Everything I know about Stephen Hawking I learned one evening a couple years ago at the old Claremont Hotel on the border between Oakland and Berkeley, California. I was there to give a speech and was late for the gig, so instead of waiting for an elevator I took the stairs down a couple floors in the old wooden hotel. Bursting through the doors at the bottom of the stairs and into the lobby I almost crashed into Stephen Hawking! Killing a world-famous physicist in a wheelchair is not what I wanted to be remembered for so it was lucky I was able to roll a bit to one side and avoid — just barely — taking out both Hawking and his chair.
Recovering from my gaffe, the first thing I noticed was that Hawking was surrounded by four (4!) attendants, all of them attractive young women (not the girls from the picture). This guy, trapped as he was in his body ravaged by ALS, still knew how to live. He proved this again when I bumped into Hawking — in a completely different sense — in the Claremont bar after my gig, where he was still surrounded by the laughing girls and apparently enjoying a festive beverage.
I thought about that encounter, if it even was an encounter, this week when I heard about Hawking’s new book and Discovery Channel documentary in which he cautions against announcing ourselves to the universe just in case aliens we attract want to eat, enslave, or simply eliminate us, which Hawking apparently sees as a pretty good bet. His premise being that we are a young civilization in an old galaxy and if we are visited by aliens they’ll probably bring enough firepower to burn our sorry asses.
This latter part of the story is where Hawking and I part ways, because I simply don’t agree. If superior aliens are going to find us — attracted no doubt by old Sonny & Cher and Partridge Family episodes — I’d posit that they have already done so, found us boring, and moved on. But I guess that wouldn’t make much of a book, would it?
In other news I was surprised this week, not that HP bought Palm (after all, they’d already bought 3Com, which begat Palm) but that the press had figured the deal would go to Lenovo. This was analyst manipulation of stupid reporters. Yes, Lenovo is moving into mobile devices like all of its competitors, but buying Palm made little sense because: 1) Lenovo is a Microsoft hardware OEM and pretty much nothing else, and; 2) Lenovo already over-paid for the IBM PC business and would hardly be expected to spend a comparable amount for Palm, which holds less market share and brand value. Once burned, twice shy.
HP, on the other hand, really wants to see itself as a significant player in all market segments. They have the technical depth to make good use of Palm technology and their early iPod licensing shows they are somewhat open to lateral thinking when it comes to mobile devices. Now I hope they do something really exciting with Palm’s WebOS.
At this point you’ve probably figured out that there is no dominant theme to this column, which is really a list of random ideas. Most random of all, it seems to me, is word that Google apparently revealed last week at a Mountain View, California planning commission meeting its intention to build housing units on part of its campus in that city. I’m surprised this wasn’t picked-up by the local papers. So in addition to being given free access to unlimited Lucky Charms cereal (the entire basis for Google’s technical success — remember you heard it here first) at least some Google employees will get what might be free (or certainly subsidized) housing.
If work is your life this might even make sense but I would need Google to go just a bit further and agree to regularly wash and groom my two dogs before I’d agree to move in.
This idea of company housing, which is very common in Asia, is not unknown in the U. S.. Apple tried to do it during the first reign of Steve Jobs when the company bought hundreds of acres in the Almaden Valley south of San Jose and proposed to build there a huge live-work development. When Steve left Apple in 1985 the idea left with him and eventually Apple sold the property.
It would be interesting to know if the Steve Jobs of 2010 still thinks his 1985 idea was a good one?
I’m not certain we have enough loyalty between employees & employers for that sort of arrangement work out too well here in the US.
Ahh but corporate housing might be enough of a “golden handcuff” to induce loyalty in employees. How many companies offer snacks, dry cleaning services, lunches, and all the other wonderful perks in addition to vesting programs that aid in worker loyalty? Won’t housing just be the icing on the cake?
No place I’ve ever worked at. Hell, we have to run our own coffee fund at my DOE site. I think all this talk about foozball and free snacks and stuff is just California propaganda.
