2012 will be a year of great transition in the technology industry with the big changes coming more on the corporate level than in products. Sure, Windows 8 is on its way as are any number of new products, services, and whole companies, but the major story playing-out is who will lead the mobile transition? Will Apple continue its resurgence even without Steve Jobs? Will Microsoft retain its market share dominance and find a way to translate that into the mobile market as PCs continue to whither? Will Google beat Facebook? Will Facebook beat Google? Will some tablet dethrone the iPad? How will the industry look a year from today? I think that every one of those companies mentioned except Google will have a new CEO a year from now. Yes, even Apple.
Prediction #1 — Insurrection at Apple.
I wrote a column last summer when Steve Jobs retired from Apple saying that Tim Cook would not be CEO for long. Though Steve wrote to me (our last-ever communication) to say I was wrong, I think more than ever that I was correct. Apple will get a new CEO in 2012 and while I have a guess who that person might be I think I’ll wait before making that particular prediction.
If you are wondering when Apple will peak, well we’re about there folks. Yes, there will be more iPhones and cool computers but it is my belief that Apple’s best days have come and gone.
There was an original Star Trek episode from 1968 called The Tholian Web, in which Kirk appeared in a posthumous video prepared specifically for Bones and Spock. The gist of Kirk’s speech was that if they were watching the video he must be dead and if he was dead then they were also probably at each other’s throats. This is the almost inevitable outcome in a system built solely from A-players when the spiritual leader (the only A+) dies.
Steve Jobs is dead and Tim Cook is no Steve Jobs. He knows that, we know that, and anyone who works directly for him at Apple (those A-players) knows it, too. Following a period of shock, mourning, and pretending to get along, those rocks will start rubbing on each other again only this time there won’t be a founder willing (eager even) to make the hard choices. Chaos will ensue.
This is not all bad for Apple. Steve could have done many things faster so an accelerated rate of change might in some ways be good for the company. But it doesn’t bode well for Cook, who will become a target for those beneath him. Eventually (and by eventually I mean this year) he’ll have to either clean house, throwing away a lot of those A-players, or give up power, which is to say Cook will take the chairman’s job and find another CEO.
I think he’ll gratefully take the chairman position, keeping his Apple stock in the process.
I’m not saying Apple is doomed by any means. The company has resources to survive any number of bonehead moves. But Apple without Steve Jobs will never be the same and some regression seems inevitable.
My next prediction concerns which company I believe will assume Apple’s mantle of product leadership. It’s not who you expect.
Bob, you’re a fool if you think Jobs was single-handedly shaping and directing Apple. There is a team of dozens. You should know this as well as anyone. They will not be getting a new CEO. You’re dead wrong and should get out of the pornognostication business if you’re going to keep randomly flinging your feces at the wall to see what sticks.
Well. How did Apple do when Jobs was away? The same “team” you claim is the real reason for Apples success didn’t do so bloody well without Jobs to guide them, now did they? Remember the time when Apple couldn’t even be sold at discount price because there were no takers. Then Jobs came back and suddenly the team happened to find their right way.
No such coincidences.
Who from the pre-Jobs-return ‘team’ is still at Apple? That ‘team’ is long gone.
When Steve left the first time, he took the best people with him to form Next.
This time, he left the best people behind.
Brook,
You are making Bob’s point for him. There is a great team of very bright people at Apple. With all those people who are smart achievers, what will happen when the giant, charismatic dictator is gone?
They will fight, and argue and start to build empires within the company. That will cause chaos and grid lock.
As long as they don’t install a bean counter as CEO, they will be OK. As Bob says, they have cash in the bank to be stupid for a looong time.
Congratulations, you’ve created a Googlewhack!
https://www.google.nl/#sclient=psy-ab&hl=nl&site=&source=hp&q=pornognostication&pbx=1&oq=pornognostication&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&gs_sm=e&gs_upl=1116l1116l0l1561l1l1l0l0l0l0l136l136l0.1l1l0&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.,cf.osb&fp=6d32e7e31bf2753e&biw=1680&bih=930
A freudian slip of the keyboard or cleverly constructed word? Either way, a prognoses based on a classic Star Trek episode can’t be wrong.
Oooooh, Brookie. touchy touchy… Got all your retirement shekels tied up in Apple stock mayhaps?
> Apple’s mantel
Damn, not only the TV but also the furniture!
Fixed, thanks.
