companies have billions of dollars to throw at an employment lawsuit, I just don’t see why Microsoft would think it was worth the time and effort.
That was exactly my question. I can’t imagine it’d be so easy. Cringe’s prediction is interesting & insightful, but realities being what they are, I think it’s unlikely.
I’ve also heard that with Microsoft, you can never come back, but with Google, you always can. Not sure if it’s true, and if so, why the general policies are so different. Any ex-MSFT or ex-GOOG want to chime in here?
Well if Microsoft needs a character, they could always bring in Mark Hurd from Oracle.
He’s definitely got name recognition now.
Well, that’s one way to shed more talent; let Hurd the Butcher cut them all instead.
Agreed, Ballmer is done, if Windows 8 is a flop. Well, at least if it’s a flop on tablets / mobile devices, but this may take into 2013 to prove out. I’m not sure who the right person is, but MS needs is a leader who:
1. Is technical
2. Is willing to ditch the “Windows everywhere” strategy, at least in name. (Don’t they realize the Windows brand isn’t exactly associated with innovation?)
3. Is able to win the respect of the techies inside MS and clean house of stagnant management.
I’ve always wanted to play CEO. Maybe they can hire me to replace Ballmer? 🙂
Why not Scott McNealy? He would be just as welcome at the top of Microsoft!
Mr McNealy, please stop lobbying. It’s poor form.
Bob.
A year ago I would have agreed with you. In fact I wrote an email to you to that effect.
Nowadays I’m not so sure. I don’t think it would be a wise move to do any big shakeups before Windows 8 comes out.
Steve Ballmer needs to go. But I don’t think Schmidt or a resurrected Steve Jobs could save MS in its current state. MS is just too big and dysfunctional to keep going intact for the next 5 to 10 years. I believe the only way for MS to survive would be to split it up like the DOJ wanted to do in the 90’s.
If MS was split into separate companies: Windows (desktop/mobile), Office and XBOX then I think they might have a chance.
You’re right that Steve Ballmer has exhausted his welcome. He’s shown that he is unable to get either consumers or the bankers excited about Microsoft. However, I don’t think Eric Schmidt would be the one to replace him in a million years. I think what may be much more plausable, just before or after the launch of Windows 8, would be to bite the bullet and split the company up into 3 or 4 pieces. I think that’s the only way they’re ever going to unlock all of that shareholder value. I refer you to AT&T, circa 1984. The value of the Baby Bells quickly outgrew the original Ma Bell. We have a mobile/consumer/gaming company, a business applications/consulting/cloud/Internet company, and an OS/infrastructure management company. So we’re not looking at ONE new CEO, we’re looking at perhaps THREE or FOUR.
Looks like we’re on the same page in more ways than one…
Microsoft is working towards an interface ecosystem. WinPhone, Windows 8, and Xbox are all looking more and more similar, thanks to Metro. If the next version of WinPhone runs on Windows 8, then all the better. I think they’re re-tooling that “1990s product” (Windows) to be even more ubiquitous (just waiting for a tablet announcement).
My gut is that Microsoft has seen the writing on the wall in regards to business software (Office), and realized they need something to augment it – in this case, a consumer product (Xbox). Apple has proven that the consumer segment can grow – and while a game system is not a multi-billion dollar device on its own, Microsoft has a trick up its sleeve – if you want to do nearly ANYTHING online with the Xbox, you have to pay $8/month. That’s gotta count for something.
Metro looks like Windows 1.0. I don’t want to go there again.
I suspect that Apple will attempt to eat some of MS Xbox lunch with an updated Apple TV unit which will be a lightweight WII like gaming console.
if you not a huge gamer and dont require the grunt to play Arkham Asylum but do want to while away a few hours playing Angry Birds an ATV unit would probably suffice.
Everything in the article indicates that Schmidt might be the perfect fit for Microsoft. Plus, he knows how to steal from Apple.
Stephen Elop, as a part of Nokia’s merge with Microsoft.
Ballmer, to me, will stick around longer than most of us would like it to be. The Nokia experiment still to be decided later this year and next. Also, Windows 8 will pan out in 2013 if MS is to be believed. A public beta is set for later half of this year?
Since the Windows+Office golden goose (geese?) will keep pouring the cash towards Redmond, investors won’t really have much of a choice but to keep the status quo. Why ruffle the goose, eh? Unless, of course, if the Nokia Experiment AND Windows 8 becomes a total failure – and I don’t foresee both being that bad. Windows 8 has some promise (we’ll let time do its job on this one) and Nokia might still become a division of MS (I can see this train coming).
As for Eric Smith, be careful here. That guy’s screwed Steve Jobs – I read the book too – and we really don’t know his authentic allegiance. Of course, MS board (remember the chairman?) may select him over other qualified candidates, such as Andy Lees from their mobile division. And really, MS will need some reinvigorating leader to bring the culture up to snuff with Google and Facebook – and that small company in Cupertino?
For all we know, Balmer may decide to retire post Windows 8’s successful launch. Then we can talk about who will replace him.