Re aliens finding us boring and moving on…
Do you have that much faith in humanity that if WE found another civilization that was inferior to us that we’d simply move on? Call me cynical but I think we’d aim to control and “improve” them, whilst simultaneously grabbing any resources that we valued for our own benefit. And if that meant that some (or all) of them died in the process, would we care? Suppose they were the equivalent of ants… maybe more advanced, maybe they speak to each other but basically they’re still ants to us. I’m not suggested we’d kill them out of spite, but if their natural habitat was a source of fuel for us for instance, would we mind if we destroyed them in the process? After all, they’re “only” ants.
Hmmm… maybe I should have more faith in my fellow humans… must try harder.
The ants analogy is not a bad one. The odds are they would be superior to us but the outcome is completely uncertain from completely wiping us out for sport to leaving us a nice pile of sugar (or bowl of milk) just for fun, to completely ignoring us.
When I was a teenager I read a series of short stories/novellas about a future merchant prince when interstellar travel was common. Was the author Poul Anderson? Anyway, one assumption of the series of stories was that any species sufficiently intelligent to achieve a scientific civilization would also necessarily be evolved from a successful predator, and would necessarily be aggressive in the right circumstances. Of course the main premise was that all such beings COULD get along without trying to eat each other, but the possibility was always open. Later on when reading about efforts to contact alien civilizations I felt it was a bad idea.
As Hawkings mentioned. remember the Europeans finding the new world? How’d that work out for the Native Americans. In any case, any race that could travel to our little planet would have the technology to do with us what they will and Jeff Goldblum and Will Smith won’t be able to stop them.
I completely agree with you but should we not have a little more faith here! I mean I have a lot of faith in Will Smith!
If aliens can reach us then they got here two ways:
1) At less than the speed of light. In this case the time involved in getting to earth makes conquest as empire building pointless. It would take 1000 of years to get here and 1000’s to get back (if they are REALLY close by), trade or out right theft isn’t terribly useful in those time delays, unless your life span is 3 or 4 orders of magnitude longer than ours. They might want supplies of some sort, but unless they want to settle on earth we probably have NOTHING they need/want.
2) They possess faster than light technology. Once you can zip around the galaxy faster than light, then you already have access to currently unimaginable energy supplies. You can get raw materials from “dead” planets and dead stars for that matter all over the place. Taking from earth would be like going out of your way to take candy from the baby. They would only do that out of malice.
I think I agree with Cringely on this, but would love to debate it with Hawking.
point one is only true if they care about a home planet or area if the goal to spread far and wide, earth is nice spot to stop put down root and send out more groups like bee colonies.
I think the aliens would take one look at Stephen Hawking, shake their bulbous heads, then move on.
I’m going with what I’m pretty sure was Sagan’s line in Cosmos; any civilisation smart enough to cross the light years to our planet must have evolved beyond the point where belligerence or fear is their prime motivator. They would have access to technology so far in advance ours that travelling such a distance to rob, displace or subjugate us would surely make no sense.
They might regard us as a curiosity, something to be protected from ourselves, or as simply too primitive to bother with, but I seriously doubt they’s be interested in the resources of our unexceptional planet, especially in the light of growing evidence that planetary formation is not exactly a rare thing.
Sorry Hawking, think you’re wrong on this one.
I think you are correct. I would add one more thought. I believe the civilizations at our point of development would be rare. The timing is such that we may be the only ones at this point of development — right at the beginnings of going into space on our own, or not long before Kurzweil’s Singularity. Alien species would have had advanced tech for perhaps millions of years already. So, is it possible that we are being “protected” with something like Star Trek’s prime directive and that we are being observed as a type of scientific project? And no I don’t think UFOlogy nonsense is real at all. If we are being observed, then they are advanced enough to prevent us from observing them.
I tend to agree with the idea behind Fermi’s paradox. (“If they are out there, then where are they? Contact should have been inevitable by now.”) I don’t think they would be uninterested in observing our development, so I think that either we are alone, or we are specimens in a cosmic laboratory–set aside as a cosmic nature preserve.
After reading how gamma ray bursts were more likely in the first half of the universe and how the Solar system is in a relatively quiet part of the galaxy, we may need to revise how soon we think cellular life may have developed in the Milky Way.