I dub thee, Sir Jony Ive, CEO
Sir Jony Ive is my best guess.
It’s all about awesome products, the rest just accommodates that. Will he be a brilliant CEO? maybe not, but he has enough A players around him that it will work out.
I expect Tim Cook to still be Apple’s CEO 20 years from now, and I expect Apple’s earnings to have at least quadrupled in that time. He spent the last decade making everything happen that Steve chose to do. When Tim’s ready to retire, the next CEO of Apple is likely to be someone we haven’t even heard of yet, someone who may not even be working for Apple today. The bottom line is: Steve chose Tim, and he chose very well.
-jcr
Tim, stop posting under different aliases, we’re on to you.
I was struck that last year you said Microsoft would be the next IBM (true) and Google the next Microsoft (true).
Absent was Apple and I thought it implied that Apple would always be the same, an island apart from the rest of the frothing tech universe.
I take your prediction to be essentially that continental drift is moving Apple back to the rest of the tech continent. I don’t think the ensuing collision will be pretty.
We’ll just have to see how the next product announcement goes. The iPhone 4S announcement was done by Cook but Jobs was still there in spirit. There will undoubtedly be announcements for an iPad3 and iPhone5 and maybe some other products (iMac, Mac Pro, iLife, etc) and this will be the next true visible test of Tim Cook.
I don’t know if Apple needs a flamboyant celebrity CEO to make announcements so long as they keep ahead of the curve and releasing cool products. There is still the question of the rumoured Apple TV and how it will revolutionize the TV/movie market like it did with the record market.
Ive is a great designer but who knows if he is CEO material.
Ahh but you forget Apple is basically a design company working in the tech space.
it the 80/20 rule again 80% design and delivery 20% tech and previously a good help of Steve’s RDF.
Remember, Apple didn’t invent MP3 players, tablets or laptops but they did polish them and make them elegantly disruptive thought product integration and design!
I said nothing about Ive. I also didn’t say Apple needed a flamboyant CEO, just one capable of making the right decisions stick.
I was just responding to a previous poster about Jony Ive.
Steve Jobs was definitely a celebrity and had the gift of showmanship. I read a few comments about the last iPhone announcement and the general consensus was that Cook came off as flat. Still the 4S has been a big hit so maybe great products are all that are needed.
Ive is an interesting thought, but I can’t help but think that he already has the job he wants.
I find myself quite curious about who you have in mind to replace Tim.
I’m assuming you’re not thinking of Al Gore. He did invent the internet, and his green stuff isn’t doing so well right now. Still not a good idea.
I figure Bezos and Ellison are already busy.
Apotheker is toxic.
If I really think outside of the box, there is one brilliant visionary not doing much right now. How bizarre would it be if Bill Gates decided to take over the reins of Apple?
So gloriously wrong on so many levels!
So, who can Mr. X mean?
“He did invent the internet” Seriously???
I’m going to assume you’re serious and not being sarcastic.
Al Gore was attempting to puff himself up once while running for office (I believe). He said something like “I took the initiative in creating the internet”.
His actual claim would be that as a member of government, he recognized the early potential of the internet and “helped it along” in some vague unspecified way.
But I think he was really trying to have it both ways. Most people think that Gore is a joke and that this was a particularly idiotic thing to have said. His supporters make the claim that there is a huge difference between the word “create” and “invent”.
Personally, I’m not having it. I think the man is a buffoon and he was trying to suggest he was much more involved with the creation of the internet than he actually was. And he got called on it big time.
@Fustian. I was quoting your words, and asking if you are serious. Of course I agree with your response to my post. He neither created nor invented it. He may have contributed to it but so did I (as an engineer since the 60s) and so does everyone who pays for internet access. I guess I don’t understand why you mentioned him in the first place.
@Ronc
I thought it was funny.
Horrifyingly I bet there are people that wouldn’t.
Cook is going to stay CEO — a year from now you will be eating a tasty bowl of “claim chowder”.
Jonathan Ive however, should step into Steve’s keynoter-in chief role. Anyone who saw Ive speak (following Al Gore) at the Apple campus Steve Jobs memorial, realizes that he is by far the best public speaker at Apple right now. Hand the RDF mantle to Ive.
Why does everyone assume that the next iPhone will be the iPhone 5 ?
I would suggest iPhone 4G or iPhone 4HD .
In my opinion , Apple does not march to anyones tune except their own .