Bob,
Off topic but can you please upgrade your comment system to something like Disqus. I really hate writing my name everytime I comment. Disqus makes managing your comments on different blogs like Wired, Engadget, The Verge, CNN, Fortune, etc. I think your site is perfect for Disqus – and no, this is not a spam.
Thanks,
Anonymous
Why is “Anonymous” pitching for Disqus?! Please ignore the suggestion. Personally, I appreciate not being tracked across the internet. I also think it would stifle the conversation here, which is always pretty civil.
I do like Disqus myself. I don’t have to consciously remember all the blogs where I recently made a comment. I just log back in to Disqus and boom, I see my recent comments and replies (if there are any). Nice system.
This reply doesn’t address the point about anonymity at all. The current system guarantees it. And, I always enjoy wondering whether the comment posted by “Paul Allen” might be from the real Paul Allen.
Disqus has a guest option, but very few sites enable it. It was really designed to keep trolls in line–and, of course, to track you across the internet.
^^^ This.
…meaning I agree with Rick Hunter. Hit wrong reply button by mistake.
If Ballmer goes, it’s because Steven Sinofsky gets his way. He’s had his hands around both of the big cash cows and broken them to his managements style, and is now announcing the new products instead of Ballmer.
No way there’s going to be an outsider brought in – look at how Ray Ozzie got chewed up and spit out.
Have Microsoft buy Amazon and put Jeff Bezos in charge
A low margin business buying a lower margin business. Yeah that would work like a charm. I do like that idea Bezos running MSFT though.
Msft’s phone strategy seems emerging with NOK and Skype …
Interesting theory. Steve did call me a pussy once. It would be pretty funny if I took his job.
I would hire… me. Someone had to say it.
Zuckerberg!
Just kidding.
Seriously, Eric? – your vision of Eric as CEO of MSFT – seems more like a pipe dream – he’d just burn up more money without creating anymore innovative and profitable products – and there’s this image problem Microsoft has – it just isn’t “sexy” – the new CEO needs to trim down the bloat or split up MSFT into seperate entities and give it new focus and make it sexy and attractive to consumers and investors alike – what the government couldn’t do, a new CEO would and it’d be the right one for the long term – my pick for such a candidate – Sheryl Sandberg, current COO of Facebook. The only way to lure her away from Facebook is for the MSFT board to give her a complete unfettered hand in reshaping the company. She’d be hated at first, but in the end, it would be for the best. It wouldn’t even be competing with Google, Apple, Oracle or Facebook anymore. It would be totally new direction and market.
On the subject of MS Office, it’s interesting how Bob thinks it will fade because of the increase in mobile devices. People won’t be sitting in their offices (or home offices) preparing documents and presentations on their Samsung Galaxys. Proper keyboards and office suites won’t just go away.
Correct, it won’t go away, but it will no longer be the center of attention, nearly the same in the eyes of Big Money. Microsoft can’t allow itself to be seen as a purveyor of kerosene lamps and buggy whips.
Not so much obsolete things like kerosene lamps and buggy whips as tools for business, not people, like backhoes or walk in refrigerators.
Replacing people at the top won’t change anything about Microsoft as my book explains. (I worked there 1993 – 2004)
[…] X. Cringely predicts that Eric Schmidt could be Microsoft’s next CEO replacing Steve Ballmer. I’m not saying it wouldn’t or couldn’t happen but I will […]
Schmidt would join his longtime nemesis–the bad blood goes back to his days at Novell–in order to sell his Google stock? That seems implausible, even if Steve Ballmer were forced out.
More likely, Schmidt will be tempted to leave Google for a cabinet position or similar political appointment a few years hence.
Well, I must say that Schmidt wouldn’t be the one to replace Ballmer as many have noted.
That said, to truly fix Microsoft most of the management levels (the upper 7 of 15 levels) probably need to be replaced entirely. These are all VPs from when Gates ran the show – people that as some have noted are FOBs like Ballmer and in a “protected” class as a result. However, these FOBs all need to go – they are all imbued with the Microsoft Culture that Gates established – the EEE culture that destroyed competition and partners alike, and views the world as the company address states – 1 Microsoft Way. In their minds, everything must be Microsoft; or it must not exist. And that is what needs to be fixed at Microsoft.
So, not only would Ballmer have to be ousted, but a good bit of the rest of management as well. This could also be used as an opportunity to stream-line the company, even change directions, and target more than just Windows and Office.
And, btw, Windows 8 will fly like pigs do, and survive like ice in hell, if you know what I mean. That will probably only speed up the ousting process, but they’ll probably count sales for Win8 like the did for Vista and Win7 before that – both saw record sales with ill reception, namely due to all the double counting of licenses the company did for their sales counts.
One thing is for sure – as the mobile markets pick up (and they will), the Microsoft markets (and its profiles as a result) will plummet in direct response.
Unlikely.
You’re assuming the board cares a lot about the stock price. They don’t (much). They do care about revenue. See https://www.microsoft.com/presspass/inside_ms.mspx#RevenueHeadcount
Given this growth for a company this size in a generally shitty economy the board thinks he’s doing a fine job.