Maybe another civilization did find us, but was shocked to find out that we’re nothing but thinking meat (http://bit.ly/3ZOjTD).
HP buying Palm makes sense. HP has no presence in the mobile market, definitely sees that’s the way to go, and has no commitments to any mobile OS platform.
HP probably sees WebOS as more than just a mobile phone platform, and I have a feeling you’ll see WebOS on HP’s Slate computer that Microsoft proudly showed running Windows 7, but HP has yet decided to release.
I thought Dell might be interested. They’ve shown some signs with non-U.S. Android phones, and WebOS would give them a nice platform, but I don’t think Dell ever made the connection.
Lenovo made at least SOME sense. They have no mobile presence and no commitment to any mobile platform, but as Cringely pointed out, they’re a Windows oriented company. Besides, they’re all hardware and aren’t interested in software.
There was talk about Google buying Palm. Why would Google want another Linux based portable operating system with a WebKit browser? There was also talk of Apple buying Palm for its IP. No mentioned of any sort of IP that Palm might actually have that would be useful to Apple.
HTC, another company mentioned, made no sense whatever. They already have a strong Android presence, are Google’s favorite company, and have a whole slew of mobile devices. Why do they need another OS and a bunch of phones that aren’t selling. By the way, HTC is very interested in the Windows 7 Phone platform, and are working on several W7P models. If W7P does take off, HTC will abandon Android.
Actually, I never understood why Google got involved with Android. Despite selling millions of phones, Google hasn’t made a penny on the platform. It’s one of the big disadvantages of an Open Source operating system. You can’t charge a licensing fee — especially since Google doesn’t “own” Android, the Open Handset Alliance does.
Google would have been better working with Apple, Palm, RIM, and even the other Linux based mobile phone operating systems like Bada and Meego to make sure they all have WebKit based browsers, so they can use Google’s application suits. They could have worked on getting Google ads into these applications too much like the iAds platform will allow ads on the iPhone.
Right now, Google has made Apple angry enough that it is actually thinking of cutting a deal with Microsoft. The Open Handset Alliance is not happy with Google’s work on Android either. There have been too many releases which means when you make a phone, it becomes obsolete in a matter of months. Even worse, people are discovering that their six month old Android phone will never be upgraded.
Another issue is that AT&T and Verizon now realize they can lock down the phones they offer once more. In the bad old days, the phone companies only allowed you to visit websites that they got paid for. The phone companies now realize that Android, the “open” OS can be modified and locked down tighter than the iPhone.
AT&T’s Motorola Backflip is missing the Google apps, and can’t download apps outside of the Android Marketplace. Verizon plans to go one further: They want, on future Android phones, to only allow phones to download apps through their VCast market. Verizon makes no money off of Android Marketplace, but they do get a commission from every sale through VCast.
So, where does Google plan to make money on Android? Google cannot guarantee their applications and search are built into the phones. Google could try to come up with its own iAds style platform that Apple is putting into iPhone OS 4.0. However, Google would have to get the Open Handset Alliance permission for that, and there’s no reason why the Alliance would want that. Even if the Alliance does approve, there’s no reason why the IP address of the adserver can’t be changed from Google’s adserver to say Verizon’s adserver. Why let Google have all the fun and profit?
Upvote that link in the beginning. Seems the most likely scenario.
It may seem likely to Sci-fi authors and their fans. However, as an electrical engineer, I see V=IR everywhere. In other words, there is a universality about the universe. So if we are thinking meat, then I would bet the rest of the universe would include a lot of thinking meat as well.
what about thinking galactic clusters or thinking subatomic particles? you’re still thinking like a piece of meat.
Those clusters and particles are still part of the universe. They don’t provide a basis for thinking that “thinking meat” is not universal. In fact we study those particles here on earth to learn about the universe because of our belief in the universality of the universe.
Yeah, I’m replying to my own post. Sue me…
Found this in Electronista today: (http://bit.ly/cLkqMU)
HP killing Windows 7 slate to use Android and webOS?
updated 10:20 am EDT, Fri April 30, 2010
MS may suffer 2nd defeat in tablet wars via HP
HP is about to drop its Windows 7 slate in favor of a better operating system, a major leak may have revealed late Thursday. Despite being championed by Microsoft at the CES 2010 keynote, the slate is reportedly being scrapped because HP doesn’t like Windows 7 as a tablet OS. Instead, it could use Android or or webOS.