And there own tune has gone:
3 -> 3GS
4 -> 4S
So logically the next one is 5.
Or the iPhone Nano.
I would like to predict America is losing all her crown jewels to the Far East and thanks to MS and Google through their softwares being used in products made by these companies in the far east and snap up by the fans in the west.
I also like to predict the jobs are gone to the far east and there is no way of getting them back.
Bob has a point regarding a clash between the A-players now that Steve is out of the picture.
For instance, I would see Scott Forstall (VP of iOS software) gunning for the CEO seat. He is apparently very ambitious and doesn’t care if he ruffles some feathers. According to a Business Week article (“Scott Forstall, the Sorcerer’s Apprentice at Apple”), VP of hardware Bob Mansfield and Jony Ive avoid meetings with him unless Tim Cook is present.
Now, whether Forstall (or anybody else) will have what he wants – and if so, whether it’s going to be in 2012 – is a whole other business.
Forstall is completely overrated and easily expendable.
Guys like Bob Mansfield and Johny Ive aren’t.
If there is a showdown Forstall will be the one that is out.
However this plays out, the talent acquisition opportunities for competitors and startups will be immense.
This is your dumbest work to date. Please! Steve Jobs’ day to day influence on Apple ended with his liver transplant. Tim Cooke has been running the company ever since. The product line and evolution is set and reflects the team effort of those A minus players, who must be graded on your own curve, since they remain A plus compared to any other team. Let’s see, uh Balmer? Schmidt?, oh no, your favorite, Bezos, who set loose a defective Kindle Fire at a lose money price to go back to the sell them ink model of profit. Clearly your need to get hits outweighs your grip on reality. I’m sure you will go on spouting this garbage until it finally happens sometime in the future, then claim, “I told you so.” Looking forward to MDN’s take on this spew.
Geez, Apple fans are a touchy lot. You could have disagreed with him and explained why, without the ad-hominem rubbish.
A possible scenario ……. Facebook foregoes IPO. Apple buys Facebook with a deal breaker making Zuckerberg CEO of Apple.
Similar attitude to Jobs: relentless focus on whittling down to the simplest experience.
John Scully once said in an interview that everything he did at Apple after Steve Jobs was ousted was still just following plans that Steve had laid out before then. That was even after an antagonistic exit, and with Scully wanting to make his personal mark on Apple (remember the Knowledge Navigator video and the Newton).
This time around Steve Jobs knew he was going soon, so he had time to plan. No doubt there’s an internal list at Apple of initiatives and strategies for the next five to ten years that Jobs gave his personal stamp of approval. The team he built knows much better than to upset that plan. Most certainly a prominent item on that list is “Tim Cook is CEO.” This would’ve only been revealed outside the board after Jobs officially resigned, but don’t forget he wrote in his resignation letter “I strongly recommend that we execute our succession plan and name Tim Cook as CEO of Apple.” Then the terms of the stock compensation package Cook was granted afterwards make it clear that Apple’s board of directors want him in that spot for the long haul.
There may be some internal clashes under Tim Cook (about how to interpret and execute The Plan), but don’t forget it’s the board of directors who choose the CEO. Anyone who wants to dethrone Tim Cook would need their support. None of Apple’s lieutenants who might be ambitious enough to want the CEO spot have that. Tim Cook is their man. Plus there’s no way the board would agree to a CEO shakeup so soon, since he only got the job at the end of August 2011.
The biggest change that might happen to Apple’s leadership over the next year or two is that one or another of their SVPs might leave. Forstall might be the most likely one, but he sounds like the type who’ll stick it out thinking he has the years on Tim Cook and he still has a shot at the top spot, even though he doesn’t. Mansfield might leave if he gets too fed up with Forstall. I expect that another part of The Plan is to keep Apple’s divisions siloed enough that any friction between them couldn’t elevate to that degree, though. (Sir) Ive would be offered anything short of the CEO position to stay, so that COULD include Forstall’s head on a platter, but again with the siloing I don’t think it’d ever come to that. As for the rest, aside from maybe Eddy Cue they’re all soldiers, not generals. It could have been argued that Tim Cook was a solider and not a general, too, but his elevation to CEO was due to expediency, plus they test drove him a couple times first. Finally, as SVP of Internet Software and Services Eddy Cue doesn’t have any true successes under his belt (yet) to support him if he wants to make a play for the top spot, so he’d have to wait well past 2012 before he can even think of it.