Should he retire at some point (and he’s said he will) then most likely he’ll be replaced by an insider such as Sinofsky.
This predication is actually quite perfect, logical and ironic.
Microsoft built their big money printing press by stealing a whole bunch of stuff from Apple.
Eric Schmidt got the whole Android thing rolling after he sat in all those Apple Board meetings, listening to the many iPhone presentations.
The two are simply perfect for one another.
[…] Prediction 7: A new Microsoft CEO, http://www.cringely.com […]
It would be interesting, certainly. There are internal candidates who probably believe that they could do the role. Craig Mundie being one who comes to mind. All of this assumes that there has to be one Microsoft.
It could make sense (in fact it may be very desirable both inside and outside the company) to have several Microsofts. Windows, possibly with server and developer tools in one company, Office and the cloud applications in another, and consumer stuff in another company with a shell holding licencing of brands and intellectual property – maybe even keeping R&D in a more focused way.
A split could release shareholder value and have the businesses in a more manageable format for turnarounds and the deals that need to be made.
Schmidt could certainly be one of those CEOs as well.
great idea, agree 100%
It has been suggested to split up MS in a business company and a consumer company. With J Allard running the consumer company. Allard being the experience guy for Xbox, Zune and Courier. I personally think most employees in business are quite consumer like, so I wouldn’t split it up.
MS could have replaced Balmer before his decision to go all Metro. Now that MS is full on making the shift, they should let him execute his plan. Too late to change now.
> Because there’s a cynical cadre of readers who apparently come here mainly to get angry and feel superior
Oh, come on. We’ve been reading you since the back page days at InfoWorld, or whatever that print rag was called.
You poke us, we poke you. Don’t go all touchy-feely on us. And have another beer.
I think that the “he can cash out” idea is the strongest incentive of all. Even if Schmidt had no desire to run Microsoft (though I think he would relish it) he should take the job just so he can dump all that Google stock.
Google is like a spoiled rich kid blowing through its inheritance. The Android money pit (up to what, $20B now?) is the killer. As pure, ad-littered, search becomes less important there’s a day coming when “suddenly” the party’s over, Google has to tighten its belt, and cutbacks and relentless stock downgrades leave it in tatters.
Besides, by going to Microsoft he can finally be able to be making a profit on Android.
Android wasn’t the killer of anything, nor was it intended to make money. Android was supposed to be an investment in keeping mobile OS from being dominated by any one player who might remove Google Search from the screen. Originally that player was Windows Mobile, which looked threatening (to Google) in 2005. Then it flopped and iOs took over, but the value of the investment remains. Google spending 20B to protect Search was not cheap, but it was the right move. The post-Search world is coming, sure, but not as fast as you think. Just as Office/Windows remains a money-machine, Search and Adwords will hold on for some time, just as Facebook will make billions for a while because 95% of its user base aren’t techie enough to move on to better choices.
They have so far failed to protect search. Even though sales of Android phones are enormous, the very large bulk of what mobile search revenue they get is from IOS devices. Android is an extraordinarily large and expensive albatross.
The $12B they committed to buy MMI is an absurd figure. Doubly so in light of this week’s MMI announcements. A rash act done by a company that doesn’t really know what it’s doing. They may even end up having to walk away and pay the giant fee instead.
I’m not sure how you draw that conclusion. Are you saying there are more iOS devices than Android devices or that iOS owners searching with Google exceed the number of Android owners searching with Google? Either statement needs some explanation/justification.
I suggest…Leo Apotheker He’s in need of a job to redeem himself !
Seriously, Ballmer will be around until he doesn’t want to be or he falls out of a “Window”.
Too bad Gary Kildall was in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Marc Andreessen should be the next CEO of Microsoft. Besides being one of the most prescient strategic thinkers in technology today, it would be poetic justice!
Mark Russinovich: http://blogs.technet.com/b/markrussinovich/ and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Russinovich
[…] Cringely predicts that Steve Ballmer will be ousted (or leave) this year. His prediction begins to seem quite reasonable given that more layoffs are reportedly coming. […]
as long as bill’s majority shareholder, steveb will have a job. simple as that. and given that billg just testified against novell in a trial blast from the past, i doubt billg will suddenly capitulate and go head heel to his old novell arch-rival to rescue his company. this is just a made up pulled from ass headline to juice up pageviews.
Keep in mind that Gates has lost billions of dollars thanks to Ballmer’s mismanagement. And Gates is losing billions more, still, in the potential revenue that Microsoft might be making had Ballmer been more of a tech visionary.
If the right candidate came along, Gates could very easily vote out Ballmer. but I don’t think that candidate is Schmidt.
The only choice is Sinofsky. I think Bill is secretly waiting for this moment too.
I have many many many many years of studying Microsoft closely. Microsoft does not tolerate external leaders. Scmidt will be a disaster.
If for some reason board can not convince Steve to step down, they should let him continue. After some time there will be an internal mutiny. After that, Steve will see the light and I know that Steve loves Microsoft and his employees enough to go with honor.
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