The way to compete is to either make money yourself or prevent the other guy from making money on its main cash flow products. With android, Google hampers all vendors who charge for software (Apple, Microsoft, etc). Google charges for the ads so they are safe as long as the software is able to access the web and get to Google.
That move by Google really, *really* calls to mind the 1982 Niven/Pournelle novel “Oath of Fealty”. You might remember it as the novel that popularized the phrase “think of it as evolution in action”. The setting of the novel is supposed to be the first modern and complete “arcology” in California.
California was designed not to be another arcology like New York.
Company housing used to be quite common around mills and mines, whose workers couldn’t afford anything else. Just what sort of Dickensian sweat shop is Google running, anyway?
Google, powered by illegal immigrants?
Yep. The article reads as tough it’s a new concept when in fact there were a lot of companies with, not just company housing, but company towns, created in the past. Some of them quite sizable. The city of Gary Indiana is probably the most recognizable. It was started by I believe US Steel. There are probably dozens of examples of company towns across the country. It’s not a new concept by any means.
Perhaps Google will use the housing development for a campus…geek dorms anyone?
Given the size and age of the universe, I think it is safe to assume that a very wide variety of temperaments, motivations, and ethics are represented in the cosmos. Since we have no evidence of any alien visitations, we can probably conclude the laws of physics just don’t make interstellar space travel practical.
I miss the early days of science fiction when there was still hope for interstellar colonization, but we are likely MUCH better off being isolated.
I remember the line in “Thy Day the Earth Stood Still” where Klaatu says to Bobby Benson “This ship can go over a million miles per hour!”, and the man next to him laughs at him because the idea of a ship reaching a million miles per hour is utterly ridiculous.
Let’s see light travels at 670 million miles per hour, so Klaatu’s ship can only travel at 14% of the speed of light. Our closest neighboring star is four light years away which would take that ship 93 years. If Klaatu is truly a star surfer, his ship has to go a bit faster than a million miles per hour.
It really says something about the vastness of space that no matter how ridiculously fast we dream of traveling, it is still way too slow to travel from one solar system to the next.
Maybe there are alien beings who do want to conquer us and enslave us to work in the atom furnaces or their dilithium crystal mines. They build a vast war fleet, and are about to start off when they realize it’ll take a few thousands years just to get here. Then they say to hell with it and go back watching Bay Watch which transmission signals are just beginning to reach their distant planet.
If Baywatch is reaching their planet they are actually very close, only 20 light years away.
I figure the only way we’ll be able to head to other systems would be robotic probes with in vitro setups, to start growing people and animals, once the ship gets there and finds a decent resource asteroid to anchor to. ‘Course, our robot ship may be an asteroid itself on a 50,000 year journey to nearby stars.
Avatar anyone?
“if we are visited by aliens they’ll probably bring enough firepower to burn our sorry asses.”
lol
[…] Point? by bcs on April 29, 2010 I can’t tell you how much I wish I’d had the guts to write this sentence: At this point you’ve probably figured out that there is no dominant theme to this column, which is…. […]
Google will be able to import H1B workers and give them a place to live nearby so that they can survive on the low wages. Just like Carniegie, Ford, J.P. Morgan and Vanderbilt did at the beginning of the last century. Company housing, company food and company stores. What’s old is new again. How many hours will the workers put in if their homes are just a block or two way.
Wow, we’ve got an eclectic collection of comments!
I don’t think anyone would come all the way to our part of the galaxy just to suck our blood OR steal our women.
There’s a big commentary up above about the mobile landscape that I wish I’d written myself because I generally agree with it.
As for Googleville, the biggest point is that the San Jose Mercury MISSED the story. What’s with that? The next point is that I suspect the housing will be used mainly to cycle foreign workers in and out of Intergalactic Google HQ. Given Google’s emphasis on massive brains, shuffling them on a frequent basis could do a lot to accelerate R&D.