Bob, this one’s the 2012 version of your “White iPhone 4 will be a Verizon exclusive” prediction for 2011.
Excellent point bout the board of directors. If ever Cook would ever be moved to Chairman, it would be predicated by significant changes on the Board. Not going to happen. Hand-picked. They have a manifesto – the book of Jobs. Am really surprised by this prediction, Bob! Of all the things Jobs was known to be, it was as a master planner and a meticulous detail person. He was extremely paranoid about corporate structures and his legacy is Apple. There is no way on earth that he did not ensure the future prosperity of Apple and did not foresee and prevent the power games among the executives. I wouldn’t put it past some sort of blood pact!
Quite well agreed.
Jobs wanted Apple around for the long haul, and personally (while I have no proof to back this up) I think he was planning for that from the very moment he retook control.
Before Jobs returned, Apple without Jobs was nothing but a failure. Jobs returned and turned out the company; I’d be very surprised if he didn’t build in something for how to keep that failure from happening again.
Remember too that Tim Cook also served as an interim CEO while Steve was officially on sick leave for an extended period of time. So the whole company is already familiar with him and Jobs had time to vet him too. So he must have done well enough that Jobs felt comfortable leaving the company in his hands and strongly recommending the board to do so as well.
So I fully expect that the upper levels of management have been over the last 14 years, but especially the last 4 years more than prepped for an Apple without Steve Jobs; probably even being run that way without the public knowing it as Steve probably tried to train the upper levels to function successfully without him – and Tim Cook’s previous posting to CEO was the very biggest test of that.
“No doubt there’s an internal list at Apple of initiatives and strategies for the next five to ten years that Jobs gave his personal stamp of approval. ”
If Apple is still doing well two years from now, can we expect this to turn into a myth ala Foundation, with Steve Jobs as Hari Seldon? It would be amusing if it did so, with people speaking in hushed tone about the secret Apple plan that is, once a year, trotted out of the safe, the next page, covering the next year, is read to the board, and then, back into secrecy it goes.
An interesting set of predictions. You are correct about Amazon and Bezos, since they are the only one left standing with staying power. Google made the mistake of going after power instead of “soulshare” and Facebook is just a flash in the pan. On the other hand, I’m not sure that this will be evident by 2013, much less 2012 unless there’s a major economic upheaval.
Apple is an interesting dilemma. It is truly a design shop that turns out concepts which happen to be on the surface great products. They basically use the concept and design to extract the most out of dull technology, unlike the rest of the tech businesses.
I knew Tim at Duke, was a distant peer of mine at IBM and a client during his tortuous but very education at IE. You are correct in that Tim is no Jobs, but Jobs needed Tim to succeed. Tim is the quintessential operations executive, and given a strategy could act out the CEO job, but only for a limited period of time.
Design shops, just like the retailers and consumer firms of old, succeeded when they need to alternate between periods of creative expansion followed by a time of operations optimization. An ideal mix. Design shops are no different. Tim will fill this role as optimizing CEO brilliantly until such time that the strategy and forceful direction from Jobs gets fuzzy (strategies and leadership in spirit do have a time value that decays in businesses). Then it will be time for another creative Genghis Kan.
I give Tim 2 years, not one, and I suggest they’ll need someone like Lasseter to replace him. Ive, Forestall and the others are brilliant, but unfortunately they are part of the furniture, to use the old consultant term.
Tim may shoot himself in the foot sooner and thus save you from a prediction strike out if they decide to delve into the services business or try to screw the application developers even more than they are getting squeezed now.
They won’t find the great tormented and artistic Genghis Kan because none of them want to work nowadays for an established firm. No one capable will be able to replace Jobs, because no one who can do what’s needed for Apple to break out of its mold wants to work under the shadow of the great lucky tyrannical genius…..if he was ever a genius instead just an extremely focused, selfish and tortured soul. Simplicity reigns. Long live the dead king of the highly controlled beauty of simplicity and form.
Settle down there, Richey… “Screw the application developers”?
Based on the crashing iOS devices I’ve used, the lackluster Apple applications, etc. I’d say they’re pretty much already doing that to themselves, they don’t need any help from Tim.
Now go back and write me some damn code, Richey (and learn to spell).
I don’t write code for Apple, as you know.
Funny, I ran what I put here on two spell checkers (MS Word and OpenOffice) and didn’t get a spelling error. Care to point out the spelling error?
I believe “Kan” is generally spelled “Khan”.
Ah yes, the 3 spell checkers I use missed it in context. Thanks for correcting me.
Just to be clear, I went looking for the spelling error as an intellectual exercise after your request.
I wasn’t intending to be snide.
Rich, what do you mean by ‘design shop’? You seem to be implying that design and technology exist in two very separate worlds. I believe your are wrong. Look, for example, at the role software plays in Apple’s products: is this typical of a ‘design shop’?
C
We can agree to disagree.
They are two worlds, according to Jobs, and I agreed with him. They intersect of occasion, and can coexist (like Apple) but one side or the other always dominates (I haven’t seen any examples of balance anywhere). Either design rules or function, technology and bit twiddling overrides simplicity (like flavors of Android).
Good code doesn’t mean the latest code. Good, stable, closed code like what Apple excels at is where design and user experience triumphs over getting the latest function doesn’t mean it has to be advanced technologically. Ditto for hardware. A good example is the iMac, where Jobs made the decision to not include the latest DVD-CD burners for music but they still created a very nice, friendly and usable product. When they looked at burning music and DVD’s, design triumphed over technology when they saw that DVD’s where just a techie fix for what the users really wanted, which was the iPod with iOS as a delivery and maintenance vehicle not a primary human presentation channel. Very good design thinking and forcing engineering out of its rut and into a new humanistic enablement path.
Oh please. Stop talking rubbish.
Application developers will NEVER leave the iOS platform so long as (a) there are so many customers willing to hand over money and (b) the fragmentation is kept to a minimum.
That and the only alternative (Android) is the biggest nightmare platform I’ve seen in 15+ years making apps. Fragmentation is a REAL issue for developers.
Taligent, today’s mobile developers either live in the confines of the enslaved world of Apple where they get the crumbs after Apple takes all the charges they dare to take against the sale or they live in the chaotic world of Android. Symbian is a subset of Apple from a revenue risk point of view, just like RIM and Windows.
You can choose to live in the world where your revenue stream is controlled, your support structure is mono-directional, your content is censored (if necessary and deemed so by Apple) and your future success is guided by who ingratiates Apple best. In addition, you can lose it all if Apple deems you unfit or if your application is so strategic that Apple decides to either insource it or give it to another partner.
On the other hand, the world of Android is certainly fragmented, uncontrolled and chaotic. Code levels fly by, you need extensive regression testing and like Apple, you can be squashed by Google as well.
Throw in Symbian and BBX (Blackberry 7 OS) into the mix and it’s no wonder you call out fragmentation and the primary problem for non-iOS mobile developers. It’s natural for those in each corner to try to lock in permanently and squeeze the developers just like Wal-Mart does with its suppliers.
Developers will bolt the moment they see revenues aren’t there (which many at Apple have already see and are beginning to realize) and leave Android when they see the same revenue problems, fragmentation and testing issues there.
The money spigot is drying up, mostly because Apple has become like the IBM of the old days, too greedy and increasingly taking more of the take while using your argument. Maybe (and I doubt it) Microsoft might give Apple a scare just because they treat developers somewhat better.
> They won’t find the great tormented and artistic Genghis Kan because none of them want to work nowadays for an established firm.
There’s the Twaddle guy, whatsisface, Dempsey? Got the image in the mags, but not the products – twats is craps, pace the stupidsensia and the marketeers, and the Square card biz may never take off.
Very good eurocent2! I like that out of the box (maybe out of the galaxy) through process.
It’s a fine line between being an artistic Genghis Kan and a confidence man, just like its a fine line between being a banker and a preacher or even a drug dealer.
It’s easy (if you have the touch) to sell hopium. You can promise a demo, financial riches, 50 virgins or God’s redemption to get the first act of the done by the sheeple.
It’s the day after that’s the challenge and that’s what separates the continuous and repetitive winners from the one time frauds and flash in the pan types in this business.
kHaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaan!
Reading these backwards Bob, but I think you are 0-2. Where Cook may lack in design he is brilliant in operations. Someone is making the Apple machine work. My bet is Cook would last around 3 years when I expect the Jobs tail to end. Technology changes too rapidly for Jobs to have left more than 3 years to stuff behind. But again Bob, I like the discussion you create.