The Googleville story is nothing new; 2 years ago Google announced plans to build housing as part of their NASA Ames campus:
http://sanjose.bizjournals.com/sanjose/stories/2008/06/02/daily46.html
“I don’t think anyone would come all the way to our part of the galaxy just to suck our blood OR steal our women.”
Wait until broadcasts with Christina Hendricks arrive at their systems.
I recall a science fiction story (perhaps from an issue of _Analog_, late 80’s early 90’s?) where a small band of aliens attempted to invade Earth, but the only technology they had better than us was faster than light space travel.
The story ended with the erstwhile conquistadors in prison, shuddering at what they had done by unshackling our civilization from being bound to our one planet.
Just that sort of thought underlies a great deal of the “entertainment” on COAST TO COAST AM WITH GEORGE NOORY. Roswell, “alien technology” and “structures on Mars.” For example:
“…Hass and Saunders suggested that an ET civilization, such as proposed by Zecharia Sitchin, may have visited both Earth and Mars, and left the large art forms on the Martian surface. Their civilization could conceivably still live underground on Mars, they added..:
I think that story was by Harry Turtledove (Road Less Travelled?). Had aliens that looked vaguely like teddy bears with black powder tech and wooden space ships. The trick was that anti-grav and hyperspace travel was really easy to figure out (Newton level of mathematics) and that once a race did this, off they went to pillage and plunder throughout the galaxy. Except for Earth. For some reason, we never figured out this stuff and instead, confined to one planet, kept developing our tech.
Is sorta’ a riff on a story from the 40’s or 50’s (Rescue Mission?) where local galaxy arm Coast Guard realize Earth’s sun is about to explode. They rush in to see if anything’s worth saving, figuring there won’t be much tech development as Earth surveyed just 10,000 years prior and had rudimentary civilization then. Instead, they find high tech world that’s been abandoned, with just a single giant transmitter pointing out in to space, broadcasting collected television signals from cameras all over Earth.
The aliens run for cover as the Sun explodes and later, following the radio beam, they find a giant armada of chemical powered rocket ships heading out in to space. They’re amazed that humans have progressed to that point, when each of the alien races took millions of years to get there. And then one alien wonders if such a vigorous race could be a bad thing. 20 years later, he no longer wonders.
The problem with “evidence” or lack thereof, is that if it contradicts your belief system, you’re either going to deny it or ignore it.
In a former life, I believed myself to be a really nice guy. After enhancing my belief system, the truth was to the contrary. (But with my increased self-control, I have been able to ignore the evidence.)
By the way, there is no point whatsoever in this posting.
The Howard Hughes Medical Institute has a an awesome live-in research center at Janelia Farm, in Loudoun County.
Great facilities, awesome subsidized food, organic steak, and an environment catered to research without grant-seeking, and the interdisciplinary exchange of ideas.
https://www.hhmi.org/janelia/campus.html
Aliens – endless scenarios here all. What if a militant species came across modern tech before they evolved beyond the point where belligerence or fear is their prime motivator? Consider mindless Von Neumann machines that just see us as raw materials? What if they’re just jerks who find it funny to throw rocks at us from afar to see what happens?
No harm in sitting quietly (we should all use cable TV etc to limit the noise) and see what we find out there. If we do find an enlightened elder species, fantastic. If not… 🙁
Why do you say Lenovo overpaid for the IBM PC unit. Please explain?
My contention is that Lenovo’s Beijing senior management and foreign CEO mishandled those benefits and opportunities. Such miscommunication left it frozen. Though now with fully Chinese management the company is emerging stronger.
Furthermore, Lenovo does already have a decently successful mobile phone business in Cn.
Oh my! I was a contractor in that unit for two years. Bob is not exaggerating. :^)
But that is all ancient history buried along with other units, big and small, acquired or homegrown, that have been spun off along the way.
I was thinking: could the GOOGLE dorms project be their version of this following HR trend?
Updated Apr. 27, 2010 at 4:17 p.m.
…
RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, N.C. – IBM (NYSE: IBM) has gone into damage control mode following comments by a Big Blue executive who told a human resources publication that the company could cut 299,000 of its 399,000 jobs over the next seven years in moves to reduce costs.
Tim Ringo, who is the head if the IBM Human Capital Management consultant group, was quoted in Personnel Today as saying the company could use “crowdsourcing” to slash headcount and costs.
…
http://localtechwire.com/business/local_tech_wire/news/blogpost/7495185/
I agree completely with Hawking regarding the Aliens. In our own history, primitive cultures encountering more “developed” ones always got screwed. Aliens with the capability to receive signals from Earth and come check us out aren’t likely not to interfere in some negative way, so why take the risk of trying to contact them?
On the other hand, since travel well above light speed may well be impossible, no one is likely to come here to turn us into hamburger meat…
Actually, good ole’ Walt Disney tried this same scheme — that’s part of what Epcot was supposed to be about. It was to be a fully ecologically independent live/work region for the employees of the Epcot theme park. Disney bought lots of acres of swap to develop into that, too.
Now that Steve works for Disney, maybe he can get a deal on a condo?
Is it me or is Steve Jobs control freak persona over Apple’s products, employees and (yes it filters down to) his customers an ironic hypocrisy to his 1984 commercial? Perhaps that where he even got the idea back in 1985.
Reminds me of an H. Beam Piper story, Hunter Patrol, where a guy who amasses a fortune and builds himself a Xanadu retreat decides that the rest of the world should also be allowed to live in peace and beauty. He then goes on to become world dictator with mind control chemicals that pacify people and make them easily controllable.
(https://www.gutenberg.org/files/18641/18641-h/18641-h.htm)
DURRR! …… does anyone not remember why company towns have not been considered in a positive light?
What is next for google????? ……Coal mining?
I owe my soul to the company stoooooore.
Getting close to Swaine’s Flames.
Regarding this thought
“any civilisation smart enough to cross the light years to our planet must have evolved beyond the point where belligerence or fear is their prime motivator. ”
I think the key word is “evolved.” It is certainly possible that the explorers and exploiters of the galaxy will be fixed entities that aren’t really learning or evolving. Imagine basically self-reproducing robots which scour the galaxy for resources, perhaps metals, from which to produce more of themselves. Unencumbered by consciousness or difficult decision making they would just overrun the galaxy exponentially. Like cancer, the initial seed only has to happen once somewhere in the galaxy….
An important component of this scenario is that the fixed-program robot race never changes its collective or individual mind(s) on their goal of expansion and reproduction. My own civilization has changed its mind several times just within my own short lifetime! and so I imagine all learning or thinking entities might just change their minds at some point also. Since exponentials always win, it looks like we should expect to meet the ruthless harvesting robots as the most likely scenario.
Hawking’s views are xenophobic and paranoid, but that doesn’t mean he’s wrong. Chances are though, that he is. As Joss Whedon and many others have pointed out in other direct ways, you don’t need aliens to be the monsters, some humans like Hitler, Stalin, and others are monsters. My guess is that we are an early race to the Universe if not the galaxy and distances are so vast, and getting vaster due to Dark Energy, that there will be room to grow and thrive for a very long time before we encounter intelligent aliens assuming we don’t do something stupid like kill ourselves by destroying the planetary ecosystem that we are a part of and that we depend on. We don’t even have to destroy the ecosystem, just damage it enough that we are rendered extinct. Geographical isolation by spaceship would likely result in a new species evolving. In other words, Homo terra firma doesn’t know what Homo astralis would be like after either FTL or sublight flight to new habitable worlds. Thus far spaceship Earth is the only home we have. One would hope that we would grow up as a species.
If we trust the artists instead of the engineers, technology is evil and will one day kill us. That’s one meme. The other meme, from the engineers and scientists, is that technology is mostly good and will one day take us to the stars. Knowledge, and thus technology, is amoral, but wisdom is not. Wisdom is very useful knowledge with moral underpinnings. Technological wisdom is likely in still an infant.