Bravo Dave, a well balanced, well thought out answer. The discussion is the diamond in the rough to be sifted and searched for, not the results.
I like your three year window. Makes sense, although I believe it’s getting compressed all the time.
On the other hand I guess we must wait until January 1, 2013 to see what the fat lady actually sung for or against Bob in 2012.
You’re basing your prediction on a lesson you learned from a Star Trek episode?!
You do know that Star Trek was fiction, don’t you? It was TV entertainment, not real life.
Tim Cook has been essentially running Apple for at least the past 2 extraordinarily successful and innovate years. Jobs hand picked him. He will succeed and remain.
You and your link bait are wrong again.
I’m surprised a Ronin doesn’t espouse the warrior philosophy.
“When you are number one (at the top of the heap), the only way you advance is either out or down.”
I believe the discussion here is about the inevitability of Cook’s relationship with Apple. He’ll either leave to go somewhere else better (mon Dieu!) Can that be possible?)or he’ll leave in disgrace. He’s too young to retire because if he lasted to a normal retirement he’d have to outlast (14-17 years) most of his peers in this industry.
While under Steve, he was protected by the benevolent despot. Now the sharks are circling, they are more numerous with every passing day and they will be more hungry along with the BofD.
Quick! What was the last prediction you made concerning Apple or Steve Jobs that turned out to be correct?
Nice. 🙂
NONE of Bob’s 2011 predictions about Apple turned out to be correct:
“Apple’s white iPhone 4 would be the Verizon iPhone 4. … Wrong, wrong wrong.”
“Apple’s Carolina Strategy … to put most of our data in the cloud and run our iDevices as glorified thin clients… I can’t claim this as a win.”
“I totally blew it when I said Apple would buy Time Warner Cable.”
Let’s take a look at Bob’s 2010 predictions… Well, on 4 Jan 2011 he wrote “last January I didn’t write a predictions column, thinking we were past all that (silly me) so there is nothing with which to embarrass myself here.”
But wait! On 12 Jan 2010 he wrote a post titled “Apple 2010: More of the Same and Blu-Ray, too,” giving 2010 predictions specifically about Apple! We’re saved!
So, in Jan 2011 he didn’t grade himself on his 2010 Apple predictions, but we can do that here:
“the coming iSlate tablet, or whatever it will be called … definitely won’t be running exclusively on AT&T.” (Wrong. 3G data on the original iPads that had 3G hardware only worked on AT&T in the U.S.)
“The iSlate (or whatever) will be Steve’s idea of a new category of computing … [it’ll] be something else and I’d say that something will depend on: a) the content deals Apple can announce, and; b) whatever Steve decides to claim for the product, whether actually true or not.” (Yes, a new category; No, content deals weren’t something it depended on to define it; So, what DID Steve claim for the iPad, other than that it’s “magical”? We’ll give Bob only partial credit on this one.)
“Expect some major UI gimmick [on the iSlate] too, because that’s always at the heart of one of these advances.” (Nope. It was “a big iPod touch.”)
“Apple will under-promise and over-deliver for the iSlate.” (They promised “Magic!” 🙂 They delivered something that pundits were underwhelmed by [“big iPod touch…”], making Steve quite upset. In the end it looked like they actually about hit their mark, so I don’t think Bob gets this one.)
“Apple as a content company will move into subscription music based on its recent Lala Media acquisition” (Nope.)
“look for Blu-Ray drives to start appearing, shortly, in Apple computers along with Blu-Ray support in all of Apple’s professional applications.” (Nope.)
“Look also for Apple to offer some higher level of HD download, probably with expanded device portability courtesy of Disney’s new KeyChest technology” (Nope and nope.)
“in 2010 we’ll surely see at least two next-gen iPhones, too — a smaller form factor in the Nano tradition and a 1 GHz processor on something like the current model.” (Nope, only the single iPhone 4.)
Final score for Bob’s Apple predictions for 2010: 8 wrong, 1 partial credit (that the iPad was going to be a new category of device; just not quite the way Bob predicted).
Now, while we’re at it and since I already have the page loaded, lets look at some of the other things Bob said about Apple early in 2011:
11 Jan: “I still believe the white iPhones will come from Verizon, but they’ll be LTE models that we’ll see later this year.” (White iPhones came to both AT&T and Verizon, they were still 3G, and there’s still no LTE iPhone. Wrong.)
12 Jan: “Where’s the Long Term Evolution (LTE) network? Where’s surfing while talking? Where’s the damned white case?
June.” (The white iPhone 4 came before June. Still no LTE or surfing and talking on Verizon iPhones. Wrong.)
18 Jan: “it is my guess the next Apple CEO won’t be Tim Cook, not because Tim isn’t a good executive but because he isn’t Steve’s creation.” (Wrong.)
11 Feb: “at the WWDC in June Apple will announce the expected multi-core, 4G, international-ready, whiter-then-white, 1.2-GHz iPhone 5, but the “one more thing” will be a repackaged, smaller form-factor, $29 iPhone 3GS.” (Same wrong guesses about 4G and waiting until June for a white model. Correct on multi-core, but that wasn’t a stretch. Wrong on the processor speed, wrong on the name, wrong on the 3GS being “repackaged” in a “smaller form-factor,” wrong on the price, wrong on it being the “one more thing” [it was practically just a footnote–who’s going to get all that excited about an 8GB iPhone 3GS, even if it IS free with contract?].)
In the end it looks like the best odds are to bet completely AGAINST Bob’s predictions for Apple. Will this be a lesson for Bob’s readers who agree with him on his predictions about Apple? Of course not!
Feeling humble, yet, Bob? 🙂
Welll…no, he’s really probably feeling pretty good.
Bob’s an accomplished raconteur, by his own words. He never claimed to be an oracle (sorry Larry) or be infallible.
The objective is page views and blog chatter, not that he’s right or wrong. The prediction score results are irrelevant. What is relevant is that you and I have spent time here and commented. That’s money in the bank for Bob.
Besides, he’s got a hot wife and he circulates among models. As a geek, I am impressed with Bob’s abilities in this key area. When do we get more Xmas cards, Bob?
Ever hear the phrase “lipstick on a pig”?
If the actual content of one’s writing is rubbish, it doesn’t matter how accomplished a raconteur one is in writing it.
And if Bob didn’t really care about how well he did on his previous predictions he wouldn’t write followup reviews on them a year later. It’s so much easier to just spew a load of flamebait into the ether and then immediately forget you ever said it as you move on to crafting another steaming pile to attract the flies.
It’s truly pitiful, if your main goal as a writer is to get pageviews. Whatever happened to writing great content, so that people actually wanted to read your stuff?
As far as I can tell, the best information to take out of his posts about Apple is to directly assume the opposite.
Tim Cook is a brilliant man. He will be the head of Apple for many years to come.
It’s one of the smoothest, longest planned transitions we’ve seen in a large company, and it comes with a very strong game plan for the next 18 months. Hard to imagine that unraveling in any way, considering how strongly Apple has executed in recent years. Eventually, sure, but already in 2012? Not likely.
Blimey – 2012, the year of the TROLL !
It will be Woz. It can only be Woz. Seems a bit radical? Not the obvious choice? That is why it will be Woz. We are talking Apple here remember. Anyone other than Woz would not be mind-blowing enough.
Slap yourself. Woz’s days at Apple are well behind him.
Robert… Wondering if this might be the mystery replacement CEO you’re thinking of. https://www.adweek.com/adfreak/creepy-steve-jobs-action-figure-will-be-real-collectors-item-137305
> Cook will take the chairman’s job and find another CEO
That will be Bog Iger. He is already on the board – isn’t he?
[…] X Cringley tror inte att Cooke blir kvar länge på posten som VD för Apple: Steve Jobs is dead and Tim Cook is no Steve Jobs. He knows that, we know that, and […]
Bob,
PCs continue to wither, not whither. : )
New CEO, lol !
I’m pretty sure you just write these articles to troll Apple fans, judging by the comments and reactions, it works.
They let any idiot have a blog these days.
Let’s not kid ourselves and pretend Steve during his decline over the last couple years had the energy to be much more than the idea guy and keynote showman. As great as he was, he certainly didn’t have the stamina to be the one-and-only leader of Apple. Sometimes we were told that officially via PR notices about Steve taking an extended break from his duties and sometimes not. If you’ve been paying attention, you know that Tim Cook has effectively been the CEO of Apple for roughly the last 2 years. The prediction that Cook won’t last past his first year has already been disproven, and if Apple’s executives were going to stage a coup, it would have already happened.
ughhh
is this all you’ve got?
Comment threads, more and more, are the province almost exclusively of assholes, know-nothings, popinjays, douche-wads, and chuckleheads. There’s nothing worth reading in them.