Whether HP utilizes Palm and its IP wisely depends upon HP’s corporate culture. HP’s culture isn’t what it used to be since its original founders retired and since the tech landscape has become the land of oligarchs. We’ve seen aerospace, banking, defense, and now IT shrink and consolidate. Each huge company tends to stake out a claim to part of the landscape and ruthlessly defends it against all comers by destroying them or consuming them. So, now we are guessing what the HP gestalt (HP/Compaq/Digital/Convex/Palm) will do after it assimilates (borgs) Palm. What happens when the Borg assimilate a species on Star Trek. That hostile takeover was never seen as a “good” thing on TV (those damn artists again), but again, it depends on the corporate culture.
Google’s corporate housing depends upon whether it’s a benefit or a detriment. If they are having trouble attracting the best talent, then corporate housing may be a perk. Likely it’ll be a good thing if the housing is cheaper than the surrounding area. The problem is whether it would be family friendly, and then there’s the possibility that it could warp into something nasty like the corporate towns that garnished all of the workers’ wages leaving them little more than slaves. The inherent weakness of capitalism is that bad behavior drives good behavior out of the marketplace. If Google has a strong competitor who cheats (Microsoft?), and assuming its oligarch position weakens, likely one day such perks will go the way of all things in the race to the bottom.
“2) Lenovo already over-paid for the IBM PC business ”
I’m puzzled, Bob. At time time of the sale, your column https://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/2004/pulpit_20041209_000835.html (wow, has it been 5+ years?) said Lenovo got a bargain at 20% of annual sales because IBM didn’t want to strengthen a Western competitor and wanted a foothold in China. Why do you consider it overpayment now?
May I suggest everybody read “Where Is Everyone” and then stop speculating about aliens. Unless they are in fact Hungarians, they do not exist. Time is long; if they existed they’d be here by now. Plausibly, intelligent life is a very long shot indeed, and the rare instances of it go extinct real fast. I keep telling you: Intelligence is not a survival trait.
It’s remarkable that of hundreds of analyst responses to HP’s purchase of Palm that I’ve seen, only one mentioned that Todd Bradley, head of the HP division that Palm will be folded into, was previously CEO of Palm itself. Now, this is obviously a plus for HP, since Bradley knows where the bodies are hidden in the company he once ran, but you’d expect analysts to have some opinions on whether Bradley felt he was leaving a sinking ship or was pushed overboard, and how this would affect the prospects for his ability to get Palm underway again from its currently drifting state. Expecting analysts to do research on management capabilities? What was I thinking?
Re killer aliens, read Killing Star by Pellegrino and Zebrowski. A good summary of the thesis that the universe may be bit like a bad Central Park at night where it is best not to wave your flashlight or say “bring it on” ala’ Netscape to MS c. mid 90’s.
Who’s to say aliens wouldn’t see us as useful slaves for some task their bodies weren’t fit for, they may have technology, but we may be cheaper for local colonization.
I think it more likely that they see this as a wonderful place to vacation, a sort of exotic wild life preserve and that we are a danger to the other forms of wildlife. They could see it fit to thin our populations for the balance of nature, similar to the feelings of modern deer hunters.
Housing: whatever image “company housing” conjures up, I would expect that Google would offer a highly aesthetic, green and socially aware solution. If they think big enough, it could in fact be a revolutionary model for planned communities everywhere, or a dismal, Soviet era Levittown.
Aliens: if one ascribes to the thesis that our own origins are DNA planted here by some extraterrestrial passerbys long ago, then their return visit would be a family reunion. And we all now what a nightmare those can be.
HP is viewing its acquistion of Palm in a much broader business light than I think a number of industry analsyts are getting. By having Palm, they can offer a tablet and smart phone for business that helps drive: a) Their vertical market efforts (e.g. healthcare) which MS and others can’t easily copy. b) Sales of other products (e.g. special printers for hand-helds or healthcare orders/prescriptions; storage for data collected/created/distributed by hand-helds). Its a smart by HP and IMHO HP is the only one who can really exploit/optimize the technology. Dell, Lenovo et al are just Microsoft lackeys who don’t get it.
As for Aliens….. ET stay home…. watch the crap re-runs we streaming to you and thank your lucky stars that you’re not having to meet and deal with the governments of China, France, England, Iran, N. Korea, Nigeria, and Thailand.
On-campus housing… very smart of Google if it works…. The entire environment could be setup as a QA Lab for Google products so people living there would still be working even when they aren’t working..
Or the government of the United States.
Do you consider state sanctioned a) illegal foreign hidden prisons, d) torture, c) murder contracts on its citizens, d) illegal spying on its citizens’ telecommunications, among others, behaviour of an enlightened state?
“They’re Made of Meat” has actually been made into a movie …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gaFZTAOb7IE
Quite charming and creepy!
It boggles the mind that it is already 25 years ago that Steve Jobs left Apple.
I have to side with Cringley on the alien thing. If an alien race became advanced enough to visit other life holding planets, like ours, you would think they would have matured enough to leave us alone or make some kind of intelligent contact without destroy, enslaving, or generally burning our asses.
I would like in on PBs debate with Hawking.
Company housing was tried in Kohler, Wisconsin and failed miserably. Mr. Kohler thought he was doing a good thing by supplying his employees with housing but the urge to own one’s home derailed the grand experiment. What if the economy went sour and the company needed to lay you off? Does that mean you are also homeless?
Per Hawking’s paranoia, two points:
1) Earth has been giving off its spectroscopic signature of nitrogen, oxygen, water, CO2, methane, etc. for about 500 million years. If any galactic race had been looking for a planet that would harbor life, they would have found it, us, eons ago. Humans have been looking for a mirror signature of Earth for about 30 years. We’ve found many extra solar planets and will one day find one that is similar to our own. That how you find second home planets, through spectroscopy
2) In the event that within the last 500 million years Earth had been identified as a potential life sustaining planet, it, in all likelihood, would have already been exploited as such.
Domination by ETs, had it been possible, even probable, would have happened already. Hawking is late to the game here.
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It's funny seeing all the idiots condemning Stephen Hawking for stating the truth…
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Isn’t the 1st commenter telling the real truth or what??
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You are very lucky to meet Sir Stephen Hawking. He has brilliant mind! You all should read his book “A Brief History of Time”.
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I have to say , not everything is humanly possible! So perhaps we will never meet a alien in our whole life.
Great article, You’ve just gotta love the Hawk!!
Gravity requires physical mass to exist. The laws of gravity come from our understanding of our own universe. But if nothing in our universe had physical mass, than gravity, for all intents and purposes, wouldn’t exist. Therefore if our universe was not yet in existence, gravity would not yet exist to contribute to the creation of the universe.
If his point about God not being needed was referring to gravity affecting the original matter of the universe which “banged”, that’s a different case, since mass would exist at that point. But if that’s what he was talking about, his comment would be irrelevant for the simple–fact that it does nothing to explain how that original matter could have come into being. He wouldn’t be talking about the creation of the universe, he’d be talking about how the universe came to be in it’s current state.
I don’t believe the universe was created by a deity, but neither do I reject the possibility. No one, not even Stephen Hawking, can explain how the matter that became the universe could have originally come about.
Sir Stephen Hawking is one in a million.
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Yes Mr. Hawking has lived quite a life its true – but as many have said his fame has overshadowed the fact that there are more brilliant minds – not that it should be a competition – though these things always come down to that.
interesting writeup, i’ve got to mention this to a friend of mine
Steven Hawkin I find is usually correct in most of his theories. The fact that aliens are out there (well, its not fact… yet) is something widely accepted amongst astrologers and if correct, the fact that they could be hostile is something that cant be ignored. Scientists are looking towards the telescopes used to monitor asteroids as tools that could be used as protection for the human race. Protection as in saving the world, not as in condoms! 🙂 Either way, its a topic I dont see going away.
Especially not with Hawkins promoting it!
Really nice. Steven Hawkin always offer great theories.
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I think Steven with all those bunnies is real torchure!
Steven’s right, however I think there are far greater minds out there than him…
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I walked into a horse once, it was not as good as walking into Stephen Hawking though I imagine
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Nice picture of Stephen and I am sure that he is having a great time being surround by such beauties.
i’m jeaolus of him actually.
Stephen Hawking: ‘There is no heaven; it’s a fairy story’
Is that sure there isn’t heaven? Ah ~ just . I believe in my religion there’s heaven
Steve is the man!
steve…admire him so much
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