Including this comment. I’d like a way to not even have to see all this finger-diarrhea and just stick to the main content.
“Comment threads, more and more, are the province almost exclusively of assholes, know-nothings, popinjays, douche-wads, and chuckleheads.”
So, in other words, tech commentators?
So
mature professional will suddenly start to act as immature children.
And a man who has been given tons of million of shares to be at the head of apple for years, will left in 12 month.
Yeah
(change jobs)
So
mature professional will suddenly start to act as immature children.
And a man who has been given tons of million of shares to be at the head of apple for years, will left in 12 month.
Yeah
(change job)
RXC:
You sure say some stupid things.
Apple confounds all the prognosticators, that’s why we (some of us) love ’em.
I think the “Steve Jobs Memorial Apple Strategic Plan” goes much farther than 1 or 2 years. He had the phone and pad in mind many years before they appeared. I think 5-7 years at minimum. If Cook can keep the team in line and together, he’s the guy. He’s likely proven that, in spades, by now.
While Apple may not need a new chief executive, they likely need a new presenter. That choice should come in 2012, and it will be interesting to see who that turns out to be.
And to those slagging Bob: his quarter-century of experience is worth, if you add about $1.45, a tall coffee at Starbucks (last I checked). But I too have been reading him for about a decade and prefer him hugely over the hacks employed everywhere else on this confounded webs-thing. I’m happy to contribute to his so-called “link-bait” and will be sorry to see his publishing run (self or otherwise) end.
[…] job controlling Flash, at least in mobile. Anyway, you could make a lot of money betting against Cringely’s predictions. ? This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. ← […]
Ahah ahah
What a stupid post LOL
Tim Cook will be the CEO of Apple for many years to come
The internet will laugh at this post on 1 gen 2013
LOL. ridiculous post
It’s incredible that people like this, who has any knowledge with the industry, are permitted to write such stupid things
The way you guys are talking, Steve Jobs is like Hari Seldon from the old Asimov “Foundation” trilogy. Every so often, after he is long dead, he comes out and describes events exactly as they are happening now and lays out the solution. Several of you say that Jobs was little more than the vision guy and chief marketing guru at Apple in the last several years, while others did the day to day work. You say that like it’s a diss but really, that has always been Steve’s gift, and that is the big vacancy in Apple now that he’s gone. As in the days of Scully, when Apple was wildly profitable, Apple is again riding on its momentum and will do so for some time. But without that incredible vision and marketing savvy that was Jobs’ true gift, the company will eventually fade unless it can find a new visionary.
Scott Forstall will be named CEO in 2012
[…] Robert X. Cringely med flera spekulerar i att detta blir året då flera tunga IT-VD:ar får flytta på sig. Just Microsoft och Apple befinner sig båda i en situation där logiken hos de som styr respektive företag nog talade tydligt om att valet av Tim Cook och Steve Ballmer var rätt. […]
I agree.
iPad is way overpriced.
iPad should be seeing ‘hockey stick’ growth but he is satisfied with linear growth. He does not understand that iPhone is subsidized by carriers to $199 whereas customers have to pay $500 COLD HARD CASH for iPad.
iPad is way overpriced.
Making this mistake is excusable. It is human. Defending this mis mistake publicly is inexcusable (Apple may have lost $1 Billion to Kindle Fire according to a report).
[…] • 2 CommentsLoading… • WikiCannot add comment if you are logged out.Ryan Lackey https://www.cringely.com/2012/01/…Comment downvoted • 6:40pmCannot add reply if you are logged out.6:40pmAlex Regueiro I'm […]
I just don’t think anyone is going to catch up to Apple anytime soon. We have the iPad 3 coming out next month, iPhone 5 probably in the fall, the TV at some point either late this year or early next and today we heard about a refresh of the macbook pros that will disrupt laptops everywhere. Regardless, Apple has NOT seen its best days. Obviously this is easy for me to say after the recent earnings announcement of $46 billion in revenue.
The bottom line is Tim Cook is doing a fine job and I would expect him to stay at the helm for the foreseeable future. The company has plenty to keep them busy and I don’t think any possible infighting will be enough to bring Apple down or dethrowne Cook.
Eye Aging…
[…]I, Cringely » Blog Archive Prediction #1: A new CEO for Apple – Cringely on technology[…]…
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